Sunday, March 29, 2020

29 March - Jo Nova

JoNova: Science, carbon, climate and tax

Masks do help, even (maybe) stopping 75% of influenza, and you can make them
In the West the public have been discouraged from wearing face masks, and told they aren’t much help. This is mostly because they are “much help” and the front line docs and nurses really need them but no one in charge ordered enough in advance, and none of them had the honesty to say so. The daft push-me-pull-you messaging of how the useless masks are needed on the front line will go down as a c
If you only read one serious page about how to deal with this crisis read Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance. The countries that “get this” approach will be the first to recover. It’s all the things I’ve been suggesting but done on big scale with an expert team. What I call the Slow Bleed is officially known as Mitigation. It’s the 6 month Flu strategy that kills people and the economy. When I
Anyone know where Pat is? We miss him, hope he is OK. Rating: 8.8/10 (4 votes cast) Rating: 8.8/ 10 (4 votes cast)

Yesterday

Apparently no one listened to him. The thing we were always afraid of was a virus that people could shed even if they felt well enough to get on a plane… He’s right about “the blood of survivors” – blood contains antibodies to the virus after they recover. So plasma from survivors might help current victims. And that trial will happen in New York. But we don’t need a “global heath system”. We hav
Be wary of reports that the new Imperial College modeling on Coronavirus has downgraded the threat. With headlines like these (below), you could be forgiven for thinking Coronavirus posed less of a problem. The updated model talked of UK deaths being “only” 20,000, not 500,000, but because they were modeling two totally different scenarios. The update assumed that drastic action had started. The

Mar 27

Looking for something to do for 14 days? A light moment thanks to Willie and whoever the extraordinary Joseph is. Rating: 9.9/10 (24 votes cast) Rating: 9.9/ 10 (24 votes cast)
Asleep at the wheel. The Lucky Country wakes up to the cost of globalization. There are only 3,000 Covid cases here, we have barely begun, yet we’re already running out of protective gear. The lives of our doctors and nurses are at risk because bureaucrats were too slow to see the obvious, blindly unaware of foreign allegiances, and they kept using the old Influenza plan when this wasn’t influenz

Mar 26

Where did Thursday go? Rating: 10.0/10 (6 votes cast) Rating: 10.0/ 10 (6 votes cast)

Mar 25

Option three gathers wings Finally the world is tossing out the pointless old Influenza Pandemic plan that called for six months of slow bleeding. Leaders are waking up to the high speed, hard and fast option. Tonight 20% of the worlds population are crushing that curve with a full lockdown because it’s the only option. 1.3 billion people in India are now in a three week home quarantine, joining F
A High Stakes Game If the trials of the anti-malarial chloroquine (or variants) work, Trump will get away with all the understatements he said in February. On twitter the combination of Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin are known as #TrumpPills. The trials started Tuesday. We don’t know the results but doctors are buying up pharmacy stocks across the US — presumably to protect themselves (hopefu

Mar 24

Message to the young and immortal A fully fit 28 year old who ran marathons tells what it was like for him to get Coronavirus. He ended up spending 13 days in ICU. His ongoing liver problems and weakness will take a month or two to get better. His message to young people out at parties or on the beach: ” You might survive, but the old person that didn’t get that ventilator might not…” But the spr

Mar 23

…. Rating: 7.3/10 (12 votes cast) Rating: 7.3/ 10 (12 votes cast)
For most people Coronavirus is like the flu or even a cold, but for 20% it’s something awful. Even in younger patients — a few seemingly fit and healthy 40 and 50 year olds are gasping for air as their lungs fill with blood and fluid and it’s “like a near death drowning” or “inhaling caustic gas”. Forgive the language in the headline — those were this docs exact words. He’s working at a New Orlea

Mar 22

Look at State by State outcomes: visit Covid Act Now Its an excellent display of modeled outcomes across the US*. Click on each state in the US to find out predicted death tolls and the day hospitals will be overwhelmed with too little action. Dear readers, get out of the way of this virus. My advice is to stay home. Order online. Wear masks if you have to venture out. Keep kids home from school.
I believe there are other things happening in the world still. Rating: 10.0/10 (7 votes cast) Rating: 10.0/ 10 (7 votes cast)
The wave coming is not just a “bit bigger” than hospitals can handle Western Australian specialists estimate that at present rate, in 45 days Coronavirus cases will fill up their entire state hospital system. Two weeks later Covid patients will also fill all the beds in the extra two copies of their entire state hospital network that haven’t been built yet. Hospitals will need 20 times as many ve

Mar 21

The first epicentre in Italy was VĂ², a little town of 3,000. It was shut down, fully tested and twice and nine days apart. By testing, isolating, and tracking, they reduced the spread to almost nothing, and this is despite the extraordinary discovery that when the first death happened, already 3% of the town had the disease. At that point surely the Italian government should have immediately clos
Traitors to the people? Some in the Republican Party knew what was coming. At least four Senators in the US are being accused of insider trading, selling stocks before the crash, but not warning the public or making sure the US was prepared. Senator Richard Burr sold something like a million dollars in their own stocks on Feb 13th. At private briefings his message was that this virus was aggressiv

Mar 20

… Rating: 9.0/10 (8 votes cast) Rating: 9.0/ 10 (8 votes cast)
Remember back in February when the mainstream media was telling us this was “just like the flu”? They weren’t asking the Health Minister “how many Australians might die” or “why don’t we close the borders”. They didn’t want to know whether the PM had calculated the cost of leaving the borders open? They weren’t estimating how many weeks it would be before we ran out of ICU beds. Nor were they dem
Australian Medical Association WA President Andrew Miller said Western Australia was headed for a situation like Italy and are 8 – 10 days behind Sydney. The tally in Australia is now about 900, the same as Italy had on Feb 28th, just three weeks ago. Now Italy has 41,000 cases and 3,405 people have died. Their population is three times larger than Australia and slightly older, it’s colder and pa

Mar 19

There is a third way — Why are we so fatalistic? It’s not a choice between Let It Rip and the slow bleed of “Flatten the Curve”. It’s not a choice of health versus money. The third option no one is mentioning is to Crush The Curve: we go hard, fast, and do a major short sharp quarantine. It’s not radical, it’s just textbook epidemiology, it saves more lives and it saves the economy too. SlowMo, Bo

Mar 18

I’ve said from the start that anti-virals were always going to be more useful to us this year than vaccines, which take so long to test and be ready for use. What we really need are anti-virals which also happen to be preapproved and tested and hopefully in mass production. Chloroquine is cheap too, though I doubt Australian stocks of the drug are very high, or that our genius rulers have arrange

Mar 17

Oops. Forgot Tuesday. Sorry. Rating: 9.3/10 (7 votes cast) Rating: 9.3/ 10 (7 votes cast)
Australia has only one mask factory, and the Army was only sent in yesterday to start helping to ramp up production? Six weeks after this disaster was obvious to bloggers-watching-twitter-feeds, the entirely predictable shortage of masks is only just starting to be addressed? Why weren’t they doing this a month ago? Australian Defence Force soldiers have been deployed to help Australia’s only mas
Dithering politicians push the fatality from 0.5% toward 5% A gritty analysis by Tomas Pueyo shows how leaders inertia is killing people every day. Some of the victims of tomorrows Virus Get-Togethers won’t die for a few weeks, but the next batch starts tomorrow (and every day until the nation self-isolates, stops the pox-parties, the cough-shopping, and pneumonia-planes. ). And each day there are

Mar 16

I seem to have the uncanny ability to predict what frontline experts will recommend days in advance. It’s not genius. Just medical training and that the solution to this is so Bleeding Obvious, and politicians are still 2 to 3 weeks behind an exploding epidemic of an inanimate nucleic acid code. WA hospitals call for state border closures to deal with coronavirus fears (COVID-19) Top doctors acro
Scuttlebutt that crossed my desk today says “”US to have nationwide quarantine for 14 days’”. h/t Scott. I hope this is correct. My reply:”Brilliant”. Finally, a hint of an attitude determined to beat this. It’s so refreshing after all the defeatist fatalism telling us this is a disease we have to have. I predict if the US does this, other countries will follow. This is the fastest way to get bor

Mar 14

BREAKING NEWS: Since writing this Scott Morrison has finally moved to quarantine all arrivals including planes and ships. He’s still two weeks behind the virus, and playing catch up with Jacinta Ardern, the real leader. But finally the bleeding obvious has dawned. He won’t close schools, and perhaps, suddenly that will now be a viable option, though Sydney still need short sharp major action to s
… Rating: 8.2/10 (6 votes cast) Rating: 8.2/ 10 (6 votes cast)

Mar 13

Finally, some action happening around the world. Australia has banned gatherings over 500, but for some reason gatherings of 1500 small humans on a daily basis are still fine. Admittedly short humans (of the young sort) don’t get as deadly sick, but they still spread it, and generally go back each day to houses with people who are at risk. Homeschooling is now on an exponential growth, and it isn

Mar 12

… Rating: 8.6/10 (15 votes cast) Rating: 8.6/ 10 (15 votes cast)

Mar 11

… Do young adults learn anything that matters in school? They’re protesting in the streets but can’t even answer the most baby-basic questions about energy or their pet molecule “CO2″. It’s almost like carbon dioxide is totally irrelevant? Teachers don’t care. Kids don’t care. Media don’t care, and when they all grow up the adults won’t care either. More than 72% of Gen Z ‘don’t know nuclear powe
Moving at sedimentary-rock speed, the Australian government has finally put a ban on flights from Italy effective at 6pm, and only ten days too late. On the 28th of February Italy had 1700 cases and infections were growing at 30% a day. At that point it was obvious where the numbers were headed. Today France, Spain and Germany are where Italy was then. How many infections will we fly in before we

Mar 10

Here’s one for all the history-deniers from 1885 Mr N Bartley understood Australias climate 134 years ago better than some climate scientists appear to now. After the fire came the floods, Feb 2020. Even then Australia already had a century-long rolling cycle of floods, fires and droughts. One natural disaster after another back when CO2 levels were perfect. These go back to the earliest dates of
.. Rating: 7.4/10 (17 votes cast) Rating: 7.4/ 10 (17 votes cast)

Mar 09

And so it begins. Suddenly there are no more weddings for a quarter of Italy. No more movies, pubs, dance halls or trains to some parts of the country either. Italy is about to overtake South Korea for the number two spot on the list no country wants to lead, unless Iran beats Italy to it (which it almost certainly has already). Today 16 million Italians are not free to go about their business, o

Mar 07

Watching South Korea — it appears to have stopped the exponential spread of Coronavirus Heartening. At its peaks last Saturday and Tuesday, South Korea acquired 800 new infections per day. Since then, whatever it is doing, South Korea has managed to keep the new daily cases between 300-800. That may not sound like much, but in exponential terms it could have been a lot worse. Is this the future fo
Who needs studies? CSIRO doesn’t need any evidence to tell Australians how things work Senator Matt Canavan asks Dr Peter Mayfield of CSIRO why an explainer document they put out about the bushfires didn’t include a sentence he found in another CSIRO study. “No studies explicitly attributing the Australian increase in fire weather to climate change have been performed at this time.” A record brea
With a big hello and best wishes to long time commenter Roy Hogue who’s in hospital and we hope is improving fast. We miss you Roy. (Not CoronaVirus) Rating: 9.4/10 (14 votes cast) Rating: 9.4/ 10 (14 votes cast)
The evidence is overwhelming but the names of 85 unconvinced experts threatens the Earth. Shield your eyes, sinner, lest ye faith be tested! … The Religion of Carbonoid-Weather-Control is so fragile, and Wikipedia so captured by philosophical fruit flies, that 35 editors voted down 19 other editors and now The List does not exist. Thus do 35 editors keep safe the minds of Wikipedia babes who might
Sobering This 25 year old British man caught the virus in Wuhan on November 25. He must have been one of the earliest cases, and it was only recognised belatedly that he had Coronavirus. Twice, he thought he was well, only to relapse. But he does recover. I suspect this is the rarer “severe” type case in an otherwise healthy young man. Theoretically 80% of people get the easier five day version a
If solar power and batteries were a winner anywhere, we’d hope it would be in remote Australian communities. But a cyclone clouded over Central-Australia for a few days and the batteries ran out. People had no money, no phone and no landline either. To boot, the rain flooded the roads, so people were cut off in every sense. Welcome to Renewable World: Telstra says the stations that provide landli

Mar 06

The irony: while Australia blocks fruit flies, China blocks deadly viruses How long before China bans flights from the US, UK and Australia? Count the days… Coronavirus: China orders travellers quarantined amid outbreak [BBC] Travellers from countries with severe coronavirus outbreaks who arrive in some parts of China will have to undergo a 14-day quarantine, state media say. Travellers from the v

Mar 05

The Tasmanian Government has just announced they will be “200% renewable” by 2040 — a feat only possible because they have an umbilical cord to hostages in the mainland who have to pay for irrelevant surges in electricity that arrive when they don’t need it. The same hostages will send back fossil powered electricity every week to keep Tasmania running when the wind and sun stop and the water is
Leading the pack, at about number 92, Australia bans flights from South Korea South Korea added to Australia’s coronavirus travel ban list, restrictions for travellers from Italy [ABC News] The Federal Government has expanded its coronavirus travel ban to include South Korea, and added additional precautions for travellers from Italy, amid fears about the spread of the disease. The revised bans w
… Rating: 9.1/10 (11 votes cast) Rating: 9.1/ 10 (11 votes cast)

Mar 04

In a word: bum. WHO announced their estimates of 3.4% global mortality today. All the caveats apply — it includes rubbery-figures-from-China and comes from the Useless UN and a group headed by a star apologist-for-Xi. But here’s the thing, look at the numbers outside China (see the big table below), and its a similar ballpark. Sorry to rant on about this virus. The World Health Organization had sa

Mar 03

In the new pandemic era with a global social media, people are not waiting for governments to tell them travel is risky. According to IATA’s press release, airlines are experiencing serious declines in demand: A carrier 26% reduction across their entire operation in comparison to last year. A hub carrier reporting bookings to Italy down 108% as bookings collapse to zero and refunds grow. Many car
… Rating: 8.3/10 (13 votes cast) Rating: 8.3/ 10 (13 votes cast)

Mar 02

It’s too expensive to close borders, they say, but who can afford to import this virus? Should we stop holidays and conferences, or most of the economy? The monthly PMI figures show that in February about four fifths of China’s economy was shut down. Locking people in apartments and hospitals being not very productive. Strangely, all the economists watching the mainstream news and official Chinese

Feb 29

Fun subject of the day: How Coronavirus kills No seriously, this is matter-of-fact, youtube-at-its-best, concise, cartoony, and smart. Think of doctors as Body-Engineers. The problem to solve today Engineer-readers — is how to keep blood supply oxygenated when lungs are highly inflamed, filling with fluid, and the delicate thin membranes of lung tissue can’t cope with the sheer forces of rapid col
… Rating: 9.1/10 (22 votes cast) Rating: 9.1/ 10 (22 votes cast)

Feb 28

Amazing. Sinbad reports on the situation in Iran. He is a commenter here who speaks the language. I can’t confirm this except to say that #Coronavirusupdates Iran looks like everything he is describing. Officially there are only 388 cases and 34 deaths. But on twitter, just like China, censorship and denial and so much more. Mass graves. Corrupt officials. Mass spraying of the streets. But if the
Overnight, people woke up to the real threat and markets crashed appropriately. Unless we take massive action immediately, the exponential curve is about to lift off. And if we don’t act now then massive action is coming anyway in a month, along with major disruption, pandemonium, and worse. There are now 5,300 cases outside China. If it doubles every 5 days (as it just has) then 40 days from now
The non-binding unenforceable Paris agreement was always a theatre show on the international stage, where most countries promise to do nothing, and the rest make promises they don’t keep. But it’s an excuse for the domestic Deep 

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