Sunday, December 25, 2016

25 December - Netvibes ( 3 of 3 )


A Bridge of Golden Sighs - by Soren Dreier The Bridge of Golden Sighs is a real place in the metaphysical heart. We often forget, when we talk about being in the heart, that when we are, the Heart is not a ‘fixed’ destination. We enter the realms of the heart and as we journey our way through it, we touch upon a kaleidoscope of different realms with different qualities. Many tests are to be taken, many inside battles to be fought still. I often touch upon those; the latest in: The Gap Called Despair. One of the challenges we will encounter is passing the Bridge of Golden Sighs. It does not cross a gap. Beneath the Bridge is nothing but softness, forgiveness of ourselves, and the ability to carry on when we fall off. Defeat is not an option here, only the pure and crystal clear knowing that: In order to master it, we have to practice. For some it takes a lifetime to cross, for others it is a bit easier. We might have continued this journey on the account of prior lives passed by. The Bridge of Golden Sighs is way beyond the Bridge of Forgiveness of others. And yet, still there would be reminiscences of that. As said before, the Matrix of forgiveness is: Stop blaming others, and you won’t have to forgive. That is obviously also stepping out of victimhood. These bridges are also a landmark as to leaving the Matrix of control and getting free of its programming. It is the vortex, the fork in the road for each soul stepping out of the emotional programming that we are so obviously or subtly exposed too. This is where you decide to plug into emotions, both your own and the emotional expectations and thereby control of others. I touched upon that in: The Silent Treatment. The idea is to cause you to feel insecure, lesser of a being, in confusion about what you did wrong. When you are exposed to that, rest assured that you did nothing wrong. The owner of that emotion is the person trying to play you. Like: The Buddha and The Gift, “When anger comes knocking – you deny delivery.” Society wants you to feel bad about everything. When you in fact have your stuff together, they post fake pictures of children suffering in Syria in order to play your emotions their way. Deny delivery. If you see a child suffering on your way to the grocery shop – deliver your empathy. Only when we step out of emotion are we in our own mind and not the mind of others. When we pass these realms we are free to pick up any emotion we would like, to reclaim it and let it out. It is the Heart of the Warrior, Social Indignation, for the people and circumstances that you feel are right for you to interact with on a higher emotional level than you have ever done before. What you have learned, by crossing these bridges, is that you are in charge, you did not go cold, you are now in a situation where you master your emotions. It is called Intelligent Love. [More…]   04:27
Are We Humans Terminally Insane or Just Waking Up? - by Paul Levy “The world today hangs by a thin thread, and that thread is the psyche of man.”   – C. G. Jung How does anyone possibly express in words the state of collective madness that humanity has fallen into at this time in our history? As if in a hypnotic trance, our species is enacting a mass ritual suicide on a global scale, rushing as fast as we can towards our own self-destruction. We are destroying the biospheric life-support systems of the planet in so many different ways that it is as if we are determined to make this suicide attempt work—using a variety of methods as a perverse insurance policy, in case a couple of them don’t do the job. What modern-day humanity is confronted with, to quote the author and Trappist monk Thomas Merton, is “a crisis of sanity first of all.” In trying to find a way to write about this state of affairs, I find myself going “off-planet,” imagining what it would look like if some enlightened aliens, in their travels throughout the universe, came upon our planet. Observing from a distance, they would naturally see all the various living beings who call planet earth home as related members of one larger organism—a single eco-system—who literally depend upon each other for survival. From this vantage point, I imagine, they would be utterly baffled at why human beings—the seemingly most intelligent species ever to appear on planet earth—are acting out their destructive impulses practically without restraint in every corner of the globe. Contemplating the state of humanity, I imagine these awakened beings wondering, “What in the world has gotten into them?” I imagine these illumined aliens, in agreement with Merton, would quickly conclude that human beings had become afflicted with some sort of psychological illness, a disease of the mind and soul that has caused us to turn on ourselves in self-and-other destruction.Apparently in a “fallen state,” we have lost our way, become disoriented, and, in our confusion, become quite deranged. It is as if our collective madness is so overwhelming—and by now so familiar and so normalized—that most of us, its sufferers, have no idea how to even think about it, let alone how to deal with it. Not knowing what to do, many of us inwardly dissociate—which only exacerbates the collective madness—and in our fragmented and disempowered state go about our lives in a numbed-out, zombie-like trance, making the best of what seems to be a bad situation. The question naturally arises: how would these enlightened beings conspire with us to help wake us up? We can only imagine. For our part, it seems essential that we ask questions such as: what is the nature of this madness, and how can it be consciously engaged so that humanity can get back on the right track? Seen as an organism, there is a systemic psycho-spiritual disease that has infected the whole body politic of humanity. At present we are having an acute—and potentially deadly—inflammation of this illness. As with any disease, in order to cure the pathology that ails us we must come up with the right diagnosis. Under the present circumstances, it is a healthy response for us to have an appropriate level of alarm. If we aren’t “alarmed” at what is happening in our world, we are still sleeping. ECONOMY It’s difficult to appreciate how our behavior might appear strange—let alone completely insane—to an impartial observer. But engaging in a “benign onlooker” thought experiment—in this case, through the imagined insights of enlightened aliens—affords us some much-needed perspective. Even from this vantage point, though, the collective madness that humanity is acting out is hard to fathom. It is truly as if the inmates are running the asylum. The first thing these aliens might perceive is a single living organism in crisis. What makes life itself possible is that every cell and organ of a living organism plays a uniquely vital role to the life and health of the greater organism; each part works together as part of an integrated and interdependent whole system. Our planet and its biosphere is a seamlessly interconnected whole system that operates as a macro-organism, and yet its supposedly most intelligent species has set up a global system for managing its rich diversity of natural resources that would kill a living organism in no time if such a system were implemented within the individual bodies of any of its members. If the human body was organ-ized and operated in a similar way to the global economy—where certain parts of the system demand disproportionate and ever-increasing shares of the existing resources—the body would die in no time. At the heart of this reality is the fact that the way the global economic system has been crafted primarily serves the interests of the very few. Machine-like, “the system” relentlessly, and increasingly, sucks, drains and redistributes wealth from the majority of the populace—who more and more become impoverished and practically enslaved—into the hands of the already unthinkably wealthy. The powers-that-be then use coercive power to not only deny people the means to make even a subsistence living, but even denies them the basic human right to life on massive scales. This system doesn’t just passively allow people to fall below the poverty line, it actively pushes them under, as if poor people are being intentionally “left behind.” The most powerful and successful financial institutions have taken on the form of parasitic enterprises that have attached themselves to governments and people around the world, upon which they shamelessly and ravenously engorge themselves. These illumined aliens, with their clairvoyant vision, would surely find it revealing that the ones who own the wealth are—like vampires—energetically “feeding” off of the ones who barely have enough to eat. [More…]   04:23
Applied Epigenetics: The Art and Science of DNA Activation, Healing & Repair - The Foundations of Epigenetic DNA Activation: Life is Energy Einstein, Tesla, and the science of quantum physics have shown us that the fabric of the Universe is composed of vibrational strings expressed as energy. Every single cell and organ system, as well as our entire physical body, is encompassed and surrounded by its own individual energy field. The basis of every state of mind and matter, including conditions of disease or health, is their primary state of vibration. Therefore, the very life we live is a reflection of our own vibrational essence. We are the creative force in the unfolding story of our journey. Our world as we embark upon it now, is filled with higher consciousness and vibrational frequencies that will only be supporting our highest potential. In 1953, scientific research reported by James Watson and Francis Crick captured the attention and imagination of our modern civilization. Their studies on the nature of DNA, the blueprints for the structure of our cells, created the belief that genes control biology, the foundation upon which modern medicine is built. This belief evolved into the concept known as genetic determinism, the notion that our physical and behavioral fates are encoded in the genes and that we are helpless victims of genetics. “The basis of every state of mind and matter, including conditions of disease or health, is their primary state of vibration.” One of the biggest intellectual roadblocks to overcome in healing ourselves and initiating the process of DNA activation, or even understanding the Universe fully, is based on this assumption: our genes determine our reality or the likelihood our lives and health will follow a predetermined path. Epigenetics and Beyond The latest breakthrough research in cell biology and quantum physics, according to cellular biologist Bruce Lipton, Ph.D., shows that our genes and DNA are activated and influenced by signals from outside the cell membrane. This pioneering research in the field of vibrational medicine is known as the science of epigenetics. Epigenetics studies show how forces operating outside the DNA sequence, including extracellular, environmental and energetic influences affect the development, functioning and evolution of biological systems. The science of epigenetics lies in tracing the signal outside the cell back to its origins. It looks for the energy flow that causes the DNA blueprint to activate a particular pattern, the driving force behind the way our DNA activates and expresses itself. “Epi” implies traits that are above, in addition to, or on top of the cell membrane. “Genetics” pertains to the DNA in the nucleus, the library of blueprints, which is found inside of each living organism or individual cell. Therefore epigenetics means control or influence of DNA from above or outside the gene. [More…]   04:14
Cannabinoids Heal the Body - by Wes Annac, Contributor | Waking Times If this were the 60s or 70s and you told someone you were using cannabis for pain relief or to treat an illness, you might get a funny look. Today, however, countless legitimate medicinal uses have been discovered for the plant. It’s finally receiving positive attention from a society that’s condemned it for nearly a century. “Regular” people are standing up for cannabis, unafraid of the consequences imposed by an unfair system. Rather than continue to condemn it, people are openly exploring and sharing information about its benefits. Even doctors are speaking out about it. In an effort to support the revolutionary work being done in the field of cannabis-based medicine, I’ve compiled some of the most prominent information concerning the plant’s health benefits. It seems to have been created for the explicit purpose of helping the human body. Since the floodgates have been opened for extensive research into it (though not as extensive as if it were legalized worldwide), we in this era will be fortunate enough to learn almost everything it can do. More people than ever will learn about the ways it can heal the body, and a sea change in the way we see it will follow. Cannabinoids in Cannabis Mimic the Body’s Endocannabinoids   Nishi Whiteley writes that cannabis helps various ailments because of the “active pharmacological components” in the plant that mimic the body’s endocannabinoid system, which is described as an “internal chemical harm reduction system”. (1)   [More…]   03:59
No Experience is True - by Brian Thompson No experience is true, but that which all experiences appear within is. As soon as it is sensed, cognized, and perceived, it is gone. Every experience is an illusion; an elusive mirage created by the mind. No experience has an independent truth all of its own. Every experience only seems to exist because of you, because you lend your reality to its false appearance. Only awareness is true. How else could an “experience” be known? Only Presence exists, which is this present moment Beingness in which all knowing appears. You are this Presence, here and now—and there is nothing apart from this Presence, this knowingness, this awareness that permeates your entire being. And so, all that is exists within you. Outside of here and now, what could be real? Only this moment is verifiable and true, to you. Everything else is a concept. Whatever appears will always disappear. All manner of appearances, which every experience, sensation, and perception ultimately are, are false. They are entirely unreliable—they do not exist whatsoever. The only “thing” unchanging in life is awareness itself—and this is self-evident when you investigate the continuity of your being. Your awareness has never altered. In fact, it is not “yours” at all—it just Is. It is the suchness of your Self. Inquire into your own direct experience and realize this to be true. Awareness has always been there in every moment of your life; alert, forever unchanging, and accepting of everything that appears within it. Awareness is infinitely empty, which is why it seems to be so full. Just like a window, everything is sensed only within its open space. All else, aside from this presence of awareness that you are, is an illusion. Everything else is an emanation from the mind, which itself is merely an appearance—or rather, an experience—an illusion within the infinite consciousness of your Self. You experience the mind, but you are not it. You experience the body, but you are not it. You experience the world, but you are not it. How can any of these possibly be real? They may be a “fact”, but facts are never the ultimate reality. A fact is just a concept conceived from a prior experience, taken from a singular moment which the mind has freeze-framed into a virtual tidbit of knowledge, which it assumes to be ever-present, unchanging, and real—but a fact is not Now. Only Now is true, and you are That. [More…]   23 Dec
Stretching Happy - by Soren Dreier Let’s face it – not too many people in the “I’m happy” department of self development actually are. That is why they are there. To find it. The holiday season shows up, and some complain about transportation, about the company of family, about the food, about the whole scenario. Well – stay put Dolores. Do not move an inch. Create that Happy on your own terms and according to your needs. It is still the Ego interfering, but it’s also something deeper, and something cultural. I’ve never advocated the total take down of all Ego issues, since in times where you fight for your physical or spiritual survival there still are some very good things in the high frequency department of the Ego, which I refer to as: Character/Personality. The cultural part that makes some stay put in self-pity and an overcomplicated idea of themselves is the programming via the media. Number one: good news rarely stands alone if it’s even there. In movies and TV series, the actors find a high frequency moment of love, good things, a promotion, and are basically allowed by the screenwriter (the Screenwriter is the Old Testament God of the People that he brought to life) to stay in that for less than 5 minutes and then calamity sets in and the characters are suddenly caught in some kind of disaster. If your reality is such that when good stuff happens to you, you would expect some bad stuff to happen, you plugged into that programming and an idea could be to dissolve it. Then there’s the spiritual collective. Most of us are brought up in a Christian society and still carry the programming around that life is basically tormenting and based on suffering and by going through the pain of that, we get to sit by Jesus’ right side in Heaven. Underlying programming: “You won’t be that happy in this life, and if you are, you should really feel bad about it since Jesus died on the Cross for you.” It’s the thick guilt of the Christian church, where the Catholic business model made a cash register for redemption and now an app for confessing your sins. If anyone really wants to take that hoax seriously they are more than welcome. It’s impossible to find sense in that so that would be the big ticket to: I’m a sinner so I do not deserve to be happy. [More…]   23 Dec
Why Do We Exist? Better Yet, Why Does Anything Exist? - By Dylan Harper Have you ever thought about the question “why do we exist?” If you are interested in this question like me, I’d like to share my perspective with you. Take my perspective for what it is, which is simply the answer I have received on my path. This perspective may be relevant to you, or not, but to me this is how I have made sense of this question in my mind. Why we exist Why do we exist? We exist because we have to exist. You exist because you MUST exist and I exist because I MUST exist. Why MUST we exist? Because everything that ever could exist must exist. That’s why. You are something that could exist. Therefore, you must exist. Let me explain my logic Back when I was a small child of about 6 or 7 years old, I remember playing on the playground of my parent’s apartment complex one day in the snow. It was a bright and shiny day, and I was having fun with my friends. One of the kids came up to me and asked “do you believe in God?” I’d never really thought about the question before, so I sat there puzzled for a moment. Wanting to give my friend an answer, but not knowing what to say I cocked my head to the side, squinted my eyes up at the sun, looked back at my friend and said “I don’t know.” I went inside after playing and kept thinking about the question. “Well, something must have created all of this stuff!” I thought. Then, right behind that thought I wondered “but then who created God? And then what created the thing that created God?” It was very confusing to try to get to the root of this God question, especially at that age. What came “first?” How does something pop up out of nothing? How does anything become created from nothingness? The answer to the question was a better question Fast forward almost 30 years later and I am still pondering the same damn question, as many of us are I think. However, at this point, the universe has delivered to me some insights that have helped me make better sense of this eternal paradox. See, I used to ask:  “How could ‘God’ (or Spirit, or the Universe, or whatever you like to call it) pop up out of nothing? How could existence be formed from nonexistence?” At this point, though, I’ve realized there is a better question to ask altogether. The better question is “how could existence NOT exist if there is nonexistence?” [More…]   23 Dec
The Gap Called Despair - by Soren Dreier 2016 has been very challenging for a lot of spiritually engaged people. Some seem to have fallen into a gap that to them is quite unfamiliar. We all experiences gaps, in the journey ‘back home’. Back Home, as in the place we dwell when we feel our life has a meaning to it and we seem to know why and what we are here for. We cannot bypass these gaps simply because, as goes for a lot of issues, what we bypass – we do not walk through or confront. Everything we bypass in this life, is still there for the next time around. It is a very internal dynamic but is also obviously mirrored in our external life, the way we interact with this world. There is a slight difference in the dynamics and it is a very important difference: There are some things, circumstances and people we do not need to confront or face because we are aware of the emotional hooks and in that awareness we do not get sucked in via the emotions. For example, if somebody wants to be aggressive with us we do not necessarily need to take the bait, since every time we give into that we get caught up in the dramas and control. They need a punching bag and we are, on the road home, very welcome to leave it be, turn away, or just address it without putting emotions into it. When you become really good at this, they will start to label you as controlling or arrogant. Are you? But, there seems to be one person we cannot turn away from, and that would be oneself. If we´re ever haunted by somebody, we are haunted by ourselves. What we bypass on the road to redemption will be fragments, themes, unfulfilled desires, karma; things that seem to be hidden very well in the burden basket we tend to call the signature of our ego’s struggling in and with this world. We can escape most – but not what hides within, and what many thought they could suppress via  the ‘right’ spiritual approach, often formulated by someone else. What is formulated by someone else can be good advice, but in order to integrate it we have to live it. Learning by doing is often not the same as learning by mirroring. Our little eyes have seen a lot, and our little ears have heard a lot and our little soul is trying to contain it, transform it, walk through it, in order to cast it away for good. I strongly believe that in these years of ordeal for so many, our little souls have grown. People are asking me now, while they are staring down the gap: Why am I here? What’s my mission in this life? Here is the Secret of the Gap: The gap is constructed by ambition. And there’s nothing wrong with ambition. Ambition is but a toning of desire and all in this world is desire driven. I often say that spirituality is not a competitive sport, and people agree, but they do not look into their ambitions and are still very competitive in a field that not compatible with competition. Funny ei? So, that gap of despair, which makes people so unhappy that they actually say to me that they do not want to spend one second more on this planet is constructed by: Your spiritual ambition combined with the state of the world that you inhabit. That can either be your private world and its qualities, or its perceived lack of qualities. If that is your reality, use 2017 to roll up them sleeves and fix it. Just fix it. [more…]   21 Dec
Join Us For The Solstice Group Distant Healing Event On 21 December, 2016! - Solstice group distant healing event Wednesday, 21 December 2016 Summer Solstice in the South Winter Solstice in the North -All are welcome to participate in this event – By Edna Spennato The Earth Heal Geoharmonic Research Project will be hosting a group distant healing event for participants around the world on the Solstice, 21 December. Each participant will receive distant healing work as an individual and as part of the group, and will play a part in holding the energy for the morphic field and the planetary side of the healing. Our event will begin at 17:00 or 5 pm GMT/Universal Time and continue for about 4 hours, ending around 9 pm GMT/Universal Time. To check the starting time of this event in your part of the world, please go to this link. All people and animals everywhere in the world are welcome to join us as once-off participants on anexchange basis of your choice or by opting for annual membership to Earth Heal, and being included in all our distant healing events for the coming year. Those in disadvantaged circumstances can ask to be included on a pro bono basis. If this applies to you, and you would like to be a participant in this treatment and receive healing on a personal level as well as being part of the group holding the energy for the planet, please feel free to contact us at earthhealadmin [at] gmail [dot] com, with the subject line, “Pro-bono participant – December Solstice event”. The treatment will include around 200 participants globally, and will be facilitated in Bahia, Brazil by Edna Spennato, working under guidance from the collective Higher Self of the group. All people and animals everywhere in the world are welcome to join us as once-off participants on anexchange basis of your choice or by opting for annual membership to Earth Heal, and being included in all our distant healing events for the coming year. Those in truly disadvantaged circumstances can ask to be included on a pro bono basis. If this applies to you, and you would like to be a participant in this treatment and receive healing on a personal level as well as being part of the group holding the energy for the planet, please feel free to contact us at earthhealadmin [at] gmail [dot] com, with the subject line, “Pro-bono participant – 21 December 2016 event”. The treatment will include more than 200 participants globally, and will be facilitated in Bahia, Brazil by Edna Spennato, working under guidance from the collective Higher Self of the group. [more…] 20 Dec
Science and Technology Guests on Late Night, Week of December 19 - Not all late night programs have started their Christmas breaks yet.  The Comedy Central programs are pre-empted this week, and a few of the broadcast shows will air through the end of this week. Star Talk also has a new episode tonight (Monday).  The featured guest is William Shatner, and the power of science fiction will once again be a theme of the program (especially if you count the podcast-only editions of both StarTalk Live and the recently added StarTalk All-Stars).  Tyson can also be seen on this week’s all-new episode of Science Goes to the Movies.  The episode covers the Ice Age films, which Tyson will no doubt criticize for their lack of scientific realism (putting aside the notion of talking animals).  It has already premiered on CUNY TV, and should be available soon via the show’s website.  (You area may also air the show on a PBS affiliate.  Check those local listings.) Looking at the week’s repeats, you can both Chris Pratt and Jennifer Lawrence visiting with Ellen last month to promote the newly released film Passengers.  Lawrence is also on tonight’s (Monday’s) new edition of Watch What Happens Live on Bravo.  Pratt will sit down with Stephen Colbert on Friday’s Late Show. Hidden Figures will premiere in limited release on Christmas Day.  Janell Monae, one of the leads, will appear on Tuesday’s Tonight Show to promote the film.  Jim Parsons is also in the film (he usually plays a scientist on The Big Bang Theory), and will be on Thursday’s edition of the show.  The film chronicles the work of NASA human computers (a team of African American women) as they support the Mercury astronauts. While he is currently best known as the owner of the Los Angeles Clippers, former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer will be on with Conan this Tuesday. During the upcoming holiday break, you can fill the gap with the MythBusters mega-marathon, starting on the 23rd.  The MythBusters build team can now be streamed on Netflix as The White Rabbit Project.  You can also catch a few segments from recent programs.  On December 6 The Daily Show addressed how the military is trying to do its job in a more green fashion.  On the December 12 episode of Full Frontal, host Sam Bee talked about government surveillance (Russian and others), including an interview with Chris Soghoian, chief technologist at the ACLU. As I’m still stuck on weekly posts, I’ll wish everyone a Merry Christmas, and see you next week.Filed under: S & T on Film, TV or the Radio 19 Dec
Science and Technology Guests on Late Night, Week of December 12 - We have not yet entered the Christmas break for various shows.  Listings here might increase next week with the December 21 release of Passengers, a science fiction film starring Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt as passengers on a sleeper ship that wake up decades ahead of schedule.  Lawrence will appear with Jimmy Kimmel tonight (Monday) with James Corden on Tuesday, and on the episode of Chelsea released on Friday.  Pratt can be seen with Corden tonight (Monday) and on Tuesday’s edition of Conan. Tonight’s (Monday’s) episode of Star Talk features comedian and former Tonight Show host Jay Leno.  Leno also hosts a car show online and on CNBC called Jay Leno’s Garage.  Tyson is featured on that show this week (which airs on Wednesday’s) when the two drive a jet propelled car.  Cars and comedy will be themes in tonight’s Star Talk episode. The big news is that The White Rabbit Project is now available on Netflix.  Hosted by Kari Byron, Tori Belleci and Grant Imahara (the MythBusters Build Team), the show takes deep dives into various topics like jailbreaks.  They are ranked (which raises the same kinds of questions and challenges that faced Craig Ferguson’s Join or Die program on The History Channel).  I have not yet watched the show, but the hosts have been making the rounds, and will appear really late Tuesday on Last Call with Carson Daly.  You can watch all of this season’s episodes now via Netflix. In related MythBusters news, Science Channel has announced the premiere for MythBusters: The Search, a reality competition show that will somehow find the next hosts of a new version of MythBusters.  The Search premieres on January 7, probably the last day of the now annual MythBusters mega-marathon (which starts December 23). This is actually a pretty active week, because there’s more.  Mr. Robot star Rami Malek is visiting Jimmy Kimmel Tuesday and Jim Parsons is on with Ellen this Friday.  Parsons plays a scientist on The Big Bang Theory, but he is also in the upcoming film Hidden Figures.  This film follows the efforts of several of NASA’s human computers, many of them African-American women, as they work on the early space missions. I’m a bit behind on some of the late night programs, but I must note that during Vice President Joe Biden’s December 6 appearance on The Late Show, he talked about the 21st Century Cures act (not yet signed by the President at the time of the taping) and the Cancer Moonshot.  Colbert lets the Vice President just talk, probably out of a combination of deference and a relative lack of knowledge on either topic. There were also two series that have featured science and technology topics as part of episode plots.  The Supergirl episode “Changing” featured a climate change researcher as a key character (and much more will be spoiling things).  As is often the case, Elementary has used science, technology, and practitioners of both as key drivers of its stories.  In the current season the strongest example of this is the episode “Henny Penny the Sky is Falling” which concerns asteroid research.Filed under: S & T on Film, TV or the Radio 12 Dec
Science and Technology Guests on Late Night, Week of December 5 - The Thanksgiving vacations are done for the late night programs, and none to soon to get ready for the Christmas breaks. Tonight’s edition of Star Talk features actor Terry Crews.  The show will focus in part on Crews former career as a professional football player to discuss diet and exercise.  For the show not to address brain trauma would be an unfortunate oversight. There’s a special Conan program on Wednesday the 7th.  Continuing a series of foreign specials, this prime time program will focus on a recent trip to Berlin.  I don’t know whether or not there would be a science and/or technology component of the show.  There is also a regular episode of Conan that night, and Melissa Rauch, who plays a scientist on The Big Bang Theory, will appear. The week’s offerings are thin.  However, two of the lead cast in Hidden Figures, the forthcoming movie about NASA mathematicians, are appearing on shows this week.  Octavia Spencer is on with Stephen Colbert this Thursday, while castmate Taraji P. Henson is on with Seth Meyers the same night. I’ll end with a note of last week’s Tim Daly interview with Stephen Colbert.  Part of the November 30th program, the two discussed Daly’s work in arts advocacy, and at around 5:15 in the segment, Daly discusses a recent experience he had at a Brian Cox (the physicist, not the actor) that prompted him to realize how artists can place scientific endeavors in an emotional context.Filed under: S & T on Film, TV or the Radio 5 Dec
Science and Technology Guests on Late Night, Week of November 21 - The American Thanksgiving prompts most late night shows to take off this week, or at least Friday (and Thursday).  Conan is pre-empted all week, and many shows will be pre-empted on Thursday. Of this week’s repeats, one is from the various segments from last week that I couldn’t (or didn’t) mention last Monday.  On the November 14th edition of @midnight, the #HashtagWars segment was #ScienceCelebs.  Contestants (and the audience) would suggests celebrity names that have been ‘scienced’ up, such as ‘Bunsen’ Bernie Sanders.  The audience winning entry (announced on the 15th) was Quantum Tarantino.  You can watch the whole episode again on Wednesday’s rerun.  There is censored swearing. The other reruns of note this week are on Thursday.  Adam Conover’s recent appearance on The Late Show is scheduled.  He hosts a show on TruTV that tests common assumptions about things.  That night on The Late Late Show  you can see Neil deGrasse Tyson’s appearance from September.  Speaking of Tyson, tonight (Monday) on Star Talk is actor Ben Stiller.  At least part of the episode deals with the science of comedy (a topic the show addressed before when Larry Wilmore was the guest). I was wrong about not including a couple of guests last week.  On the November 14th edition of The Daily Show, both Nate Silver and Adrian Grenier were guests.  Silver was on to try and explain how he really didn’t get things wrong about the election (and host Trevor Noah did try to hold his feet to the fire).  However, Grenier was not on to discuss his acting roles, but his Lonely Whale Foundation, which is focused on education and awareness around the ocean environment.  On Thursday the 17th, both The Late Show and Conan had unexpected science content.  Stephen Colbert welcomed bear expert Jeff Watson.  No bears were shown live in studio, and the segment was – at least for me – focused on the science of bears and bear attacks in a way I didn’t expect.  An excerpt of their conversation is available online.  On the same episode, Colbert discusses President-elect Trump’s prospective climate change policies. Also of note from last week is Conan O’Brien’s visit to a YouTube Virtual Reality lab.  It aired during his November 17th broadcast.  As is his custom, O’Brien makes it weird and awkward. There are a couple of new guests to note.  Michael Weatherly is on The Late Show tonight (Monday).  He plays a jury consultant on Bull who uses technology to analyze actual and potential jurors.  On Tuesday Stephen will welcome James Marsden, who is a star of the HBO science fiction show Westworld.  He may or may not play a robot (I’ve not been watching the show)Filed under: S & T on Film, TV or the Radio 21 Nov
Science and Technology Guests on Late Night, Week of November 14 - There were two guests on The Late Show last week that I should have included.  On November 7th Don Cheadle was on in part to promote his episode of the National Geographic series Years of Living Dangerously.  His episode focuses on the drought in California and how it could be linked to climate change.  On November 10th Thandie Newton, who plays one of the androids on the HBO series Westworld, sat down with Stephen Colbert.  Throw in the one appearance on The Late Show I did note – Neil deGrasse Tyson on the 8th – and it was a strong week, especially in the midst of an election. A repeat of note this week – Kumail Nanjiani’s October appearance on The Late Late Show will be rebroadcast on Friday.  Nanjiani plays one of the tech company employees featured on Silicon Valley. I continue to neglect Star Talk, now on Mondays.  Last week’s episode focused on mathematics, with Tyson talking with Jeremy Irons, who played one of the mathematicians in the film The Man Who Knew Infinity.  (Dev Patel stars with Jeremy Irons in the film, and will be a guest on The Late Show Wednesday.  He may or may not discuss that film as he has a new project out soon.)  Tonight’s main guest will be Andy Weir, author of The Martian.  It marks a return engagement, of sorts, as Weir was on a previous episode of Star Talk, (Larry Wilmore was the main guest) though in that case Weir appeared by videoconference. We start off the week with The Late Show, as Alton Brown is one of Stephen’s guests tonight (Monday).  Brown is the only cooking guest I feature here as he typically includes a demonstration or some other knowledge about food and how to prepare it that is lacking in other food segments.  Brown is touring with his new stage show, so I expect to see a demonstration of some ridiculous cooking apparatus.  Also of note tonight is that Nate Silver will sit down with Trevor Noah for a segment (Adrien Grenier is also a scheduled guest).  Expect Silver to tap dance throughout the segment about how his website still got some things right in predicting the outcome of last week’s election. On Tuesday CNN medical reporter Sanjay Gupta will appear on Late Night.  Over on Harry, Jeremy Renner will talk up Arrival, where he plays a mathematician trying to figure out the aliens who have arrived on Earth.  Amy Adams will promote the film (where she plays a linguist doing the same thing) Thursday on The Late Show.  Filed under: S & T on Film, TV or the Radio 14 Nov
Science and Technology Guests on Late Night, Week of November 7 - The election will suck much of the joy out of late night programming on Tuesday.  Many programs are in repeats or simply pre-empted.  Stephen Colbert is doing a show on Tuesday, but it is available only on the Showtime cable network.  CBS will air an edited version of the program on Friday. There is some science-fiction movie promotion going on this week.  Arrival, premiering Friday in the United States, stars Amy Adams as a linguist called on to help figure out what arriving aliens are trying to say.  On Thursday you can start the day with Adams on Live with Kelly and end it with Adams on The Tonight Show.  Jeremy Renner plays a mathematician in the film, and he visit the same shows on Friday.  Passengers is another science fiction film, starring Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt as astronauts who have woken early on a sleeper ship.  They will visit Ellen DeGeneres on Thursday. Wednesday’s a big night for science and technology guests.  Neil deGrasse Tyson visits The Late Show that night, and a little bit later, Alton Brown is on Last Call.  Brown is the only cooking guest I list in these posts because it’s usually a lock you’ll learn something about cooking and/or technology in his segments.  He’s touring the country with a live show and has made noises about developing an online cooking show that is of kindred spirit to his landmark program Good Eats. In other listings, Ken Jeong, who plays a doctor in Dr. Ken and was a licensed physician, visits with Jimmy Kimmel on a rare non-repeat Friday show (thank the election night pre-emption for that). There were some items of note last week that I didn’t note in advance.  Bill Maher had President Obama on his latest edition of Real Time.  Genetically modified organisms and climate change were covered during the lengthy conversation, which the show has posted on YouTube.  The Daily Show tackled male sexual health in it’s November 1st edition, and not just the recent reports about a male birth control study that had problems retaining participants.Filed under: S & T on Film, TV or the Radio 7 Nov
Science and Technology Guests on Late Night, Week of October 31 - Occasionally shows will record interviews and edit them for time (The Daily Show does this a lot).  However, some shows save them for later (this happens often with musical guests).  It’s possible that one such interview might finally come to light this week.  Ron Suskind was booked for The Late Show in July.  A journalist often focused on matters of policy and politics, he is also the father of an autistic child.  Life, Animated is the story of how the Suskind family dealt with their youngest son’s autism and discovered how to engage with him.  Suskind is still telling that story and it’s not clear how that will shake out on Thursday’s edition.  It’s possible that it is a new interview, depending on how much politics was discussed in July.  If the focus was on Suskind’s son, the show may just run the July segment. There is a repeat of note.  Evan Rachel Wood, one of the android characters on Westworld, was recently on Late Night, and that appearance will air again this Friday. Back to the rest of this week’s goodness.  StarTalk is *not* on tonight, being pre-empted for the television debut of Before the Flood, a climate change documentary produced by Leonardo DiCaprio.  While today is Halloween, the show did a zombie episode last week, with creator of The Walking Dead (the graphic novels that spawned the television show) Robert Kirkman.  Preview clips have mentioned the CDC zombie preparedness paper, so there will certainly be some public policy discussed.  Next week (November 7) the show returns and will focus on The Man Who Knew Infinity, the 2015 film that chronicles the story of Indian mathematician Srinivasa Ramanujan.  Jeremy Irons, who plays Ramanujan’s mentor in the film, is the guest.  (The White House recently hosted a discussion on the film.) Last week I mentioned Bryce Dallas Howard’s role in a recent episode of Black Mirror.  Alice Eve co-stars with Howard in that episode, and she is on The Late Late Show tonight (Monday).  Also today, you might have caught the third appearance by YouTube science experimenter Science C on Harry.  Clearly we can expect to see more from Science C on this show in the future.  And to add to the Halloween goodness, former doctor currently playing one on TV Ken Jeong visited The View today. Christian Slater, one of the computer hackers on Mr. Robot, is busy with shows this week.  He is the guest co-host on Live with Kelly this Thursday and Friday.  But if you can’t wait until then, you can catch him on Late Night on Wednesday.  And because it’s been just a few weeks since he’s been on somewhere besides The Big Bang Theory, Kunal Nayyar will visit The Talk on Wednesday. In related news, the forthcoming Netflix show Bill Nye Saves the World finished shooting its first season. Just wrapped S1 of #BillNyeSavesTheWorld. Couldn't be prouder of the the cast & crew. We had a blast– I hope you do too. Thanks @netflix! — Bill Nye (@BillNye) October 31, 2016 As it won’t air until 2017, you can expect it to be about as topical as StarTalk, rather than another Netflix talk show, Chelsea. Enjoy your Halloween, everyone.Filed under: S & T on Film, TV or the Radio 31 Oct
Science and Technology Guests on Late Night, Week of October 24 - A brief note on the dramatic decrease in posts this month.  There have been a combination of outside factors that have limited my posting (including a flood) and it seems likely I will be posting just once or twice a week for a little longer.  Apologies. This is the biggest list of science and technology guests in recent memory.  It’s certainly my longest post on the subject in a while.  And doesn’t count any of the continued joking about the Galaxy Note 7 smartphone. This week’s most tenuous listing may be Mary-Louise Parker’s appearance on The Late Show Thursday.  She stars in a new Broadway play, Heisenberg.  It’s a screwball comedy, which may or may not have some connection to the scientific work of the physicist whose name graces the play.  Given his work on uncertainty, please excuse the meta-ness of it all. The CBS high-tech hospital drama Pure Genius premieres this week.  Dermot Mulroney plays the lead doctor in the show, which follows a high-tech, high-innovation hospital funded by a tech billionaire.  Mulroney will be on The Late Show on Tuesday, and he will be joined by his co-star Augustus Prew (who plays the tech billionaire) on Thursday’s edition of The Talk. Adam Conover visits The Late Show tonight (Monday).  He hosts Adam Ruins Everything, a show that digs into ‘hidden secrets’ behind various things.  Some episode focus on science and technology topics, like nutrition and voting.  He will double dip tonight with an appearance on Last Call.  Also on Monday, Evan Rachel Wood visits The Tonight Show.  She plays a cyborg character on Westworld, the HBO series examining life on an adult theme park.  Wood is also on Thursday’s episode of Late Night. While Nick Offerman may be best known for his acting, he is also an accomplished woodworker, and has a new book out focusing on his woodworking shop and woodwork in general.  He was on The Late Show discussing it on October 18, and will be on Monday’s edition of The Late Late Show promoting it. Monday is just full of guests, including Bryce Dallas Howard, who visits Conan.  She’s in one of the episodes of the latest series of Black Mirror.  Her episode explores issues around online rating systems.  I really can’t say much more without disclosing plot points.  Howard will also be on Tuesday’s edition of The Talk. The Daily Show is airing a clip show tonight, probably to give host Trevor Noah additional time to recover from a serious respiratory and ear infection.  But on Wednesday John Dell Volpe, a polling researcher at Harvard’s Institute of Politics is the guest. Chelsea, available on Netflix, continues to bring on science and technology guests.  In the episode dropping Thursday, host Chelsea Handler talks with genomics pioneer Craig Venter about her genome test.  And if that’s not enough, “Science Bob” Pflugfelder returns to Jimmy Kimmel Live! on Thursday.  Filed under: S & T on Film, TV or the Radio, Site News 24 Oct
how much was wasted? … - Oh for a ‘clone’ Trump to remove Australia’s Chairman Mal, a win for the environment, it would be: […] Trump has told supporters he will cut off such payments to the U.N.  “(Trump’s) campaign released a policy statement (Nov. 1) suggesting that he would ‘cancel all wasteful climate change spending,’ which would include the elimination of all of the federal government’s international and domestic climate programs as well as a rollback in regulations aimed at cutting carbon emissions,” the Post reports. “The campaign estimated that these moves would save $100 billion over eight years,” the Post reports. Trump wants to spend that money on U.S.-based environmental programs, telling supporters he will “use that money to support America’s vital environmental infrastructure and natural resources.” Tony Abbott started doing climate reforms until the media’s abuse gave some now ex-politicians cold feet and swapped support. Now the progressive left Prime minister is surging, further left. That will make his demise certain. It’s not going to be pretty, so popcorn will be on order, Trump’s enemies are enjoyable to watch, so I have run out. The evidence about recent science of CO2 is being ignored, Trump to fix: […] Greenstone and Sunstein are not alone in their refusal to deal with evidence that undermines their claims. But if the SCC looks to be negative, the Trump administration should act to eliminate the current endangerment finding for carbon dioxide, and dismantle the regulatory apparatus that rests upon its highly questionable estimation of the positive value of SCC.  The sorry truth is that the EPA and the regulatory process in the Obama administration show no respect for the scientific method they claim to rely on. (Hat tip greeniewatch.com a great resource from Dr Ray) 22 Dec
the new climate reality to look forward to … - This outline from Dr Tim Ball about the science and future of the climate/weather debate is well worth reading. The changes that are sending messages with Donald Trump cabinet selections have already created a major stir in the losing side and their compliant media. This augurs well for major changes in the way science has been bludgeoned in the last couple of decades. Where it all started: […] Maurice Strong set up the IPCC through the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This organization is comprised of weather bureaucrats from every UN member nation. They created, controlled, and promoted the IPCC agenda so that politicians had no choice, as Strong intended. This, and President Obama’s use of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are proof that bureaucracies must not have control going forward. Their role must be as passive collectors and disseminators of data. They should not be involved in research. This was a major part of the problem with the IPCC and weather office involvements. Scientific bureaucrats are automatically compromised by their career being subject to the whim and will of their political bosses. Skepticism, the very hallmark of science, is automatically stifled in such a hierarchical structure. Strong, Obama and Gore were all a part of the failed Chicago Carbon Exchange! Dr Tim Ball then goes on to say: […] My warning was because it is likely that my three lawsuits are related to my activities. Voltaire said “It is dangerous to be right when people in authority are wrong.” Many were unsure if the people in authority were finally right. Trump’s meetings with carbon footprint hypocrites Al Gore and Leonardo DiCaprio, seemed to signal something different. All this was put to rest with the appointment of Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute and Scott Pruitt as head of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Conversations and information gleaned at the Heritage Climate Conference on Thursday assures me accurate climate science is in charge. The challenge is to deprogram the people, remove the exploitive agencies and rules they created, and set up a system that is as free of politics as possible. […] Read the whole thing. Speaking of the new people in authority, this post gives me thrills, the new adults running the show, are asking questions that must shake the outgoing bureaucracy to their core. Their homework is shown to know extraordinary details. Willis writes: The DOE vs. Ugly Reality Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Over at the Washington Post, Chris Mooney and the usual suspects are seriously alarmed by a memo sent out by the Transition Team at the Department of Energy. They describe it in breathless terms in an article entitled “Trump transition team for Energy Department seeks names of employees involved in… There are a lot of questions, a small sample here in bold with Willis adding his comment, but go and read the whole astonishing lot of 74 questions. […] The new Administration asks where the current denizens would cut ten percent … then when they are told it, they know they might want to cut somewhere else … useful info either way. 32 Does the Department have any thoughts on how to reduce the bureaucratic burden for exporting U.S. energy technology, including but not limited to commercial nuclear technology? Likely not … but worth asking … 33 Is the number of Assistant Secretaries set by statute? Does the statute establish the number as a minimum or a maximum, or is it silent on the question? Assistant Secretaries are now on DEFCON 1, or DEFCON 0.5, their hair is totally engulfed in flames … 34 Can you provide a list of all current open job postings and the status of those positions? 35 Can you provide a list of outstanding M&O contracts yet to be awarded for all DOE facilities and their current status? 36 Can you provide a list of non-M&O procurements/awards that are currently pending and their status? […] Scary, for them! 10 Dec
ASCENSION WAVE, TRANSDIMENSIONAL WAR, DAYS TO COME. - Going on about 4 weeks ago we talked about a massive wave of energy hitting the planet. It is now here, it is measurable and it seems everyone is trying to figure out what it is. It is part of the awakening and healing cycle of humanity and the earth and something much awaited. It is the end of the Draconian or Archon Grid. It has everything to do with the arrival of 13th dimensional beings as well as the Andromedans whose ships can block out the entire eastern sky and when powered up can be as bright as 10,000 suns. This might be a hint as to the sun NASA observed coming our way that keeps changing speeds. How is this going to affect earth? It all has to do with frequency. Those holding on to the past, old grudges attitudes and emotions especially the frequency of tyranny and the arrogance of separation are not frequency specific to this wave. They will not fare well. The masks are all coming down. This is a healing energy yet along with it is the program of Universal Law. The principles necessary for a healthy society and environment basically known as Universal Peace, Brother/Sisterly Love, Individual Freedom and Prosperity for All. This wave is indicative of the source saying enough, it is finished. This is being played out in the physical as the liberators verses the controllers and the controllers are imploding. Humanity is waking up as well as the platform for life mother earth, Gaia Sophia; whatever name you want to give her. This shift includes other dimensions as well. The controllers represented best by the Illuminati, banksters, war and disease profiteers are controlled by transdimensional beings, fallen Annunaki, Reptillians, Serpent Beings and what most would call demonic forces. They have suppressed and enslaved humanity since long before the Egyptian Dynasties. Thus you are seeing the polarities getting stronger and stronger. If you want to know who is who, follow the money. Who is big money backing? That is all you need to do. Most politicians are controlled by the banksters, the banksters are controlled by the illuminati the uber rich most of which have been doing blood sacrifices which includes children and acts so decadent and evil most could not comprehend. In past times the ceremonies were only held in the highest levels now they are held at the lowest levels; which is being revealed as we speak. This is not conspiracy this is fact and you will not hear about it in the Corporate Owned lame stream news. Because it is the fake news. If you understood the mission statement of the illuminati you would understand how deep this problem runs and why it is so hard to root out. Their goal is to put their people in powerful positions, to bribe and blackmail those in powerful positions to do their bidding until they have total dominance of the world. If you don’t play ball with them you don’t succeed in climbing the ladder of power and wealth. If you go against them you will loose everything, your life and your family’s lives. Those you would go to for help, the agencies of law enforcement are owned and participants in many of these satanic rituals or caught in honey pot blackmail operations some with under age women which are dressed up to look much older. I myself have been subject to attempts at entrapment yet my inner guidance made it very clear do not go there. It is really that dark and decadent. They also have Manchurian candidates beautiful women and men who are very adept in using their sexual energies to control or sabotage the light workers. This ascension wave is the solution. It is the soul activator, the initiation and support of the light workers and warriors who came to the earth to liberate her and her people. Though most are unaware there is a stirring inside some at a very young age, some being awakened now that things are not and have not been right for quite some time. Many cannot shove under the rug the atrocities to humanity and the earth as well as what can only be deemed as criminal behavior of their leaders, bosses, friends or family. This wave is bringing everything up, the masks are coming off and everything will be revealed. Armageddon is defined as the great uncovering, no rock shall be left unturned. It is an internal movement of consciousness and energy; which will find its expression in the external. Everything in this dimension owes its existence to the next dimension up it is a vibrational ladder. The lowest levels of the 4th dimension have fallen annunaki, reptilians, serpent beings, greys and other demonic and fallen souls. This is being cleaned up. The puppets are loosing their puppet masters. The higher 4th dimension is filled with guides, shamans, teachers and healers yet they are still bound by their religious or cultural beliefs; which keeps them on the wheel of reincarnation. For those who think this is unchristian explain to me the quote, “No one comes to earth but he who has come from heaven, or John the Baptist is Elisa who was to come.” The bible with the apocrypha has many dissertations about reincarnation yet they were taken out by the Council of Nicaea. There are dimensions beyond the 4th with whole civilizations existing on them. These are also mentioned in the bible. The Sons of Arcturus, the Orion Council of Light, the Pleiadians all are riding this ascension wave adding their consciousness, energy and talents to the process. There are Sirians, the protectors of the Gods, Andromedans mythologically known as Arch Angels due to their magnetized light bodies. There are 6th and 9th dimensional Annunaki also coming in to recall the fallen ones and right an ancient wrong. This massive wave including the higher dimensional beings and the earth herself in her ascension process has the dark hearts pressed hard from above and below. What you are going to see is those who are evolving, adjusting to the new energies will continue. Those who resist will not. The days of the tyrants are over. They are not frequency specific to the evolution of humanity and the earth. The masks are coming down and you will see them for who and what they are. A little hint some are not human, inhuman acts are often carried out by inhuman beings along with those they have duped and deceived to do their bidding. They have used social programming, religious programming, electronic programming, and ceremonial programming, bribes and blackmail to manipulate and entrap what in many cases were good people. This will all be revealed the spell will be broken. Many will go through their dark night of the soul as they regain their true conscience and the soul comes forward. We all to some degree or another have things to let go, restitution to be made, we have to release the past remember who we are and stand tall in our own divinity. The forgiveness of Creator is unlimited yet the request has to be heart and soul felt along with the desire and action to right any wrongs. Some will most arrogantly say there is no right or wrong which is spiritual ego. They are not ascended or beyond karma it is only lip service. We no longer have the luxury of living in denial, hide behind spiritual aphorisms and not be authentic and own our stuff. We have to transcend all cultural and religious boundaries, align with Unity Consciousness and live according to Universal Law……….. The Creator is Omnipresent in all Creation. There are fallen ones and miscreations that need to be addressed yet do it from the God within. It is time for each and everyone to make their own personal God, Creator, Great Spirit connection, not the jealous wrathful warring god or the bearded gods of the past known as the Annunaki some of which were benevolent, some were not. Your religions came from the behavior of these gods. Connect to the All Loving, All Forgiving, God of Love from within. Was it not written Ye are Gods, Children of the most high? Was it not written the temple is within? Is this not within every culture. Becoming one with the one consciousness that encompasses all consciousness on all planes and dimensions throughout the multiverse? Is not love the cosmic glue the ultimate power in the universe? Do not forget being enlightened does not mean being a doormat. Enlightenment means being in knowledge of all of it, both sides for the coin and everything in between. It also demands action and this ascension wave is going to shove you in that direction. Learn to lead yourselves from your own heart and soul. Surfs Up. James Gillilandwww.eceti.orgwww.bbsradio.com23 Dec
A Birth/Rebirth out of Mayhem ~ Archangel Michael - Because this post is based entirely upon information received through channeled material I am advised to ask for reader discretion. On December 15th Archangel Michael addressed us again in ’An Hour with An Angel’. It is with great joy that I present this summary of the show with many longer quotes which I transcribed as I listened recently, please note this is not the entire transcript. The darkened passages are my interpretation of what I feel to be of importance. Archangel Michael wishes that this message be spread far and wide in every way possible at this time. He explains that we are now at a time when we are finally aware of the truth of our role. He says that understanding our role is something that ‘comes in layers’ and that ‘there is always more’.It’s time to celebrate that “you are embodying the fullness of who you are”. “You are not only accepting your ‘creator self’ but you are stepping into your role of bringing forth this Garden of Eden.”He insists that we accept that this transition is not dependent on any exterior situations to do with politics, RV’s, or World Peace……… “What’s important is WILL = that depth of determination to go forth and to do YOUR bidding, no matter what.” Michael discusses how the mayhem and chaos that we see around us at this time on Gaia is part of a process of change. He takes the time to compare this time to the birth of a child. “Think of the death of a star with the birth of a planet – even the birth of a child or an infant, in those hours or moments when a mother is in labour – if you were to ask her through the varying emotional stages and the physical reality of pain – that would be the very definition of chaos, of pushing and feeling that you must escape – that you want this over and done with and yet at the same time this deep abiding wonder and awe and excitement and the result is the birth of the child! Out of that chaos comes new life, new existence, new reality. It will never be the same once that child that creation is brought into the world. Not only is the planet never the same the family never the same, there is new life, new existence, new script. So what you are experiencing now is the birth and what looks like……..entire mayhem, it’s been messy and painful and really not making a lot of sense.” He then continues to talk in very strong and clear language about the cabal and how their desires will not be fulfilled. “I will say this repeatedly until all understand There are those upon your planet who would like to reinvent, rebuild, reconstruct the old 3rd dimension. Now that is chaos at its finest. Let us also be clear that the vigor, the commitment to that rebuilding of the old world is as strong as it was at the initial stages of that construction, that level of desire to bring back the old is extraordinarily strong, because what they are doing in many ways is…. they want to bring back ‘the good old days’.They were NOT good old days, it was some of the darkest periods of humanity, the last especially 100 years of human history has been violent and aggressive and cruel and controlling. The violence and chaos with which this small group wishes to reconstruct duality into the old paradigm WILL NOT BE PERMITTED. We need to be very clear about that……. We do not override free will…. But we do place people, variables in place that redirect energies. The old 3rd is gone – it is but a memory. What you are seeing and witnessing is twofold. There are those that are playing out – finishing up those memories, and then there are those who wish to reconstruct the old……. The physical reconstruction of the old – which was never the Mothers plan for physicality or space – it will never happen. So there is this churning energy and you can think of it as that pot on the stove boiling over with water or foam or whatever…….. What is happening – you are the creators but we are helping you as well. It is important that this pot overflows and makes a terrible mess on your stove and in your kitchen because then you are very clear about what the mess is……. It will not be a mess indefinitely and it’s going to be cleaned up and the heat is going to be turned off. He explains that this ‘lesson’ brought into creation by these ‘players’ is not of love and it is not sustainable and is entirely an illusion. He says the reason that He is spending so much time describing this is because our role is to be the OBSERVERS of this mess but NOT TO ENGAGE in it because that is not the reality…… This is the opportunity for the entire planet to say “this is not where we choose to place our energy, or what we chose to create – this is not acceptable. We are using our creator selves in tandem with our Star Family in tandem with the spiritual realm of Ascended Beings and Archangels to step forth as the true implementers of the Mothers Plan. This apparent chaos is nothing but a distraction…… It’s not our chaos…. Observe it – move the pot off the stove – turn off the heat. You are not going to jump into the water. …………. The slaughter that has been taking place in Aleppo is criminal and I use that word very specifically……….it is the killing of the innocent……now that is chaos and the opportunity is to say no.” Archangel Michael makes it clear that we as Lightworkers have been saying no to this chaos and he reminds that our saying NO resounds across the planet. He says that an enormous number of Lightworkers are actually (literally) holding the hands of the ones who are departing (in this war), He explains that many Lightworkers are working with Him there and in various places around the globe. (33mins) The guidance from the entire Co of Heaven is “do not engage in chaos – look at it and use it to create what you desire”. AM was asked to address the current situation in the USA and this is what He had to say. “Let us back up and say that this is a time as a Lightworker, as a creator, as a love being where you are being asked to bring the highest most refined parts of yourself to the forefront to be the observer and the participant – now hold that thought and energy in your heart”.“The US situation is a good example of the chaos and the American people are disgusted, disheartened, disenchanted, dismayed etc. at the system. They have felt disenfranchised…………..the choice ended up being between the status quo or radical change and neither choice………without some adjustments (and we are talking about Divine adjustments here) is a viable vehicle of the creation of Nova Earth.” …. It’s about unity and cooperation and CO-creation not merely the co-creation with Us but the co-creation with one another…. As implementers of Nova Earth while you will be sending Light and Love and creative energy into the mayhem you will also be going on a separate track and creating a world that works for everyone……. the alternate routes that you go on will gain in momentum and power …. and it will override the pettiness of that other situation.” We might think that we are banging our head against a brick wall trying to reach the recalcitrant / reluctant people but Michael tells us that “the Mother has a million tricks up Her sleeve – literally – there is not a single minute variable that cannot (be) and is not adjusted.” Steve asked AM if we are still going to be here a year from now talking about abundance etc. AM laughed and said that he was trying to sneak in a question of ‘when’. “The answer is we will not be here next year or even next month talking about this in the same context.” Steve asked “how are we doing with disclosure and ascension” “Everything in terms of your Galactic and Intergalactic friends, family, fleets, is in place, many are positioned upon the planet, you are all running into them daily – whether you realise it or not, most of you have your ‘ET sensors’ on (laughs) and so you are acknowledging them, so from the side of your star family all is in order and in readiness……… Your military right now is quite peace loving but your political environment is very volatile and aggressive……. we do not want to allow any form of perceived aggression to take place…… there are some roller coasters ahead in the next couple of months that will see the transfer of power of what you think of as leadership in several countries. When that has taken place and completed and it is already begun …when that is completed what you see is that there will be full disclosure.” AM asks if we can “imagine the difference just with star technology – how so much easier human life will be in terms of living and healing and communication and travel – there is so much that your star friends are eager to share…. “(56mins). Steve takes up how in a family if there is suddenly a new member like a cousin turning up to stay two years how the entire dynamics in the family change. AM says that “when we are having the introduction and the presence not merely the knowing (which we’ve had for some time) – the actual presence of your star family in your house and in your community – it will change everything! That is why they have been so carful – they want to be welcomed they don’t want to be excluded from the family reunion.” Steve pointed out that when this takes place we will all rally together and drop the petty bickering that goes on and be on our best behaviour very quickly. AM says everyone will want to put on their best face. AM reminds us that “the major ‘Event’ is inside and we tend to think of this change as an event when what it is an essential shift in the paradigm of what it means to be Gaian.” Our Ascension Process AM tells us that we are doing well in terms of our ascension process. “Let me be clear – there is not one of you listening now or after the fact that is not 80% farther along than you were even several months ago!! You are almost there – the tipping point has been crossed – when we have what you call the critical mass we will have that ‘snap’. You are almost there.” AM says that if we feel that we have been carrying a heavy load that is so true as we have been carrying the reluctant/recalcitrant but we are almost there……. “Even in what appears to be chaos the forward trust is not lost – it is well underway my friends – Take heart!” Here the link to the In-Light Universal show: http://inlightuniversal.com/archangel-michael-explains-how-the-plan-unfolds-in-the-midst-of-creative-chaos/ Therese Zumi Sumner 23rd December 2016 at 1506 PM CET23 Dec
The Russian Phoenix: Hope or Illusion? - Alexander Zinoviev’s Self-Portrait: Thinking is Painful: “Striving after the painful truth has become the fate of exceptionally rare loners.”NOTE: This article is from February, and I have posted it so we can have this well developed view of the USA versus Russia debate.  It is a long article, thoughtfully written and filled with facts and explanations of those facts. Nice to have in today’s MSM environment. Russia and the USA: Criminal Gangs Competing for Turf? Apart from the mainstream portrayal of Russia as a ruthless expansionist dictatorship (a portrayal too ludicrous to merit attention here), most awake commentators fall into one of two camps. Members of the first camp believe that the realization of a better world depends on Russia’s success in its efforts to reform itself, maintain its independence, and contain American ambitions. Members of the second camp believe that the Russo-American confrontation is of no significance to the long-term future of humanity either because that conflict is being engineered by the people who control both nations, or because both sides to the conflict are “criminal networks that use brutality and violence to enforce their control over given areas and to terrorize others.” Neither camp, to my knowledge, provides a fact-based bird’s-eye view of this topic. The present article attempts to close this gap, thereby enabling readers to form their own opinion. The article concludes with my own tentative attempt to resolve the dispute between these two camps, arguing that both are partially in the right—and partially in the wrong. A conversation on the same topic is available here. Two opposing views of the Russo/American Conflict I’ve been studying Russian history and culture most of my life, but never as avidly as now. My main reason for this more intense preoccupation is similar to that of Andre Vltchek’s: “When I visit a barbershop in Beirut or Amman, and am asked ‘where are you from?’ (It used to be a painfully confusing and complex question to answer, just a few years ago), I now simply reply: “Russia,” and people come and hug me and say, ‘Thank you.’ “It is not because Russia is perfect. It is not perfect–as no country on Earth could or should be. But it is because it is standing once more against the Empire, and the Empire has brought so many horrors, so much humiliation, to so many people; to billions of people around the world . . . and to them, to so many of them, anyone who is standing against the Empire, is a hero. This I heard recently, first hand, from people in Eritrea, China, Russia, Palestine, Ecuador, Cuba, Venezuela, and South Africa, to name just a few places.” Such sentiments are shared, at least in part, by many other commentators, including F. William Engdahl, the “Saker,” andPepe Escobar. In sharp contrast to such favorable views of Russia, there are those who compare the Russo-American struggle to the fake Democratic-Republican contest of American politics. James Corbett: “We have been conditioned our entire lives to expect that anything that opposes a demonstrably evil entity must itself be good. . . . But when it comes to the machinations of global geopolitics, this is completely the wrong lens through which to understand what is happening. Much more to the point would be the metaphor of rival gangs competing for territory. It is not the case that the Bloods are the ‘good guys’ and the Crips the ‘bad guys’ or vice versa; they are both criminal networks that use brutality and violence to enforce their control over given areas and to terrorize others. “Similarly, if we understand that rivalries between various international organizations (to the extent that they exist at all) are really only battles between gangsters for control over the global turf, we can more clearly understand that it is not a question of choosing sides in the struggle, but opposing the very ideologies of centralized, hierarchical control that make these institutions possible. “If what we are combating is, as I posit, essentially two (or more) gangs competing for turf, then it is self-evident that we gain nothing from supporting one gang over another other than the vague hope that the other gang will treat us more kindly. “The real solution to centralized, hierarchical international institutions created by and for the interests of the oligarchical elite are decentralized, non-hierarchical relations created by and for the grassroots.” (See also Sibel Edmonds). Brandon Smith goes even farther, claiming that both criminal networks are controlled by a higher-level criminal network of bankers. These bankers are engineering a potentially deadly conflict between their two (or three, if one includes China) networks, in order to enslave humanity. Thus, Smith is plausibly perplexed by people who are “so awake and aware of the false left/right paradigm while remaining astonishingly naïve and short sighted when it comes to the false East/West paradigm. There are no “sides” in any modern conflict, only proxies fighting on a global chessboard controlled by the same elitist interests. . . . War is meant to forcefully change the “inertia” of civilization, and thus, forcefully change the direction of civilization in a manner that benefits the engineers of the conflict. . . .” Elsewhere, Smith says: “Russia and the U.S. are nothing but false champions dueling in a fake gladiator match paid for by the IMF. The most frightening aspect of the false paradigm between East and West is the potential it creates for the co-option of liberty proponents here in America. . . . .There is no nation out there in the ether of central banking that is going to help us. The sooner we come to terms with the reality that we are on our own, the stronger we will be when the fight begins.” Such conflicting views (e.g., Vitchek vs. Corbett) raise two sets of questions. First, is the USA controlled by a criminal gang? The answer, as we shortly illustrate and as anyone thinking for herself can immediately see, is a resounding YES. Second, should we, the people who believe in environmental stewardship, social justice, peace, spirituality, common decencies, and freedom, throw our support behind Russia, or should we treat the current Russo-American conflict as nothing more than either a larger-scale turf war between criminal outfits or perhaps a phony fight between bankers’ marionettes? Should we look to Russia and ourselves to solve the world’s problems, or only to ourselves? The bulk of this article attempts to address this second, complex, set of questions. The answer, lamentably but unavoidably, is multifaceted, long, and ambivalent. If reading such an exposition requires more time or patience than you have, you might wish to only read the last two sections (“the balance sheet” and “the Russian Phoenix: Hope or Illusion?”). Alternatively, you might wish to click on the link below and listen to a conversation on the same topic at Jeff J. Brown’sChina Rising. The USA is Controlled by a Criminal Gang The question is, if they [American government] would do this . . . if they would feed radioactive oatmeal to helpless children and lie to them and their parents about it for years . . . well gee, is there anything they wouldn’t do?– Melissa Dykes, 2016 “The US government is the most complete criminal organization in human history.”—Paul Craig Roberts(senior official in the Reagan Administration), 2016 “We live on a planet well able to provide a decent life for every soul on it, which is all ninety-nine of a hundred human beings ask.  Why in the world can’t we have it?” –Jack Finney, 1970 America is controlled by a criminal gang whose ultimate goal is, apparently, to empower and enrich itself while impoverishing and enslaving everyone else. Here are a few typical examples showing that American policies at home and abroad are exploitative, self-destructive, and utterly devoid of morality: 1. The USA is secure from foreign conquests—and yet it spends over $1,000,000,000,000 on the monstrosity of conquest (the official number, which is roughly half that figure, is a blatant lie). That is, the USA alone spends more on wars of aggression than all the nations of the world combined spend on attacking others or defending themselves! The USA likewise has one of the most corrupt war procurements establishments in the world, and a collection of overseas military garrisons “unprecedented in history.” This rarely stated attempt to rule the world by force is clearly a crime against humanity, for it causes millions of deaths, billions of partially fulfilled lives, and environmental destruction. The other side of this massive gangsterism is opportunity costs. Buckminster Fuller, for example, conclusively showed that humanity could “take care of everybody on Earth at a higher standard of living than any have ever known” by merely shifting less than half of the military budget to such things as food, education, and shelter. 2. “Go ahead and hate your neighbor,Go ahead and cheat a friend.Do it in the name of Heaven,You can justify it in the end.”—One Tin Soldier Syria provides one heart-rending example of America’s psychopathic strategy of “devouring the world, one country at a time.” Since economic blackmail and assassinations failed to shake Syria from its independent path, America, relying on a few of its viciously theocratic allies in the Middle East, trained, supplied, funded, and unleashed upon Syria a barbarian horde of mercenaries. This was preceded by decades-long, well-funded, indoctrination of these would-be mercenaries with Wahhabism—an ideology that has little to do with genuine Islam and everything to do with the Houses of Rothschild’s, Rockefeller’s, and Saud’s dictatorial and imperial aspirations. Against all odds, the Syrians are valiantly resisting, and so far they have not paid the awful price paid by such victims of America’s imperialist designs as Indonesia, Mexico, Iraq, or Libya. Since 2011, America’s colonial war in Syria has been carried out in part in cooperation with such human rights “guardians” as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and an assortment of genocidal zombies. That war led to the death of some 2% of the population, the wounding of a few more percent, displacement of 50%, and irreversible traumas to 99%.Since 2011, America’s colonial war in Syria has been carried out in part in cooperation with such human rights “guardians” as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and an assortment of genocidal zombies. That war led to the death of some 2% of the population, the wounding of a few more percent, displacement of 50%, and irreversible traumas to 99%.Since 2011, America’s colonial war in Syria has been carried out in part in cooperation with such human rights “guardians” as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and an assortment of genocidal zombies. That war led to the death of some 2% of the population, the wounding of a few more percent, displacement of 50%, and irreversible traumas to 99%. As in Guatemala, Iran, Vietnam, and scores of other countries, this genocide involves an outright rejection of democracy: “Such are the West’s ‘democratic’ allies. They refuse to allow what Assad and Putin have been insisting upon: a Syrian Presidential election that will be internationally monitored, and not concluded unless and until the international monitors announce that the results were not produced by fraud. The reason that the West refuses a democratic determination of the matter is that even the polling that has been done in Syria by Western polling firms consistently shows that Assad would win any democratic election in Syria overwhelmingly. And the reason Assad would win is obvious: the U.S fostered this war at least from the moment that Barack Obama became America’s President, and most Syrians blame the U.S. and ISIS, not Assad, for their misery. And so, they loathe America. They know that America leads this invasion, from behind the scenes.” What the Invisible Government did to Syria in 4 years. Multiply this atrocity a thousand times, with variations, and you get the picture. Genocide, deceit, hypocrisy, lawlessness, exploitation, fascism, and heartlessness lie at the core of America’s overseas behavior. From the colonization of America itself, to slavery, to Mexico, Philippines, Nicaragua, Vietnam, twice-conquered Germany, twice-nuked Japan, Indonesia, Southern Cone, Honduras, Palestine, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine—since 1694 one rule defines British and American foreign policy: “and this rule is that there are no rules.” 3. The vicious brilliance of America’s rulers at times defies belief. Thanks to bribes, assassinations, the new Gladioconspiracy, extensive wiretapping and blackmail of who’s who in Europe, economic warfare (e.g., the recent FIFA “scandal,” the VW “scandal,” following an earlier Toyota “scandal”), and control of the banks, corporations, media, and intelligence services of Western and central Europe, even that once-independent half-continent is now a submissive colony of the USA. In the words of one historian, “the level of abjection passes belief.” “The promise was that when the glass was full, it would overflow, benefiting the poor. But what happens instead is that, when the glass is full, it magically gets bigger—Nothing ever comes out for the poor.”—Pope Francis “The promise was that when the glass was full, it would overflow, benefiting the poor. But what happens instead is that, when the glass is full, it magically gets bigger—Nothing ever comes out for the poor.”—Pope Francis4. Sadly, owing in part to the 1990s disastrous collapse of the USSR, America’s real rulers accelerated their war against their own people, again playing by their favorite “anything goes” rule. They have acquired vastly more power and riches, while relegating the American Constitution into a meaningless piece of paper, applied the lessons they have learned from the Gladio Conspiracy to their contrived war on terror, assassinated or brutally tortured their real and imaginary opponents, stole so much from so many to the point that America’s 20 wealthiest people now own more wealth than the bottomhalf of the American population combined, neglected America’sinfrastructure, elevated self-serving mendacity to an art form, conducted a phony war on drugs, used these very drugs and an utterly broken justice system to turn the USA into an incarceration nation in which jailers enjoy a de facto license to kill, destroyed American industry, and converted a once-rich country to the “most bankrupt nation in history.” 5. As a final example, take Michigan. Universal sunshine bribery of federal officials led to the abolition of tariffs on the imports of vehicles into the USA, thus enabling Michigan’s car manufacturers to move their factories overseas. This industrial migration in turn caused massive unemployment and underemployment in Michigan. To prevent violent uprisings, besides controlling the mainstream churches, schools, and media, the Invisible Government deliberately initiated and sustained a prescription and illegal drugs dependence epidemic. One must live for a while in Motown—once the richest city in the Union—to really assimilate its decline. Through no fault of their own, countless Detroiters have been reduced to welfare, homelessness, hopelessness, or extreme poverty. In winter, one may see people standing outdoors, staying warm by huddling around a pile of burning tires. And, as in countries like Greece, the bankers even let go of the pretense of democracy—Detroit is administered by criminal poverty enforcers indirectly nominated by the bankers. The mandate of these enforcers is simple: Hand everything of value to their bosses and their cronies, and rob the people of the little dignity and possessions they might have left. It’s a crass class war, a textbook example of the economic hit manstrategy. Water, a basic human right, provides one macabre example of the bankers’ shock doctrine. As part of the austerity regime, thousands of people who cannot afford to pay for their water—including Detroiters living within sight of the mighty Detroit River—must do without running water in their homes. But those 9,000 and counting Detroiters are lucky. In Flint, a sister city to the north which suffered an almost identical fate of job losses and induced helplessness, the class war has led to the deliberate poisoning of the majority. And no, we are not talking here about the treacherous addition of fluoride to the drinking water of middle-class and poor Americans, where we only need mention in passing that fluoride is a waste product that does not prevent tooth decay but does cause “bone cancer in boys, bladder cancer, hypothyroidism, hip fractures and lower IQ in children.” In Flint, the bankers resorted to an additional, older, trick of biological warfare. That trick is lead, as in Arsenic and Old Lead. In April 2014, the austerity enforcer switched Flint’s water supply from the moderately-unsafe Detroit water system to the industrial cesspool otherwise known as the “Flint River.” Besides the unhealthy witch’s brew imbibed by the disempowered, unsuspecting, televised, and fluoridized poor inhabitants of Flint, this decision indirectly caused the “doubling or even tripling” of lead levels in children. Both the governor of the state and the EPA (Environmental Plundering Agency) were fully aware of the problem in advance, but felt that it was worth harming and dumbing down tens of thousands to save $100 aday. In reality, the actions of these agents of the Invisible Government have little to do with saving $36,500 a year—and everything to do with this: “In five years, these kids are going to have problems with special education. They’re going to have cognition problems. Seven to 10 years, they’re going to have behavioral problems.” These youngsters might, in other words, make obedient welfare recipients, inmates of “schools” and prisons, McDonald dishwashers, drug addicts—but pathetic revolutionaries. If you have any doubts that the real goal is poisoning children, not saving a miserly $36,500 a year, consider this. That same criminal Michigan “governor” behind the Detroit and Flint water warfare, gave “away billions of dollars in tax credits to major corporations and blown a huge hole in his budget” while simultaneously squeezing additional $900 million from average Michiganders. **** One can go on forever wading through the sewer that still calls itself the American government. Everywhere and always, there are lies, propaganda, dumbing down, corruption, theft, exploitation, poisoning, brutalization, and vicious class warfare. Thankfully, in this article we have other sturgeon to fry and will merely sum the above random sampler with the following words: As far as the USA and the West are concerned, James Corbett hit the nail on the head: The American government is a criminal network. But Corbett sees no fundamental distinction between America and Russia. Hence the question: Is the Russian Federation a criminal network too? Background Information: The Russian Catastroika “Will we continue looting and destroying Russia until nothing is left?”–Alexander Solzhenitsyn, 2000. Before evaluating Russia, we need to look back at some of the horrors visited on the Russian people by America’s rulers and their handpicked Russian quislings. In the 1990s, America’s de facto occupation of Russia sank that once-powerful country into chaos, poverty, criminality, corruption, assassinations, organized crime activities, and social discord. Washington and its quislings were running—and ruining—the country, controlling every aspect of life, including mainstream information sources. For instance, in 1993 Yeltsin attacked the Russian parliament with tanks for daring to protect the interests of the Russian people, and in 1998 most Russian banks went bankrupt. Here is how one historian described the aftermath of the Soviet collapse in just one satellite country: “Today Romania is a dumping ground for foreign goods. In the last 20 years, national industry has completely disappeared, and strategic sectors have been sold to foreign companies. Salaries have been cut back, unemployment is rising, drugs and prostitution are spreading. Today Romanians consider December 1989 not as a victory of democracy over dictatorship but as a tragedy and a mistake.” Washington also revved up its preparations for further disintegrating the Russian Federation, engineering rebellions inside that Federation itself. Washington also broke a promise not to expand NATO to previous members of the Warsaw Pact, and encroached on the very borders of the Russian Federation. Much of this changed for the better when Putin assumed the presidency. Does Russia Provide a Meaningful Alternative to America’s Invisible Government? “[The men of the Invisible Government] would continue to grow in strength, until they had the whole silly world, the whole credulous world, the whole ingenuous world, in their hands. Anyone who would challenge them, attempt to expose them, show them unconcealed and naked, would be murdered, laughed at, called mad, ignored, or denounced as a fantasy-weaver.”—Taylor Caldwell, 1972 (Captains and the Kings) To approach this topic, we must look at the record of the Russian government from a variety of angles. I. The Russian Phoenix Rises Again: 2000-2015 On his deathbed, Yeltsin must have realized the extent of his and Gorbachev’s folly: “Take care of Russia” he 21 Dec
THE TRUE REASON BEHIND THE 40-HOUR WORK WEEK & WHY WE ARE ECONOMIC SLAVES - (EV via anonhq) Economic slavery, or wage slavery, refers to one’s total and immediate dependence on wages to survive. Although people throughout history have had to work to get by, we now live in a culture where we are led to believe we have economic freedom, when unbeknownst to most citizens, we are in fact bound in servitude. We automatically accept a 40-hour workweek with meager hourly pay as normal, even though many work overtime and still struggle to survive. There are also those who make enough to live comfortably but are unable to request less hours—you either work 40 hours a week, or you don’t get to work at all. We submit when told what to wear, when we have to arrive and depart, when we’re allowed to eat, and even when we’re allowed to use the restroom. How is it we have come to allow this? The 40-hour-work week came about during the Industrial Revolution in Britain when at one point workers were putting in 10 to 16 hour days and began to protest. Working situations for Americans began to worsen as well, and by 1836, labor movement publications were also calling for a 40-hour workweek. Citizens in both situations were so overworked, an eight-hour day was easily accepted. This system is unnecessary now, if it ever was, but we still accept it due to the effects of our capitalist society. There are many contributing factors that have led to our current economic system and continued acceptance of the 40-hour workweek, three major factors being consumerism, inflation, and debt. First, it’s important to understand exactly what inflation is, how it works, and how it leads to debt. Inflation: To put inflation simply, let’s say the U.S. government needs money for whatever war they’ve decided to wage this year. They ask the Federal Reserve for a loan, and the Fed agrees to buy bonds (sort of like IOU’s) from the government in the amount of the requested loan. The U.S. government then prints up a bunch of pieces of paper that say “Treasury Bond” while at the same time, the Federal Reserve prints up a bunch of little pieces of paper that we know as money. A trade is made between the government and the Federal Reserve—the bonds for the money—and the U.S. government directly deposits this newly printed money in a different bank, which in turn, takes its cut in fees and interest. Voilà, money has been created out of thin air. Although this process takes place electronically now (only 3% of money is in physical form, the other 97% exists in computers) the problem either way is that it depletes the worth of the dollar. At one point in time, currency was worth gold. That was what gave money its value, but now the value of money is trusted to the Federal Reserve who has no moral objections to reducing that value by printing more money (basically legal counterfeit). For the cost of printing, the Federal Reserve creates money that the U.S. government has promised to pay back—money that didn’t even exist in the first place. It works like this with private bank loans to citizens as well. Each time a transaction of this sort happens, it reduces the value of actual currency, and thus we have inflation. One dollar in 1913 required $21.60 in 2007 to match its value. That’s a 96% devaluation since the Federal Reserve came into existence. How does this lead to economic slavery? By the debt inflation has caused. DEBT: Since money is created through loans, that means it’s created through debt. Money equals debt, and debt equals money. So the more money there is, the more debt there is, and vice versa. What this means is, if somehow the government and every citizen in debt were able to pay back those loans, there would not be a single dollar in circulation. Interest plays an important role in this equation as well. When you take out a loan and the bank gives you money that technically doesn’t exist, they also expect you to pay additional interest with it. If the money loaned is coming from the Federal Reserve, where is the money for the interest supposed to come from? The answer is nowhere. That means no matter what, the nation will never be able to get out of debt, and that is exactly the purpose of this meticulously orchestrated system. Like a toss of the coin, somebody somewhere will always go bankrupt to make up for the interest that is being paid with even more debt. And so, as the nation sinks further in the hole while the cost of living increases, surviving in the economy becomes more difficult. This desperation to survive, coupled with the fact that we were born into this system, is ultimately what causes us to accept the 40-hour workweek without a moment’s thought. So now we understand the element that forces us to accept our predicament, but how does the 40-hour workweek benefit banks and corporations? After all, studies show that the average office worker gets less than three hours worth of work done in an 8-hour work shift, and according to reports, US corporate profits are soaring while wages are declining. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures show that productivity has increased at a 2.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter, while hourly pay only increased 1.3 percent in the third quarter, and this has been the basic pattern for some time—it adds up after a while. Corporate profits are at their highest level in at least 85 years, so why aren’t we being paid more, working less, and providing additional jobs to those who need them? This brings us to consumerism. CONSUMERISM: Consumerism is defined by the Merriam-Webster dictionary as: the belief that it is good for people to spend a lot of money on goods and services. At one point in time this belief may have rang true, but with the current capitalist system and cost of living, consumerism has begun to have negative effects on our society, especially when you take inflation and the increasing debt into consideration. The more we buy, the more we feed the corporations and banks who are in turn pushing us into economic slavery. Since the 1800’s and the Industrial Revolution, “consumers” have been spending increasing amounts of money on frivolous purchases. This over-indulgence has been nurtured and fed by the corporations using commercialism (the attitude or actions of people who are influenced too strongly by the desire to earn money or buy goods rather than by other values—Merriam-Webster) as a tool. Psychological insinuations have been planted into society’s subconscious for generations through consumer advertisements which have ultimately led to certain habits and beliefs. Some examples are: “Buy now pay later” – The General Motors Acceptance Corporation (GMAC) started this mindset when it was established in 1919 and began to promote giving loans to people who bought cars. Americans eventually started to use the new credit plans on just about everything. “Keeping up with the Joneses” – Commonly thought to be the beginning of the American consumer culture, this mindset began when GM introduced the yearly automobile model change. People wanted to have the latest model each year, and soon this idea spread out. Most of us, whether we want to admit it or not, are familiar with this mentality. Rather than keeping our old toaster that works perfectly fine, we want the new retro-style stainless steel model because it looks swanky sitting on our kitchen counter. “1929-1945 Depression and War” – Soon after The Depression came WWII, during which advertisers promised products to be available when there was peace. As a result, customers (consumers) were eager to take up spending immediately after the war was over. “Peace” – When the war ended, consumer optimism and economic growth accompanied victory. “Charge it!” – Credit cards were first promoted through the Diners Club—a charge card company that services affluent and well-traveled individuals from around the world. Other companies followed suit and started advertising credit cards as a “time-saving device” rather than a way to spend money that wasn’t actually there. “Bigger is better” – During the 1970’s, companies began to send credit cards out by the masses to those who had not requested them. While Americans had already been developing the idea that “bigger is better”, the credit card boom ended up exploiting that idea. Now people had the means to obtain extravagant items they couldn’t before, even though it put many in colossal debt. Congress soon had to regulate the credit card boom, and ban sending cards to those who never requested them in the first place. Companies in all kinds of industries hold a huge stake in the public’s penchant to be careless with their money, and they encourage this habit of casual or non-essential spending when they can. For example, in the documentary The Corporation, a marketing psychologist discussed a method she used to increase sales that involved encouraging children to nag their parents to buy toys. Studies showed that 20% to 40% of purchases of this sort resulted after children nagged their parents. “You can manipulate consumers into wanting, and therefore buying, your products. It’s a game.” Lucy Hughes, co-creator of “The Nag Factor”. The 40-hour workweek is the ultimate tool for corporations to sustain this culture of over-indulgent spending. Under our current working conditions, people are forced to build a life in the evenings and their days-off. We find ourselves more inclined to spend heavily on entertainment and conveniences because we rarely have any free time. When we do have time to ourselves, it’s usually fleeting, and we eventually find ourselves neglecting those activities which are free—walking, exercising, reading, meditating, sports, hobbies, etc.—because they take too much time. While having extra money comes at the sacrifice of personal time for some, for others they not only are robbed of their personal freedom, but they struggle to make ends meet on top of it. The “perfect” consumer works full-time, earns a fair amount of money, indulges during their free time, and somehow just makes it by each month. However, even those who don’t earn fair wages sometimes find themselves wasting small increments of money on unnecessary items for the wrong reasons—a cup of Starbucks here, a McDonald’s cheeseburger there, and those really cool fuzzy dice hanging from the rear-view of your 1993 Honda Civic. Any way you look at it, we have become an unhappy, mindless, over-worked society. We buy silly items for a few moments of happiness before getting bored and moving on. We feel a need to keep up with fads, or to fulfill our childhood vision of what adulthood would be like. We hide our insecurities, avoid issues, and replace psychological needs with material items. By keeping society’s free time scarce, people will pay more for convenience, gratification, and any other relief they can buy. Keeping America unhealthy has become extremely profitable for big-business, and so far their efforts have paid-off beautifully. Our society has been transformed into an industry fueled by economic slavery, and consumerism is a key factor in this corrupt system—one the people have direct influence over. Consumers are the only ones who can stop consuming. Sources: http://www.collective-evolution.com/2016/12/20/the-true-reason-behind-the-40-hour-work-week-why-we-are-economic-slaves/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Collective-evolution+%28Collective+Evolution%29 Cain, David. True Activist. Dec 7, 2014. (http://www.trueactivist.com/your-lifestyle-has-already-been-designed-the-real-reason-for-the-forty-hour-workweek/) Ethos. Dir. Pete McGrain. Cinema Libre Studio, 2011. Documentary Graph supplied by: (http://economagic.com/) Jones, Shannon. World Socialist Web Site. Dec 4, 2014. (http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/12/04/wage-d04.html) Mt. Holyoke College Research Study. American Consumerism and the Global Environment. 2009. (http://www.mtholyoke.edu/~kelle20m/classweb/wp/index.html) Zeitgeist: Addendum. Dir. Peter Joseph. GMP LLC, 2008. Documentary.  20 Dec
Final Reminder Solstice Meditation December 21st - We dreamt and hoped that a transition to a new life on Gaia would be initiated 4 years ago on December 21st 2012. Many believed that this would be the day that a major Ascension would begin. The Mothers Tsunami of Love has been affecting us strongly since then in wave after wave bringing us closer to becoming the true loving beings that we truly are in our hearts. The entire Co of Heaven are working with us, more than ever before right now and it would seem that we have recently made huge progress. We all know what we want to see asap namely ‘Full Disclosure’ and soon after ‘First Contact’ with our Galactic brothers and sisters. Please join with us here at PFC and with Lightworkers all over Gaia in this important solstice meditation at 1044 AM GMT on December 21st. Here is a repeat of this call to meditation. MAKE THIS VIRAL!!! WINTER / SUMMER SOLSTICE MEDITATION December 5, 2016 by Nova Biscotti It is time again for us to take action! On this coming Winter/Summer Solstice, we will join together to activate the grid of light for the planet – anchoring the energies of Ascension while stabilizing the consciousness of humanity to such an extent that the surface population is ready for the EVENT. We will be doing this meditation collectively on the moment of the Winter/Summer Solstice at 10:44 UTC on December 21, 2016 (Note – this is equivalent to 10:44 AM GMT on the same date).  Click on the following link to convert this to your particular time zone: http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/fixedtime.html?p1=1440&iso=20161221T1044&msg=Winter+Solstice+Meditation&sort=2 Here is the full repeated text with some extra video translations available now. MAKE THIS VIRAL!!! WINTER SOLSTICE MEDITATION Re-Posted on PFC on 20th December 2016 at 1515 PM CET20 Dec
Why Natural Medicine is NOT “Alternative” - Natural medicine was once the only medicine. It wasn’t considered “an alternative.” That only happened much later, after synthetically produced, patent drugs came onto the scene, and profit and not safety and efficacy became the ultimate priority. For example, check out this amazing 1930’s pharmacist’s map of ‘herbal cures” recently released to the public. As you can see, most “drugs” in the United States were not too long ago extracted from botanicals. So, given where we are today (natural substances are feared and synthetic drugs revered) how do we de-marginalize the most ancient, food, herb and mind-body based methods of healing?  With the science. As you know, at GreenMedInfo.com we have spent many painstaking years sorting through, data-mining, and indexing thousands of studies proving our ancestors and many billions still in the less developed world were and are still right: Nature provides elegant solutions to virtually any problem the drug-based medical model says only it has the right treatment for. The problem is not a lack of evidence. While clinical trial work is prohibitively expensive, there are still hundreds of thousands of studies that indicate science does in fact support natural healing. In fact, there is so much research that it can become extremely overwhelming. This is why we came up with a solution called “Focused Research.” This toolset provides enables a laser like resolution in pulling out from the seemingly infinite field of data just the studies you want to focus on, as well the ability to create professional PDFs from them, making it easy to share  far and wide!   I am excited to show you what I mean in my new video on “Getting Focused” with Activism and Insight below…   Source: http://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/why-natural-medicine-not-alternative18 Dec
This is what you will do to save Earth. To Save Earth, Visualize - Visualization also works through harmonics. Visualization is harmonics. Link from David Hopkinshttps://www.facebook.com/notes/david-hopkins/chakras/10208085497949467 You will visualize the successive transmission of energy from the base of your being into the highest most refined layer. The visualization of color frequency tone, will occur alone or with conscious generation of sound frequency tone. When these combine and erect a visual internal spine overlayed within and around your physical and silent external spine, you will have generated the portion of your light body relative to the sustenance of your existence on the physical plane. This plane is the heart center realm of the living cosmic universal being. The heart center is challenged by the ego and the imbalanced darkness of the night of the soul. To strengthen, we are to balance and organize the darkness below, and the ego through the relative expansion of the visualization frequencies and sound harmonic tones of the corresponding higher energy centers. This is what you will do to save Earth. This is what you have already done. To face the darkness, is to know the light. The muscular system acquires tensegrity. A balanced sense of tension and relaxation throughout the body according to the internal external flow of energy and physical posture. The spine attains a posture that allows the energy and blood to flow gently.   source: https://augtellez.wordpress.com/2016/12/17/this-is-what-you-will-do-to-save-earth-to-save-earth-visualize/  17 Dec
Safe Sturdy Stylish Savvy Hexa Car - Tata Motors have soft launched their latest Passenger vechicle ,Hexa during the last week of December 2016. The launch was through an event between 23 and 25 December. As an Invitee representing Indiblogger,the Indian Blogging community, I attended the event at White Orchids,adjacent to Manyata Business Park,Nagvara,Bangalore on 24 December. ​ If one were to look at the car once wishes to buy in terms of safety,style,comfort and performance,the Hexa fits the bill. Sturdy to look at without being monstrous or ugly,the Hexa has an important feature that allows one the luxury of not closing the eyes while the car is climbing up or swerves. ​ The Hexa drives uphill with least distance clearence ,effortlessly with excellent road grip. The car goes up upto  31 degrees inclination with least discomfort. As the car swerves one does not feel the strain for the Hexa moves at angle of 40 degrees. And there is good road grip. As a layman not versed in car mechanics or skills in driving, I can assert that one does not get jittery during these manevoures. And these manevoures are common on Indian roads. Well,  I get jittery, my son and son in law tell me not to close my eyes,especially when I sit in the front seat. The legroom and head clearance in the car is quite comfortable and one need not twist and turn to be seated. Seven seats ensure a family can travel in comfort. Another area while traveling in car is the worry of potholes and stagnant water. With a clearence of 400 units against a normal 220, the Hexa does not get bogged down by slush. And the pothole shocks are barely noticed. For the comfort seekers,the interior is rich without being gaudy. With options of 4 to 10speakers,Tweeters,subwoffer,the music lovers can enjoy. And phone facility. For the driver, one has  optional Driver Information System(DIS). Fiur Driving Modes, Auto,Comfort,Dynamic and Rough Road. Reversing sensors ensure smooth reversing. And it is Diesel powered. Mileage is said to be around 14 km per liter in city and 17.6 in Highways.   Expected date of launch, Mid January 2017. Tata Hexa Specifications Length x Width x Height 4788 x 1903 x 1791 mm Kerb Weight -NA- Wheel Type and Size 19 inch alloys Ground Clearance 200 mm Engine Type/ Displacement 2.2 litre Varicor Diesel / Varicor 400 Diesel Power 150 PS/156 PS Torque 320 Nm/400 Nm Transmission (Gearbox) 5 Speed Manual/ 6 speed Manual and 6 speed Auto Mileage 12-15 KMPL (estimated) Four Wheel Drive Yes Air Conditioner Type Automatic Climate Control Power Windows Yes (4) Central Locking Yes Steering Audio Controls Yes Audio System Yes (Touchscreen) Airbags Yes (6) ABS Yes Seen above are the official Tata Hexa specifications. The engine in the Tata Hexa is the familiar 2.2 litre VARICOR 320 and VARICOR 400 diesel motors. The more powerful motor produces 154 bhp and 400 Nm torque. These engines also power the Tata Safari Storme. The top models of Hexa will be available with either a 6-speed manual or a 6-speed automatic transmission. A torque on demand four-wheel drive system will be available on the top-end variant.   Guesstimate of price. Tata Hexa Price in India Tata Hexa XE 4×2 MT Rs 11.99 Lakh Tata Hexa XM 4×2 MT Rs 14.43 Lakh Tata Hexa XT 4×2 MT Rs 16.70 Lakh Tata Hexa XT 4×4 MT Rs 17.70 Lakh Tata Hexa XMA 4×2 AT Rs 16.45 Lakh Tata Hexa XMA 4×4 AT Rs 17.50 Lakh Tata Hexa XTA 4×2 AT Rs 17.75 Lakh   For more, visit the first link or you may download Tata Hexa mobile application at Google play. http://hexa.tatamotors.com http://www.carblogindia.com/tata-hexa-price-launch-review/  Filed under: Uncategorized 24 Dec
Mantra To Avoid Divorce Marital Disharmony - I receive quite a few mails regarding personal problems from the Readers ,seeking solution to their personal Issues and I suggest solutions both from the empirical point and from the Mantra aspect. Most report that their problems are resolved. I have noticed that the issues fall under these issues. 1.Seeking a child. 2.Financial difficuties. 3.Court problems. 4.Health Issues,physical and mental. 5.Delayed Marriages.   One important issue about which I have been receiving quite a lot of mails,to my regret, is marital incompatibility,strained relationships and divorce.   I am pained. The Before I proceed to provide Mantra to help prevent break up of marriages,Improve strained relationships, I would like to share a few thoughts derived out of experience , interacting with a lot people and by counseling people.   Family is the fundamental unit of society and human beings,gregarious by Nature,need others for their well being,physical,mental,emotional and spirititual. I have come across people who declare that they do not any one for anything . Least of all a marriage. I have quite a few friends who are women( connotation would differ if I say girl friends),who declared about 30 years ago that they did not like marriage,wanted to be independant and concentrate on their carrers. I have met them recently and meet them often. Some of them are well known in Fine Arts,Communications and all of them are successful professionals in their chosen field. None of them is worth less than Rupees one crore and palatial homes in prime localities in Bangalore with servants galore to take care of them. Being close friends ,they  tell me that  they feel that they have lost out in life,despite their material success and were anguished that they have none to call their own nor any one in whom they can confide in. They admitted that professional success and a family need not be in conflict with each other and wished they had a family and pursued their ambitions and managed both. It is too late for them now. The point is when two individuals come together there is bound to be conflicts for if there is no conflict ,it is no relationship. The skill lies in managing the two and survive. Life is a question of adaptation,management and survival. If you think deep,you will know that we have been compromising throughout our Life right from childhood. And it is the Law of Life. Had we not,we would not have survived. There is a mistaken impression that we compromise for others. We compromise because we want to be happy. Nothing wrong in this. One marries because one wants to and one feels one would be happy if one marries. No body marries for altruism. But as in life’s choices every thing comes with a unique problem of its own and one has to manage. Are there not conflicts in Fine Arts ,in other professions? Do people not adjust and manage? Then why shy away from marriage? In my opinion it is the fear of responsibility one has to bear with marriage.Marriage is not mere physical. It has emotional and spiritual side as well. And companionship. One needs company after one crosses 50,not merely for Sex. Unfortunately ,one tends to equate marriage with Sex,thanks to western thoughts! In India marriages are beyond physical and they are spiritual too.Lord Shiva carries Uma as a part of His body,Vishnu in His heart and Brahma in His tongue. Shiva and Parvati and regarded as words and meaning,one has no relevance withiut the other. My point is that one has to adapt in marriages. No one has an ideal husband or wife and it is not possible as our ideas keep changing. One has to remeber that one’s partner may have high expectations from the other. These two do not meet.So one has to adapt. And if one divorces with whom one is going to get married again? You could not adjust in one relationship and what is the guarantee you can survive the other? And in a married life strains are bound to happen.The trick is to face it and be done with it. Do not carry forward the fight to the next.And respect other’s privacy. It means the ability to share what needs to be shared and what need not. Being open does not mean you bare it all. Share to spouse what is likely to be of relevance to him/her. However there are cases of infidelity,harassment. In these cases one may go in for divorce. Not for his or her movie choices are different,does not respect your relatives/friends. To mend strained relationships and prevent divorce, please follow the mantra provided here.     Mantra in Hindi:    “ऊँ श्रीं ह्रीं पूर्ण गृहस्थ सुख सिद्धये ह्रीं श्रीं ऊँ नम:”Mantra in English: “Om Shreem Hreem Puran Grihsth Sukh Shidhye Hreem Shreem Om Namah”One may chant the first sloka of the Soundaryalahai’Sivah sakthyaayukthoo’ as well. This mantra was revealed to Uma by Sage Durvasa to help Her marry Lord Shiva. Filed under: Hinduism Tagged: divorce, husband wife, lifestyle, Mantra for divorce, Mantra for marital disharmony, Marriage, Marriage mantra, Relationship 23 Dec
Rama People Nicaragua Dravidian Origin? - I have written on the spread of Santana Dharma,Hinduism throughout the world. Santana Dharma was present throughout the world since Lord Rama’s period,when the land mass different from what it is today. Rama Empire encompassed the world and Rama waged a War against the Atlantis people. Please check my article Rama dropped Atom Bomb in Harappa? The Rama People, Nicaragua. Image credit. National Geographic.Through various articles I had written that Sanatana Dharma was present in, Sri Lanka,Indonesia,Malaysia,Vietnam,Cambodia,Korea,Laos,Japan,New Zealand,Australia,China,Russia,Siberia,Arctic,Antarctica,Iran,Iraq,Lebanon,Turkey,Greece,Italy,Bulgaria,Romania,England,Ireland,Spain,…. Latin America,US,Central America… Please google the country+ramanan50 for relevant articles. About a year back I wrote that there seems to be scant information on African Religion which pre dates Christianity. It is dismissed as a tribal religion with superstitions. The same patronizing attitude is found when people talk about Africans whether they are in Africa or Central America. It is incorrect to say so. The African civilisation is quite ancient and Africa was a part of either Atlantis or Lemuria or both. Please read my artcles on Lemuria and Atlantis for details. The term Rama seems to have been prevalent in early religions. Sumerian and Minoan civilizations speak of Rama and Rama,Dasaratha and Bharata are found in Sumerian Kings List. Lord Rama’s Chapel is found in UR,Iraq. The land mass we call as Australia  Americas and Africa were once a part of a super continent,Rodina. Santana Dharma was present throughout Rodina. Australian tribes perform Shiva’s Trinetra Dance,The Third Eye Dance of Shiva and Australian tribes are found with Lord Vishnu’s marks in their body. And Lord Rama’s ancestor Vaivaswatha Manu was from the southern region of equator and meditated in Madagascar when a Tsunami struck the southern region. We find the presence of Rama people in Nicaragua! People are unable to expalin the origin of these people. The language they speak is called the Rama Language. It belongs to Kriol group with various subgroups. The language sounds to be of Tamil origin. The Cameroon people speak rudimentary but ancient Tamil even today. Please read my article on this. Considering these facts one may postulate that the Rama people might have Tamil,Sanatana Dharma origins. Research is to be done Shall be researching in this area.   ‘ Thousands of years old stone pyramids lay intact deep in the jungle of Indio Maíz, southwestern Nicaragua. Some call it a lost city of ancient Indians, but little is known about the history of these structures. The site, called Canta Gallo, is sacred to Rama people, descendants of the Chibcha Indians. “This is where our ancestors used to meet”, our guide Margarito says and points at a giant stair-like stone pyramid amid ground vegetation. He sits calmly on the stairs to tell us some incredible stories with his broken Creole English, mixing in words of Spanish like the Rama Indians do. We had traveled eight hours in a small fiberglass boat from already remote San Juan de Nicaragua, overnighted deep in the jungle with chickens and bats, and trampled one hour through thick vegetation to get to Canta Gallo. I didn’t know what to expect, when Salomon, a Rama Indian, who initially brought us down the Rio Indío, asked in the morning if we would like to see the pyramids of Canta Gallo. For sure I wasn’t expecting this. After trudging past a few smaller, turtle-like stone structures and those stairs, we finally arrived in the main area, where we spent an hour or so zigzagging midst the ancient Indian pyramids and walls. Rays of the early morning sun cast an air of magic over gigantic rock formations. Bluish gray stone slabs are piled up to form huge stone balls and pyramids that might be over 20 meters in height. The Rama told us that these structures are known to date back from 3000 to 5000 years. The Rama are an indigenous people living on the eastern coast of Nicaragua. Since the start of European colonization, the Rama population has declined as a result of disease, conflict, and loss of territory. In recent years, however, the Rama population has increased to around 2,000 individuals. A majority of the population lives on the island of Rama Cay, which is located in the Bluefields Lagoon. Additional small Rama communities are dispersed on the mainland from Bluefields to Greytown.[1] The Rama are one of three main indigenous groups on Nicaragua’s Caribbean coast. Due to centuries of colonial suppression the Rama people’s native language is facing extinction. Language revitalization efforts have been made in recent years and have achieved early success in Rama communities. Rama territory is currently being threatened by the Nicaraguan government and foreign investors, who are seeking to develop a transoceanic canal and to extract resources … The Rama culture is dependent upon traditional self-sufficient strategies in order to obtain desired substances. While some Rama engage in small-scale commercial fishing, a majority of the population still practices traditional occupations such as subsistence fishing and subsistence farming. Mutual assistance is an important practice in Rama communities and is relied upon for cultural and economic stability.[11] Sexual division of labor exists among the Rama, with males responsible for hunting, fishing, and planting, while the females partake in gathering and domestic duties. Prior to the arrival of missionaries, the Rama population on Rama Cay reportedly lived in homes lacking exterior and interior w The word Kriol could mean one of the following ethnic groups: Belizean Kriol people or Kriols Upper Guinea Kriol people It could also mean any of the following Creole languages: The English-based Australian Kriol language The English-based Belizean Kriol language, also called Belizean Creole The English-based Colón Creole (Kriol) spoken in Panama The Portuguese-based Guinea. References and citations. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rama_people   http://www.bizarreglobehopper.com/blog/2014/09/22/canta-gallo-rama-indian-pyramids-indio-maiz/comment-page-2/ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kriol  Filed under: Hinduism Tagged: Creole, Kriol, Lord Rama, Nicaragua people, Rama people, Rama people hinduism 22 Dec
Subterranean Library Chamber Ekambareswara Kanchipuram Key To Lemuria MU Atlantis? - The issue daunting the Historians of the West who painstakingly unearth evidence on Lemuria and Atlantis is that, as I observe,  they are unable to corroborate the evidence of these places with records’ ,save Plato’s Atlantis. Though scholars accept Plato’s works like The Republic,they are reluctant to admit his observations on Atlantis,saying that they need corroborative evidence. Surprising ! They did not need such evidence for Plato’s other works. Their effort is restricted by their search of corroboration from the texts in the west,especially the Bible which they consider to be the oldest text. They also take reference to texts,hieroglyphics from Egypt. They are probable unaware of the oldest records of India,the Vedas,Puranas,Ramayana and Mahabharata. Nor are they aware of another ancient language of India which is a mine of historical information. It is the Tamil language,which is is atleast 20,000 years old. Ekambareswarar Temple, Kanchipuram,Tamil Nadu India.Nor are these researchers aware of the ancient temples of India,some of them 5000 years old. They have vast information in the form of Epigraphs and writing in ancient Tamil and Grantha script. What  I am attempting to do,through my blog , is to link and fill in the gaps of these researches,with explanatins from Sanskrit,Tamil Texts and Epigraphy found in the temples. Also I verify the local legends associated with the Ramayana,Mahabharata,Puranas with the help of scientific tools like Carbon dating,Infra red,Geology,Astronomy and references in foreign classics. To my surprise most of these so called legends stand the test of science in terms of antiquity and events. I have been researching into Atlantis,MU,Lemuria,Tamils and the history of India and have published articles. I was intrigued by the hypothesis of Lemuria,MU and Atlantis had existed together. Records from Indian texts,Tamil and Sumeria speak of these places having existed. They speak of four earliest civilizations. Uighur, Atlantis, Lemuria and Lord Rama. For more details plese read my article Rama dropped Atom Bomb in Harappa. James Churchward has proposed that the MU civilisation had existed and might have links to Tamils. I have written on the possibility of a secret chamber in Kanchipuram Ekambareswara temple in Tamil Nadu. This temple has ten subterranean chambers. While nine chambers are dedicated to the Rishis,with details about them,the tenth one has writings on them referring to MU. It may be noted that MU is a prefix in Tamil which denotes antiquity. The City of Madurai was called Mudur and it referred to old Madurai,Then Madurai which was located somewhere near Madagascar, then a part of Lemuria. Also the capital of Chera Kings,Vanchi was called Vanchi Mudur which was located in Lemuria and it is not the present Karur ,Tamil Nadu. Now to Churchward on Mu,Tamils and Kanchipuram Ekambareswara Temple. Time that the Archaeological department of India and scholars take a seriuos note and investigate. ‘ in the subterranean system there are 10 chambers. In 9 chambers they stored the tablets. In the first 3 chambers the tablets are made fom solid black stone. In the next 3 chambers the tablets are made from gold. In tha last 3 chambers the tablets made from solid silver and brass and an mix of metals wat they callad pachalogha – the so called five holy metals. The 10th chamber is like an small temple with an black Shiva lingam and the statues of the seven holy rishis. In the 9 chambers you find some inscriptions at the walls – they describe the rishis puranas, what means, the live and the deeds of the rishis. I made some pictures from these inscriptions… Reference and citation.   http://www.my-mu.com/bon/b03-2011_1.html   chamber no. 1 and chamber no. 4 the priest, who guided me down there to to library, allowed me to take some pictures of the tablets. As attachment of this mail you see one tablet from chamber no. 1 At chamber no. 4 the priest only allowed me to take pictures from 2 tablets, not from all this books there. The 2 tablets he showed me, are a ittle bit damaged. But you can see clearly the inscriptions. The second tablet from chamber no. 4 Athe end of my visit at this subterranean library the priest, who guided me (his name is Pachayappa), presented a small gift to me. This very small tablet is made from brass, in my opinion. I am not very sure, if it was part of the tablets down there at the library of MU or it was made later. But Pachayappa told me, that the inscriptions at these small tablet are some kind of key to the understanding of the inscriptions of the other tablets. This small item is still with me and I am trying to breach its code. But surely I will need a little help.      Filed under: Hinduism, Tamils Tagged: Atlantis, Ekambareswara temple, Kanchipuram, Lemuria, Lemuria Kanchipuram, MU, MU Kanchipuram, Tamils MU 21 Dec
Shivas City Swastika In Antarctica Emerging? - Some interesting scientific information has been validated about Antarctica. This seems to have a bearing on Sanatana Dharma. What is this information? City found in Antarctica1.Piri Reis Map of Turkey of 1513, has detailed description of Antarctica ,while it was only in 1921, Antarctica was mapped. 2.Charles Hapgood, a Historian and researcher proposed that there was a shift in the Earth’s Crust once in 20,000 years and the land mass moved to Antarctica. 3.The forward for this Book was written by Einstein who agreed with this theory and requested Eisenhower, President of US to send an expedition.Eisenhower sent an expedition and the project ceased mysteriously. 4.Later,Graham Hancock prosed that an ancient civilisation existed in Antarctia and it was destroyed by a Great flood that took place around 10400 BC. 5.The civilisation which moved to Antarctica or the civilizations that inhabited were  the Olmech,Aztec, Mayas,Egyptians and MUs. Antarctica map. Image by BBC6.In 2012 ,Google Map showed a 14 Mile strip of structure in Antarcic Ice and it was dated 12,000 years ago.   7.The American legends speak of Atlan, a White Island in the South. 8.NASA rejected this without assigning any reason. 9.A TV Crew  from California went missing after an expedition . ‘ A mission by U.S. Navy SEALs are the key elements in a story that claims extensive ancient ruins have been found under the ice of Antarctica. That’s according to archaeologist and adventurer Jonathan Gray of World Education Research Ltd in his free newsletter Archaeology News Flash. A spokesman for the company is reported to have said at the time that “The U.S. government said it will seek to block the airing of a video found by Navy rescuers in Antarctica that purportedly reveals that a massive archaeological dig is underway two miles (3,200 meters) beneath the ice.” “The AtlantisTV production crew that shot the video is still missing.” reports Gray. Attorneys for the Beverly Hills-based AtlantisTV stressed at the time that the company’s primary concern was for the safety and welfare of the crew. But they stated they would vigorously oppose any attempts to censor material that is clearly in the public interest and public domain. The icy continent of Antarctica, they pointed out, belongs to no nation. “The U.S. has no jurisdiction there.” McMurdo Station Antarctica “That video is the property of AtlantisTV, said a company spokesman, We shot it. It’s ours. And as soon as it is rightfully restored to us, were going to air it. End of story.” WATCHED BY NAVY OFFICERS ​ “Two Navy officers who saw the tape described its contents to National Science Foundation (NSF) researchers upon their return to the Amundsen-Scott Station at the South Pole,” asserts Gray in his recent newsletter. ( http://archaeologyhub.info/ruins-of-ancient-city-found-in-antarctica/ Now to what Hndu History and Tamil Literature says on this subject. 1.Sanatana Dharma speaks of Seven Islands,Saptha Dweepa and there is a mention of a White Island Landmass. 2.Hindu texts and the Epic Ramayana speak of Ramayana having taken place at least a million years ago. 3.Ramas date has been confirmed. 4.Rama is mentioned as a King of Sumeria. 5.Sumerians were the descendants of Hindu/Tamil Kings. 6.Olmechs,Aztecs,Mayas were descendants of The Tamils. 7.Lemuria is detailed in The Tamil Sangam Classics. 8.According to them ,the land mass was devoured by a Tsunami. 9.The land mass of Sanatana Dharma encompassed 34 million sauare miles. 10.Lord Shiva’s marriage took place around 40 million years ago. ‘ ‘Eighty million years ago, India was approximately 6400 km (3968 miles) south of the Eurasian plate. Separating the two was the Tethys Sea. The Indo-Australian tectonic plate – containing the continent of Australia, the Indian subcontinent, and surrounding ocean – was pushed northward by the convection currents generated in the inner mantle. For millions of years, India made its way across the sea toward the Eurasian plate. As India approached Asia, around 40 million years ago, the Tethys Sea began to shrink and its seabed slowly pushed upwards. The Tethys Sea disappeared completely around 20 million years ago and sediments rising from its seabed formed a mountain range. When India and Tibet collided, instead of descending with the plate, the relatively light sedimentary and metamorphic rock that makes up the subcontinent of India pushed against Tibet, forcing it upwards, and created a massive mountain fold. The Himalayas.’ https://ramanan50.wordpress.com/2015/03/22/shiva-uma-wedding-agastya-to-south-40-million-years-tectonics-proof/ 11.Sage Agastya moved to South of Vindhya Mountains around 5000 B C and about  million years ago as well. 12.Sage Agastya is found in New Zealand. 13.Shiva’s Trinetra,Third Eye dance is performed ,even today ,by Australian Tribes. 14.Australian Tribes are found wearing Vishnu marks in their body. 15.Mu Civilization was part of Sanatana Dharma/Tamils. 16.The The Tamil sunken city of Poompuhar has been dated 20,000 years ago. 17.Lord Shiva pre dates Sanatana Dharma. 18.The Tripura ,rotating cities of Asuras was destroyed by Shiva and it was located in Argentina,which was a part of Lemuria,which encompassed Antarctica. 19.Th0ugh Shiva’s marriage took place in Kailash in the present India, the land mass could have moved to Antarctic. ‘Scientists understand that Earth’s magnetic field has flipped its polarity many times over the millennia. In other words, if you were alive about 800,000 years ago, and facing what we call north with a magnetic compass in your hand, the needle would point to ‘south.’ This is because a magnetic compass is calibrated based on Earth’s poles. The N-S markings of a compass would be 180 degrees wrong if the polarity of today’s magnetic field were reversed. Many doomsday theorists have tried to take this natural geological occurrence and suggest it could lead to Earth’s destruction. But would there be any dramatic effects? The answer, from the geologic and fossil records we have from hundreds of past magnetic polarity reversals, seems to be ‘no.’ Reversals are the rule, not the exception. Earth has settled in the last 20 million years into a pattern of a pole reversal about every 200,000 to 300,000 years, although it has been more than twice that long since the last reversal. A reversal happens over hundreds or thousands of years, and it is not exactly a clean back flip. Magnetic fields morph and push and pull at one another, with multiple poles emerging at odd latitudes throughout the process. Scientists estimate reversals have happened at least hundreds of times over the past three billion years. And while reversals have happened more frequently in “recent” years, when dinosaurs walked Earth a reversal was more likely to happen only about every one million years. (  https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/11/111130171105.htm ) 20.Daksha, father of Uma hid inthe Antarctic to escape Shiva’s wrath. 21.A massive Swastika is found in Antarctica. Considering these facts it stands to reason that the city that is found in Antarctica was Shiva’s city and Tamils lived there as  a close associate of Sanatana Dharma. Please read my articles on each of the points I have mentioned in this articles as providing links to all the articles in one post is difficult due to technical reasons.Filed under: Hinduism Tagged: Antarctic History, Antarctic Shiva, Antarctica, Atlantis Antarctic, Lemuria, structure in Antarctic, Tamil History 19 Dec
Mankind History Dates Much  Earlier Hinduism Validated By Science - I have received a few comments on some of my articles which date some temple, events a long way back. I have written that, Thiruvannamalai,Tamil Nadu is 3.94 Billion Years old, Tirupati 2100 Million Years old, A Million year old site found in Chennai indicated the presence of Tamil Civilization, Jwalapuram, Cuddapah,Telengana is 74,000 Yeas old, Poompuhar , Tamil Nadu, which has been dated 20,000 year back had advanced Tamil Civilization, Million Year old Kannada Brahmi  script has been found in Karnataka, 120 Million year old  3 D Map has been found. Kailash Iraq Romania interconnected tunnels These are some of the articles and I have not listed all the articles which predate our known History   or what we have been taught a History. Below is a comment on one of the articles. ‘I don’t think temples can be dated as 3.94 Billion years orTirupati 2100 million years. These could be ages of rocks where the temples were built! That far back in time man had not come into the picture! FC On Sat, Nov 26, 2016 at 12:54 PM, Ramani’s blog wrote: > ramanan50 posted: “There are quite a few ancient temples of India which > are in good shape. Some of them have been assigned dates before > Christ,BC,though reluctantly despite strong evidence that they belong to > much earlier times. Please check my articles on 5000 years old te” > Common refrain of most of the comments are, 1.Human Being did not exist in the time frame mentioned in some of my articles. 2.Many of the artifacts mentioned in my article could not have been in existence(?) because it conflicts with  the known Ice Age, Iron Age, Copper Age and Bronze Age. 3.Fact mentioned in my article areMyths and they are not scientifically validated. http://www.iflscience.com/environment/there-really-ancient-nuclear-reactor-africa/all/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homo_sapiens http://phys.org/news/2016-11-geologist-uncovers-billion-year-old-fossils-bacteria.html I would like to rercord my coments on the dates assigned to them. a)The dates assigned to Homo Spaiens are arrived at mainly on the basis of. human skeletons,remains,living quarters,rock/cave paintings,fossils available . These have been dated through Carbon dating in the case of fossils,places and landmarks/rocks. Carbon dating becomes useless for periods going back greater than 50,0000 yeras.Please read my article on Carbon dating. 2.Infra red dating is used for other evidnece, and in some cases for even the skeletons and land mass. 3.Geology is used to determine the dates for determing the dates of mountains and rocks. The point is Carbon dating can not determine the dates beyound 5000 years ago. Infra read and geologiocal dating can determine the total mass available for examination and not the specific part. That is let us say we have a rock.The rock sample may be dated by this method . It can not date the indents in the rock , say a Foor print. Average is arrived about the age of the material, taking into account the various factors in various parts of the sample and the factors foud in various parts neede not be the same.So an average is arrived at. More over ther atmospheric conditions existing, had existed have to be taken into acoount as also the changes in the atmosphere due to spots, Atomic blasts, which we know had happened. So if  we have a rock sample dated at 500 BC, it is best an educated guess , not a confirmed case beyond doubt. This is due to inadequacies of the technology involved. The same drawback is present is the other tools of dating like Infra Red, which have inbulit restrictions on. Hence the dates we now have are at best gueses based on information not fully correct. On the other hand how doesw one determine the various ages ? It is based on the available evidenc validated by these tools mentioned above. These tools as I have pointed out are not perfect and hence the verified information is not 100 % correct. STONE AGE. ‘The Stone Age is contemporaneous with the evolution of the genus Homo, the only exception possibly being at the very beginning, when species prior to Homo may have manufactured tools.[3] According to the age and location of the current evidence, the cradle of the genus is the East African Rift System, especially toward the north in Ethiopia, where it is bordered by grasslands. The closest relative among the other living primates, the genus Pan, represents a branch that continued on in the deep forest, where the primates evolved. The rift served as a conduit for movement into southern Africa and also north down the Nile into North Africa and through the continuation of the rift in the Levant to the vast grasslands of Asia. Starting from about 4 million years ago (mya) a single biome established itself from South Africa through the rift, North Africa, and across Asia to modern China, which has been called “transcontinental ‘savannahstan'” recently.[4] Starting in the grasslands of the rift, Homo erectus, the predecessor of modern humans, found an ecological niche as a tool-maker and developed a dependence on it, becoming a “tool equipped savanna dweller.”[5]‘ Stone age is first accepted r e corded History of Mankind and Homo Erectus is supposed to have evolved then. During 2010, fossilised animal bones bearing marks from stone tools were found in the Lower Awash Valley in Ethiopia. Discovered by an international team led by Shannon McPherron, at 3.4 million years old they are the oldest indirect evidence of stone tool use ever found anywhere in the world.[2] Archaeological discoveries in Kenya in 2015, identifying possibly the oldest known evidence of hominin use of tools to date, have indicated that Kenyanthropus platyops ( a 3.2 to 3.5-million-year-old Pliocene hominin fossil discovered in Lake Turkana, Kenya in 1999 ) may have been the earliest tool-users known.[6] The oldest known stone tools have been excavated from the site of Lomekwi 3 in West Turkana, northwestern Kenya, and date to 3.3 million years old.[7] Prior to the discovery of these “Lomekwian” tools, the oldest known stone tools had been found at several sites at Gona, Ethiopia, on the sediments of the paleo-Awash River, which serve to date them. All the tools come from the Busidama Formation, which lies above a disconformity, or missing layer, which would have been from 2.9 to 2.7 mya. The oldest sites containing tools are dated to 2.6–2.55 mya.[8] One of the most striking circumstances about these sites is that they are from the Late Pliocene, where previous to their discovery tools were thought to have evolved only in the Pleistocene. Rogers and Semaw, excavators at the locality, point out that:‘ However it was during the Copper and Bronze Ages that Implements were developed and this is accepted. B Bronze and Copper Age. The Bronze Age is a period characterized by the use of bronze, proto-writing, and other early features of urban civilization. The Bronze Age is the second principal period of the three-age Stone-Bronze-Iron system, as proposed in modern times by Christian Jürgensen Thomsen, for classifying and studying ancient societies. An ancient civilization is defined to be in the Bronze Age either by smelting its own copper and alloying with tin, arsenic, or other metals, or by trading for bronze from production areas elsewhere. Copper-tin ores are rare, as reflected in the fact that there were no tin bronzes in Western Asia before trading in bronze began in the third millennium BC. Worldwide, the Bronze Age generally followed the Neolithic period, with the Chalcolithic serving as a transition. Although the Iron Age generally followed the Bronze Age, in some areas (such as Sub-Saharan Africa), the Iron Age intruded directly on the Neolithic from outside the region.[1] Bronze Age cultures differed in their development of the first writing. According to archaeological evidence, cultures in Mesopotamia (cuneiform) and Egypt (hieroglyphs) developed the earliest viable writing systems.’ It maybe noted that Vecic period,Mesopotamia,,Anatolia,Caucasus,Egyptian civilizations Have been taken into account. The assigned date on these studies for the Vedas is around 1800 BC! This despite the fact that Lord Rama’s date has been proved at 5114 BC. And consider these facts. Thiruvannamalai,TamilNadu,India has been dated at around 3.94 billion years. Tirupati is dated around 2100 million years. JWALAPURAM,Cuaddapah ,India is dated 74,000years ago. Kalpa Vigraha of Vishnu. ‘ Radiocarbon (C14) dating conducted by the University of California Radiation Laboratory on the heavy 9-inch thick timber sides and lid of the chest in which it was discovered arrived at readings that indicated a period around 26,450 BCE.  That would make it over 28,450 years old today, and about 23,300 years older than the legendary Hindu Kurukshetra war.  The idol was also tested by experts who concluded that it was the oldest Hindu idol in existence.’ The Human foot Print in Tirupati is Man_made and is dated around 2100 million years. Apart from this records of Mu Civilization,Mayan and Aztec Civilizations have SAnatana Dharma/ Tamil connection and these were the ancestors of these civilizations. Then we have geologiacl proof based on tectonic plates movements that confirm the super continents of Rodina,Pangeaand others. Interesting fact is that these land masses were described in the Hindu texts in detail. Not only this.. The flora and fauna described in Hindu texts confirm the details found in the study of these super continents. Then we have refernces to Lord Rama engaged in war with the Atlantic people. There were four Empires during the period of Rama. They were, Atlantis, Uighur, Rama and  Lemuria. Details of Lemuria abound in Tamil Classics and the Lemurian Continent dates back to thousands of years and these texts auote the Ramayana. This means that Ramayana and Mahabharata took place much earlier. Mahabharata took place  in Dwapara Yuga. The Time Scale of Hindus. The Viṣṇu Purāṇa Time measurement section of the Viṣṇu Purāṇa Book I Chapter III explains the above as follows: 2 Ayanas (6-month periods, see above) = 1 human year or 1 day of the devas 4,000 + 400 + 400 = 4,800 divine years (= 1,728,000 human years) = 1 Satya Yuga 3,000 + 300 + 300 = 3,600 divine years (= 1,296,000 human years) = 1 Tretā Yuga 2,000 + 200 + 200 = 2,400 divine years (= 864,000 human years) = 1 Dvāpara Yuga 1,000 + 100 + 100 = 1,200 divine years (= 432,000 human years) = 1 Kali Yuga 12,000 divine year = 4 Yugas (= 4,320,000 human years) = 1 Mahā-Yuga (also is equaled to 12000 Daiva (divine) Yuga) [2*12,000 = 24,000 divine year = 12000 revolutions of sun around its dual] For BrahmaEdit 1000 Mahā-Yugas = 1 Kalpa = 1 day (day only) of Brahma (2 Kalpas constitute a day and night of Brahma, 8.64 billion human years) 30 days of Brahma = 1 month of Brahma (259.2 billion human years) 12 months of Brahma = 1 year of Brahma (3.1104 trillion human years) 50 years of Brahma = 1 Parārdha 2 parardhas = 100 years of Brahma = 1 Para = 1 Mahā-Kalpa (the lifespan of Brahma) (311.04 trillion human years) One day of Brahma is divided into 1000 parts called charaṇas.’ More and more archelogical evidence is piling up to prove Humans existed much earlier than the Stone Age. We have Pere Reis Map which turns our known history because it is dated 120 million years. Please read my article on Daksha’s 3 D Map of the world. Considering all these facts mentioned in Hindu Texts being validated by Science,it is surprising that Hindu texts are called Myths and theacademicians refuse to consider to revise the date of Indian History. References and citations. httpshttps://ramanan50.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/kalpa-vigraha-vishnu-charged-water-for-longevity-cia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronze_Age https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindu_units_of_timeFiled under: Hinduism Tagged: Hinduism History, history of mankind, Homo sapiens, Mahabharata, mankind, Ramayana, World History 18 Dec
Why No Tantra Sastra In Sri Vaishnavam - We are aware of Tantras in Saivism but there seems to be no Tantras associated with Sri Vaishnavam. We have Tantras of Ganesha, Subrahmanya, Devi,Shiva to cite a few. There seems to be a Narayana Tantra and I am researching on this. And there isVaishnava-Sahajiya is a form of tantric Vaishnavism that centred in Bengal, India. It had precursors from the 14th century, but originated in its definitive form in the 16th century. Vaishnava-Sahajiya is generally considered as a ‘left-hand path‘ (Sanskrit:vāmācāra) and apostate (Sanskrit: apasampradaya; see Sampradaya) from the “orthodox” or vedic standpoint, though followers claim that this view stems from a superficial understanding. There are both right-handed and left-handed Vaishnava-Sahajiyas Dakshinachara may be rendered into English as “right (Dakshina) (path to) attainment (chara)”, while Vamachara may be rendered into English as “left (vama) (path to) attainment (chara)”. The Dakshinacharyas (“Right Attainers”) are the ones that practice the Panchamakara (‘Five Ms’) symbolically or through substitutions, whilst the Vamacharyas (“Left Attainers”) are the ones that practice it literally'( wiki) Krishna with CalfThere is Narayana  Tantra which deals with Tantra. Even in this only basic aspect is referred. There is no elaborate description of Tantra  Sri Vaishnavam. One finds elaborate description of Tantra  aspects of Hinduism in Saivite texts, Shiva, Shakti,Ganapati,Subrahmanya. But this aspect is noticeably absent in Sri Vaishnavam. When one checks with the Vedas the Tantric aspect is found, though not in greater details. They are hidden in the Mantras which ,later have been explained by the Bhasyas,the elaborate commentaries. One also finds detailed texts in Tamil, including that that of Siddhas about Tantras. There is a school of thought which believes the Tantras might have been in vogue even before the Vedas! Such being  the case, why no Tantra system is found in Sri Vaishnavam? Vedas, unlike other Religions, is born out of Experience, Anubhuthi and Intutuion. The experiences are were recorded by the experienced/Realized Souls. As Hinduism is fundamentally a personal one and not an Institutionalized one, the experiences are vast. Individuals realized Brahman through Many ways. As Lord Krishna states that One chooses the method according to one’s Swabhava, Disposition. All different forms of worship, the attempt to realize Brahman, The Reality were categorised braodly into four. Gnana Yoga, Path of Knowledge, where one realizes through wisdom and discrimination, Karma Yoga, Path of Action, by performing dispassionate action, Raja Yoga, by discipling the Mind, through Physical and mental discipline and  Bhakti Yoga, path of surrendering oneself to Reality or God. While Gnana Yoga is an Intellectual approach, Karma Yoga is an active approach which has more to do with co ordination of intellect and mind,Raja Yoga , co ordination of Body with Mind/Intellect, The Bhakti Yoga is to tally emotional, which probabaly is by far the most removed from Reasoning or Intellectual approach. Despite our assertion and belief, it is emotion that really rules us. It takes a conscious and deliberate, though a difficult one, step to follow the three Yopgas, Gnana,Karma and Raja. But Bhakti Yoga is natural and easy to follow iof one is truly a believer. Emotions , if one were to analyse, do not stand to reason. If one were to analyse, emotions have no meaning. But practiacl life teaches us otherwise. We are ruled by emotions as they are instinctive and they are there for one’s welfare. So Bhakti Yoga is very effective and it calls for total surrender to God/Reality. The worhip of Vishnu leans more on Bhakti Yoga as the system of Visishtadwaita determines it. To put it simply, with out going into philosophical differnces beteween Advaita and Visistatdwaita, Visistadwaita never really asubcribes to the view that one becomes the Reality or one, by getting rid of Ignorance, Avidya, one returns to the orginal state of Brahman. So the emphasis on worship of the Supreme Power, Narayana, Visnhu or Krishna. But, when one takes the stand of Advaita, one being a part of the ONE Reality. one starts practices taking on this premise that He is the Reality and engages himself in different systems of pratcie, Gnana, Karma ,Raja and Bhakti Yoga, depending on one’s dispostion,Swabhava. As an extension of this thought, the Tamtra ,Yantar worship is more pronounced in Shaivism and not in Sri Vaishnavism. Later Bhakti Yoga developed by Seerrs like Chiatanya in the north of Vindhyas and by the Azhwars in Tamil Nadu dveloped the system of Bhakti yoga in elaboration to such an extent that the worhsip has been more or less restrcicfted to this emotional approach to Reality. So much the Krishna Cult, especially ISKCON, quote Caitanya and excerpts form srimand Bhagavtham to  recoomend only Bhakti to Krishna, Vishnu though the Vedas do not support this exclusively. ‘ Tantra in Vaishnavism implies that Krishna Radha is an additional form of Shiva and Shakti. According to the Vaishnavas Krishna and Radha are two manifestations of a single absolute reality. The concept of Siva-Sakti in Tantra is supposes to have inspired the moulding of Krishna-Radha. A close relation with Shakta is revealed in the Panchratra works of the Vaishnavas. In both the traditions Lakshmi is considered as the Supreme Energy who resides in Muladhara. Similarly the Panchratra works provide for Nyasas as a means of Sadhana.  The body is regarded as the abode of God in Tantra. In the different chakras supposed to be within the body Saktidhama and Sivadhama are considered. In some Vaishnava Samhitas, Mathura, Vrindavan are regarded as the abode of God. Gokula has been described as God’s abode which is in the shape of a thousand-petalled lotus in some Puranas. In Tantra this lotus is called Sahasra- Padma which is believed to be within the head. The description of Vishnu and his Sakti, Lakshmi and their abode in the Brahma samhita is Tantric in spirit.  ‘No one can introduce any new system into the Vedic way of life; if one does so out of malice, he is to be known as a pāṣaṇḍī, or atheist. In the Vaiṣṇava Tantra it is said: yas tu nārāyaṇaṁ devaṁbrahma-rudrādi-daivataiḥsamatvenaiva vīkṣetasa pāṣaṇḍī bhaved dhruvam(CC.2:18:116)Although it is forbidden, there are many pāṣaṇḍīs who coin terms like daridra-nārāyaṇa and svāmi-nārāyaṇa, although not even such demigods as Brahmā and Śiva can be equal to Nārāyaṇa.(Srimad Bhagavatam—–4:19:23—–purport). Sometimes in revealed scriptures Lord Śiva is described as being nondifferent from the Supreme Personality of Godhead. The point is that Lord Śiva and Lord Viṣṇu are so intimately connected that there is no difference in opinion. The actual fact is, ekale īśvara kṛṣṇa, āra saba bhṛtya: “The only supreme master is Kṛṣṇa, and all others are His devotees or servants.” (CC.1:5:142) This is the real fact, and there is no difference of opinion between Lord Śiva and Lord Viṣṇu in this connection. Nowhere in revealed scripture does Lord Śiva claim to be equal to Lord Viṣṇu. This is simply the creation of the so-called devotees of Lord Śiva, who claim that Lord Śiva and Lord Viṣṇu are one. This is strictly forbidden in the Vaiṣṇava-tantra: yas tu nārāyaṇaṁ devam (CC.2:18:116). Lord Viṣṇu, Lord Śiva and Lord Brahmā are intimately connected as master and servants. Śiva-viriñci-nutam (S.B.11:5:33). Viṣṇu is honored and offered obeisances by Lord Śiva and Lord Brahmā. To consider that they are all equal is a great offense. They are all equal in the sense that Lord Viṣṇu is the Supreme Personality of Godhead and all others are His eternal servants.(Srimad Bhagavatam—–4:30:38—–purport). There are many Vaiṣṇava families in Bengal whose members, although not actually born brāhmaṇas, act as ācāryas by initiating disciples and offering the sacred thread as enjoined in the Vaiṣṇava tantras. For example, in the families of Ṭhākura Raghunandana Ācārya, Ṭhākura Kṛṣṇadāsa, Navanī Hoḍa and Rasikānanda-deva (a disciple of Śyāmānanda Prabhu), the sacred thread ceremony is performed, as it is for the caste Gosvāmīs, and this system has continued for the past three to four hundred years. Accepting disciples born in brāhmaṇa families, they are bona fide spiritual masters who have the facility to worship the śālagrāma-śilā, which is worshiped with the Deity. As of this writing, śālagrāma-śilā worship has not yet been introduced in our Kṛṣṇa consciousness movement, but soon it will be introduced in all our temples as an essential function of arcana-mārga (Deity worship).(Sri Caitanya Caritamrta—–1:7:45—–purport). References and citations. http://www.indianetzone.com/52/tantra_vaishnavism.htm http://www.iskcondesiretree.com/group/krishnaconsciousness/forum/topics/teachings-from-vaishnava-tantras https://ramanan50.wordpress.com/2015/07/07/vishnu-tantra-yantra-mantra-remove-obstacles/Filed under: Hinduism Tagged: Bhakti Yoga, Shaivsim.Krishna.Vishnu worship, Sri Vaishnavam, Tantra, Tantra in Vedas, Vishnu Tantra 6 Dec
Gayatri Kavacha Nyasa Details How To Chant Lord Narayana - Lord Narayana describes the inner meaning and procedures of the Gayatri Manta to Sage  Narada. The Gayatri mantra is from the Rig Veda. The Gāyatrī Mantra, also known as the Sāvitrī mantra, is a highly revered mantra from the Rig Veda (Mandala 3.62.10) Narayana explains Gayatri from Yajur, Sama and Atharva Vedas. I am providing the Armor of the Gayatri Mantra. This forms the Nyasa. Goddess Gayatri.This is the Kavacha one has before chanting the Gayatri Mantra. ‘ Now hear the Risis, Chhandas, etc., of this Kavacha :– Brahmâ, Visnu and Mahes’vara are the Risis; the Rik, Yajus, Sâma and Atharva Vedas are the Chhandas; the Paramâ Kalâ Gâyatrî of the nature of Brahmâ is the Devatâ; “Tat” in Gâyatrî is the Vîja; “Bharga” is the S’akti; and “Dhîyah” is the Kîlaka; and its viniyoga (application) is in getting the Moksa (liberation.). With the first four syllables touch the heart; with the next three letters touch the head; with the next four letters touch the tuft on the crown of the head; with the next three letters on the Kavacha; with the next four letters on the eyes and with the last four letters make the Nyâsa, all over the body repeating “Astrâya Phat,” O Nârada! Hear now the Dhyânam of Gâyatrî, that grants all desires. The Gâyatrî Devî has five faces; one of which is of white colour; and the other four is of pearl, Vidruma, golden, and Nîlakântamani colour respectively. Each face has got three eyes; on the head there is a crown of jewels and the digit of the Moon is shining there. Her body is composed of the twenty-four tattvas. She has ten hands :– On the top right and left hands there are two lotuses; lower down, there are disc and conch shell; lower down, there are rope and skull; lower down, there are noose and goad; and on the bottom hands right and left she is making signs of “No fear” and “ready to grant boons.” Thus meditating on S’rî Gâyatrî, one is to recite the Kavacha thus :– Let the Gâyatrî Devî protect my front; Sâvitrî Devî protect my right; the Sandhyâ Devî, my back and the Devî Sarasvatî, my left. Let my Mother Pârvatî Devî protect my quarters. Let Jalas’âyinî protect the southeast; Yâtudhâna Bhayankarî protect my South-west; Pavamânavilâsinî my north-west; Rudrarûpinî Rudrânî protect my north-east. Let Brahmânî protect my top and Vaisnavî protect my nether regions . Let the word “Tat” in the Gâyatrî protect my legs; “Savituh” protect my Knees; “Varenyam,” protect my loins; “Bhargah,” my navel. Let “Devasya” protect my heart; “Dhîmahî” protect my neck; “Dhîyah,” protect my eyes; “Yah,” protect my forehead; “Nah” protect my head; and “Prachodayât” protect the tuft on the crown of my head. Again let the “Tat” of the twenty-four syllabled Gâyatrî protect my head; “Sa,” protect my forehead; “Vi” protect my eyes; “Tu” my cheeks; “Va,” protect my nostrils; “Re,” my mouth; “ni” protect my upper lip; “Yah” protect my lower lip; “Bha” within my face; “rgo,” protect my cheeks; “De,” my throat; “Va” my shoulders; “Sya” my right hand; “Dhi” my navel; “ma,” my heart, “Hi,” my belly; “Dhî,” my navel; “Yo” my loins; “Yo”, my anus; “nah,” my thighs, “Pra,” my Knees; “Cho” my shanks , “Da” my heels; “Yâ” my legs; and let “at” protect all my sides. O Nârada! This divine Kavacha of the Devî Gâyatrî can baffle hundreds and thousands of obstructions and evils; can grant sixty-four Kalâs and liberation. By the glory of this Kavacha, man can become free from all evils and can attain the state of Brahmâ. Moreover whoever reads or hears this acquires the fruits of making a gift of a thousand cows. ( Devi Bhaavatham,Book 12,Chapter 3, Slokas  to 25) Source. Devi BhagavathamFiled under: Hinduism Tagged: Avani avittam, Gayatri, Gayatri kavacha, Gayatri Mantra, Gayatri Nyasa, Hinduism, Mantra, Religion, Sandhyavandhan, Upakarma 1 Dec
Gayatri Mantra 24 Powers Colors One For Each Syllable - The Gayatri Mantra has, 24 Syllables, 24 Rishis, 24 Meters, Chandas,though  Gayatri itself is a Chandas, and 24 Devatas, Presiding Deities, That is One for Each Syllable. Gayatri is vibration, sound. As science confirms energy is convertible. Each Syllable of Gayatri is a Vibration and as a whole the Gayatri produces a Vibration in addition to vibration corresponding to Each Syllable. The Vibration of Gayatri produces Hues(colors) for each Syllable. Here is the List of the the name of the powers released by each syllable of Gayatri and the corresponding colors. I shall be writing in detail on each of these. The Sakti,Powers released by Gayatri. These are personified as female deities. ‘ (1) Vâma Devî, (2) Priyâ, (3) Satyâ, (4) Vis’vâ, (5) Bhadravilâsinî, (6) Prabhâ Vatî, (7) Jayâ, (8) S’ântâ, (9) Kântâ, (10) Durgâ, (11) Sarasvatî, (12) Vidrumâ, (13) Vis’âle’sâ, (14) Vyâpinî, (15) Vimalâ, (16) Tamopahârinî, (17) Sûksmâ, (18) Vis’vayoni, (19) Jayâ, (20) Vas’â, (21) Padmâlayâ, (22) Parâs’obhâ, (23) Bhadrâ, and (24) Tripadâ. The color of each syllable. Colors Of Gayatri Mantra(1) like Champaka and Atasî flowers, (2) like Vidruma, (3) like crystal, (4) like lotus; (5) like the Rising Sun; (6) white like conchshell; (7) white like Kunda flower; (8) like Prabâla and lotus leaves; (9) like Padmarâga, (10) like Indranîlamani; (11) like pearls; (12) like Saffron; (13) like the black collyrium of the eye; (14) red; (15) like the Vaidûrya mani; (16) like Ksaudra (Champaka tree, honey, water); (17) like turmeric; (18) like Kunda flower; and the milk (19) like the rays of the Sun; (20) like the tail of the bird S’uka; (21) like S’atapatra; (22) like Ketakî flower; (23) like Mallikâ flower; (24) like Karavîra flower. Source.  Devi Bhaavatham Book 12, Chapter 2, Slokas 1 to 18 Colors of Gayatri image credit.  https://bluebutterfliesandme.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/gayatri-mantra/Filed under: Hinduism Tagged: Gayatri, Gayatri Mantra, Mantras, Religion and Spirituality, Upakarma, Upanayana, Vedas 1 Dec
Fred Smith: Christmas, 2016 - Fred Smith is a testing expert who is also a humorist.   Christmas Eve 2016 This night before Christmas I have trouble rhyming. What’s been flying around has thrown off my timing. At this gay time of year, I much want to summon A few lines of good cheer. They just aren’t comin’. Tried scanning a few words ‘bout jolly old St. Nick. But someone stole his sleigh and the ride made me sick. A cheater seized the reins. He’s the Anti-Santa, Bringing coal now, not joy. Let’s call him the Ranter. And what he says and does have given me great pause. From what I can see, he’s an insanity Claus: “I’ll put MY NAME in Christmas, make it great again; I will fly across the sky, Savior of rich men; Change the colors of the day, removing the red, Keep the green aflowing, and adding gold instead; Each day will be White Christmas in my wonderland; Everyone will bow to me and will understand: How far better it is to receive and not give In my grabby, take-all world, where the elite live. The measure of a man is the reach of his wealth, Not the size of his hands, but his cunning and stealth.” With such values and views spewing forth from his mouth, He polluted the globe from the North to the South. He smiled when his jet sled alighted in Russia, But scowled when the GPS couldn’t find Prussia. Africa and Asia, too, he went shooting past, For he knew his secret was to keep moving fast. He frowned o’er Muslim lands all of whom love ISIS; Remembered he had some plan to end that crisis. Looked down on Latino friends, but then most of all, Squinted over Mexico, wherefore to build the wall. Immigrants were off his list on this Christmas Eve; Much to do in the states, many left to deceive. (But thank heavens, his travels were not being led By a mule named Rudolph with a face ever red.) Next, he tweeted his team of transitional elves, Telling them to take back gifts from everyone’s shelves. Reminding them the world exists to exploit and steal. “And never forget the fact this is my New Deal.” What he meant was contained in his strange gift sack— Rich bundles for the few who have nothing they lack. Each elf he chose had done things dubious at best. But those very things it seems made them pass his test. One or more had engaged boldly and without fear Re fossil fuels, private schools, poisoning the air; Unions, worker safety, predatory lending; Capping minimum wages but not defense spending. Anti-civil rights, voting rights and immigration; All elves pledge fealty to deregulation. Challenge this Santa’s wish list—it will come to naught. Do you think you’ll get relief taking him to court? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ But I have faith, Virginia, Santa will return. You cannot highjack goodness, the Ranter will learn. Though this imposter now appears to command the sky His comeuppance will be swift in the by and by. Scripture shows men fail building hubristic towers; Falling to confusion wrought by higher powers. Just as Midas’s golden dream turned into grief, So, he’ll see the meek prevail to his disbelief. Soon Dear Santa will be our north star in the night. You can still hear him roar, though he’s not now in sight. Yet his warmth and kindness shall always be our light. “Merry Christmas to all! And don’t give up the fight!!” 00:57
Regime change in Damascus thwarted - The so-called ‘civil war’ against Syrian president Bashar al-Assad which started in 2011, was in fact a US ‘color revolution’ for the Zionist entity. Hilary Clinton’s email released in early this year, confirmed that the Obama administration had deliberately provoked the civil war in Syria as the best way to help Israel. In an indication of her murderous and psychopathic nature, Hillay also wrote that it was the right thing to personally threaten Bashar Assad’s family with death. In the email, released by Wikileaks, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says that the best way to help Israel is to use force in Syria to overthrow the pro-Iran government. Tehran smelled the Israeli skunk in July 2011, when a conference was convened in Paris by French Jew philosopher Bernard-Henri Levy. The conference was attended by Syrian rebel leaders and Israeli officials. When the Syrian army failed to defeat the rebels supported by the US-Israel-Turkey and their Gulf allies – Iranian military advisers and Lebanese Islamic resistance Hizbullah fighter joined the war against the foreign trained and funded rebels. Russian started supporting Syrian army over a year ago. Russian involvement was hailed by Benjamin Netanyahu who feared ISIS defeat in Syria and Iraq would boost Iranian influence in those two Arab nations. Since the recapture of strategic Aleppo region by the Syrian army and its allies has shattered Washington’s agenda to bring a pro-Israel regime change in Damascus in order to destroy the anti-Israel Axis of Resistance (Iran-Syria-Hizbullah). Iran’s president Hassan Rouhani has claimed that Iran and Russia would continue supporting president Bashar al-Assad until the Syrian territory is cleansed of the foreign-trained Takfiri terrorists. Former Congressman and GOP presidential candidate in 2012, Ron Paul wrote on December 19 that after the recapture of Aleppo – new US administration needs a new Syria policy based on American interests and not the interest of Israel and other western poodle ruling the region. The pro-Israel propagandist The Washington Post has blamed Obama administration for the loss of Aleppo for not putting American boots in Syria like it did in Libya. “By refusing to intervene against the Assad regime’s atrocities, or even to enforce the ‘red line’ he declared on the use of chemical weapons, President Obama created a vacuum that was filled by Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard,” said the Jewish paper. In fact, it’s Barack Obama who parroted Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement on August 14, 2011: “For the sake of the Syrian people the time has come for President Assad to step aside.” Western leaders echoed the Obama  – Assad must go! Irony is while Assad is still in power, his pro-Israel adversaries such as UK’s David Cameron and Canada’s Stephen Harper are gone down the drain. US president Barack Obama will be out of the door in four weeks followed by French president Francois Hollande. Benjamin Netanyahu and American Jewish Lobby has a consolation prize in president-elect Donald Trump as far as the Occupied Palestine is concerned. 24 Dec
Hanukkah wish: May Obama die from ‘mad cow disease’! - On December 23, 2016, pro-Israel New York Daily News reported that New York politician Carl Pasquale Paladino, 70, wished president Barack Obama die from ‘mad cow’ disease, and US First Lady Michelle Obama return to pro-Iran Zimbabwe as a male. Paladino said his 2017 year wish is that the outgoing president have sex with a cow and die from mad cow disease. He also said that he wish Obama to be buried next to his Jewish adviser Valerie Boman Jerrett, who he likes to be convicted of treason and decapitated in prison for negotiating with Iranian leaders by ISIS cell mate who mistook her being a nice person. As far Michelle, Paladino said: “I would like her to return to being a male and let loose in the outback of Zimbabwe where she live comfortably in a cave with Maxie, the gorilla.” In case some readers don’t know who the hell is Carl Paladino? He is a White Christian Zionist, real-state millionaire, and former GOP gubernatorial candidate in 2010. He was co-chair of Donald Trump campaign fundraising. He recently met president-elect Donald Trump at Trump Tower. Paladino is an opportunist like Donald Trump. In the past, in order to seek support from conservative Christians, he touted his anti-Muslim, anti-gay and anti-abortion stances. For example, on April 6, 2010, the Daily News called Paladimo a clown. Paladino’s wish reminds me Passover prayer by several Jewish groups in New York and Israel cursing former Iranian president Dr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the past. On February 26, 2007, the Jerusalem Post reported that Jewish extremists organized a mass prayer attended by 10,000 Jewish children to pray for the death of former President of Iran, Dr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 24 Dec
UNSC passes resolution to end Jewish settlements - On Friday, 14 members of UN Security Council voted in favor of a resolution demanding end to all Jewish settlements in the West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem with the United States abstaining for the first time on an anti-Israel vote at UNSC since the establishment of the Zionist entity in 1948. The resolution demanded that Zionist entity “immediately and completely cease all settlement activities in the occupied Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem” and said the establishment of settlements by Israel has “no legal validity and constitutes a flagrant violation under international law.” The landmark Palestinian victory occurred despite Benjamin Netanyahu putting rings around necks of US president-elect Donald Trump and Egyptian military dictator Gen. Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, a Crypto-Jew on phone demanding killing of the resolution. After the vote, the White House defended the US abstention, saying that in the absence of any meaningful peace process, Obama took the decision to abstain. Criticizing Israel’s settlement policy, it said it had repeatedly warned Israel privately and publicly that settlement activity was increasing Israel’s isolation from the international community. The resolution was put forward on Friday by four non-permanent UNSC members, Venezuela, Malaysia, New Zealand and Senegal after Egypt withdrew the draft resolution under pressure from Netanyahu and Donald Trump. “This a day of victory for international law, a victory for civilized language, negotiation, and total rejection of Jewish extremists in Israel. The international community has told Israeli people that the way to security and peace is not going to be done through occupation – but rather through peace by ending the occupation and establishing a Palestinian state to live side by side with state of Israel and the 1967 borders,” said Saeb Erekat, chief negotiator appointed by Mahmoud Abbas, the un-elected president (his mandate ended in January 2009) of Palestinian Authority. Israel justice minister Tzipi Livni, former Mossad ‘honey pot’ has claimed that she had sex with Saeb Erekat and one of his colleagues to blackmail them. On Wednesday, Egypt circulated a draft at the UN Security Council demanding an end to expansion of illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem on land stolen from the native Palestinians. The draft was scheduled to be voted on Thursday. On Thursday, Netanyahu called Washington to veto the resolution to maintain its long history of vetoing anti-Israel resolution at the UNSC. A similar resolution was vetoed by United States in 2011. United States have used 41 vetoes so far to shield Israeli crimes. On Thursday, Egypt delayed the vote on the resolution for further consultations as result of pressure from Netanyahu and Donald Trump. Four UNSC non-permanent members gave Egypt ultimatum over the delay. Diplomats from Venezuela, Malaysia, Senegal and New Zealand told Egyptian envoy at UNSC on Thursday that if it didn’t clarify whether it planned to call a vote on a draft UN Security Council resolution demanding an end to expansion of illegal Jewish settlements – they would press ahead without Egypt’s involvement. “In the event that Egypt decides it cannot proceed to call for a vote on December 23, or doesn’t provide a response by the deadline, those delegations reserve the right to table the draft, and proceed to put it to vote ASAP,” the four council members said in a note to Egypt, reported by the Reuters news agency. Israel’s energy minister Yuval Steinitz has accused Barack Obama of throwing Israel under bus by abstaining. As expected, the serial liar Benjamin Netanyahu reacted to the UNSC decision by saying: “Israel rejects this shameful anti-Israel resolution at the UN and will not abide by its terms.” Netanyahu has recalled his ambassadors from New Zealand and Senegal for consultations. Both Venezuela and Malaysia have no diplomatic relations with the Zionist entity. Benjamin J. Rhode, Obama’s Jew national security adviser, dismissed Donald Trump’s whining saying Barack Obama remains president until January 20, 2017. “We could not in good conscience veto a resolution that expressed concerns about the very trends that are eroding the foundation for a two-state solution,” Rhodes told a conference call. One of many election promises made by candidate Donald Trump to please the powerful Jewish Lobby was to recognize the disputed City of Jerusalem as capital of the Zionist entity and move US embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Washington has warned the Zionist regime for decades that latter’s expansion of illegal Jewish settlement on Palestinian territory occupied in 1967 is the main obstacle to the realization of the so-called two-state solution. 23 Dec
Chutzpah: US backs Iran-Russia-Turkey ‘Syria Accord’ - On December 20, foreign ministers of Iran, Russia, and Turkey met in Moscow. They adopted a Declaration on the immediate steps to promote the settlement of the five-year-old Syrian bloodshed started by the US-Israel created ISIS/ISIL to bring-in an anti-Iran regime change in Damascus. United States, the ‘Guardian of Israel’ was mad like hell to be left out of the peace negotiations. CIA with the help of Israeli Mossad carried out assassination of Russian ambassador in Turkey Andrey Karlov in order to sabotage these talks. Humiliated and frustrated John Kirby, spokesman for US secretary of state John Kerry, a secret Jew, said on Tuesday that Washington would support the outcome of the trilateral talks between Iran, Russia and Turkey, provided that they lead to the betterment of the Syrian people and regional stability. “If the discussions that they had today (Tuesday) in Moscow can lead to real, practical effects, that’s all to the good. That’s for the betterment of the Syrian people and regional stability, and we would welcome that,” Kirby told reporters. Answering a question on why the US was not invited to the talks, he said, “Well, they can speak for who they want involved or not. I mean, we recognize that we weren’t invited, that this was between Russia, Turkey, and Iran.” Interestingly, John Kirby, like Barack Obama, is not trusted by the Organized Jewry. Last year, American Jewish traitor Rep. Lee M. Zeldin (R-NY) demanded that John Kerry should fire John Kirby for criticizing the Zionist regime. On December 22, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in a meeting with Iran’s deputy foreign minister for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Jaberi Ansari in Damascus said that “the liberation of the strategic city of Aleppo from the terrorists is a victory not just for his country, but also for Iran and Russia.” Syrian army has been supported by Iran and Lebanese Islamic resistance Hizbullah since 2012. Russia started supporting Syrian army over a year ago. Russian involvement was hailed by Benjamin Netanyahu who feared ISIS defeat in Syria and Iraq would boost Iranian influence in those two Arab nations. On March 17, 2016, Yaroslav Trofimov in an Op-Ed at the Jewish Wall Street Journal admitted that Israeli regime doesn’t fear ISIS/ISIL in Syria or Iraq but Iran’s rise as the regional power. 23 Dec
UN Report: 28% of trafficking victims are children - Children make up almost a third of all human trafficking victims worldwide, according to a report released on December 21, 2016, by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). Additionally, women and girls comprise 71 per cent of human trafficking victims, according to the Global Report on Trafficking in Persons states. “Trafficking for sexual exploitation and for forced labor remain the most prominently detected forms, but victims are also being trafficked to be used as beggars, for forced or sham marriages, benefit fraud, or production of pornography,” said UNODC Executive Director Yury Fedotov in presenting the report. The report found that while women and girls tend to be trafficked for marriages and sexual slavery, men and boys are typically exploited for forced labor in the mining sector, as porters, soldiers and slaves. While 28 per cent of detected trafficking victims worldwide are children, in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central America and the Caribbean children comprise 62 and 64 per cent of victims, respectively. “People escaping from war and persecution are particularly vulnerable to becoming victims of trafficking. The urgency of their situation might lead them to make dangerous migration decisions. The rapid increase in the number of Syrian victims of trafficking in persons following the start of the conflict there, for instance, seems to be one example of how these vulnerabilities play out,” said Fedotov. In September 2016, UNODC appointed Nobel Peace Prize nominee Nadia Murad Basee Taha as its Goodwill Ambassador for the Dignity of Survivors of Human Trafficking. Nadia Murad is a 23-year-old Yazidi student from Iraq who was captured and used as sex-slave by the US-Israel created ISIS/ISIL (listen her ordeal below). The United States, India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Brazil, Israel, Canada, Nigeria, Kuwait, Kenya, and Burma top the list in trafficking of 35 million women and children for sex slavery. Interestingly, Steve Maman, a Jewish businessman from Montreal (Canada) has claimed that he rescued 128 Christian and Yazidis women and children from the ISIS but refused to reveal the names the victims or the money he paid to the terrorists. But this proved the Jewish link to the ISIS/ISIL. 22 Dec
Israel forces Islamic ‘modest dress’ on Jewish women - This post is about modesty in women clothing and not to offend readers who love beauties in Bikinis. Israel which is famous for naked beaches, brothels, sex-slavery and gay parades is lately turning to Burkini, long skirt, and hijab. For example, in late August 2016, Israeli pop-singer Hanna Goor was booted offstage at a concert in Ashdod for wearing a mini short, and bikini top. On December 14, 2016, forty Israeli Knesset female staffers showed up to work in mini skirts and black leggings in protest of extension of Knesset modest dressing rule effective since 1990s. French Judo-Christians are the most allergic to Islamic ‘modesty clothing (Hijab and Burkini). On August 29, to show his hatred toward nine million French Muslims, French prime minister Manuel Valls (married to a Jew) became a laughing stock when he claimed that naked breasts and not the Muslim modest female beach dress Burkini represent French ‘secular values’. It had long been customary for women in religious Jewish communities to cover their hairs, faces and arms to look modest and less attractive to the opposite sex at public places. One can notice even Jewish burqa women in Manhattan (N.Y) and in Jerusalem. A growing number of young women from Muslim, Jewish and Christian communities in the West are using the internet to redefine what it means to dress modestly. Modesty has a different meaning depending on religion. Modest Muslim women cover everything but their faces, hands, and feet. Orthodox Jewish women cover their elbows, knees, collarbone, and if they’re married, their hair. Modest Christian largely focus on making sure their knees and shoulders are covered. All these women also make sure whatever they wear isn’t too form-fitting. But their objective remains the same: Respecting their religions comes with rules, and they want to make sure they follow those rules. Melanie Elturk, is founder and CEO Haute Hijab, an American online retailer, which offers stylish modest clothing for Muslim women. Elturk, a lawyer by profession, was born to a Lebanon-US Muslim father and a Filipino Catholic mother (watch below). She grew-up in Detroit, Michigan. She started wearing Hijab at age 13 and has continued that tradition with great passion through college, in profession and after her marriage. “For me, it became so personal and I could never imagine taking it off. I really felt naked without it, like going outside without a shirt on,” she said in an interview. Adi Heyman, a New Yorker, practices Orthodox Judaism. In 2010, she started a Facebook page called Fabologie to highlight modest looks on fashion runways. Heyman, as a married Jewish woman, never shows her hair, so she wears a blonde wig, complete with realistic roots. 22 Dec
Did Rudy Giuliani just deny 9/11 story? - Before nominating multimillionaire Rex Wayne Tillerson as secretary of state, Jewish president-elect Donald Trump was considering former Mayor of New York City Rudolph Guiliani for the post. The Jewish Lobby is not happy with Tillerson selection because as EXXON CEO, he has very good relation with Gulf oil producing states. Israeli propagandists fear that like Barack Obama and CIA director John Brennan (here), Tillerson could be a ‘secret Muslim’. Rudy Giuliani did a great job in hiding Israeli fingerprints from September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. After stepping down as Mayor, Rudy tried to launch himself as a national political leader based on his great service to Jews and the Zionist entity. But in the end, he failed to convince the public that he was not a culprit in 9/11 tragedy himself. In case some readers don’t know – on the day of 9/11, while the remains of the twin towers and WTC7 were still smoldering, one of Mayor Giuliani’s first concern was clearing away evidence from the crime scene. The City used 120 trucks to remove 1.5 million tons of debris from the so-called Ground Zero over night (watch video below). It seems, finally, Rudy Giuliani’s Judo-Christian conscious caught hold of him or someone tried to put truth into it. “A word about 9/11. To those who believe the “official story”, you have been duped. You have been conned. And if you want to look in the right direction, don’t look at Saudi Arabia or bin Laden. That’s a nice little distraction. And look carefully at the tower structures and ask questions about how they fell. This is one of the greatest cover ups of all of history,” Giuliani posted on his twitter account on December 20, 2016 (watch below).   21 Dec
Pro-Israel ‘X-Ray weapon’ terrorist gets 30 years in jail - Glendon Scott Crawford, a self-proclaimed member of White racist Ku Klux Klan spoke ardently of his hatred of Muslims and Blacks including Barack Obama, and was plotting to mass killing of both groups with a radiation dispersal device dubbed as ‘Death X-Ray weapon’ by tabloids. Crawford was found guilty of the plot last year, he was sentenced on Monday to 30 years in prison, federal prosecutors said in New York. In mid-April 2012, Crawford approached two Jewish organizations offering his services to defend Israel with off-the-shelf technology. “He had a plan to help Jews get rid of their enemies. I told him we don’t really have any direct contact with Israel,” testified Kathryn Laws, a long time administrative assistant at congregation Gates of Heaven in Schenectady. However, she informed Robin Margolis then chairman Jewish Federation of Northeastern New York on Washington Avenue. Margolis testified that Crawford called him by phone talking about a “black bag operation” to aid Jewish people. “He said he wanted to help Israel and he had off-the-shelf technology that would kill Israel’s enemies as they slept,” Margolis testified. “I explained to him that we’re a social services organization. We don’t really have those connections.” Margolis thought it trap and informed the FBI. Glendon Scott Crawford, 52, is an industrial mechanic who worked for US Army before. Judge Gary L. Sharpe also ordered Crawford to undergo a lifetime of supervised release after serving the sentence. Crawford and co-defendant Eric Feight worked for General Electric in Schenectady. Prosecutors say the two conspired to design and build the device, which was to be set off remotely and would have exposed targets to deadly radiation. Feight pleaded guilty to lesser charges a year ago and was sentenced to eight years in prison. The Organized Jewry doesn’t want brainwashed Americans to know that Ku Klux Klan is as much Jewish as the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC). 21 Dec
Salvation Army has a ‘Jewish Problem’! - London-based Salvation Army was founded by Gen. William Booth in 1865. It is structured on quasi-military style. Under the British colonial power, it became world’s largest Christian (Protestant) charity with branches around the world. During Christmas session one finds Salvation Army volunteers wearing red Santa hats and aprons ringing bell and asking donations for spreading Christianity through charitable work in poor countries like India, Vietnam, Cambodia, south Sudan, Afghanistan, Israel, and many other places. But thanks to the Jewish Lobby, from now on the things are about to change because it has found SA confidential statement titled “Reaching Jews With the Gospel,”in which Salvation Army declares that “Israel has largely forsaken its place within the care and special purposes of God.” Let’s not tell Donald Trump and his pro-Israel White Christian appointees that preaching Gospel is a crime in the Zionist entity. If you think that’s bad – think twice or rather three times. Salvation Army also discriminates against LGBT and its Jew employees. For example, in 2012, Andrew Craibe, media relation director for SA Australia said gay people should be put to death. Everyone should condemn such antisemitism. On February 21, 2014, Paul Seiler, Midwest commissioner in a memo to SA employees said that the organization doesn’t recognize the same-sex marriage. In 2004, Anne Lown, a Jewish woman from Boston who worked at Salvation Army for nearly 25 years, was fired for refusing to sign forms swearing loyalty to group’s Christian principles. Last year, Jewish leaders in Germany urged protestants to confront and condemn the anti-Jewish statements of Rev. Martin Luther (1483-1546), a German monk, who began Protestant Reformation of Catholic Church over 500 years ago. The Organized Jewry is well-known in finding hatred towards Jews in almost every statement since the so-called “crucifixion” of Jesus. For example, Salvation Army’s statement like Pope Francis’ claim that Christians Salvation is through Jewish people that never existed during the time of Jesus. The said statement reminds Christians “of the continued place of the Jewish people in the divine plan of redemption,” and by fighting anti-Semitism “in society in general” and “in the Church specifically.” I suggest Salvation Army should hire John Hagee or Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby as consultant to understand the crazy-glue which bonds Christianity with Judaism. British prime minister Theresa May has just declared that criticism of Jewish actions would be considered Hate Crime in United Kingdom. Mary Shaw, Philadelphia-based writer and activist has shown her contempt of Salvation Army (here, here). Please don’t ask me why? But it could make many people boycott the charity. 20 Dec
US: Russia supports Taliban! - Even though, US president-elect Donald Trump has filled his administration with pro-Israel Jews and anti-Muslim White Supremacists – the Jewish Lobby refuses to forgive him for showing his love for Russian president Vladimir Putin. Donald Trump has not received any praise for his hatred toward Iran or China. Recently, the Fake News whores have blamed Russia for supporting Taliban who have been fighting against US-NATO occupation since October 8, 2001. Alexey Dedov, Russian ambassador in Islamabad has debunked the allegation in an interview last week – calling the Western allegations as fantasies that Russia is assisting the Taliban in their fight against US-led forces in Afghanistan. “We have never ever provided any kind of assistance to Taliban,” the ambassador said. Instead, he said, Russia is assisting the Afghan government and has granted some light weapons to its forces and is running programs to train Afghan police and military personnel in Russian institutions. Dedov insisted that Moscow strongly supports the Afghan peace and reconciliation process, saying improvement in the situation in security in Afghanistan is in the interest of Russia. On December 4, 2016, while attending a ministerial conference in Amritsar (India), Afghan president Ashraf Ghani, the US-India poodle, blamed Pakistan, Iran, and Russia for the bloodshed in his country. He asserted that Taliban who controls nearly 80% of Afghan territory “wouldn’t last one month without Pakistan’s support.” Taliban victories in the recent years have alarmed Russian and Chinese governments which fear that US could broaden its Daesh terrorist operation inside northern Afghan provinces, which border former Soviet Central Asian states. Soviet Russia, was a staunch ally of India against Pakistan since 1950s. Moscow was the largest arms supplier to India during all major India-Pakistan wars including the demise of East Pakistan in 1971. However, in recent years, India under Modi regime has joined the US block which has forced Moscow to rethink its policy toward Pakistan. Contrary to Soviet long love affaire with India – China which considers India a regional threat, has always maintained friendly relations with Pakistan. Pakistan was the first Muslim-majority nation to recognize communist China in 1950 and refused to recognize US-occupied Taiwan. It was Pakistan which negotiated presiden Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972. Both Soviet Russia and China have long viewed Pakistan as a ‘corridor’ via Gawadar (Balochistan) to reach Persian Sea for its year-round trade with the outside world. This was the reason Red Army invaded and occupied Afghanistan in 1979 which turned out to Moscow’s Vietnam. Afghan Mujahideen resisted Soviet Jewish/communist occupation for nine year – forcing the Red army to withdraw from Afghanistan in February 1989. Both Afghanistan (2001), and Iraq (2003) were invaded not for oil but for Israel. 20 Dec
Britain's brilliant biologists - My Times column on Britain's strong track record in the life sciences:   Mitochondrial replacement therapy (misleadingly termed three-parent babies) is to be permitted by the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority. I’m glad. The scientists who have developed the technique, Sir Doug Turnbull, Mary Herbert and others, are friends; the work has been done partly on the premises of the International Centre for Life in Newcastle, of which I am honorary president; I took part in the parliamentary debate last year on whether it was ethical and safe; and I have met some of the families suffering from the dreadful diseases it could cure. So I have emotional skin in the game. I also feel a twinge of old-fashioned national pride. Yet again, Britain is pioneering a biomedical innovation. For a country with only 1 per cent of the world’s population, it is notable how many of the great discoveries and inventions in life science have happened here. That’s not nearly as true in physics or chemistry. Or philosophy, music, painting and literature. In vitro fertilisation itself was invented in Manchester in 1978 by Robert Edwards and Patrick Steptoe; the first test-tube baby, Louise Brown, is British. About five million couples worldwide have now had the happy experience of overcoming infertility thanks to something that started here. Other reproductive breakthroughs also happened in Britain. Cloning of frogs was invented in Cambridge by Sir John Gurdon in the late 1950s; cloning of mammals (Dolly the sheep) was invented in Edinburgh by Sir Ian Wilmut in the 1990s. The next most widely used biological gift to society is also a wholly British invention. DNA fingerprinting, which has convicted countless criminals and, more importantly, exonerated countless wrongly charged people, was invented in Leicester by Sir Alec Jeffreys. He first used it to help the local police clear the name of a man accused of rape and murder, and then in 1988 to convict a different man, Colin Pitchfork, for the same crime. The list of British bio-firsts includes: tumour suppressor genes; the cell cycle; programmed cell death; monoclonal antibodies; the Krebs cycle; penicillin; Sir Ronald Ross and the role of mosquitoes in malaria; Edward Jenner and vaccination; Robert Hooke and the cell; William Harvey and the circulation of the blood. And, of course, the twin summits of biology that tower above all such foothills: natural selection (Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace) and the structure of DNA (James Watson and Francis Crick). The vital technologies for sequencing both DNA and proteins were invented in Cambridge by Fred Sanger. When the human genome was sequenced, and we became the first species to read our own recipe in three billion years, the biggest single contribution — about 40 per cent of the work — was done at Britain’s Sanger Institute. Of course, we missed out on many other discoveries: those of Louis Pasteur, Gregor Mendel, Oswald Avery and many more. America invented genetic engineering in the 1970s. The new CRISPR gene-editing technology is a Japanese-Dutch-Russian-American-French-Chinese invention, without a Brit in sight. Notice too that some of those who made great discoveries here were not British. Some, like Sir Hans Krebs, were refugees from Nazi Germany. My point is not jingoism, but that we should strive to understand why one foggy island has contributed so much to the life sciences so we can make sure it continues. It may be to do with our tradition of empiricism. In biology you make progress by examining nature with an open mind, not by theorising abstractly. Perhaps, too, British society and the Anglican church were unusually tolerant of the paganism that biology spawns. Think of the thousands of clergymen carefully recording the natural history of their parishes for decades: Gilbert White is just the best known; Darwin’s mentor John Stevens Henslow was another. Lucy Hutchinson (1620-1681), wife of the regicide Colonel Hutchinson, wrote a complete verse translation of Lucretius’s atheistic and naturalistic poem De Rerum Natura. Richard Dawkins is very British. It is hard to imagine IVF or mitochondrial replacement being pursued so enthusiastically in Catholic countries even today. Opposition to mitochondrial therapy in parliament was largely from Catholics and we were deluged with emails from some place in Rome. Americans have been unable to reach the pragmatic compromise on reproductive technologies that Dame Mary Warnock gave us here — and 40 per cent refuse to accept evolution. These things have a tendency to be self-fulfilling, but can British bio-triumphs really continue? I think so. In recent weeks I have been briefed on two British breakthroughs that could be of enormous significance. I am sure there are others. One is a potential solution to the crisis of antimicrobial resistance, which is killing 700,000 people a year worldwide, and has been the subject of international debate. A start-up called Matoke Holdings has a product called Surgihoney, whose trick is to generate reactive oxygen (the same chemistry as in many disinfectants) but slowly, continuously and in the right place. Early results with Surgihoney and other delivery mechanisms show that this can be effective against bacteria in circumstances where antibiotics don’t work well: recurrent sinusitis, chronic respiratory conditions, cystic fibrosis, chronic wounds and burns, surgical prophylaxis and recurrent urinary infection caused by multi-resistant bugs. A doctor friend and expert on antimicrobial resistance, Matthew Dryden, who has tested it, calls it a potential game changer. The other breakthrough, called N-Fix, comes from a company called Azotic Technologies, which has commercialised an invention by Ted Cocking at Nottingham university. The company claims that it is the “most important breakthrough in agriculture since the 1890s”. A bacterium discovered in sugar cane that is capable of fixing nitrogen directly from the air has now been persuaded to live inside the cells of many crops. Early results show that it increases yields dramatically, either replacing or enhancing the effect of synthetic fertiliser. For example, in maize, N-Fix achieves the same yield with only 25 per cent of the fertiliser application. It thereby holds the promise of helping poor farmers as much as rich ones, of reducing the land needed to feed the world, and of cutting pollution from fertiliser run-off. Life science mostly generates good news. There is no field of human endeavour in which discoveries are so one-sidedly beneficial. The efforts of doomsters to find threat, risk and pain in genetics, and life sciences generally, have been for the most part a dismal failure. (Eugenics was based on outdated, pre-Mendelian misunderstandings of genetics and heredity.) And a surprising amount of it happens right here.20 Dec
The cost of climate change policies: over £300 billion - My Times column on the high cost of Britain's climate change policies: We now know from three different sources that Britain’s climate and energy policy is not just too expensive but has also been dishonestly presented. Peter Lilley MP, an unusually numerate former cabinet minister, has written a devastating new report for the Global Warming Policy Foundation, published today, on the costs of Britain’s Climate Change Act 2008. It reveals “at best economic illiteracy and at worst deliberate deception” by government. It comes as the National Audit Office has rapped the government’s knuckles for “a lack of transparency [that] has undermined accountability to parliament and consumers” in its energy policy. And a non-executive director of the former Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC), Tom Kelly, found a systemic underestimation of the costs of the policy as well as “weaknesses in the original governance arrangements that were not rectified over time, a lack of transparency and a tendency to groupthink.” No wonder DECC sat on the Kelly report for a year before releasing it. Mr Lilley calculates, and this is a conservative estimate, that the Climate Change Act will have cost over £300 billion by 2030. That is a gigantic sum subtracted from the earnings of Britons. Worse, this spending has to be forced by law, which implies that there are other productive investments to which it could be put. Indeed, this spending will be largely wasted even in its own terms: Mr Lilley points out that the dash for gas, as well as the recession, cut emissions, while the rush to renewables has merely driven some abroad.   Worse, Mr Lilley finds that government sources have concealed and downplayed the cost of climate policies. For example, official figures understate the “system” costs of intermittent renewables, such as the need to subsidise fossil fuels in a grid where they are only needed as backup. The government also assumed — wrongly — that fossil fuel prices could only rise, making green subsidies look less costly. Instead they have fallen sharply. And even the £300 billion estimate omits the cost of biofuels in transport; ignores Britain’s share of the European Union budget, at least 20 per cent of which is spent on “climate-related projects and policies”; includes nothing for international development (though Dfid will spend at least £25 billion by 2030); and excludes the cost of having made British industry less competitive. When Ed Davey, then energy secretary, wrote about “the impact of all the government’s energy and climate change policies [on] household bills” it turns out he was referring only to the direct costs on individuals’ energy bills and had omitted the two thirds of the cost that falls on businesses’ bills, which pass them on to consumers in higher costs for goods and services. If a supermarket pays more for the electricity to run its refrigerators, it charges more for milk. Challenged on this by Mr Lilley, Mr Davey argued, bizarrely, that many businesses are owned by foreigners, as if that made a difference. More breathtaking still, Mr Lilley shows that the government has been trying to pass off a cost as a benefit. Both Mr Davey and Chris Huhne, his predecessor, argued that the cost of climate policy could be set against notional energy savings from more efficient appliances and better insulation, which people would buy because of higher energy bills, thus supposedly generating a net saving. However, improvement in energy efficiency would be desirable even if there were no concern about emissions, or indeed no emissions; and besides, a gain in energy efficiency usually increases the use of energy — a phenomenon known as the Jevons paradox. If they have more fuel-efficient engines, people make more journeys. So, we have an energy policy that has imposed huge costs on the economy, failed to reduce emissions significantly and was either dishonestly or incompetently presented. That Liberal Democrats were in charge of energy policy for five years and that it was all in a noble cause — ostensibly saving the planet — may partly explain but not excuse this. Yet this does not explain the reluctance of Conservative ministers to revise these policies radically after the end of the coalition. And where were the watchdogs that are supposed to keep an eye on this policy and check it for effectiveness? The committee on climate change (CCC) was set up by the 2008 act to ensure “a balanced response to the risks of dangerous climate change” (says its website). Yet it has wholly failed to insist on a climate policy whose costs are significantly below the best estimates of the harms of climate change, known technically as the social cost of carbon. In a lecture in 2013 soon after he became chairman of the CCC, Lord Deben, the former Conservative minister John Gummer, said of climate change that, “the likelihood is almost certain, the scale would certainly be enormous, the effect would be devastating, and the insurance is remarkably cheap.” But we know this is nonsense: the costs, as Mr Lilley’s study shows, are enormous in themselves, and are actually greater than even the higher-end estimates of damage from climate change. Nobody pays insurance premiums greater than the largest likely loss. Mr Lilley was pilloried for being one of three Conservative MPs who voted against the Climate Change Act in 2008, so perhaps he has an axe to grind. So do I, as somebody with a commercial interest in coal mining and who thinks that the risks of climate change, though real, have been exaggerated. I have never objected to a cost-effective climate protection policy and would be delighted to see all the subsidies and imposts replaced by a simple carbon tax well below the social cost of carbon so as to encourage low-carbon innovation, not punish people for doing what at present they can’t avoid, namely using carbon-based energy sources. But even on true believers’ own terms — indeed, especially on those terms — the Climate Change Act has been disastrous. In devising its climate-dominated energy policy, government has proceeded as if cost was no object. That is economically irrational, morally wrong and politically foolish. It has needlessly put climate policy on a collision course with public opinion. It is no accident that Donald Trump went from advocating strong climate action to embracing scepticism when he decided to run for president. For rust-belt Americans, just-about-managing Britons, not to mention similar constituencies in Germany, Japan and elsewhere, this is an obvious example of an elite policy that is unfair, costly and futile.  18 Dec
Free movement of genius was crucial to Europe’s prosperity - My column on European fragmentation in the Times (5 December):   The Italian referendum and close-shave Austrian election are symptoms of a continent that may be teetering on the brink of political disintegration. It’s just possible that an empire may be collapsing before our eyes, as the Habsburg and Ottoman empires did before it, in or around the same neighbourhood. With the rise of nationalist parties in Italy, Austria, Hungary, Poland, the Netherlands, France, Germany and Britain, the possibility that the Brussels union has fomented, rather than suppressed, nationalism can no longer be dismissed. The Habsburg empire, which also tried to make a whole out of linguistically and culturally diverse parts, and ended in a war sparked by Serbian nationalism, is an unhappy precedent. The European Union may be encouraging precisely what it was founded to avert. True, it is an empire without a hereditary emperor, founded on high ideals of peace and prosperity. But at least initially, Napoleon’s empire was also founded on the principle of replacing old regimes with a more meritocratic and modern system. Against this background, it is worth recalling that the leading theory among economic historians for why Europe after 1400 became the wealthiest and most innovative continent is political fragmentation. Precisely because it was not unified, Europe became a laboratory for different ways of governing, enabling the discovery of regimes that allowed free markets and invention to flourish, first in northern Italy and some parts of Germany, then the low countries, then Britain. By contrast, China’s unity under one ruler prevented such experimentation. It is generally assumed that it was Charles, Baron Montesquieu who first articulated this theory, in De L’Esprit Des Lois (1748). In contrast to the great empires of Asia, he remarked, Europe’s “many medium-sized states” had incubated “a genius for liberty, which makes it very difficult to subjugate each part and to put it under a foreign force other than by laws and by what is useful to its commerce”. I think David Hume got there first, however. In his 1742 essay Of the Rise and Progress of the Arts and Sciences, he mused on why China’s “considerable stock of politeness and science” had not ripened, and blamed the fact that it was one vast empire, so “the authority of any teacher, such as Confucius, was propagated easily from one corner of the empire to the other. None had courage to resist the torrent of popular opinion.” By contrast, Europe is the continent “most broken by seas, rivers, and mountains” and so “the divisions into small states are favourable to learning, by stopping the progress of authority as well as that of power”.   Whoever first thought of it, the idea has gained almost universal agreement among historians that a disunited Europe, while frequently wracked by war, was also prone to innovation and liberty — thanks to the ability of innovators and skilled craftsmen to cross borders in search of more congenial regimes. In The European Miracle (1981), Eric Jones claimed that “Against the economies of scale that large empires could offer, the decentralisation of Europe’s states-system offered flexibility and a family of experiments in government decision-making”. Since then, the historians Nathan Rosenberg, Paul Kennedy, Jared Diamond and Joel Mokyr have all echoed the same point in books. Mokyr, in a 2007 essay, pointed out that Paracelsus, Comenius, Descartes, Hobbes and Bayle “survived through strategic moves across national boundaries”. He could have added Gutenberg, Columbus, Papin, Voltaire and more to his list. In the early 18th century an ambitious chemist and would-be alchemist named Johann Friedrich Böttger showed up at the court of Augustus the Strong, elector of Saxony, claiming to have discovered how to make gold. He was promptly imprisoned in a castle by the prince lest he move on and offer his technology to a rival ruler — thus illustrating Hume’s point. Böttger did not of course know how to make gold, but he did work out how to make fine porcelain to rival China’s. The castle was called Meissen. During the 18th century, Britain experimented with a light tax burden compared with the Dutch Republic. Dutch businessmen moved to Britain in large numbers, bringing with them their technologies and ideas. In China, they could not have escaped uniform taxes, at whatever level they were. The differential between the Dutch Republic and England narrowed, suggesting that the Dutch authorities were trying to hold taxation back to slow the exodus. In other words, free movement of genius was crucial to Europe’s success. Perhaps equally important was the free movement of skilled artisans. Jones noted that “the Murano glassmakers spread their arts across Europe despite severe penalties threatened by the Venetian authorities”. But there was a crucial difference from what the European Union means by free movement of people today. These people were moving not because the rules were the same everywhere, but because they were different. The European Commission’s obsession with harmonisation prevents the very pattern of experimentation that encourages innovation. Whereas the states system positively encouraged governments to be moderate in political, religious and fiscal terms or lose their talent, the commission detests jurisdictional competition, in taxes and regulations. The larger the empire, the less brake there is on governmental excess. So, an ambitious genetic engineer, who has devised a way in the laboratory to suppress agricultural pests and eradicate disease-carrying mosquitoes, by releasing genetically modified males that cause infertility among their offspring, has nowhere to go within the EU to find a regime that will license his experiment in the wild. Like Columbus leaving Genoa for Spain, he goes to the United States instead, eventually selling his British-born business to an American company that can afford to build a GM-mosquito factory in Brazil to combat the zika and dengue viruses. This is a real example: the company is called Oxitec. In effect, the European continent is saying to innovative thinkers the opposite of what it said for centuries. Where once it signalled that they could exile themselves and take their ideas with them to sow in more fertile ground, now it is saying: it does not matter how far you move within Europe, we want to be sure you can never escape the same rules. With east-west and north-south differences within the EU building, that feels increasingly like a tension that must break in the years ahead.17 Dec
Why is the left reviving apartheid? - My Times column on identity politics: The student union at King’s College London will field a team in University Challenge that contains at least 50 per cent “self-defining women, trans or non-binary students”. The only bad thing Ken Livingstone could bring himself to say about the brutal dictator Fidel Castro was that “initially he wasn’t very good on lesbian and gay rights”. The first page of Hillary Clinton’s campaign website (still up) has links to “African Americans for Hillary, Latinos for Hillary, Asian Americans and Pacific islanders for Hillary, Women for Hillary, Millennials for Hillary”, but none to “men for Hillary”, let alone “white people for Hillary”. Since when did the left insist on judging people by — to paraphrase Martin Luther King — the colour of their skin rather than the content of their character? The left once admirably championed the right of black people, women and gays to be treated the same as white, straight men. With only slightly less justification, it then moved on to pushing affirmative action to redress past prejudice. Now it has gone further, insisting everybody is defined by his or her identity and certain victim identities must be favoured. Given the history of such stereotyping, it is baffling that politicians on the left cannot see where this leads. The prime exponents of identity politics in the past were the advocates of apartheid, of antisemitism, and of treating women as the legal chattels of men. “We are sleepwalking our way to segregation,” Trevor Phillips says. Identity politics is thus very old-fashioned. Christina Hoff Sommers, author of Who Stole Feminism, says equality feminism — fair treatment, respect and dignity — is being eclipsed in universities by a Victorian “fainting couch feminism”, which views women as “fragile flowers who require safe spaces, trigger warnings and special protection from micro-invalidations”. Sure enough, when she said this at Oberlin College, Ohio, 35 students and a “therapy dog” sought refuge in a safe room. It is just bad biology to focus on race, sex or sexual orientation as if they mattered most about people. We’ve known for decades — and Marxist biologists such as Dick Lewontin used to insist on this point — that the genetic differences between two human beings of the same race are maybe ten times as great as the average genetic difference between two races. Race really is skin deep. Sex goes deeper, for sure, because of developmental pathways, but still the individual differences between men and men, or women and women, or gays and gays, are far more salient than any similarities. The Republican sweep in the American election cannot be blamed solely on the culture wars, but they surely played a part. Take the “bathroom wars” that broke out during the early stages of the campaign. North Carolina’s legislature heavy-handedly required citizens to use toilets that corresponded to their birth gender. The Obama administration heavy-handedly reacted by insisting that every school district in the country should do no such thing or lose its federal funding. This was a gift to conservatives: “Should a grown man pretending to be a woman be allowed to use . . . the same restroom used by your daughter? Your wife?,” asked Senator Ted Cruz. There is little doubt that to some extent white men played the identity card at the ballot box in reaction to the identity politics of the left. In a much-discussed essay for The New York Times after the election, Mark Lilla of Columbia University mused that Hillary Clinton’s tendency to “slip into the rhetoric of diversity, calling out explicitly to African-American, Latino, LGBT and women voters at every stop” was a mistake: “If you are going to mention groups in America, you had better mention all of them.” He argues that “the fixation on diversity in our schools and the press has produced a generation of liberals and progressives narcissistically unaware of conditions outside their self-defined groups, and indifferent to the task of reaching out to Americans in every walk of life . . . By the time they reach college many assume that diversity discourse exhausts political discourse, and have shockingly little to say about such perennial questions as class, war, the economy and the common good.” As many students woke up to discover on November 9, identity politics is “expressive, not persuasive”. Last week, in an unbearably symbolic move, Hampshire College in Massachusetts removed the American flag — a symbol of unity if ever there was one — from campus in order to make students feel safer. The university president said the removal would “enable us to instead focus our efforts on racist, misogynistic, Islamophobic, anti-immigrant, antisemitic and anti-LGBTQ rhetoric and behaviours”. There are such attitudes in America, for sure, but I am willing to bet they are not at their worst at Hampshire College, Massachusetts. The one group that is increasingly excluded from campuses, with never a peep of complaint from activists, is conservatives. Data from the Higher Education Research Institute show the ratio of left-wing professors to right-wing professors went from 2:1 in 1995 to 6:1 today. The “1” is usually in something such as engineering and keeps his or her head down. Fashionable joke: what’s the opposite of diversity? University. This is not a smug, anti-American argument. British universities are hurtling down the same divisive path. Feminists including Germaine Greer, Julie Bindel and Kate Smurthwaite have been “no-platformed” at British universities, along with speakers for Ukip and Israel, but not Islamic State. Universities are becoming like Victorian aunts, brooking no criticism of religion, treating women as delicate flowers and turning up their noses at Jews. The government is conducting an “independent” review into Britain’s sharia courts, which effectively allow women to be treated differently if they are Muslim. The review is chaired by a Muslim and advised by two imams. And far too many government forms still insist on knowing whether the applicant is (I have taken the list from the Office for National Statistics guidance): “Gypsy or Irish Traveller, White and Black Caribbean, White and Black African, White and Asian, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Chinese, African, Caribbean, Arab, or any other ethnic group”. So bleeding what? The left has vacated the moral high ground on which it won so many fine battles to treat human beings equally. The right must occupy that ground and stand for universal human values and equal treatment for all.28 Nov
Artificial Intelligence is not going to cause mass unemployment - My Times column on the overdone threat from robots:   The tech industry, headquartered in Silicon Valley, is populated largely by enthusiastic optimists, who want to change the world and think they can. But there is one strand of pessimism that you hear a lot there: that the robots are going to take all our jobs. With artificial intelligence looming, human beings are facing redundancy and obsolescence. I think this neo-Luddite worry is as wrong now as in Ned Ludd’s day. “Any job that is on some level routine is likely to be automated and if we are to see a future of prosperity rather than catastrophe we must act now,” warns Martin Ford, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, in his book The Rise of the Robots. “With the technology advances that are presently on the horizon, not only low-skilled jobs are at risk; so are the jobs of knowledge workers. Too much is happening too fast,” says another Silicon Valley guru, Vivek Wadhwa. “Think of it as a kind of digital social Darwinism, with clear winners and losers: Those with the talent and skills to work seamlessly with technology and compete in the global marketplace are increasingly rewarded, while those whose jobs can just as easily be done by foreigners, robots or a few thousand lines of code suffer accordingly,” says the George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen in his book Average is Over. Yet we have been automating work for two centuries and so far the effect is to create more jobs, not fewer. Farming once employed more than 90% of people, and without them we would have starved. Today, it’s just a few percent. The followers of the mysterious “Captain Swing” who destroyed threshing machines in 1830 were convinced that machines stole work. Instead of which, farm labourers became factory workers; factory workers later became call-centre workers. In both transitions, pay rose and work became safer, less physically demanding and less exposed to the elements. In 1949, the cybernetics pioneer Norbert Wiener warned that computers in factories could usher in “an industrial revolution of unmitigated cruelty”. In 1964, a panel of the great and the good, including the Nobel prize winners Linus Pauling and Gunnar Myrdal, warned that automation would mean “potentially unlimited output by systems of machines which will require little cooperation from human beings”. This hoary old myth just keeps coming round again and again. This time it’s different, I hear you cry. Those were just peasants or factory hands: now it’s software developers, accountants and perhaps even lawyers who face obsolescence through automation. Or academics and journalists! People – oh horror! – like us. But if we could lose most of the jobs in farming and manufacturing to automation and still have a record proportion of the population in employment, even while bringing women into the workforce in vastly higher numbers, why should we be unduly alarmed if some white-collar folk now suffer the same fate? The argument that artificial intelligence will cause mass unemployment is as unpersuasive as the argument that threshing machines, machine tools, dishwashers or computers would cause mass unemployment. These technologies simply free people to do other things and fulfill other needs. And they make people more productive, which increases their ability to buy other forms of labour. “The bogeyman of automation consumes worrying capacity that should be saved for real problems,” scoffed the economist Herbert Simon in the 1960s.  Yes, but what if there are no more needs to fulfill? Might there come a point where all the work we can ever need is done by machines, leaving nothing for us to do? When even pet-grooming salons and yoga teachers have ben replaced by robots. If so, and if the machines belong mainly to the wealthy, then the economic problem will be one of distribution, not of scarcity, so we may need to consider such radical ideas as the “basic income” in which everybody gets a salary from the government. But it is not going to come to that. There are infinite new ways we can think of fulfilling each other’s needs and desires in exchange for reward. Look at the way modernity’s spectacular productivity has allowed the revival of crafts or the resurgence in live performance. And in the unlikely even that this end point were ever reached, so what? A world in which machines do literally everything we can ever think of needing done (“Take me to Mars, Hal, and on the way rewrite Shakespeare as rap”) is a world in which we can spend our entire time consuming the products of those machines’ work. After all, the purpose of all work is consumption, as Adam Smith nearly said. The Tim Worstall puts it this way: “There will continue to be jobs for humans as long as there are unsatisfied human wants and desires. Once all of those are satisfied then jobs don’t matter, do they?” We are sharing out less work already. In 1856 an average British man worked 149,700 hours over the course of his lifetime. By 1981 that number had almost halved to 88,000 hours – despite the fact that he lived much longer. He now spent more time in education, on holiday, in retirement or leaving work early. In 1960 a British worker spent nearly 12% percent of his or her life at work; by 2010 that number dropped to less than 9% (and I bet she spends some of the “work” time on his home life, reading emails, paying bills). The final argument of the pessimists is that automation is “hollowing out” the workforce by replacing the jobs of the middle-skill professions, so we will be left with a world of hedge-fund managers and their maids. There has been some disproportionate losses of middle-income jobs in America and Europe since 1980, but as the MIT economist David Autor argues, it’s as much to do with competition from China as automation per se. You cannot outsource maids. And he thinks it is running out of steam anyway. Journalists, he says “tend to overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities between automation and labor that increase productivity, raise earnings, and augment demand for labor.” [Besides, the stagnation of incomes is not really true: see here.]  Cheer up. Far from a mass of unemployed Morlocks living miserably poor lives while the digital Eloi monopolise the few well-paid jobs, automation is granting us ever more time, as well as more goods and services. [A reader pointed out that in H.G.Wells's book, the Morlocks were actually in charge...]   End        27 Nov
People took Trump seriously, but not literally -- the media vice-versa - My Times column on Trump's electoral triumph (originally published 14 November): Years of compensating for the media’s tendency to look on the dark side of everything has taught me that it generally pays to seek silver linings. It’s possible of course that Donald Trump will start a culture war, a trade war and a nuclear war, but it’s also just possible that, while behaving like an oaf, he will preside over a competent administration. So here, after a few days of talking to people in America’s two biggest economies, California and Texas, are ten reasons why I think a Trump presidency may not be as awful as many think, even if, like me, you heard the news of his victory with a sinking feeling. 1 Just as after Brexit, the markets went up, not down. Virtually all analysts agreed that if Mr Trump won the stock market would fall — most estimates ranged from 2 per cent to 7 per cent. Instead the S&P 500 was up 3.8 per cent by the end of last week. The markets are betting that financial deregulation will encourage growth. 2 He is already watering down his more outlandish threats. As Peter Thiel, the PayPal founder and Trump supporter, perceptively put it before the election, the media took Mr Trump literally but not seriously, whereas the public took him seriously but not literally. When he said he would build a wall and get the Mexicans to pay for it, people heard “he’ll get tough on illegal immigration”.   He has already said he will keep some parts of Obamacare. He has stopped talking about imposing a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese imports. He’s not likely to try to jail Hillary Clinton. These are screeching U-turns that show him to be a hypocrite, if you like, but are welcome ones as far as moderates are concerned. 3 The presidency is nothing like as powerful a job as it seems. Although Barack Obama has set a dangerous precedent by vastly expanding the use of the president’s executive authority since he lost control of both houses of Congress, much of what Mr Trump wants to achieve will require legislation. Congress is not about to lie down. The Republican majority in the Senate is wafer thin and includes people, such as John McCain, who cannot stand Mr Trump and owe him no favours. The House speaker, Paul Ryan, is a formidable figure who will now effectively decide how much of Mr Trump’s programme will happen. 4 The Democratic Party will soon be back and hounding Mr Trump, if only in the courts. Admittedly, Mr Obama’s tenure has eviscerated the party: he lost as many Senate, House, governor and state-legislature seats as any postwar president, giving the Republicans a dominance they last had in the 1920s. But pendulums swing; it may even sink in with Democrats that populism is popular. 5 Mr Trump is already surrounding himself with reasonably sensible people; many who shunned him during the campaign are suddenly fired with ambition to serve him. The chairman and director of his transition team are vice-president-elect Mike Pence and Rick Dearborn, the chief of staff to Senator Jeff Sessions — Washington insiders both. Mr Pence is a creationist and religious conservative, which is not my cup of tea, but he is at least an experienced congressman and governor who knows how to cut deals in Washington. Rudy Giuliani was a good mayor of New York. Newt Gingrich is an intellectual and political heavyweight. Steven Mnuchin, the likely Treasury secretary, is from Goldman Sachs, for goodness sake. These are not flaky folk: they are from the very establishment Mr Trump campaigned against. Again, ironic but reassuring. 6 Some of his policies are not so bad. If he and Mr Ryan can reform taxes by abolishing loopholes and deductions, while cutting rates, as happened in 1986, then he could make the whole system more progressive, because it is the rich who benefit most from tax breaks. As he said in a debate with Hillary Clinton, she was in the Senate passing the laws that allowed him to avoid taxes. And America’s 35 per cent corporation tax is now way out of line with other countries. 7 His adviser on climate and energy, Myron Ebell, whom I know (not to brag, but we are both among the top ten climate “deniers” according to the website of Leonardo DiCaprio’s film Before the Flood), is right that climate change policy has become a gravy train for the rich that hurts the poor. Mr Obama’s “clean power plan” and opposition to oil pipelines were not going to cut emissions much if at all, but were going to push up energy prices at the expense of manufacturing jobs. If Mr Trump unleashes more gas production, that will cut emissions and drive out coal faster than renewable energy ever could. 8 The promised “swamp draining” — in the unlikely event Mr Trump pulls it off — will be cathartic. He has promised term limits on Congress, a five-year ban on public servants becoming lobbyists and a total ban on White House officials becoming lobbyists for foreign governments. Plus a hiring freeze and a one-in-two-out rule for new regulations. This is just the sort of diet Leviathan needs to go on. 9 His reprehensible attitude to women, minorities and the disabled, though setting a terrible example, is fortunately unlikely to result in actual persecution by the government. The presidency is not where these things are decided, and the media will be vigilant. Compared with many Republicans, Mr Trump is positively liberal on matters such as abortion and religion. 10 The idea that this is the end of democracy or the start of fascism, as some hyperventilating luvvies are saying, is nonsense. A disorganised campaign outspent by its opponents, derided by most of the establishment and hated by most of the media, without a ground game, just won a democratic election. If Mr Trump makes a mess of things he will be gone in four years — or sooner. Admittedly there are some horrendous policy promises, of which trade protectionism is the most worrying. If he really does kill the North American Free Trade Agreement as well as the transpacific and transatlantic trade treaties, and imposes tariffs, he will assuredly cause a recession that hurts blue-collar workers in the rust belt more than free trade ever did. And he might crash the world economy. I can see few silver linings there.  23 Nov
The wisdom of crowds - My Times column on the wisdom of crowds, published the day before election day in the US: ‘In these democratic days, any investigation into the trustworthiness and peculiarities of popular judgments is of interest.” So begins an article entitled Vox Populi, which is not about Donald Trump but was published in 1907 by Francis Galton, a pioneer of statistics, by then 85 years old. He had analysed the results of a sweepstake competition held at the West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition in Plymouth. An ox was on display. Visitors could buy a postcard for sixpence and write their guess as to the weight of the ox, once slaughtered and dressed. Of 800 cards filled out, Galton rejected 13 as illegible and averaged the rest. The arithmetic mean of the 787 guesses came to 1,197lb. The true dressed weight of the ox was — yes — 1,197lb (Galton reported slightly different results, but recent reanalysis by Kenneth Wallis of Warwick University finds the match was exact). The message is that a crowd is at least as wise as any expert (only one guess was spot on). In a large group of people, ignorance in one direction cancels out ignorance in another. Thus, to take another example, roughly ten million people will eat lunch in London today. Working out exactly what they will decide to eat, where, and in what quantities, is a vastly complicated exercise. Fortunately, we do not entrust the problem to a very well-paid and highly qualified London Lunch Commissioner, but to something called the market, which uses millions of signals of supply and demand to “crowd-source” the answer. And it works remarkably well every single day. With Donald Trump possibly on the brink of election to the most powerful job in the world, many people are tempted to lose faith in the wisdom of crowds. It is common now to hear the argument that democracy is giving voice mainly to the ignorant and must therefore be somehow curtailed, with power handed back to the knowledgeable. “It’s time for the elites to rise up against the ignorant masses,” read the headline of an article by James Traub in Foreign Policy in June this year, referring to both Trump’s nomination and the Brexit referendum result. I think he is wrong. The crowd still has a wisdom that no individual can match, and the results of modern elections do not contradict this. We need more, not less, crowd wisdom. A new book called Against Democracy by an American political philosopher, Jason Brennan, argues that democracy is “the rule of the ignorant and the irrational” and that “political participation and democratic deliberation actually tend to make people worse — more irrational, biased, and mean”. (You can see why he published the book this year.) In its place he recommends “epistocracy”, where you should have to earn the right to vote by showing a modicum of knowledge. Professor Brennan’s Plato-like proposal is a bit vague as to detail. We might have to sit an exam to get a vote. Those with degrees might get extra votes (as Oxbridge once did). A council of epistocrats might veto certain applicants. If you think these ideas ludicrous and dangerous, it might be worth reminding you that this is how a great many decisions are indeed taken: a committee of experts is set up; a quango is staffed; a civil servant allocates a budget. To a large extent we do live in such an epistocracy. Fortunately, we cling to the idea that every few years, and on certain constitutional questions, the populi — all of them — can have a vox. And rightly so, because the ideal future government of a country is too complicated a question for any expert, even if, like Mr Brennan, he is the associate professor of strategy, economics, ethics and public policy at the McDonough School of Business, at Georgetown University. Besides, there is no such thing as general ignorance or general expertise. Every brilliant person I know is also astonishingly ignorant on certain matters. Paul Flynn, a Labour MP, says the result of the European referendum was illegitimate because most of the people who voted were ignorant. A slightly more sophisticated argument against plebiscites was common among the intelligentsia in the wake of the Brexit vote. Richard Dawkins, among others, argued that he should not have had to vote on a matter he did not understand. He says that is what parliament is for: to hand such decisions to experts, who understand the details.   But members of parliament are not experts, let alone omniscient ones. Whether Britain is right or wrong to leave the European Union is a question that nobody, however clever, can possibly know the right answer to. That is precisely why, like the weight of Galton’s ox, it is a question that should be decided by averaging popular opinion, and 34 million guesses are better than 650. The ignorances, biases, prejudices and hunches of everybody should be thrown into a giant blender. During the campaign some were persuaded that the ox was heavier, some that it was lighter than it was. So what about Donald Trump? If tomorrow he becomes president-elect, am I arguing that this is a good decision because the crowd wills it? No, and here is why. The American people are not being asked, en masse, “who is the best person you can think of to occupy the White House?” They are being asked: “From among a very small group of very rich, very famous people, winnowed down for you to two, and that winnowing done by the less than 10 per cent of the population extreme and unrepresentative enough to belong to and turn out to vote in the party primary elections, which is the least awful?” That is very different from crowd-sourcing . . . I think! A minority has foisted its choice on the majority. Likewise, Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the Labour Party, not because a large crowd has decided in its wisdom that he is the best leader of the opposition, but because a small and unrepresentative crowd, with the megaphone of social media at its disposal, has so decided. If presidential elections were more, not less, like ox-weight guessing competitions, they might produce better results. The paradox of today is that technology, which ought surely to make testing the wisdom of crowds by giving everybody equal weight easier, may instead be giving undue weight to a minority of extreme voices.13 Nov
Poverty, not wealth, is the greater threat to wildlife - My Times column on the surprising correlation between prosperity and improving conservation outcomes: As foxes move into cities and deer, badgers and otters grow ever-more numerous, along with birds such as ospreys, buzzards and red kites, you might be thinking much of Britain’s wildlife is doing well. Yet last week the Zoological Society of London (ZSL), together with the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), published their latest assessment of the state of the world’s mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish: the Living Planet Report 2016. They found that on average populations of such animals declined by about 58 per cent between 1970 and 2012. The report also provides evidence that while wildlife populations are doing poorly in poor countries, they are generally doing well in rich countries. I spent a happy few hours on virtual safari through the detailed database behind the findings (so I can report that granulated catfish in Paraguay are doing well, while grey-necked picathartes in Cameroon are doing badly), and this pattern emerges clearly. Take large mammals: throughout Africa the populations of elephants, rhinos, giraffes, lions and many antelopes are in headlong retreat. Throughout Europe the populations of deer, moose, boar, ibex, bear, wolf, beaver, otter and grey seals are booming. The report notes that lynx numbers in Europe have quadrupled over the past 50 years. It is the same in North America. Deer, coyotes, bears and even cougars are growing their numbers, expanding their range and edging into the suburbs, while humpback and grey whales are booming along America’s coasts. There are exceptions, of course, but some of them prove the rule. Sea otters are now doing badly off Alaska, largely because resurgent killer whales are eating them; hedgehogs are doing badly in Britain, largely because resurgent badgers are eating them. As with mammals, so with many birds. Bald eagles, once teetering on the brink of extinction, have increased so fast that they were taken off the American endangered species list in 2007. Goose numbers have grown so much in both Europe and North America that they have become pests. Cranes are back in Britain after hundreds of years. The impression that prosperity generally helps wildlife is confirmed by the fact that middle-income countries are in between: wildlife populations have often ceased falling and are beginning to show signs of recovery. China’s giant panda population is rising (although the Yangtze river dolphin is probably extinct); India’s tiger population has inched up in recent years, although its vultures have done badly. Brazil’s Amazon river dolphin is still fairly numerous, although threatened by various risks. Notice also that in the tropics, large wild animals are increasingly confined to national parks and nature reserves. In Europe and North America even big animals are starting to recolonise areas heavily populated by people. In a suburb of Boston I was warned to watch out for gangs of aggressive turkeys. Bears are turning up in cities. Foxes have moved into British towns. A wolf has been filmed crossing a busy road in the Netherlands. I sometimes see peregrine falcons flying from Westminster Abbey to the Houses of Parliament clutching pigeons in their claws. In terms of habitats, a similar contrast can be seen. Rich countries are steadily expanding their forests, while poor countries are still chopping them down. All of Europe is getting ever-more thickly wooded, from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean, as satellite images confirm. (See this excellent animation.) Britain has doubled its woodland cover in a century and is now as forested as it was in 1750. New England was once mostly farmland; it is now mostly woodland. The transition from deforestation to reforestation generally seems to happen when a country’s GDP per capita reaches about $4,600 a year in today’s money. Costa Rica went from 75 per cent forest to 25 per cent between the 1940s and 1980s, at which point it passed that threshold and today it is back at over 50 per cent forested. China and India are both now reforesting. Yet the prevailing theory among environmentalists is that it is affluence that is killing wildlife: that if we lived simpler lives closer to nature we would save more species. Although it is true that some of the demand for the resources of poor countries comes from rich countries, this is not the whole story. Rhinos and elephants are doing badly because of demand for their products from increasingly affluent Asian people, yet much of the pressure on tropical wildlife is domestically generated. Desperately poor people in the Congo rainforest, catching bushmeat for food or for sale for a pittance in a local market, are a greater threat to monkeys than are tycoons on yachts in Monte Carlo. Indeed, go back tens of thousands of years and the lesson is even clearer. Sparse populations of Stone Age hunter-gatherers, armed with little more than bows and arrows, wiped out a majority of the large mammal species — from mammoths and sabre-tooths to giant sloths and giant kangaroos — within an archaeological eyeblink of arriving on each continent, and with no help from the wealthy, because there were no wealthy. In North America, 45 of 61 large mammal groups went extinct coincident with the arrival of people; in South America 58 of 71; in Australia 17 of 18. Much later, the first people likewise devastated the giant lemurs of Madagascar, and the giant birds of New Zealand. The reason rich people are now able to live alongside wildlife in a way that poor people do not is partly because, once liberated from mere subsistence, they can afford to care. It is also because wealth partly decouples the life of human beings from dependence on wild ecosystems. By eating farmed food, moving to cities, using minerals instead of organic materials, we reduce the need to exploit, or compete with, wildlife. This phenomenon is known as sustainable intensification. So when the ZSL/WWF report blames the consumer society and the intensification of agriculture for the plight of wildlife, as it does, it has it exactly backwards. It argues that global economic growth, while reducing poverty, has resulted in “culturally entrenched aspirations for material consumption” and has gone “beyond what can be supported by the carrying capacity of a single Earth”. Yet if a billion Africans had the high farm yields of Europe, relied less on forests for fuel and materials, and had high living standards, it’s a fair bet that there would be a lot more lions and elephants.   6 Nov
Batteries won't make renewables into reliables - My Times column on batteries:   Batteries are no longer boring. Whether catching fire in Samsung Note 7s, being hailed as the answer to future electricity grids thanks to breakthrough chemical innovation, or being manufactured on a gigantic scale in Elon Musk’s gigafactory in Nevada, batteries are box office. And though battery technology is indeed advancing by leaps and bounds, there is a considerable quantity of balderdash being talked about it too. If only we could store electricity! Then we could make it in the summer sun and on windy days, for use on cold winter nights. All right, let’s do a simple calculation. Britain uses about a terawatt-hour of electricity during an average winter day. If we wanted to store just two days’ worth of power, after making almost all transport and heating run on electricity — for that’s the plan, remember — then we would need nearly ten times as many car and lorry batteries as there are on the entire planet. (I borrowed this calculation from a similar one for Germany by the physicist Clive Best.) Yes, but we would not use car batteries; we would use bigger units, and more efficient and newer lithium-ion batteries. All right, let’s buy Tesla Powerwalls instead. We would need 160 million of them to cover a day’s consumption, or 3.3 billion to cover a week when we’ve electrified heat and transport too. They retail for $3,000, so that’s about £8 trillion. For a system that would only rarely be needed in full. Maybe we could get a discount. You begin to see why nuclear and gas make sense. But even if you only stored enough juice to turn our existing fleet of wind turbines into reliables — able to provide baseload electricity on demand — the cost would still be huge. The late David MacKay, former chief scientist at the Department of Energy and Climate Change, in his invaluable book Sustainable Energy — Without the Hot Air, reckoned that about a terawatt-hour of storage would be needed to turn 33 gigawatts of wind capacity into a reliable source. That implies that we would need 400 gigawatt-hours of batteries to turn today’s 14GW of wind capacity into 4GW of electricity on demand: which would cost north of £130 billion today. Yes, but the price is coming down. That’s true. Battery costs have more than halved in about five or six years. One study says: “Industry-wide cost estimates declined by approximately 14 per cent annually between 2007 and 2014, from above $1,000 per kWh to around $410 per kWh.” However, that’s still an awful lot more expensive than the principal current method of storing energy: in oil tanks, gas tanks, piles of coal and even the fuel tanks of vehicles, plus to a much lesser extent by pumping water uphill in Wales. Such methods of storing energy both cost and waste very little. (I declare my commercial interest in coal, as usual.) Perhaps, since we are all going to drive electric cars, we can store electricity in the batteries of our electric cars: plug them in and the grid could draw down the power during times of peak use when the wind does not blow. Well, if all Britain’s cars were electric they would store less than a day’s worth of power — and they would mostly be plugged in at night when demand for electricity is at its lowest. Besides, I don’t imagine people would be too happy to wake up and find their car’s flat because it was not very windy last night during Strictly. There is a further problem. Any energy technology must generate more energy over its lifetime than was used in its manufacture and operation, by a ratio of at least seven, otherwise it is a waste of money. This is known as energy return on energy invested. The oil coming out of an oil well, or the electricity from a wind turbine must be much more than will be used in drilling the next well or making the next turbine: because it has to provide useful energy to the economy too, and to provide people with the wherewithal to build and repair machines and structures. It’s believed that medieval agrarian economies teetered close to the brink of this energy return threshold, getting not much more energy out of a windmill or food from a cornfield than had gone into it in terms of muscle power. By this measure, solar power is actually negative and makes no sense at all in cloudy Britain, and nor does growing biofuels, since the tractors and chemicals use up about as much energy as is produced from the crop. According to a German study, wind power is viable by this measure, but not if you factor in the energy needed to store electricity to make it reliable, at which point it fails the test — and that’s assuming pumped water-storage, which is much cheaper than batteries.   You could deduce from all this not that it’s unaffordable but that there’s going to be huge, if not limitless, demand for batteries, especially if they get more efficient. Mr Musk’s investors are betting big on batteries. His Nevada gigafactory, built as a joint venture with Panasonic, is expected to cut the cost of batteries by 30 per cent and will produce 50 gigawatt-hours of batteries a year by 2018, enough to power Britain for 20 minutes if we electrify heat and transport. Other giga-scale battery factories have already opened in Asia. There is no doubt that production of batteries has increased dramatically and batteries are going to be playing a big part in our lives, even without trying to store grid electricity. And no, we are not going to run out of lithium. According to the Los Angeles Times, Mr Musk has had $4.9 billion of subsidies for his three main ventures: Tesla Motors, SolarCity (now bought by Tesla) and Space Exploration Technologies. He has yet to turn a profit and the losses are growing: some analysts think Tesla is burning through $1 billion a quarter. American taxpayers had better hope they have not been investing in a pyramid scheme. Enron, too, used to boast about its green credentials. Here in Britain, you get a bribe of up to £4,500 from the government if you buy an electric car, so it’s no wonder that motor manufacturers are rushing to open factories. In terms of noise and pollution, electric vehicles clearly make a lot of sense. However, their cost is still huge, and their Achilles heel is the long time it takes to recharge. That’s a problem on the way to being solved, but not without risk: there seems to be evidence that it is rapid charging that increases the risk of internal shorting and this may be one of the problems within the Samsung batteries, leading to melting, oxygen release and explosion.   Following this article, there was an attempt to demolish my article by Chris Goodall. Unfortunately for him it was so deliberately misleading as to be an act of self demolition. He said I gave $410 as the current cost per kWh of batteries. No I did not. I said that was the figure cited for 2014 in a paper. He simply misrepresented me. I said the price has more than halved in five or six years. He said I was wrong to say that the Musk gigafactory would produce 50 gWh of batteries by 2018. No I was not. That is the correct figure. True, in a second phase, the factory hopes to expand to produce 150 gWh by 2020. Mr Goodall thinks that by citing the second figure he discredits the first. Strange. in any case that would mean enough batteries for storing an hour's worth of UK usage, up from 20 minutes. Big deal. And he insists that solar power does provide positive EROEI in the UK. He plainly has not read Ferroni and Hopkirk's paper here. Goodall assumed a 35-year life for solar farms. I will believe that when I see it. The rest of his piece is similarly misleading, employing the usual trick of the renewable-gullible folk of quoting something else as if it contradicts what I said when it does not.  28 Oct
Britain's broken land-use planning system - My recent Times column on the planning paralysis holding back Britain: At last, the government is about to decide on a third runway at Heathrow airport — by the end of this month, I hear. It’s only been ten years since Tony Blair’s government first proposed the plan. Yet it will be three years until planning permission is granted and another six before the runway is finished. That’s two decades. Heathrow’s original three runways in 1946 took less than two years to build from scratch in a war-ravaged country depleted of funds and fuel. Why do such projects now take so inordinately long? Land-use planning in Britain is not a joke; it’s a disgrace. The present system is grotesquely biased, not so much in favour of opponents or proponents of development, but in favour of delay and cost. I happen to think HS2 and Hinkley Point C are mistakes, but if I’ve lost those battles — and I probably have — then at least let’s get on and build them quickly, rather than spend the next decade paying lawyers and consultants to slow them down and inflate their costs. In the case of shale gas, nearly a decade after it first started applying to do so Cuadrilla is to be allowed to drill a single well in Fylde, Lancashire, under strict environmental conditions, using a technique — horizontal drilling and fracking — that has been tested tens of thousands of times in America with very few environmental problems. In that decade, America has used this technique to smash the oil and gas price, transform its economy and cut its carbon emissions. We’ve spent the decade in a futile attempt to placate a handful of implacable green fanatics. It’s tempting to blame nimbyism. But in Lancashire the problem is the opposite of nimbyism. The inundating of local councillors came not from locals but from outsiders. According to council officers, of 13,448 objections received, fewer than one in ten were actual letters (as opposed to forms thrust in front of people by pressure groups, mainly Friends of the Earth) and fewer than one in seven came from Fylde. So just 2.9 per cent of the adult population of Fylde objected to shale gas drilling. Remember that next time the BBC starts bleating about “fierce local opposition”. Planning paralysis is the product of a timid state. Our cowardly lion of a bureaucracy throws issue after issue into the long grass when confronted by the mice that roar. Today it faces the challenge of one-click techno-protesters in alliance with a resurgent, campaigning “charity” industry. That industry is full of businesses — for that is what they are — reliant on generating a constant stream of lividness to motivate giving and agitation. Some are huge conglomerate marketing models that pull in protest donations, private revenues and government grants. The latest accounts of the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds show that this anti-fracking, pro-wind farm protest group pulled in £137 million last year, £21 million from government grants. Yet it and other protest groups are unfettered by any meaningful accountability, while they routinely second their staff to government departments with the strategic purpose of knowing how to gain grants and orchestrate policy.   Whenever they fear that the Charity Commission might express concern, such pressure groups shift the campaign to limited companies outside the commission’s reach — Friends of the Earth’s lawyers are experts at this game. Just occasionally they collide with reality. This newspaper recently broke the news on how, after eight months of investigation into Friends of the Earth, the Advertising Standards Authority had come to the initial conclusion that the group’s claims on fracking were misleading statements that it had failed to substantiate. Even with planning permission, Cuadrilla faces an uphill task. It and its suppliers have to run a gauntlet of “direct action” — in the form of threats, abuse and intimidation — with very little help from the police and courts. The publicity-hungry pressure groups will probably team up with publicity-hungry law firms to bring judicial review suits on behalf of a handful of objectors, forcing the company to make its case all over again. (Likewise with Heathrow, threatens Zac Goldsmith MP.) Because these suits are dressed up as environmental challenges, they almost always succeed in getting a cost-protection order from the court, so that even if they fail the company cannot recover its huge cost in defending itself against the claim. Meanwhile, a citizen of Lancashire or Britain who likes the idea of affordable energy with a small environmental impact has no such weapon at his disposal. He can’t sue anybody. Officialdom has almost as big an incentive to delay as the protest industry. The ranks of planners, consultants, inspectors, lawyers and surveyors of bats and newts generally benefit from things taking longer. The taxpayer and consumer are largely unrepresented in the system. I am not arguing that people be stopped from objecting to development. I am criticising the time and cost of planning indecisions. There’s a political theory to explain what has gone wrong, called “public choice theory”. It argues that people within public bodies may be partly motivated by the public good, but they are also — inevitably and not surprisingly — motivated by budget maximisation. The same is true for charities and pressure groups. And, for that matter, companies, but then everybody already knows that private firms are profit maximisers. As C Northcote Parkinson might have put it (as an example of his eponymous law), the civil servant who delays a decision because he is inundated with protests, then pleads a backlog of work as a reason for needing a bigger budget and expanded team, is not being irrational; far from it. But nor is he taking decisions solely in the public interest. The protester whose actions lead to a goldmine of publicity and the besieged public servant who thereby gets a budget increase, and the lawyer who interrogates both in court — are all benefiting from delay. If this government wants to govern it must grasp how this process works. The risk is not just that the state is ineffective but that it gets consumed. Like a caterpillar full of parasitic wasp larvae that will eat its vital organs last, Britain can still inch forward in the world economy despite its ridiculous planning system and its powerful protest industry. But not for ever. Somehow we have to rebalance the incentives in favour of faster and cheaper decision-making.26 Oct
Conventional Arms Transfers, & More from CRS - The United States continued to lead global trade in conventional armaments last year, according to a newly updated report from the Congressional Research Service, but overall trade declined from the year before. “Worldwide weapons orders decreased in 2015. The total of $79.8 billion was a decrease from $89 billion in 2014. The United States’ worldwide weapons agreements values increased in value from $36.1 billion in 2014 to $40.2 billion in 2015. The U.S. market share increased greatly as well, from roughly 40.5% in 2014 to 50.3% in 2015. Although the United States retained its position as the leading arms supplying nation in the world, nearly all other major suppliers saw increases too.” The CRS report is based on access to unclassified but unpublished government databases. As such, the 72-page document provides a uniquely informative view of the global arms trade. See Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 2008-2015, December 19, 2016. Other new and updated reports from the Congressional Research Service include the following. Defense Acquisitions: How and Where DOD Spends Its Contracting Dollars, updated December 20, 2016 U.S. Foreign Aid to the Palestinians, updated December 16, 2016 Tribal Broadband: Status of Deployment and Federal Funding Programs, updated December 20, 2016 The Federal Food Safety System: A Primer, updated December 16, 2016 State Management of Federal Lands: Frequently Asked Questions, updated December 16, 2016 The FCC’s Rules and Policies Regarding Media Ownership, Attribution, and Ownership Diversity, updated December 16, 2016 Special Minimum Wages for Workers with Disabilities: Frequently Asked Questions, updated December 16, 2016 Discretionary Budget Authority by Subfunction: An Overview, updated December 16, 2016 Restrictions on Lobbying the Government: Current Policy and Proposed Changes, CRS Insight, December 15, 2016 U.S. Policy on Cuban Migrants: In Brief, December 16, 2016 The African Union (AU): Key Issues and U.S.-AU Relations, December 16, 201621 Dec
Revisiting Intelligence History - Earlier this month the Director of National Intelligence asked intelligence community historians to recommend topics in the history of intelligence which, if declassified and disclosed, “would help the public better understand the work of the IC and contribute to a public dialogue surrounding significant historical events.” DNI James R. Clapper directed that historical topics shall be provided to the DNI for proposed declassification review “on a semi-annual basis.” IC historians are to “collaborate with other public historians or private subject-matter experts to solicit input for such topics,” he wrote in a December 9 memorandum. In itself, this DNI directive is not a very significant step. It does not make any specific commitments, it is not enforceable, and it does not allocate any new resources. Above all, it does not set forth new criteria for declassification of historical materials. This is a serious omission, since records which qualify for declassification under existing criteria are supposed to be declassified anyway, without the need for a new procedure. Nevertheless, the latest memorandum adds at least a dash of momentum to a series of steps that have been taken by DNI Clapper to advance intelligence-related transparency, and that cumulatively may help to keep it alive as a topic of policy deliberation. Those other steps include the creation of IC on the Record (where the new memorandum first appeared), the issuance of IC “Transparency Principles,” the creation of an IC Transparency Council, and especially the DNI’s active embrace of the Fundamental Classification Guidance Review process, which should pay dividends in the months and years to come. Meanwhile, “over-classification” has recently been flagged by the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board as an issue requiring the attention of the next Administration. * These days, intelligence history is not just for historians. One historical topic that is timely and that might be fitting for comprehensive treatment by declassifiers concerns the role of intelligence agencies in tampering with foreign elections. “The United States cannot in good faith decry what has been done to its decent citizens until it is ready to face what it did so often to the equally decent citizens of other nations,” wrote Ariel Dorfman, referring to the CIA intervention in Chile’s elections in the 1970s (“Now, America, You Know How Chileans Felt,” New York Times, December 16). “The C.I.A. got its start trying to influence the outcome of Italy’s elections in 1948, as the author Tim Weiner documented in his book ‘Legacy of Ashes,’ in an effort to keep Communists from taking power,” wrote David Sanger, also in the Times. The US went on to interfere in elections in Iran, Guatemala, and Japan, he noted. In Indonesia, the CIA reportedly made a pornographic film in 1957 featuring an actor disguised as the disfavored leader Sukarno that was intended to embarrass him, according to the 1976 book Portrait of a Cold Warrior by former CIA officer Joseph Burkholder Smith. * The current classification system “is broken,” wrote Sen. Dianne Feinstein in the Washington Post. It is too complicated, too expensive, and rewards overclassification. “We… must do what we can to change incentives to further encourage government personnel to classify at the lowest appropriate levels and for the shortest durations,” she wrote. See “How to rethink what’s ‘top secret’ for the Internet age,” December 16. While official attention to classification policy is most welcome, the fact that a senior legislator like Sen. Feinstein would resort to writing an op-ed on the subject might be understood as a tacit signal that a legislative solution is currently out of reach. But that is not necessarily true. I suggested some (comparatively) easy incremental steps that Congress could take to begin to combat overclassification in a statement presented at a hearing of the House Oversight and Governmental Reform Committee on December 7.19 Dec
Structure of the DoD Research Budget, & More from CRS - Nearly half of all federal research and development dollars go to the Department of Defense, a new report from the Congressional Research Service observes. The Pentagon research budget is more than twice that of the next largest recipient, the Department of Health and Human Services. The structure of the DoD research budget, which has “its own unique taxonomy,” is described in the new CRS report. See Department of Defense Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT&E): Appropriations Structure, December 13, 2016. Other new and updated reports from the Congressional Research Service include the following. Military Construction: Process and Outcomes, December 14, 2016 Women in Combat: Issues for Congress, updated December 13, 2016 Agency Final Rules Submitted on or After June 13, 2016, May Be Subject to Disapproval by the 115th Congress, CRS Insight, updated December 15, 2016 Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Incentives: A Summary of Federal Programs, updated December 14, 2016 Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) and Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Compliance, CRS Insight, December 14, 2016 The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS): In Brief, updated December 14, 2016 NASA: FY2017 Budget and Appropriations, updated December 13, 2016 Noncitizen Eligibility for Federal Public Assistance: Policy Overview, updated December 12, 2016 The First Day of a New Congress: A Guide to Proceedings on the House Floor, updated December 13, 2016 The First Day of a New Congress: A Guide to Proceedings on the Senate Floor, updated December 13, 2016 Department of Education’s Withdrawal of Its Recognition of ACICS as an Accrediting Agency, CRS Insight, December 14, 2016 Cyprus: Reunification Proving Elusive, updated December 15, 2016 Latin America: Terrorism Issues, updated December 15, 2016 U.S. International Broadcasting: Background and Issues for Reform, updated December 15, 201619 Dec
On Declassification of “Properly Classified” Information - The 2009 executive order 13526 on classification allows for the possibility that — “in some exceptional cases” — the protection of classified information may be outweighed by the public interest in disclosure of the information so that the information should be declassified (sect. 3.1d). The order says that “when such questions arise,” they should be referred to the head of the originating agency head for resolution. But there is no formal mechanism for raising such questions. There should be. As things stand, “properly classified information” is beyond the reach of the Freedom of Information Act, the mandatory declassification review program, and the internal classification challenge procedures. Yet because the classification system is permissive, defining conditions under which information “may” be classified, there is much “properly classified” information that need not be classified. In many cases, this needless classification is of no real significance. There is a vast sea of classified information that has no direct bearing on questions of public policy. But in other cases, it matters a great deal, affecting national decisions on war and peace, the conduct of intelligence and foreign policies, and more. Under those circumstances, there should be a former procedure to trigger (or at least to consider) the declassification of such properly classified information. Crucially, the decision whether to declassify in such cases must not be left exclusively to the agency that made the original decision to classify. This was one of the proposals discussed (by me) at a meeting last week of the Public Interest Declassification Board, an official advisory body. Other proposals presented at the meeting are described here. The premise of the Public Interest Declassification Board meeting was that the incoming Administration is likely to issue its own executive order governing classification policy, as most recent recent presidents have done, and that recommendations for improving classification and declassification procedures should therefore be solicited and developed. It is not yet known, however, whether the Trump Administration will issue its own revised classification policy. It is not obliged to do so (Bush 41 did not) and may not find it necessary. And if a new executive order on classification is forthcoming, it may not be an “improvement” from all points of view. In previous transitions from Democratic to Republican Administrations (i.e. Carter to Reagan, and Clinton to Bush), the Republican presidents took a more expansive view of classification policy than their predecessors, and gave reduced emphasis to declassification.14 Dec
Presidential Authority Over Trade, & More from CRS - The Trump transition team has promised vaguely that the incoming Administration will deliver “a seismic and transformative shift in trade policy.” But executive authority over trade policy exists within a framework of law, as a new report from the Congressional Research Service explains, and there are legal limits to what the President can do. “The United States Constitution gives Congress the power to impose and collect taxes, tariffs, duties, and the like, and to regulate international commerce. While the Constitution gives the President authority to negotiate international agreements, it assigns him no specific power over international commerce and trade.” “Through legislation, however, Congress may delegate some of its power to the President, such as the power to modify tariffs under certain circumstances. Thus, because the President does not possess express constitutional authority to modify tariffs, he must find authority for tariff-related action in statute.” See Presidential Authority over Trade: Imposing Tariffs and Duties, December 9, 2016. Other new and updated reports from the Congressional Research Service include the following. The Federal Budget Deficit and the Business Cycle, CRS Insight, December 9, 2016 “Fiscal Space” and the Federal Budget, CRS Insight, December 9, 2016 Creating a Federal Advisory Committee in the Executive Branch, updated December 9, 2016 Changing the Senate Cloture Rule at the Start of a New Congress, December 12, 2016 Qatar: Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy, December 9, 2016 Commercial Space Industry Launches a New Phase, December 12, 2016 Password Sharing May Be a Federal Crime: Nosal Part I (and II), CRS Legal Sidebar, December 9, 201614 Dec
Wrongful Spending Hits Record Levels, & More From CRS - The government mistakenly disbursed more than $137 billion in Fiscal Year 2015, the highest annual level of wrongful spending ever reported, the Congressional Research Service noted last week. Over $1 trillion in improper payments have been made by government agencies since 2004. Improper payments “are payments made in an incorrect amount, payments that should not have been made at all, or payments made to an ineligible recipient or for an ineligible purpose,” CRS said. Congress has enacted legislation to improve reporting and recovery of improper payments, but implementation “has been uneven across the government.” See Improper Payments Legislation: Key Provisions, Implementation, and Selected Proposals in the 114th Congress, December 7, 2016. Other new and updated reports from the Congressional Research Service include the following. The U.S. Income Distribution: Trends and Issues, December 8, 2016 Has the U.S. Government Ever “Defaulted”?, December 8, 2016 Federal Citations to the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases, updated December 6, 2016 EPA’s Mid-Term Evaluation of Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards, CRS Insight, December 6, 2016 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA): Resources for Frequently Asked Questions, December 6, 2016 Terrorist Material Support: An Overview of 18 U.S.C. 2339A and 2339B, updated December 8, 2016 Smith v. Obama: A Servicemember’s Legal Challenge to the Campaign Against the Islamic State, CRS Legal Sidebar, December 7, 2016 Democratic Republic of Congo: Targeted Sanctions, CRS Insight, December 8, 2016 The Trump-Tsai Call and the United States’ “Unofficial” Relationship with Taiwan, CRS Insight, December 8, 2016 Nuclear Cooperation with Other Countries: A Primer, updated December 6, 2016 At the end of a House Oversight Committee hearing on “overclassification” last week (just after the 2:04:00 mark), Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) observed that the Federation of American Scientists publishes “bootleg” copies of CRS reports on the FAS website– and he thanked us for it. “On a weekend I go to your website to find out what the Congressional Research Service has prepared,” he said. “How ridiculous is that?”12 Dec
The Federal Anti-Nepotism Law, and More from CRS - The “disruptive” character of the Trump transition is already keeping the analysts and lawyers at the Congressional Research Service busy. One new CRS analysis responds to the question of whether the employment of Trump family members in the transition or the Administration would violate the federal law against nepotism, which generally prohibits the hiring of relatives to government jobs. The answer is not crystal clear, for several reasons explained in the new analysis. It may be that an otherwise prohibited appointment would be permitted, for example, if the appointee forgoes compensation. See The Federal Anti-Nepotism Statute: Limits on Appointing, Hiring, and Promoting Relatives, CRS Legal Sidebar, December 1, 2016. Could President Trump simply withdraw the United States from the international Paris Agreement on climate change? Again, the answer is murky. “Historical practice would appear to suggest that, because the Paris Agreement is an executive agreement, domestic law would allow the President to unilaterally withdraw from the Agreement without approval from the legislative branch.” On the other hand, maybe not. See Can the President Withdraw from the Paris Agreement?, CRS Legal Sidebar, December 5, 2016. Another CRS brief examines the waiver that would be needed if General (ret.) James Mattis were to serve as Secretary of Defense, a departure from the normal principle of civilian control of the military. “CRS has been able to identify [only] one instance of Congress acting to waive this provision,” namely in response to President Truman’s 1950 nomination of Gen. George C. Marshall to be Secretary of Defense. See Waiver of Statutory Qualifications Relating to Prior Military Service of the Secretary of Defense, CRS Insight, December 1, 2016. Other new and updated reports from the Congressional Research Service include the following. European Union Efforts to Counter Disinformation, CRS Insight, December 1, 2016 Fidel Castro’s Death: Implications for Cuba and U.S. Policy, CRS Insight, December 2, 2016 Iran Nuclear Agreement, updated December 5, 2016 Internet Sales and State Taxes: Policy Issues, CRS Insight, December 1, 2016 Social Security Primer, updated December 5, 2016 An Introduction to Judicial Review of Federal Agency Action, December 5, 2016 6 Dec
Migrants don’t drive down wages (once more) - By Tom O’LearyA false argument can become an established truth by a process of constant repetition. But it is still false. This is now the main method used in the ongoing debate about the effects of immigration to the UK. One of the key false assertions widely made is that immigrants have driven down wages.  Chart 1 below is based on a TUC analysis on the effect of the recession on real wages in selected countries. Contrary to Government propaganda, the UK economy is not booming. On some measures it is among the worst-performing countries coming out of the crisis. By contrast, while there are many other advanced industrialised countries that have been badly hit by the crisis, only Greek real wages have fallen as far as those of British wages over the period 2007 to 2015.Chart 1. Change in Real Wages in Selected Countries, 2007 to 2015Source: TUCThis collapse in UK wages has coincided with the continued growth in net migration to the UK. But coincidence is not even correlation, let alone causality.  In reality, no-one outside the far right ever dreamt of linking wages to immigration levels until the Tory Government introduced a net migration target in 2011. This was a blatant attempt to distract from its own unpopularity because of its austerity policy. Labour had started to pull ahead of the Tories in the opinion polls for the first time in 4 years (data here). Blaming migrants for low wages, poor public services, the housing crisis and other issues is classic scapegoating.The assertion that migrants drive down wages rests on general truisms; that migrants are willing to work for lower pay, they undercut wages and so on. If any of this were true, it would be generally true. There cannot be a unique mechanism which only applies to the UK which does not apply to other advanced industrialised countries. Yet this is one of the more obvious ways in which this argument falls down.In Chart 2 below the total level of migration to the UK and to Germany from 2000 to 2014. It should be noted that over the period 2007 to 2015 German real wages rose by 13.9% while UK real wages fell by 10.4%, as noted in Chart 1 above.Chart 2. Yet this is almost exactly the period in which migrant inflows to Germany and to the UK diverge dramatically. In effect, just as German real wages were advancing migrant inflows were soaring towards 1.4 million per annum. At the same time, while UK real wages were declining the level of migrant inflows was more or less steady at approximately 500,000 per annum. As a proportion of the total population German migration was also much higher than that of the UK.If the general proposition were true that migrants drive down wages in advanced industrialised economies, it would be true across those economies. It is patently untrue. German wages rose in real terms while its immigration rate and totals were far higher than that of the UK.In reality, the German economy is a much more highly productive economy than the UK, about 30% higher. This is based on much greater openness to the world economy and much higher levels of investment over a prolonged period. This allows both higher wages and higher wage growth than the UK. It is the exceptionally low level of UK investment combined with the economy’s long-term structural weaknesses which have caused the depth of the crisis here and the fall in real wages. Migrants have not cut British wages. British bosses have. 9 Dec
RBS shows left must think for itself - By Tom O’LearyRoyal Bank of Scotland (RBS) is a publicly-owned bank. The overwhelming majority of its shares are in state hands, 73% of the equity. Yet it was the only major bank to fail outright the recent ‘stress test’ of its balance sheet conducted by the Bank of England. The bank is a basket-case. It is costing all of us money, and yet it could be a key contributor to economic recovery.For many years the left has called for the nationalisation of the banks. This happened as a result of the financial crisis. But with very few exceptions the left had very little to say about what the public sector could do with its newly-acquired and deeply damaged assets. That was an error. Now that the left leads the Labour party and could be in position to lead the next government, it should use every lever at its disposal to produce an investment-led recovery. RBS should be seen as one of those levers.Financial snapshotThe financial position of RBS is deteriorating, highlighted by the Bank’s stress tests. The stress tests themselves have four fundamental elements, related to the earlier global financial crisis. In the Bank’s stress scenario, world GDP falls by the same amount as in the global financial crisis and UK GDP falls by a lesser amount. But UK unemployment rises more than previously and UK property prices fall by a significantly greater amount. The stress test assumptions compared to the global crisis are shown in Chart 1 below.Chart 1. Stress test scenarios compared to 2007/08Source: Bank of England The specific problem for RBS is revealed by this fundamental test. RBS is a loss-making bank, incurring a pre-tax loss of £2.7 billion in 2015. But it is also particularly unprepared to withstand a downturn in the housing market. This is despite the fact its so-called capital cushion against losses has increased. In 2010 its Tier 1 capital ratio was 10.7% while in 2015 it had risen to 15.5%.This is a startling outcome, which completely belies the idea that banks can be insulated against shocks simply by increasing their spare or cushion Tier 1 capital. These are economic shocks outlined by the Bank of England, with perhaps severe financial consequences. The answer lies in economic policy, and its financial implementation.RBS has become a more risky bank since the crisis, not a less risky one under its private sector management even while it has been in public ownership and its Tier 1 capital ratio has risen. This is because it has increased its dependence on lending to the housing market. Between 2010 and 2015 RBS increased mortgage loans on its balance sheet from £90.6 billion to £104.8 billion, and the proportion of its total balance sheet from 83.6% to 86.4% of the total.This completely lop-sided dependence on mortgages means that any projected decline in house prices has an even greater damaging effect on RBS’s balance sheet than previously. RBS has in effect been cutting its lending to the productive sectors of the economy from already abysmally low levels. Business loans now account for just 4.4% of the total RBS balance sheet.Of course, if private sector businesses are unwilling or unable to borrow for productive investment then it would be foolish for RBS or any bank to chase business by offering uncommercial business lending. But thankfully, even in the UK, there are large parts of the economy which are in public sector hands and which could easily increase their productive borrowing for investment.  These include local authorities and universities. There is too still a host of companies in public sector hands. Local authorities own, or have significant holdings in a series transport networks, bus services, rail networks and even airports. In addition, they could all usefully increase and upgrade local authority housing. Universities own research facilities and share in science parks which can be expanded. They own publishing enterprises, which could be upgraded and digitised. Large scale companies remain in public hands, from broadcasting companies, to research facilities, the NHS, the Post Office, water companies, network rail and air traffic control.  All of these could be expanded with investment and in the process would increase the level of productivity and prosperity for the economy as a whole. The publicly-owned National Grid could undertake its own large scale investment in renewable energy projects. The return on them would be on average very high, and RBS itself would be rebalanced away from the housing market.The Tory government has presided over the longest fall in living standards in the UK on record. It has produced the Brexit car crash simply in order to manage its own internal divisions. It is utterly incapable of lifting the economy out of its morass. Inevitably, it has no idea how to lead RBS out of its crisis. The only reason a fire sale has not been conducted is that outstanding legal cases, primarily in the US, mean that some parts of RBS are still burning.Labour cannot take its lead from the Tories on any of these issues. One of the most difficult tasks in politics is to arrive at an objective perspective on key issues, overcoming the weight of prejudice fostered by the enemies of workers and the poor. But RBS is a practical example of how the left must learn to think for itself, and use every lever at its disposal to deliver an investment-led recovery. 1 Dec
Autumn Statement shows Brexit makes us poorer - By Tom O’LearyThe ever-optimistic Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has come under sustained fire from the Brexiteers for its gloomy prognosis and forecasts for the Autumn Statement. This criticism is entirely misplaced. The OBR has underestimated the negative impact of Brexit.The OBR has loyally served successive Tory or Tory-led administrations having been created by them in 2010 and has routinely forecast much stronger growth than has occurred, along with rising living standards that have failed to materialise. However, what the OBR cannot do is ignore economic reality. Its forecast weaker growth over the next two years, that is before Brexit is enacted, chimes with almost all private forecasts. The Brexiteers want to shoot the messenger, who brings news of the downturn they have created.The OBR repeatedly emphasised that it cannot make any substantive forecasts about the Brexit period itself as the government would not provide any information on the post-Brexit economic regime, not even in the widest parameters. Instead, the OBR focused on the immediate negative impact of the Brexit vote and the deterioration of the economic outlook, and even assumed a resumption of slower but steady growth from 2019 onwards. Give the disruption that is currently scheduled for 2019 when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU, this seems implausible.Worse outlook because of BrexitThe most important OBR forecast changes are shown in Table 1 below (taken from Table 1.1 of the OBR’s November 2016 Economic and Fiscal Outlook). GDP growth falls by a cumulative 1.1%. Household consumption is down by 1.8%. Crucially business investment falls by 12.75%. In terms of living standards average earnings fall by a cumulative 2.8%.Table 1. Changes in OBR forecasts for key economic variables since March 2016Source: OBRNot all of this deterioration is due to Brexit. The OBR specifies that around 60% of it is. In the OBR’s ‘counterfactual’ scenario, as if there had been no referendum, shows that 61.25% of the deterioration by the end of this parliament is due to Brexit (Table 1.4 of the OBR document).  The remainder is the customary downward revision to forecasts as the OBR’s rose-tinted view gives way to reality. But this can hardly provide much comfort to the Brexiteers on the right or left. The OBR has only really taken account of the turmoil of the next two years and its previous track record suggests the forecasts will be markedly lower over time.It is clear from Table 1 above that the biggest single casualty over the next few years is business investment. This is entirely predictable and predicted. As the level of investment is in part determined by the scope of the market, the UK’s withdrawal from the world’s largest market will inevitably deter investment. Contrary to government propaganda and much easily-led commentary, there will be no attempt to replace this new slump in business investment with increased public sector investment, as shown in Chart 1 below. Contrary to Tory propaganda there is no ‘National Productivity Investment Fund of £23 billion’, it is simply the relabelling of existing government spending on road, rail, housing and so on.Chart 1. UK Pubic Sector Investment as Proportion of GDP Brexit may have been sold as an opportunity to ‘get our country back’, but no vote can overcome the forces of global capitalism, or abolish the laws of economics. Irrespective of the ideas those who supported Brexit, the effect of the vote is to prolong the longest period of falling real wages in recorded UK history, as shown in Chart 2. Real wages had been falling since the end of 2014, when they were 5.7% below where they were when Labour lost office in 2010. But Brexit postpones the wage recovery primarily through flat wages and higher prices, so that they are not now officially forecast to recover until Q3 2019. This lost decade in wages is prolonged by Brexit.Chart 2. Index of Real WagesOverall the crisis of the British economy is demonstrated by the change in Consumption and Investment since the beginning of the crisis. The OBR has forecast the outturn for the remainder of this year. The changes in Consumption and Investment are shown in Chart 3 below. The change in aggregate Consumption since the beginning of the crisis has been just over £135 billion, led by rising private Consumption. The cumulative rise in Investment is just £0.8 billion, effectively zero. It is this rise in Consumption without any rise in Investment to sustain it which has led to enormous overseas borrowings to cover the current account deficit. Consuming without Investment is also responsible for flat or falling living standards for the overwhelming majority. Chart 3. UK Consumption and Investment Q1 2008 to Q4 2016 (Forecast)  Unsurprisingly, the notion that exports will boom because of Brexit is revealed as pure fantasy. With zero investment the economy can only decline competitively if there is zero investment, once the one-off boost from Sterling’s devaluation fades. This is shown by the OBR in terms of export market share, that is exports divided by imports, in Chart 4 below. In fact, the OBR forecasts showing the relative decline of export performance accelerating post-Brexit compared to the previous trend.Chart 4. UK Export Market Share Economic objectivesAs noted above, the OBR sought but was not given any meaningful advice from the government about its aims in the Brexit negotiations, or what policy outcome it expected. Instead it was given two statements by Theresa May. Below is a key section from the statements they were given.Theresa May said, “I want it to give British companies the maximum freedom to trade and operate in the Single Market and let European businesses do the same here. But let me be clear. We are not leaving the European Union only to give up control of immigration again.”The OBR requested guidance on economic policy. What it got was bombast on immigration. This must be assumed to override economic policy, or supersede it.Yet the OBR is clear, the objective of reducing immigration will itself reduce both growth and living standards for all. There are 70 references to migration in the OBR document. It states that potential growth will be 2.4% because of lower net migration by 2021. To be absolutely clear, this is not simply an effect which reduces GDP, it also reduces living standards for the entire population, measured as per capita GDP. The OBR states, “On a per capita basis, cumulative growth would have been 0.3 percentage points higher because net migration adds proportionately more to the working-age population than to the total population, thereby boosting the employment rate too” (p.45).It should be the goal of all economic policy to maximise the greatest sustainable increase in the living standards of the population. The Brexit vote and the Brexit government have overturned that strategic aim, replacing it with immigration-reduction. Chancellor Philip Hammond told the Tory party conference that ‘no-one voted to be poorer’. Yet his own government acts as if they did. It is what they will deliver.The reason the Cabinet Brexiteers are in uproar is that their reactionary fantasies cannot survive contact with the real world. Even the perennial optimists at the OBR must be attacked. But this is in the nature of Brexit, a reactionary project propelled by distortions and outright lies. Because Brexit erects barriers between the UK economy and the world’s biggest market, living standards will be much lower than otherwise. Curbing immigration will compound this effect. Of course, it is quite possible for political movements and even nations to sustain themselves on reactionary fantasies for a whole period. But they tend not to survive contact with the outside world. The Autumn Statement is probably just a small foretaste of what is to come as the Brexit fantasy meets reality.25 Nov
After Trump's victory China is the main strategic pillar for globalisation - By John RossTrump’s election as US President means 2016 is ending with a stark public contrast between the positions of China and the US on global trade. The US has its first president proclaiming support for protectionism since World War II, while China states its support for increased international trade and economic globalisation. December 2016 also marks the first anniversary of China’s major free trade agreements (FTAs) with South Korea and Australia - so far China has signed 14 free trade pacts with 22 countries and regions in Asia, Latin America, Oceania, and Europe. In contrast Trump, far from calling for extending FTAs, has called for revision even of the existing North American Free Trade Agreement – the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investors Partnership (TTIP) are different issues as analysed below. This reality that China is now the largest economy supporting progress towards free trade, while the US moves towards protectionism, is therefore a key event in the world economy. It is consequently crucial to analyse both the fundamental issues involved, that is the most powerful forces driving the process, and the immediate practical consequences for China in pushing for FTAs and to understand the consequences of the contrasting strategic approaches of China and Trump. The importance of trade First, analysing the most powerful forces in economic development, international trade is one of the clearest issues where economic theory and the facts of economic development completely coincide. Economic theory states that international trade will aid economic development: numerous and repeated factual studies show a positive correlation between the trade openness of an economy and its speed of economic development. Nevertheless, to understand developments in the world economy given the now contrasting policies of China and Trump it is crucial to understand the reasons for the firmly established positive correlation of trade and the rate of economic development in the modern globalised economy. Trade and division/socialisation of labourTrade’s importance does not arise from some ‘magic effect’ of crossing national borders. The distance from Shanghai to Beijing and from Shanghai to Osaka is approximately the same, but the importance of trade does not mean that there is some extra benefit from Shanghai’s trade with Japan rather than another part of China. International trade’s importance follows from the proven fact of the first sentence of the first chapter of the founding work of modern economics, Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations: ‘The greatest improvement in the productive powers of labour, and the greater part of the skill, dexterity, and judgment with which it is directed, or applied, seem to have been the effect of the division of labour.’ Marx used the term ‘socialisation of labour’, rather than ‘division of labour’, but entirely agreed with Smith’s conclusion. Modern econometrics fully confirmed the Smith/Marx analysis. Modern econometrics finds, in economic ‘growth accounting’ terminology, that the most powerful factor in economic growth is the increase in ‘intermediate products’ – that is the output of one industry (e.g. a steering wheel, a hard drive) used as an input into another industry (e.g. a car, a computer). But the increase in ‘intermediate products’ is merely a measure of increase in division of labour. Modern econometrics also finds that the second most powerful factor in economic growth is fixed investment. But fixed investment is again simply another form of division/socialisation of labour – the use of the outputs of capital goods industries to produce other products. The key role of international trade follows directly from this decisive role of division/socialisation of labour. As Smith immediately noted: ‘the division of labour is limited by the extent of the market’ – increasing division/socialisation of labour required an increasing market size. It was for this fundamental economic reason that Smith advocated free trade and Marx was a fierce critic of the founder of modern ‘protectionist’ theory Friedrich List It is this increasing division/socialisation of labour, not of crossing national borders, that is decisive for economic development and which therefore allows the unfolding economic processes involved with Trump and China’s current policies to be understood. ‘Opening up’These fundamental economic forces evidently explain the success of China’s ‘reform and opening up’ process since 1978 - and why China seeks new FTAs. A key reason for China’s more rapid economic than other major economies is that it makes greater use of international division of labour than the other two of the world’s three largest economies. China’s trade in goods and services in 2015 was 41.2% of China’s GDP compared to 36.8% in Japan and 28.1% in the US. Given the success of the ‘opening up’ policy it corresponds to China’s national self-interest to press forward with proposals for freer trade and FTAs. But the fact that this advantage of division/socialisation of labour in economic development is the foundation of trade means equally means that developing this is in the interests of other countries as well as China. The statements that in economics ‘one plus one can be more than two’, and the concept ‘win-win’, are not pleasant but empty words but correspond to this decisive economic advantage of division/socialisation of labour. This is why China has been able to secure its free trade agreements with South Korea, Australia and other countries, and why it wants more. It is also the beneficial effects of such globalisation that has helped produce rapid economic growth in China, India and other developing countries, thereby helping lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. Globalisation is consequently decisively important for countries, but particularly developing countries and the world’s poorest people, to achieve economic development. US economic historyIf China since 1978 dramatically illustrates the advantages of open trade US history provides one of the most dramatic examples of the negative nature of protectionism. The passing of the Smoot–Hawley act raising US tariffs in 1930, against the advice of huge numbers of US economists, was a decisive factor in the depth of the Great Depression. Trade’s share in US GDP dropped from 11.0% in 1929 to 6.6% in 1932 and was still only 7.6% in 1938 on the eve of World War II. US GDP fell by 26% between 1929 and 1933, and was only 2.0% above 1929 levels by 1938. Following this devastating experience of the Great Depression after World War II the US turned policy through 180 degrees and actively built a globalised world trade order. The US played a decisive role in seven rounds of negotiations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) each of which further liberalised world trade. This culminated in 1995 in the creation of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Every US President from Truman to Obama declared support for freer trade and many acted on it. It is this 71 year old at least verbal commitment to freer trade that Trump’s campaign broke with. TPP and TTIPTo fully understand the present stark contrast between China and US positions on global trade it is important to realise that the US already began to break with the goal of an increasingly globalised world economy in reality if not in rhetoric under Obama. The TPP and TTIP differed decisively from previous trade agreements under GATT and in creating the WTOs. Their real content was regionalised protectionism for the US beneath mere words on support of freer trade. This real content was shown extremely clearly in the TPP. The US and China are the world’s first and second largest trading nations and overwhelmingly the largest Pacific trading nations. The foundation of a genuine US orientation to freer trade in the Pacific would have been to negotiate with China. But instead the US deliberately excluded China from the TPP negotiations – confirming that, as numerous Western analysts noted, the TPP’s real aim was not to liberalise trade but to form a bloc under US dominance against China. As US Secretary of Defence Carter stated: ‘In fact, you may not expect to hear this from a Secretary of Defense, but… passing TPP is as important to me as another aircraft carrier.’ The domestic political problem with the TPP for the US administration, however, was that to enshrine the interests of US corporations it tipped the playing field even further against American workers. As well-known US economist Jeffrey Sachs noted of the TPP’s provisions: ‘Their common denominator is that they enshrine the power of corporate capital above all other parts of society, including… even governments… The system proposed in the TPP is a dangerous… blow to the judicial systems of all the signatory countries.’ As the TPP did nothing to improve the position of the US population, indeed would have worsened it, the TPP became politically toxic. All three candidates with major support during the US presidential election and primaries – Trump, Clinton and Sanders – were therefore forced to declare opposition to the TPP. Huge opposition to the TPP existed in the US because it was an attack not only on China but on the US population. While Trump has in words turned the US from support for free trade and globalisation to protectionism, Obama had already done it in practice with the TPP and the TTIP. China as the champion of a globalised economyTrump famously declared during the presidential election campaign he would put a 45% tariff on Chinese imports in the US and would declare China a currency manipulator on ‘day one’ of his administration. As, however, Trump made several wholly impractical proposals during his campaign, such as that Mexico would pay for a wall along its entire border with the US, what Trump will actually do is not yet clear. As the US Peterson Institute noted: ‘If implemented, these proposals [of Trump] would provoke retaliation by US trading partners, unleashing a trade war that would send the US economy into recession and cost millions of Americans their jobs.’ In particular: ‘Industries that manufacture machinery used to create capital goods in the information technology, aerospace, and engineering sectors, which depend on exports, would be the most intensely affected. But the trade shock would also damage sectors not engaged in trade, such as wholesale and retail distribution, restaurants, and temporary employment agencies, particularly in regions where traded commodities are produced. Millions of American jobs that appear unconnected to international trade—disproportionately lower-skilled and lower-wage jobs—would be at risk.’ Putting a tariff on China’s exports to the US would also raise prices for US consumers and thereby reduce US living standards. By being inflationary such price increases would also increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates creating downward pressure on US economic growth. Undoubtedly the very large size of the US economy, which allows great domestic division of labour, and the fact that even Trump does not propose a return to protectionism on the scale of the 1930s, means that the negative effects of protectionism might develop more slowly in the US than in other well-known examples of the failure of protectionism in a modern globalised economy (pre-1990s India, Argentina etc). Nevertheless, turning its back on the advantages of international division of labour would necessarily lead to a slow path of growth of the US economy, and lower living standards, than if it pursued the path of an open economy. The current problems in the US economy do not stem from its globalisation, on the contrary this has helped prevent any decisive economic decline of the Great Recession type, but of underinvestment in the US economy – a process analysed in detail in my book 一盘大棋?中国新命运解析 (The Great Chess Game?). The TPPThere is no doubt that one of Trump’s most popular pledges in the election was to oppose the TPP. The problem for Trump is that the majority of US big capital precisely wants a deal like the TPP. Possibly Trump will conclude that anger over his reneging on a pledge to oppose the TPP would be so unpopular it cannot be done openly. But that merely means that Trump will try to secure the same anti-China results as the TPP through other means. Nevertheless, Trump’s goal is easier to decide upon than to achieve. It took tremendous efforts to get other countries to agree to the TPP. Abe was desperate for the TPP to be adopted – Japan’s parliament ratifying it even after Trump’s election. Difficulties in the TPP therefore create the opportunity for China to promote for a genuine agreement in the Pacific which expands trade rather than the protectionism which was embodied in the TPP. China has become the main pillar of globalisationIt is the above processes which create the strategic fact that it is China that has now become the world’s largest single economy committed to free trade and globalisation – although the EU is also at least in theory a supporter of this process and the EU’s most powerful economy, Germany, is an enormous beneficiary of globalised trade. The world rapidly growing major economy with China, India, is also sharply increasing its economic openness. The percentage of India’s economy devoted to trade is, at current exchange rates, now even slightly above China’s. The powerful positive effect of foreign trade is once more confirmed by the fact that the world’s five most rapidly growing non-oil dominated economies since the early 1990s with populations of more than five million – in descending order China, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and India – all have high percentages of trade in GDP. Therefore, even if the US moves towards protectionism other rapidly growing economies remain committed to globalisation and China’s decisive task is to place itself decisively among and help lead the process of the rapidly growing economies seeking the advantages of international and globalisation. China’s policy and RCEPChina’s strategic policy of supporting freer trade and globalisation can be broken down into a series of initiatives which in present circumstances give it key advantages to play a still greater global role – particularly compared to Trump’s approach in the US. The most important proposal of China is of course to support the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – the proposed FTA between the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) (Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) and the six states with which ASEAN has existing FTAs (Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand). RCEP negotiations were formally launched in November 2012 at the ASEAN Summit in Cambodia. China is arguing for them to be concluded as rapidly as possible. RCEP has numerous advantages over the TPP. In particular, key proposed participants in RCEP are rapidly growing economies (China. India, Vietnam, ASEAN as a whole etc.) whereas the TPP is based on slowly growing economies (Japan, US). Like China’s existing FTAs RCEP builds on real trading relationships – China takes about one third of Australian exports and over 20% of South Korea’s. With full implementation of the FTA agreement with Australia, for example, 95% of Australian exports to China will be tariff free. Unlike the TPP and TTIP, which were primarily based on giving international jurisdiction to institutions which would be controlled by a single country (the US), China’s existing FTAs, like RCEP, emphasise harmonisation of national standards with international supervision and interference reduced to an absolutely necessary minimum. OBOR and AIIB Finally, China has shown its ‘thought leadership’ on globalisation by initiatives which go beyond the approach of the US in GATT and the WTO. These initiatives were based primarily on tariffs, legal changes, regulation etc. They did not address the actual question of creating the material basis for trade. China’s initiatives in One Belt One Road (OBOR) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) go beyond this by laying the basis for practical development of trade, in particular by infrastructure investment. It is for this reason that even before Trump came to office the AIIB and OBOR were attracting great international attention even from traditional allies of the US such as Britain and Germany. ConclusionTo summarise, in very important matters, such as Trump becoming US president, it is necessary to be precise and not exaggerate. It remains to be seen how much Trump’s protectionist rhetoric is translated into protectionist practice. Nevertheless, even the change in rhetoric is important. China has now publicly become the world’s largest nation supporting and acting as a pillar of globalisation. As globalisation is the process which has brought immense benefits to the world economy, and particularly to developing countries, this creates key international strategic openings for China. * * * This article was previously published here on Key Trends in Globalisation and originally appeared in Chinese on Sina Finance.21 Nov
Don’t believe Tory anti-austerity propaganda - By Michael BurkeIn a year of unpleasant political surprises, what are the chances that this Tory government will surprise us by abandoning austerity? In reality, they are vanishingly small.There has been a concerted effort by the mainstream media to portray this government as radically different from its predecessor, even to suggest that it will reverse austerity. But the evidence we have so far suggests exactly the opposite:A lobby to provide the NHS with extra funds as it faces potentially its worst winter ever has been brushed asidePhilip Hammond has offered £2 billion of extra funding for housing (as well as soft loans to small builders) over 4 years, when £30 billion a year is needed to meet the housing shortageThe planned cut in the cap on social security from £26,000 to £23,000 has just been implemented, and down to £20,000 outside LondonA large number of other cuts to pensions, to social security and working tax credits have also been implementedThe government has just announced the postponement of work to electrify the Great Western rail network in south-west England, a £2.8 billion project.  The Northern Powerhouse remains a slogan, not a projectHammond did announce £2 billion package to combat cyber-crime, specifically motivated as ‘this could lead to war’This summary of measures could have been taken straight from the Osborne playbook, with cuts to social security, pensions and other entitlements that all hit working people again combined with further cuts to investment. The only thing that is new is this security and immigration-obsessed government has provided a small amount of funding to conduct cyber-warfare because it feels it is falling behind. If the Osborne approach was completely mimicked in the upcoming Autumn Statement, there would also be a new tax giveaway for big business.There is a fundamental reason for this. The Tories have not implemented austerity because they are ‘the Nasty Party’, although they are. The entire austerity programme, the cuts to public services and pay, cuts to social welfare, cuts to business taxes, further privatisation and cuts to public sector investment all have one central purpose. This is not, as stated, to eliminate the deficit, otherwise the Corporation Tax rate would not have been cut and costly privatisations made, such as Royal Mail or the sale of Lloyds Bank shares. The purpose of austerity is to restore profitability and this has been a failure. Economic weakness from Brexit is sure to hit profits too. In all likelihood the main effort to restore them will be through increasing the rate of exploitation. Brexit will make matters worse. Last March the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast (pdf) that GDP growth would be effectively 2.1% per year over the next 5 years and that the public sector deficit would become a surplus by 2018/19. Public sector debt was forecast to fall every year as a proportion of GDP, beginning this year. The real costs of Brexit should be reflected in much more pessimistic forecasts from the OBR on all these fronts.Even before taking rising prices into account, the level of profits in the second quarter of this year was lower than it was in the third quarter of 2014. Profits are not sufficiently recovering to allow any major reversal of austerity for a government wholly committed to driving down wages and the social wage while giving big handouts to big business.Of course, some tinkering and publicity-seeking measures are likely, as the government pretends to be on the side of working people. No doubt it will be aided by the extremely compliant media. But anti-austerity activists should be clear. This will be the same old austerity Tories as before, and with new motivation to extend it. A version of this piece has previously appeared on the People’s Assembly Against Austerity website.21 Nov
Who are ‘the left behind’? - By Tom O’LearyFollowing the Brexit vote here and the victory of Trump in the US Presidential election there has been much ill-informed discussion of the ‘left behind’, sometimes spuriously described as the white working class who have not benefitted from rising living standards, or even globalisation in general.It is not the purpose of this article to untangle the web of half-truths, distortions and falsehoods that comprise those statements. To take one example, the first great political and social exposition of the effects of ‘globalisation’ can be found in the Communist Manifesto. This sets out the enormous capacity of capitalism to dominate the globe by raising production up to a new, much higher level and so increase the exploitation of both natural resources and labour. It has nothing in common with radical ‘anti-globalisation’, that is protectionist and increasingly anti-immigrant movements in the Western countries.Instead the focus here is narrowly on who are the ‘left behind’ in the UK. They are not the old white workers of the former industrial north, as is commonly portrayed. They are youth, dsiproportionately Asian and black youth. These are the very people who oppose Trump and who largely voted to Remain (71% of them).Table 1 below is taken from a House of Commons Briefing paper ‘Unemployment by ethnic background’ from April 2016. A section of the briefing’s explanatory text is also included. The Table shows that the unemployment rate for people aged 16 to 24 is 14.4%, which compares to an unemployment rate of 3.3% for all those aged over 50 years. But in every age category Asian people are nearly twice as likely to be unemployed and in every age category black people are more than twice as likely to be unemployed. Put another way, if you are young and black you are more than nine times as likely to be unemployed as if you are old and white.Table 1. Unemployment by ethnic background. Source: House of Commons There is a gender element too to who is in fact left behind. Table 2 below is taken from the same briefing. In aggregate the unemployment rate for women is lower than for men. But this is somewhat misleading, as the sample size is lower, 610,000 for women versus 750,000 for men. This reflects the fact that women are more likely to be discouraged from the workforce, or are obliged to be carers within the family. So the lower unemployment rate for women shown here needs to be seen in that context.On this basis, the unemployment rate for women is lower than for men. However, contrary to the general trend the position for Asian women is worse. For them, unemployment is even higher than it is for Asian men. Yet again, the highest rates for unemployment among both women and men is to be found among black women and men.Table 2. Unemployment by ethnic background and gender. Source: House of Commons On pay, it is also the case that workers who are not white are paid less than their white counterparts and colleagues, and that this pay discrimination increases with qualifications. Table 3 is taken from a TUC report into black workers’ pay gap. There is a considerable pay gap for workers from all non-white ethnic groups, on average 75 pence an hour. But this rises to a pay gap £1.72 an hour for black workers on average. This pay gap also increases up the qualifications’ scale, so that black workers with a degree earn nearly a quarter less than their white counterparts, £4.30 less an hour.Table 3. Average earnings by ethnic background and qualifications. Source: TUCIt is a fiction to suggest that the votes for Brexit and for Trump are the ‘left behind’ votes, the victims of deindustrialisation or even its opposite, globalisation. In Britain, the real left behind, much more likely to be unemployed and low paid are youth and especially black and Asian youth. Black people and Asian people in general are also more likely to be unemployed and, if in work, face pay discrimination. Women are also more likely to be discouraged from the workforce, yet Asian women are the sole category of women whose unemployment rate is higher than their male counterparts, even after taking this obstacle into account.These are the primary victims of the third great capitalist slump and they are the ones bearing the main brunt of its effects. Of course, the overwhelming majority of workers and the poor are all worse off because of the crisis. But the by far the biggest victims are youth, especially Asian and black youth, as well as women. They are the real left behind.14 Nov
Brexit cannot have a favourable outcome - By Tom O’LearyThere is no realistic possibility of Brexit resulting in a favourable outcome. Following Brexit, the living standards of the population will be lower. In addition, the capacity for government spending on public services will fall along with its capacity to invest. As a result, it is likely there would the continuation of current trends, where there is a government-sponsored rise in racism, hate crime and xenophobia, in order to distract from the crisis created by government policy.Forecasting Brexit effectsEconomic forecasting is an inexact science. But its findings are also often presented and understood inexactly too. Forecasts can be presented as a range of probabilities but should nearly always be conditional, as outcomes depend on a series of factors outside the main elements of the analysis. So, for example, it is certain that prices will rise much higher than they otherwise would because of the Brexit-induced slump in the value of the pound. But the precise level of consumer price inflation in 2 years’ time must be an unknown without foreknowledge of the level of global commodities’ prices, knowledge of the ability of firms to reduce profit margins, the response of consumers and so on. Yet there is still the certainty that prices will be higher, and that any tariffs will make prices much higher still. Real incomes and living standards will fall.So it is with GDP forecasts. There are two main documents setting out the central projections for the economy if Brexit goes ahead. The first is the analysis from the UK Treasury, the second is from the grouping Economists for Brexit. Both have been subjected to critique and readers interested in those can find them here and here.There are some surprising similarities in the analyses and some huge differences. There are also some important omissions.Taking first a point of agreement, in discussing versions of ‘Hard Brexit’ which would involve the unilateral removal of all trade barriers by the UK, all sides are generally agreed that incomes fall significantly, although the Treasury is the least concerned with this important matter. However, in the model formulated by the principal author for Economists for Brexit Patrick Minford prices will fall much further than incomes, as the UK economy enjoys the fruits of an unfettered and largely unregulated free trade. As a result, in this scenario real incomes rise significantly. This is flatly contradicted by the UK Treasury analysis and the Brexit economists’ critics. Finally, there is widespread confusion about the role of investment in the economy, which means even the most apparently pessimistic scenarios may underestimate the negative effects.Falling prices?Patrick Minford did not receive as much publicity as Alan Walters in terms of his influence on the Thatcher governments. This was almost certainly a mistake as his work was crucial in formulating the ‘supply side miracle’ of Thatcher’s efforts to create unfettered markets in goods, capital and labour. Everything from banking deregulation and Big Bang through to privatisations of state -owned industries, the end of the ‘closed shop’ and now zero-hours contracts all owe something to Minford. He is an important figure in recent British economic history.  He also bears some responsibility for the entire economic debacle of this period and now the crisis caused by the Brexit vote. This is not an ad hominem attack, but is used to show that Minford’s ideas have already been tested in the real world and they have been disastrous. He begins with the reasonable proposition that barriers to trade impose a cost to the idea that the removal of all barriers must be a benefit. This is clearly logically false. There is a cost to imposing fire safety standards on all new homes and public buildings. But there is a far greater cost if buildings frequently burn down and lives are lost.The Minford claim that prices will be lower after Brexit rests on two spurious propositions. The first is that prices are on average 10% higher in some EU countries (or were 14 years ago when the data Minford relies on was collated!) so that these must arise from non-tariff or regulatory barriers inside the EU, which will no longer apply if his ‘Britain Alone’ model is adopted. Secondly, he argues, ignoring both geography and history, that other countries will supply those same goods or services to the UK at prices equivalent to the non-tariff EU prices. Notably in his view, all of this benefit will lead to the elimination of British manufacturing and the huge growth in inequality, even while the economy as a whole is boosted by 4% over the long run.  This is nonsense. Minford’s analysis takes no account of the quality of products. Take housing, the single largest component of household expenditure. The UK housing stock is much more dilapidated than the EU average. Approximately half the proportion of homes in the EU are more than 70 years old compared to Britain. Price should be adjusted for quality, and Minford makes no effort to do that. Higher prices can just as easily denote higher quality goods.But the assertion that other countries will meet the removed EU goods and services is outlandish on two grounds. The British economy is tied through a network of increasingly complex supply chains to the European economy. If those supply chains are severed, it will not be by US or Chinese firms inserting themselves. They cannot under EU rules pass themselves off as EU producers once the UK has left. Nor would they be interested in removing all the non-tariff barriers that protect their firms just to sell into the British economy, which is simply not that important on a world scale.On this issue, the Economists for Brexit are wrong and their critics are right. Prices will rise post-Brexit. They are rising already. As all analyses accept that incomes will fall, this can only mean that living standards as whole will fall significantly.Misunderstanding investmentThe Economists for Brexit pay almost no attention to investment, despite frequent references and a chapter nominally devoted to it. Instead, it is simply asserted that investment will rise following the (spurious) forecast of vastly improved trade at lower prices.  But the Treasury analysis, while much more serious in its examination of the effect on investment, is sorely lacking. In effect, the focus is almost exclusively on the negative impact on Foreign Direct Investment of leaving the EU. As FDI is defined as the ownership of 10% of equity or more, FDI conflates two different things, a change of ownership via overseas acquisition of equity and actual fixed capital investment.The UK economy is in precarious position, with a record current account deficit. FDI inflows offset that, and without it living standards would immediately fall even further. This would be expressed as a further slump in the currency and rising long-term interest rates.  This is a run-down of UK assets to finance UK consumption that exceeds UK production. It is only possible to begin to reverse that with actual fixed capital investment to raise production.  However, Brexit itself makes this both less likely and less effective. Private sector investment becomes less likely with Brexit because investment is driven by returns, the key factors being the size and growth of the target market. Outside the EU, the UK economy is a far smaller market than a component of the Single Market. It will also experience slower growth.  All UK investment also becomes less effective outside the EU. As Adam Smith demonstrated long ago the effectiveness of investment is determined by the size and scope of the market, including, but not confined to well-known factors such as ‘economies of scale’. As the size of the market in which the UK can operate is restricted, the efficiency of investment declines.As a result, of the two main scenarios outlined by the Economists for Brexit makes little sense, while the UK Treasury analysis underestimates the long-term effects of leaving the EU. Things are likely to be worse than they suggest.No ‘People’s Brexit’It would be possible to overcome all of these negative factors if investment were to rise by a large factor. But as we have seen private sector investment will fall.In effect, in order to offset these negative effects public sector net investment would need to both replace reduced private sector investment and increase the aggregate total to compensate for the lower efficiency of investment outside the EU. From about 1.5% of GDP, public sector net investment would have to rise to something like 20% of GDP. This is not a realistic possibility in the current economic and political circumstances in Britain.All likely and realistic Brexit scenarios entail a significant diminution in the living standards of the population. This will include rising prices and lower real incomes, job losses especially in manufacturing and high value-added sectors as well as cuts to public services as government finances deteriorate. The Tory government over 6 years has not been able to generate popular enthusiasm for policies that have led to falling living standards. It has deliberately fostered racism, Islamophobia and xenophobia as a distraction, with some effect.Labour cannot possibly stand on this ground. Aside from the moral bankruptcy and the economic illiteracy this would entail, it could prove fatal. The Tory party can and does subsist on promoting reaction. Labour would risk annihilation as its natural supporters, who overwhelmingly voted Remain, deserted it in droves.The arguments used to support a ‘Lexit’ are spurious and misleading. Overseas workers cannot possibly drive down wages as on average they are more highly paid then UK workers. They are net contributors to public services, not a drain on them. They are not taking anyone’s jobs; record levels of immigrant numbers coincide with record low unemployment.  There is no prospect of better protections for workers, greater environmental protections, better health and safety rules under any likely Brexit government. Unwilling to increase public investment to the required level, they will tolerate or even foster a race to the bottom. It is impossible to fight neoliberalism via Brexit. The UK will become an archetype of neoliberalism.More technical arguments that, for example, EU state aid rules prevent a radical programme of nationalisation are equally spurious. Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell do not propose a large-scale programme of nationalisation, for very good reason. There are not the spare funds to purchase the equity of the energy, transport, building and other firms and the banks. And the political situation simply does not allow any nationalisation without compensation. It would just be posturing to suggest that court orders ruling in favour of private property rights would be overturned or physical seizures of property take place.The limited retrieval of the rail franchises as they fall back into public hands that is planned is realistic and would not at all contravene EU state aid rules. On the contrary, after the Brexit vote the UK is now set to hand out state aid to major manufacturers simply to keep them here.ConclusionIn the concrete circumstances of the UK economy Brexit can only lead to a fall in living standards. Prices will be higher, real incomes lower, and living standards will fall. All political forces who wish to raise living standards will have to fight against it, or overturn it if necessary. There can be no idea of embracing Brexit as a road to prosperity. That is an impossibility in the actual circumstances of British politics and the British economy. 7 Nov
No pointers to a successful Brexit - By Tom O’LearyBrexiteers' crowing over the latest GDP data and the decision by Nissan to invest further in its Sunderland plant is utterly foolish. The negative impact of the vote will take place primarily over the long run, will be felt in terms of trade and above all in investment, and will accelerate after Article 50 is invoked and most especially if Britain actually leaves the EU and the Single Market, scheduled now for some time in 2019.Yet even in the latest events there are clear signs of the problems that will mount. As a series of company announcements have already shown, the first is that prices will rise. By how much is not solely due to the 17% devaluation of the pound but will also be determined by the trend in global commodities’ prices. The certainty is that prices will be much higher than they otherwise would have been, lowering living standards and real incomes.GDPThe GDP data also point to the problems ahead. Aside from the services sector, the rest of the economy fell into recession, as shown in Chart 1 below. Taking the growth rate from a year ago, services have expanded by 3%. But industrial production is just 1.2% higher, manufacturing is 0.4% lower, construction is down 0.2% and agriculture is 1.4% lower.Chart1. GDP and Components Growth Rate in Q3 2016Source: ONSIf the services sector itself is examined, it can be seen that the hotels, restaurants (the sectors that benefit from tourism) grew rapidly and along with the business services and finance. These two benefited from the sharp devaluation of the pound and the interest rate cut by the Bank of England. Together these two sub-sectors contributed 0.3% to GDP growth. The rest of the economy grew by just 0.2%.  Over the long run, as Nigel Lawson was forced to discover, it is not possible to build a ‘candyfloss economy’ based entirely on services. Not only are the productive sectors high value-added, high productivity and higher paid, without them an economy becomes entirely subject to the gyrations of the world economy and world prices, the weakest link in any general crisis. As a result it is not possible to build prosperity over the long without manufacturing and production. In fact the entire British long-term economic crisis that culminated in the referendum vote is characterised by this decline of the productive sectors and the over-dependence on services.NissanThe Nissan deal has been kept secret. The Times reports that Nissan was provided with a written assurance that it would face no detriment in its trading position in the UK. There is speculation that this could be financial compensation for any tariffs, a promise that the car industry will be exempt from tariffs, or a pledge for indirect subsidies via R&D or similar areas.One of the fantasies of the Brexiteers is that leaving the EU will allow the UK to set its own rules. The ‘hardest’ Brexit of all is to fall back on WTO rules. But there is a clue in the name. The WTO has, among other things a plethora of ‘anti-dumping’ rules. Any subsidy to any particular firm or sector would breach those rules, leaving the UK open to penalty under WTO rules and anti-dumping suits by any country which was importing those goods. The same would apply to any government providing R&D subsidies. Nissan will be aware of all this, even if UK ministers for Brexit are not. It can only be imagined that it has received a promise that the government will do all it can to remain in the Single Market. We shall see.28 Oct
Corbyn is right. Migrants don’t drive down wages - By Tom O’LearyIn his recent speech to Labour Party conference Jeremy Corbyn said, “It isn’t migrants that drive down wages, it’s exploitative employers and the politicians who deregulate the labour market and rip up trade union rights.” This is excellent and entirely correct. It is probably the best statement ever made by a Labour leader on this issue.It used to be regularly argued, and not just by far right or fascist groups, that immigrant workers take British workers' jobs. This has more recently been supplanted with the notion that migrant labour has driven down wages. Both are equally wrong.The claims that immigrants take jobs became harder to sustain as the level of the overseas migrant population reached record highs in Britain at the same time as a record high level of employment overall and a record high for employment of UK-born workers. Even so, the most recent Tory party conference tried to revive the racist claims, with lists of foreign workers, removing overseas doctors from the NHS and prioritising immigration controls over economic prosperity. Some of these have already fallen apart while they would all be deeply damaging to the UK economy, as well as fanning the flames of racism.In fact, as shown in Chart 1 the record number of migrant workers now coincides with a record employment rate for workers in the UK. Since the beginning of 1997 the number of migrant (non-UK born) workers in the UK has risen from just under 2 million to nearly 5.5 million in mid-2016. At the same time the employment rate of workers in the UK has risen from 70.8% to 74.5%, a new all-time high (the unemployment rate is also close to its all-time low at 4.9%). No-one is having their job taken by a migrant worker.Chart.1 Record Employment Rate in UK, % & Record Level of Migrant Workers, 000s Instead, the anti-immigrant rhetoric has more recently focused on the claimed negative impact on wages arising from immigration. As this false idea has some sway even in the labour movement it is worth dealing with the false economic logic which forms its basis.Employment and wagesThe false claim that immigration drives down wages has long been exposed as relying on the 'lump of labour fallacy' . The long history of capitalism in general is that more and more workers across the globe are brought into production. That is still happening to this day. At the same time, for the overwhelming majority of those workers their material conditions have risen enormously over the same period. The growth of the workforce has been matched by the growth in the work available. This is because of the growth of the productive capacity of the global economy, in which workers fight for a share.  Instead the attack has switched to the alleged impact of immigration on wages. As the discussion of this issue is so loaded with emotion and confusion in a country like Britain, it is important to set out some clear points of reference.Objectively, there is no difference between a worker who travels ten miles, hundreds of miles or thousands of miles for work. There is of course no difference in terms of their skin colour, religion, gender, sexuality or nationality. Wages in any city or town are not more or less affected by the immigration of a worker from the next county than from a different continent.Yet the idea that wages are driven down by immigration, that the price of labour (wages) is determined by the increased supply of labour from migration is closely related to the lump of labour fallacy. They both depend on the notion there is a fixed amount of work or fixed amount of wages, and that in both cases these are adversely affected by increasing the supply of labour through immigration. For the lump of labour, now read the 'pool of wages'. These are false notions.Wages have an absolute floor and an absolute cap. The absolute floor is set somewhere below the minimum levels of subsistence for the continued existence of the workers. In some cases, where slavery existed within capitalist production such as in the Southern United States or the European colonial powers’ operations in Africa and elsewhere, the workforce had to be constantly replaced as lives were destroyed in the production process.  The absolute cap on wages is set by the absolute level of value created by all firms (which each individual firm shares in). Firms cannot sustainably increase the level of wages beyond the total value created, otherwise all firms would go bust. In addition, the value created will tend to rise as capital is accumulated over time (even though, as now there may be distinct periods of crisis when there is little or no accumulation). As capital accumulates and the productive capacity of the economy rises, the absolute cap on wages will also rise.Yet most wages are set well within those bounds and by different factors. It is widely understood that there are two principal destinations for the value created in an economy. In Marxist terms, these are the value created by labour a portion of which is claimed by the capitalists, 'surplus value'. In mainstream economics there is instead a focus on the labour share of national income and capital's share of national income. Income is not the same as value so these are an only approximate guide to total value created and the portion claimed as surplus value.These proportions or ratios of value/income are not stable over time. In the Western economies the labour share of national income has been falling for a prolonged period. Chart 2 below shows the OECD estimate of the labour share of national income in selected groups of OECD economies from 1969 to 2014.Chart 2 Labour Share of National Income, 1969 to 2014 As the chart shows there has been a dramatic decline in the labour share of national income. This is sometimes and mistakenly attributed to the forces of globalisation, that somehow workers in poorer countries have 'taken the jobs' or driven down wages in the advanced industrialised countries. This is simply a geographic variant on the 'lump of labour' or 'pool of wages' notions.Chart 3 below the level of labour productivity in the G20 economies and the real wage index from 1995 to 2013, which includes the period which is regarded as one of accelerating globalisation. If labour in the advanced countries was being undercut by labour in poorer countries it would be extremely difficult for there to have been a rise in labour productivity in those countries. Production, especially high-value production would have been shifted overseas.Instead, the chart shows that the rate of exploitation in the G20 increased over the period. A greater proportion of the value created by labour was claimed by capital as surplus value; the capital chare of national income rose.Chart 3 Labour Productivity and Real Wage Index 1995 in G20, 1995 to 2013 StruggleAs the chart shows, the output per worker in these advanced economies rose more than three times as fast as the rise in real wages, which were close to stagnation. The workers in the advanced industrialised countries were not being undercut by workers in the 'Third World'. They were being robbed even more by their employers in the advanced countries.Within the absolute caps and floors set for wages by the value created by labour within all firms and the subsistence of the workers, the general and continuous contest between labour and capital over the share of that surplus is set by the class struggle. Over a prolonged period this is a struggle the capitalist class has been winning in the advanced industrialised countries.In the OECD economies the proportion of workers in part-time employment has risen from 5.4% in 1960 to over 20% in 2015. Union densities were 35.6% in 1975 and had fallen to less than half that, just 16.7% by 2014. It is not workers outside the advanced industrialised countries who have lowered wages in the G20 countries. It is the capitalist class in the G20 which has robbed workers of a greater proportion of the value they create.Of course, it is in the interests of those same capitalists to foster the idea that someone else is to blame. This partly accounts for the tenacity of these very false ideas. It also explains why far right and fascist groupings are tolerated or even promoted by big business, sometimes even funded by them.But it is impermissible for the labour movement to adopt these ideas or even to adapt to them. This is not primarily a question of political morality, although that should enter calculations. The reason the labour movement as a whole should thoroughly reject any notion that jobs or wages are lost to migrant workers is primarily self-interest.There is no example anywhere in history of a ruling class that offered to make one section of workers better off at the expense of others and that made good its promise to the former. Yes, it is possible to systematise discrimination against one of more sections of workers and make their lives an absolute misery, or even worse. But the distractions of racism, xenophobia, frenzied attacks on religious or national groups and so on are precisely that; designed to distract from the absence of any strategy to lead society out of its morass. The workers not directly under attack are only ever relatively better off. Their absolute conditions never improve as a result, and often worsen. The poor whites of Southern United States were immeasurably better off than the black slaves. But their living conditions did not improve, and ultimately the whole parasitic, bloodthirsty society had to be crushed by the industrial North.If the labour movement pays the slightest lip service to these lies it does itself great injury. It disarms itself in the class struggle by agreeing that it is foreign workers, not rapacious bosses who have driven down wages, increased rents and increased prices.  In fact the true position is that migrants add to net prosperity for the whole of society. Even if that view is not widely accepted in Britain, we may soon be provided with incontrovertible proof that it is correct. Unfortunately, this may well be a negative proof, as the Tory Government clearly aims to reduce immigration even at the expense of falling living standards. A position that used to be confined to UKIP's cranks is now government policy. All our living standards will fall further as a result, if this policy is implemented. The labour movement has every reason to oppose its implementation.17 Oct
Medwatcher Japan takes on GAVCS - By Norma Erickson Gardasil and Cervarix: The medical consumer safety group Medwatcher Japan and the GAVCS (Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety) are at odds regarding HPV vaccine safety, efficacy and need. Medwatcher also made allegations of scientific misconduct and coercion on the part of GAVCS. Gardasil and Cervarix were included in Japan’s national immunization program for only six weeks in 2013 before government health officials rescinded their recommendation for HPV vaccine use due to the high rate of serious adverse events being reported following vaccine administration. This decision set off a firestorm of controversy that shows no sign of rapid resolution. (More information here) Pharmaceutical companies, vaccine stakeholders and international health authorities such as GAVCS declare HPV vaccines safe and effective while dismissing the reported adverse events as coincidence, hysteria, or downright lies. These groups continue to push for increased vaccine uptake in Japan claiming lives will be lost if vaccine uptake is not strong. Scientists, medical professionals and HPV vaccine survivor groups say a temporal relationship between HPV vaccines and excessive adverse events exists which warrants acknowledgement and independent investigation. They believe regardless of what caused the new medical conditions, the girls deserve recognition and treatment for their symptoms. They believe HPV vaccine administration should be halted until such time as efficacy can be established and safety issues are resolved. The most recent development in this ongoing debate was the following announcement published by Medwatcher Japan on 2 November 2016: Medwatcher Japan submitted “Refutation of GACVS (Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety) statement on Safety of HPV vaccine on December17, 2015” to WHO on November 2, 2016. Medwatcher Japan firmly rejects as flawed and totally unacceptable the Committee’s “Statement on Safety of HPV Vaccines: 17 December 2015”. The GACVS statement not only exhibits an incorrect understanding of the situation in Japan but also reveals a mistaken assessment of the risk-benefit balance of this vaccine. Moreover, the WHO has clearly overstepped its mandate by publically criticizing Japan’s policy decision to withdraw active support for HPV vaccination, and by mischaracterizing that decision as being based on “weak evidence…that can result in real harm”. This attempt to coerce Japan, in the public arena, into adopting a fundamentally flawed and misguided vaccination policy goes against the very fundamentals of national health policy-making-;namely that appropriate preventive measures should be established by each individual country taking into account the state of disease prevalence, hygienic environment, education, and economic status in that country. Refutation of the Committee’s statement is detailed in the following document with respect to AE reporting, data collection and analysis, composition of the National Expert Committee, the Genetic basis of autoimmunity, and correct understanding of relative risk reduction (RRR) versus actual risk reduction (ARR). Medwatcher Japan strongly urges the members of GACVS to refrain from making coercive statements about Japan’s national health policy-making and to reconsider the safety of HPV vaccines after actually conducting their own investigation into the symptoms following HPV vaccination. (see original article here) (read the entire complaint here) Here is an excerpt from the GAVCS Statement on Safety of HPV vaccines, issued 17 December 2015 to which Medwatcher Japan was responding: The circumstances in Japan, where the occurrence of chronic pain and other symptoms in some vaccine recipients has led to suspension of the proactive recommendation for routine use of vaccine in the national immunization program, warrants additional comment. Review of clinical data by the national expert committee led to a conclusion that symptoms were not related to the vaccine, but it has not been possible to reach consensus to resume HPV vaccination. As a result, young women are being left vulnerable to HPV-related cancers that otherwise could be prevented. As GACVS has noted previously, policy decisions based on weak evidence, leading to lack of use of safe and effective vaccines, can result in real harm5. (Read the entire statement here.) Theoretically, this battle could go on indefinitely. What is anyone supposed to believe when health authorities say one thing and the evidence in front of your face indicates something entirely different? This is exactly the situation parents throughout Japan, and the rest of the world for that matter, are faced with. It is no different for the medical professionals who are trying to treat all of the mysterious new medical conditions appearing after HPV vaccine administration. The evidence in front of their face every day does not support what the vaccine stakeholders are telling everyone. What now? First, everyone must understand science is a process by which knowledge is gained using observation, identification, description, experimental investigation, and theoretical explanation of phenomena. Science is an evolutionary process, never a settled issue. Second, everyone has to remember families are suffering. Thousands of children are experiencing debilitating new medical conditions no one seems to be able to explain. They deserve honest medical assessment and appropriate medical treatments regardless of what the ultimate cause is determined to be. Third, the longer health authorities ignore the problem the less trust people have in the agencies they represent. This issue needs resolution. Families will not tolerate years of battling the details in the press. They need help now. Fourth, it is painfully obvious health authorities are doing little to maintain or restore public trust. Time for political representatives to step up? Medwatcher Japan is an organization of consumer advocates, medical, legal and scientific experts dedicated to monitoring and preventing drug-induced disasters. By bringing the issue out in the open, they have made the first step toward avoiding what could very well turn out to be a huge drug-induced disaster. Now it is time for politicians to take the lead. After all, they have been elected to protect and serve those who put them in office. Will they take any of the following steps to help solve the problem? Hold open public scientific debates between scientists/medical professionals representing the manufacturers of HPV vaccines and scientific/medical professionals concerned about the safety, efficacy or need for HPV vaccines. Establish independent scientific and/or medical teams to investigate any unresolved concerns arising from said debates. Establish medical teams to thoroughly examine anyone with new medical conditions after HPV vaccine administration. Establish medical teams to develop successful treatment protocols for those with new medical conditions. The time for pretending there is no problem is long past. If concrete actions are not taken soon all hope of restoring the public’s faith in national and international health authorities will be gone forever. The post Medwatcher Japan takes on GAVCS appeared first on SaneVax, Inc.. 7 Nov
HPV Vaccines in China: What Constitutes a Trade Secret? - by Chen I-wan, Researcher, Biological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation [Note from SaneVax: The article below was written by a citizen of China who is concerned about the public having enough information to make a sound decision about the proposed use of HPV vaccines in his country. The SaneVax Team believes he has a valid point. Why did citizens of China have to petition their government for access to clinical trial data currently available via multiple national and international government sponsored internet sites? Why is information regarding HPV vaccines which is open for public view throughout most of the world deemed a ‘trade secret’ in China? These questions are particularly relevant when you consider the heated controversy surrounding HPV vaccination programs in so many countries around the world. Is it possible that Director Bi Jing-quan, leader of China’s State Bureau of Food & Drug Administration knows information contained in clinical trial data would reveal substantial safety concerns surrounding HPV vaccines? Does Director Bi Jing-quan think the citizens of China would be eager to use HPV vaccines if they knew the true rate of adverse events is not known because no inert placebos were used during clinical trials? Is that one of the reasons HPV vaccine clinical trial data is a ‘trade secret’ in China?] Why does China’s Food & Drug Administration, led by director Bi Jing-quan, refuse to disclose the toxicology report and clinical trial report by GSK on their HPV vaccine? In July 2016, Beijing food safety volunteers submitted a “government information disclosure application” to the Chinese State Bureau of Food & Drug Supervisory Administration (State Bureau), requesting the release of toxicology test results and data from clinical trials GSK carried out on 6,000 Chinese females prior to their HPV Cervarix® vaccine being approved by the State Bureau. The “Government Information Disclosure Notifying Document” issued by the State Bureau on Aug. 22, 2016 outrageously argued: “The information concerning clinical trial data you requested involves enterprise commercial secrets so does not fall under scope of government information disclosure.” The “Government Information Disclosure Notifying Document” issued on Aug. 22, 2016 by the Chinese State Bureau of Food & Drug Supervisory Administration. When considering the safety and efficacy evaluation of new drugs and vaccines, what constitutes a ‘trade secret’? What information should be kept confidential and not disclosed to the public? What information is not considered to be a ‘trade secret’ and should be disclosed to the public? Consider the U.S. FDA definition of “Trade Secrets” below: According to the U.S. FDA: “A trade secret may consist of any commercially valuable plan, formula, process, or device that is used for the making, preparing, compounding, or processing of trade commodities and that can be said to be the end product of either innovation or substantial effort. There must be a direct relationship between the trade secret and the productive process. Trade secrets include such things as a company’s manufacturing processes and precise product formulations. The Task Force believes that trade secrets have limited value for public disclosure, and that the value for public disclosure of other types of data, such as clinical trial results and adverse event reports, is significantly greater.”   The U.S. FDA official website has disclosed and posted: 1) Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., Toxicology Review of Human Papillomavirus 0-Valient Vaccine, Recombinant (45 pages) 2) VRBPAC Background Document, GardasilTM HPV Quadrivalent Vaccine, May 18, 2006 VRBPAC meeting (30 pages) 3) Clinical Review of Biologics License Application for Human Papillomavirus, manufactured by Merck, Inc. By Nancy B. Miller, M.D. Medical Officer, Vaccines Clinical Trial Branch, Division of Vaccines and Related Products Application, Office of Vaccines Research and Review, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, FDA (464 pages) 4) Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Registration Study (Gardasil), Last updated: Jan. 7, 2016 (Completed) (Full Text View + Result: 10 pages) The U.S. NIH (National Institutes of Health) has disclosed and posted: Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Registration Study (Gardasil)(V501-023)(COMPLETED) Europe’s EMA (European Medicines Agency) has disclosed and posted: Scientific Discussions (Gardasil – Merck), EMA, 2006 (40 pages) Why does the Chinese State Bureau of Food & Drug Supervisory Administration led by Party Secretary and Director Bi Jing-quan refuse to disclose GSK’s toxicology reports and clinical trial data on their HPV vaccine? All those who work to impede the “Healthy China” strategy proposed by chairman Xi Jin-ping, or in any manner harm sustainable safety, health, survival and reproduction of the Chinese nation, are all felony sinners against the Chinese nation, and absolutely cannot escape ruling and punishment by the people’s court! (Note: The above article was written by Chen I-wan, Researcher, Biological disaster prevention and mitigation, and posted on Advisor Chen I-wan Blog on September 25, 2016) Read this article on the Chinese site here. The post HPV Vaccines in China: What Constitutes a Trade Secret? appeared first on SaneVax, Inc..27 Sep
California’s Amazing Geology [Greg Laden's Blog] - California’s Amazing Geology by Don Prothero is an amazing book about — wait for it — California’s geology! California is one of the most geologically interesting and complex geopolitical units in the world. But so is Minnesota, and Minnesota is boring, geologically, for most people. Why? Because Minnesota is all eroded down and flattened out and covered with glacial till, so most of the interesting geology is buried, while California is actively engaged in its own geology in a spectacular and visually appealing way! Lots of places have volcanoes. California has volcanoes that blow up, or that have erupted recently enough (geologically speaking) that you can still see the stuff laying all over the place they spewed out. Lots of places have rifting. Hell, one of the most interesting and important rifts in global geological history is right here in Minnesota. But, do people go to Duluth to see that rift, or to see Bob Dylan’s house? The latter, I think. In Califonria, there are three or four different kinds of major tectonic activity, including lots of plate tectonic movement, some spreading, and a big chunk of the amazing Basin and Range extension phenomenon. (That was where what is roughly Nevada and big sections of Utah and California stretched out to several times its original size. In the old days, Reno and Salt Lake Cities wold have been in the same Congressional District!) California doesn’t’ just have mountains. It has several different kinds of mountains, most of which are currently actively forming right before our very eyes, or so recently formed they still have the tags hanging off them. California’s Amazing Geology begins with several chapters on basic geology. If you know basic geology you can skip quickly through this and refer back later when you forget something. Then there are several sections each dealing with a different geological region. Then, there is a chapter that literally puts it all together (“Assembling California”). Following this is a compendium of information on California’s main geological resources (gold, oil, water, etc., including fossils!) There are three things you need to know about this book. First, it covers everything pretty completely, considering the vastness of California and the fact that the book is 480 pages long. Second, it is very up to date. There aren’t any up to date books about California Geology. Third, it is written by Don Prothero, which means that complicated and nuanced scientific topics are explained in a way that a reasonably educated non expert can totally understand. Books like this all too commonly fall into jargonistic language either because the author has no clue it is happening, or because they are written for a highly specialized audience (and maybe the author is even a bit insecure). Don Prothero does not do that. He simply gives you the information in a respectfully, clear, understandable, but not watered down manner. A lot of people will tell you that is not possible. They are wrong, and Prothero does it all the time. The illustrations, many by Don’s son, are excellent and numerous. By the way, if you want to know more about how one goes about writing books like this, and how Don’s approach works, check out this interview with the man himself. This is a bit of a specialized book unless you frequently visit or live in California. It is suitable as a textbook in college, but also, in just the right California science elective class. If you you are a modern student of natural history and California is in your catchment, this is a must-have book. I am a little confused about its availability. The publication date is 2017, I got a pre-publication review copy, but it looks like you can actually buy it on Amazon now. But, I’m not sure what happens if you click through, maybe they tell you it will be delivered in January. Here is the TOC: FUNDAMENTALS OF GEOLOGY The Golden State Building Blocks: Minerals and Rocks Dating California: Stratigraphy and Geochronology The Big Picture: Tectonics and Structural Geology Earthquakes and Seismology GEOLOGIC PROVINCES OF CALIFORNIA Young Volcanoes: The Cascades and Modoc Plateau The Broken Land: The Basin and Range Province Gold, Glaciers, and Granitics: The Sierra Nevada Mountains Mantle Rocks and Exotic Terranes: The Klamath Mountains Oil and Agriculture: The Great Valley The San Andreas Fault Zone Melanges, Granitics, and Ophiolites: The Coast Ranges Compression, Rotation, Uplift: The Transverse Ranges and Adjacent Basins Granitics, Gems, and Geothermal Springs: The Peninsular Ranges and Salton Trough Assembling California: A Four-Dimensional Jigsaw Puzzle CALIFORNIA’S GEOLOGIC RESOURCES California Gold California Oil California Water California’s Coasts California’s Fossil Resources 21 Dec
Comments of the Week #140: from becoming an astronaut to a perfect Universe [Starts With A Bang] - “You’re not looking for perfection in your partner. Perfection is all about the ego. With soulmate love, you know that true love is what happens when disappointment sets in – and you’re willing to deal maturely with these disappointments.” -Karen Salmansohn It’s been a great week full of great stories from the Universe here at Starts With A Bang! The topic for the next podcast has been chosen and you should get to see it all next week: on whether our Universe is the inside of a black hole or not! (It’s a fun one; you won’t want to miss it!) Most of us were clouded out of the Geminids, but that doesn’t mean this past week wasn’t a delight for scientific stories, including: How do I become an astronaut/astrophysicist? (for Ask Ethan), Supernovae glow for decades thanks to radioactivity (for Mostly Mute Monday), Spinning black hole swallows star, No, Earth is not overdue for a massive asteroid strike, Why does the ‘Windchill factor’ make you feel so cold, and A perfect Universe: could it have been born completely uniform? For the ad-free fiends, these all go up a one-week delay over on Medium. Also, our Patreon support is a whopping 96% of the way to the next reward; can you help us get there? Finally, the book I’ve been working on gets turned in this week, so we’re almost there! And now, welcome to the best of what you’ve had to say on our comments of the week! The global temperature anomaly for the year 2015, the hottest year on record until 2016 ends and breaks it. Image credit: NSA/GSFC/Scientific Visualization Studio. From Denier on truth, information and censorship: “Perhaps we have a right to be free from misinformation masquerading as truths, too. That is a completely terrifying idea. I’m curious. After you have abolished the First Amendment, who do you propose should prosecute these violations of truth rights? […] The point of my argument is this: When Global Warming Deniers spout off ad hominem attacks to discredit the idea of man made climate change, I cringe. Your ideas on this ring of a proactive ad hominem defense, and it is just as cringe worthy. Ideas should be evaluated by their worth…” This is a hard problem. I have never advocated abolishing the first amendment — which, by the way, is about the government not making laws to restrict the freedom of the press or of the people to speech or assembly — nor do I advocate for it here. It is not a crime to be ignorant. It is not a crime to share your opinion. And you assert that it’s not a crime to lie. That it’s not a crime to willfully lie in an attempt to mislead people. Except, of course, where it is, as your lawyer friends-and-spouse will tell you. We have all sorts of laws about the truth. There are truth in advertising laws. The FBI itself is inherently an anti-corruption agency. There are anti-fraud laws for the SEC. There are fraud and abuse laws for medical professionals. What you are saying is that scientific fraud, denial, or lying about it is not an abuse that is criminal today, and that doesn’t deserve to be. You are also saying that non-legal measures, like for: search engines and social networking sites to elevate the truth while treating lies like spam, for journalists and publications to have an obligation to report the truth rather than whatever agenda they choose, and that people should out-shout lies with truths, should be abhorred as well. The second of those, by the way, is what I’ve explicitly advocated for many times over. But you deride all of those possibilities. So that is your position. And you want me to defend the antithesis of that? How is your position defensible? Trofim Lysenko (L), speaking at the Kremlin with Joseph Stalin (R) looking on in 1935. From eric on the same topic, attempting to interpret my thoughts, “Reading all of his comments on the subject together, it seems to me his tone is about 90% wishing the public would be more educated and less naively accepting consumers of news, and about 10% wishing there was a better way to address libel, slander, con artistry, lying for political benefit, and similar types of expression.” My point is not that scientists and PhDs should have the exclusive voices on policy; that was never my intention. It is that when it comes to factual information, there are correct statements and there are incorrect ones. There are truths that come about from looking at the full suite of evidence, and there are lies that come about from failing to do so. And that should be where the policy conversation begins: with everyone agreeing on the facts. We have not reached that point. There are people in power — and people supporting them — actively working against that point. This, in my book, is a problem. If it is not a problem in your book (not directed at eric or anyone in particular, for that matter), perhaps you can explain why. And perhaps, while you’re at it, you can explain how we can expect to have a nation and a world that moves forwards rather than slides into darkness and ignorance, because I sure can’t see it. Thanks for the interesting discussion about this topic, though. Mostly civil, too, which I appreciate! Landsat7 and EO-1 trailing. Image credit: NASA / GSFC. From EpiPete on satellite formation flying: ““…what you saw was most likely a very temporary configuration…” But possibly not, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_formation_flying andhttp://atrain.nasa.gov/constellation_flying.php“ Absolutely! And this is exciting, because formation flying allows us to obtain information over time in a semi-continuous manner. Satellites in this configuration offer the possibility of monitoring the same points on Earth repeatedly over longer timescales and at higher resolutions than a single satellite would ever allow. If what was originally seen was a formation flying of multiple satellites, know that this is what you gain from it. Astronaut Stephen K. Robinson, STS-114 mission specialist, anchored to a foot restraint on the International Space Station’s Canadarm2, participates in the mission’s third session of extravehicular activity (EVA). Image credit: NASA. From Ed Bailey on becoming an astronaut/astrophysicist: “…you can have all the drive and love you want, but some people aren’t as smart as others.. I guess I could’ve stayed into astronomy more as I was working through my life, and maybe I could have a apo refractor now. But a 5 inch reflector is going to have to do.I enjoy reading the posts and articles about astronomy on FB and the internet, heck i’ve even read some articles about particle physics, that leave the math out. Inner space to outer space, that’s some fascinating stuff!” You know, the Universe — at least as I see it — is a collection of wonderful stories. It is our pursuit of knowledge in all its forms and on all scales. It is a look back at the earliest of times, the largest assemblages of structure, and our cosmic cousins. It is something that everyone can be involved in, whether that means actively working on or merely being aware of and appreciating. That is the greatest part of science and of scientific knowledge: it’s for everyone. Part of why I do what I do is to bring that story, as best as we know it, to all of you. Image credit: ESA/NASA, of Andre Kuipers, via http://www.esa.int/spaceinimages/Images/2014/05/Andre_Kuipers_water_droplet. From Craig Thomas: “There is very little heat transfer in a [vacuum], so the immediate effect on the outer cells of a sudden drop in pressure is that they will boil. As the outermost parts of the body boil off, the rest of the body becomes gradually in turn exposed to the sudden drop in pressure and boils away too. Only once the temperature drops to below -50 does the vapor and decompressed bits of body turn solid.” Super true! In a vacuum, the way things loose heat is by radiation, which is not necessarily very efficient. As far as ferezing or boiling goes, I answered this question for water in space about 2 years ago. It might be time to do an updated version for the approaching new year! Collecting data from telescopes is just one small part of the work done by the astrophysics community. Image credit: NASA, of the control room at Table Mountain Observatory. From eric on becoming a scientist: “I would add to that that the day-to-day life of most scientists is typically very mundane. Its not all that exciting. There are of course exceptions, but I wouldn’t go into science expecting that you’re going to spend 8-6 collecting blood samples from sedated tigers in the jungle or observing the first ever images of flowing water on Mars.” You are describing the slog. The sitting at your desk and calculating. The sitting at a computer and programming. The grant writing. The proposals. The waiting. The composing messages. You know: the day-to-day work of it all. If you don’t like that — if you hate every day and only live for the big victories and milestones — it probably isn’t for you. There are lots of career choices and paths you can take, and you are not a failure if you don’t choose the ones that your mentors did. The beauty of your life is that you get to define what success means for it. This artist’s impression depicts a rapidly spinning supermassive black hole surrounded by an accretion disc. A tidally disrupted star may be responsible for the matter, and for the luminous emissions that result. Image credit: ESA/Hubble, ESO, M. Kornmesser. From Denier on this spinning black hole, not a supernova: “Is it theorized to be super bright because that type of event produces more energy than a supernova? Or is was it super bright because the curvature of the time-space around the SMBH acted as a lens to focus a greater portion of the energy released in our direction? Was it intrinsically brighter or just brighter to us?” So yes, this should produce more energy than a supernova. In particular, it should produce more luminous energy than a supernova, which is why multiwavelength observations were essential. The absolute magnitude (-23.5) was more than twice as luminous as any recorded supernova. The spectral features, in detail, differ from supernovae but align with luminous flares. But it requires a supermassive black hole and rapid rotation to reproduce the late-time UV brightening seen along with the spectral lines. The increase in temperature (top graph) and the re-brightening (bottom) when all other supernovae fail to show these features indicate that tidal disruption, not core collapse, is likely at play here. Image credit: G. Leloudas et al., Nature Astronomy 1, Article number: 0002 (2016). Lensing doesn’t play a role. You can read the whole paper (full text) here if you want to see it for yourself. It’s a remarkable find and a great discovery. Objects like this may be much rarer than supernovae, but it’s very exciting that they exist at all! A planetoid colliding with Earth, analogous (but larger and slower-moving) than an impact between Swift-Tuttle and Earth would be. Image credit: NASA / Don Davis. From Omega Centauri on asteroid fear-mongering: “This latest release strikes me as an attempt at Phishing the incoming president. Maybe he will throw big resources at NASA if they can convince him? The labs of course would supply the Nuclear explosive expertise, they would love to be seen in a new light.” The thing is, nuclear technology is incredibly useful. I have long been an advocate of nuclear power for green energy, for Pu-239 for space exploration, and — if we actually did need asteroid redirection — for a nuclear explosion as the best current technological option. But counting on that last option as a motivator is… a little ridiculous? I didn’t think it was a sales pitch, but what do I know; if it sells, maybe I should shut up and take the NASA funding however it comes! It is a shame that scientists are not given the same autonomy to evaluate their own field and the field’s scientific priorities the way that say, economists are. The head of NASA has practically no authority over what’s funded compared to, say, the way the federal reserve has authority over what the fiscal policy and the interest rates of the United States are. Why is that? I am sure the people who want to keep scientists out of science policy will happily tell me! This is Mars, but it sure does look like Arizona. Just add heat, right? Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / Cornell / Arizona State Univ. From ToSeek on a hot breeze on a hot day: “In the summer, it’s the opposite: breezes are welcome, and there’s nothing much worse than have it be hot, sticky, and still (as summers generally are here in the mid-Atlantic).” Not hot enough in the mid-Atlantic. I am explicitly referring to when I lived in Tucson, AZ. When the temperature is well over 100 ºF (38 ºC) and the wind blows, it’s like turning a hot blowdryer on your sweaty body. It makes it so much worse. I am not sure, from a scientific standpoint, where the temperature/wind/humidity line lies, but I am sure that what I experienced was horrific from a biological point of view. The anatomy of an evaporative cooler. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons user Nevit. From Young CC Prof on the same topic: “I can tell you that at sufficiently high temperatures (well above the human body) a breeze actually does heat you up further, by stripping away the blanket of slightly cooler air that sweat evaporation created on your skin.” The beauty of a swamp (evaporative) cooler is that in dry climates, the evaporation process can cool the air by about 21 ºF (12 ºC) from outside to inside. If your sweaty skin acts like a swamp cooler, that keeps you cool as well. But if that cool air is immediately replaced with hotter air blasting you… trust me, you won’t feel cool. You will feel gross. And like you want to move anywhere else. Anywhere. Arizona and I don’t exactly get along in the summer. Image credit: E. Siegel, of the GUT baryogenesis scenario. And finally, from Anonymous Coward on the fundamental asymmetry of the Universe: “And it turns out that asymmetry is actually the origin of all creation. If the laws of the universe were perfectly symmetrical the universe would be empty.” This is true in a great many ways. If the laws of physics were symmetric between matter and antimatter, there would be no stars or galaxies. The density of the Universe would be about a factor of 10^10 lower. But if there were even more symmetries: Particles wouldn’t have rest mass, as an unbroken Higgs/electroweak symmetry would forbid it. Decays would never happen as they do if C, P and T symmetries were all independently conserved. If there were no initial, asymmetric density fluctuations in the Universe, structure couldn’t have formed. And if the conformal symmetry weren’t broken, we’d never get asymptotic freedom; we couldn’t have atomic nuclei. Really, all of existence depends on nature not being symmetric. The next time you think about theories with additional symmetries — SUSY, string theory, etc. — think about that. Thanks for a great week everyone; keep on expressing yourselves and disagreeing like the thoughtful adults you are. I appreciate it, and can’t wait to see you back here soon! 18 Dec
The End Of America The Free, America The Brave [Greg Laden's Blog] - Putin probably owns Trump. In the past, Trump has spent enough high profile time traveling in and out of Russia, that any smart intelligence agency would have long ago gotten the goods on such a sloppy self absorbed person. Assume there are movies. Young girls. Whatever. Putin probably owns Trump. The ex KGB officer probably owns a lot of people, a lot of foreign rich or influential individuals. That’s how these things work. Trump is a man that relies on the image of great personal wealth. But, if he has great personal wealth it is a mere couple of billion or so. Alternatively, he may have mostly debt and a few hundred million handy. Nobody knows, and he’s not releasing that information. The point is, he views himself as righteously rich, but he may not be as rich as he considered his right. There are a lot of hungry people in this world, and he is not one of them. But he probably thinks he is. Putin is the richest person on the planet now or ever. He beats second place Bill Gates by several billion. Putin has gotten this rich by exploiting his position as the permanent leader of Russia (despite a democracy there). Did I mention that Putin probably owns Trump? Trump is going to separate his business interests from his activities as president using the following procedure: 1) Put the offspring in charge of the business. 2) Place the offspring in the room at all important presidential meetings. 3) Claim that he is keeping his business holdings and his job as president separate. Did I mention that Putin probably owns Trump? And that Trump wants to garner great wealth? Dots, connect thyselves: Trump is driven to become more wealthy than he is. This is his personality, and it may even be financially necessary for him. Putin has owned Trump for a long time. One question we have now is this: How long ago did Putin approach Trump with the idea that, with Russian help, Trump could become president, piles of money could flow into the Trump coffers, and all Trump had to do is to allow Putin carry out certain geopolitical acts that, after all, might even be good for business? Do American intelligence agencies have a record of Trump-Putin communication, direct or indirect, over a long period of time? Have they been talking? For how long? About what? It would make sense to Trump to help Putin carry out one of Russia’s greatest long term goals, a goal held since the 17th century, assuming Trump comes out of the deal rich, not in debt. Russia has always had a landlocked problem. Sure, Russia has vast coastal regions but they are mostly in the Arctic or nearly so. Russia has always lusted for a route to the Indian Ocean, a route to the Mediterranean, and a better route to the Atlantic. And, breadbaskets and buffer zones and mining resources and all of that. What has kept Russia from doing this? Well, initially, not much, and that is why the Soviet Union was so big. But the expansion of the Soviet Union was hampered by the Americans who, for example, carried out a proxy war with the USSR in Afghanistan. NATO has kept Russia from re-expanding its direct influence across Europe. Various coalitions have kept Russia from invading West Asian territories such as Iran, Iraq, and Syria. The United States is a, if not the, prime mover behind all of that. And where I say “is” I think we will soon be saying “was.” Why? Did I mention that Putin probably owns Trump? With Trump in Putin’s pocket, Russia will take territory in the Middle East and Europe. Russia and the United States together, under Putin and Trump, will try to destabilize the sleeping dragon, China. We may be looking at new places to have proxy wars, but the proxy wars will not be between the US and Russia. They will be between Russia and NATO or others, with the US interfering on Russia’s behalf, maybe pulling out of Nato, and maybe even joining Russian troops in places like the Middle East or Africa. Perhaps they will be between the US as a Russian proxy and China in Africa where China has been exerting influence for a long time now, or Russia and various European forces in West Asia, or between Russia and some combination of powerful South Asian countries in Afghanistan. (Note to Trump: Do pull out of Afghanistan as soon as possible so Vlad can get in there. Thanks.) In January the United States is going to be taken over by a coalition of two oligarchs: Putin and Trump (but Putin probably owns Trump). So, that’s the America the Free part gone. What about the America the Brave part? Starting in a few days, we will be led by a coalition of cowards and morons. They are known collectively as the Republicans. The Republican Party has spent the last few decades training itself to be the most ignorant group of know nothings that ever held power anywhere, beyond the level that could be parodied by the most extreme Monty Python script. The American GOP will be the ironic hobgoblin of the Russian Patriarch, after decades of consolidating power as the “national security” party. The Party of Reagan will be the Party of Putin. We are already seeing Putin love among Republicans in polls. Republicans like Putin more than they like members of the Democratic Party. This will be achieved mainly because the core of that party consists of angry anti-intellectual anti-liberal anti-environment hippie punchers, and as long as hippies are being punched, and gays bashed, and people of color intimidated through regular state sponsored or allowed executions, they’re fine with this. America the Brave is now America the Spiteful Idiot. Monday, the Electors meet. Is it possible that every single one of the Trump Republican Electors is a blind Trump supporter? No. Many electors were actually elevated to that position earlier in the process, and were supporters of other Republican candidates. It it the case that every single Republican is a Putin Pushing no know-nothing? No, not all of them. Just a large majority of them. Among the Electors there must be some who are not. There must be some Republicans among the electors who understand that Russia is a nice country and all, and that we love the Russian people and all, but that the Putin government is not our friend. Today, Friday, the Obama administration will do what it should have done months ago, but elected not to for what seemed like good reasons at the time. The President will, essentially, give that CIA briefing that some people got on Friday, to the rest of the country, about Putin’s involvement in the US election. There will be people who become outraged, a lot of them. Some of them may be influential Republicans. A friend of mine pointed out the ideal scenario: One or more members of the presumed Trump cadre of Cabinet appointees walks off the job, forsakes the Trump administration, in outrage. Imagine Marine General James Mattis publicly noting that he has sworn an oath to protect the United States from all enemies domestic and foreign. Indeed, General Mattis has to do this. He is known to be a very smart guy, one of the more intellectual generals. At the same time, he is known to be fiercely patriotic. He must have figured this out by now. He must have figured out by now that he will be dumping his career of patriotic service to America right into the crapper if he serves in the Trump administration. I assume that he initially figured he should be in there doing what needs to be done with competence. But hopefully he will now, and maybe others proposed for the cabinet as well, realize that this day, this weekend, is the only opportunity to ask the electors to not vote for Trump, to do anything but vote for Trump, in order to stop a Russian takeover of the United States. Only about 10% of the electors have to do this. If Trump is not elected, and if the highly unlikely event of the electors simply electing Clinton does not happen, then the US House has a shot at deciding who will be President of the United States. They must choose among the top vote getting three names that the Electors consider. Thusly, the Electors can hand the US house a list of three people, including Clinton, Trump, and one other person, probably a Republicans, for them to chose among. If that third name is a reasonable individual (for a Republican) or, at least, an established Republican, then perhaps the House will have the bravery, and the love of freedom, to chose that person as the next president. Half this country is ready to go to the mat to keep Trump, and thus the Russians and who knows who or what else, in power. The other half of this country is willing to go to the mat to stop Trump from doing all that he has promised to do for months. The third half seems to have no interest in any of this. No matter what happens, there is going to be a fight. People in the middle and on the left are brave, and ready to take on whatever happens. People on the Right are Putin loving Russia-symps who just want to punch some hippies and piss in the lake. And now, we get to find out which of those themes best represents our country. Now, this weekend, Monday. Holy crap America, what have you done? 16 Dec
Trump Is Compiling Science Enemy Lists [Greg Laden's Blog] - The Donald Trump transition team circulated an eight page questionnaire to the US Department of Energy. Such questionnaires are not normal. This particular questionnaire is deeply disturbing. There are seventy-four questions. They provide insight into likely Trump administration energy policy, and there is not much of a surprise there. Most disturbing are the questions that elicit the sort of information one would gather at the outset of a purge or harassment campaign against a class of individuals, in this case, climate scientists and related personnel. Here I provide text of a handful of the questions, brief descriptions of others, and a link to a copy of the original document, which was originally “obtained” by Bloomberg. At the bottom of the post, I also provide a link to a letter from a leading member of Trump’s DOE transition team, possibly leaked (but maybe intentionally distributed, I’m not sure). (Please check out this interview with science policy and politics expert Shawn Otto about Trump and Science.) 11. Which Assistant Secretary positions are rooted in statute and which exist at the discretion and delegation of the Secretary? In other words, which senior people at DOE can we get rid of and which are we stuck with. Question 33 more or less asks the same question again, but slightly differently. 12. What is the statutory charge to the Department with respect to efficiency standards? Which products are subject to statutory requirements and which are discretionary to the department? In other words, can we roll back efficiency standards, because … because Exxon-Mobile wants to sell more oil? … because we want to increase the rate of climate change because we know the 1% will do better than anyone else? … because we want to punch some hippies? 13. Can you provide a list of all Department of Energy employees or contractors who have attended an Interagency Working Group of the Social Cost of Carbon meetings? Can you provide a list of when those meetings were and any materials distributed at those meetings, emails associated with those meetings, or materials created by Department employees or contractors i anticipation of or as a result of those meetings? In other words, we would like to compile a list of administrators and scientists who are working in the climate change area, assess their position on climate change, and and then begin a campaign of bullying, harassing, and general ruining the lives of, those individuals and their colleagues and families? 14. Did DOE or any of its contractors run the integrated assessment models (IAMs)? Did DOE pick the discount rates to be used with the IAMs? What was DOE’s opinion on the proper discount rates used with the IAMs? What was DOE’s opinion on the proper equilibrium climate sensitivity? What’s that all about? The IAMs are related to the more familiar to you (I’m guessing) RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways). Simply put, these are complicated models that try to take into account everything from energy policy and use to how changes in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere change climate. There are two main known unknowns here. First, is how much CO2 and other greenhouse gasses we put into the environment (but that is an oversimplification) and the other is climate sensitivity, which is how much will global surface temperatures rise with a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere (again, an oversimplification). Climate sensitivity is a dog whistle. If you are a science denier, you say “climate sensitivity is 1.2” but if you understand and accept the basic science, you say “Nobody knows for sure, but somewhere between 2.0 and 6.0, most likely very close to about 3.0 or 3.5.” 15. What is the Department’s role with respect to JCPOA? Which office has the lead for the Department? This is not related to climate change, but I thought I’d throw it in there anyway. The JCPOA is the Iran Deal. 16. What statutory authority has been given to the Department with respect to cybersecurity? Again, not related to climate change, but given the recent revelations that Russia has been effectively manipulating US elections, and it is hard to imagine how The Donald got elected President of the United States, and given Trump’s Russian associations, it makes sense that the Trump transition team would want to keep track of this sort of thing. Probably, he could just ask the Russians instead of the DOE, but, well, whatever. 17. Can you provide a list of all Schedule C appointees, all non-career SES employees, and all Presidential appointees requiring Senate confirmation? Can you include their current position and how long they have served in the Department? These seem like reasonable things to know, if you are taking over the government and are responsible for staffing. But keep in mind that a) no one has ever done a questionnaire like this before; b) there is a transition process that is normally used that presumably addresses these issues; and c) we are talking about links between a part of the government that handles energy and climate and the outside world. If you were trying to build a list of Climate Enemies, this is where you would start. We have to assume, for the purposes of safety and security from what looks like it is going to be a tyrannical government, that this is what Trump is doing. 18. Can you offer more information about the EV Everywhere Grand Challenge? The EV Everywhere Grand Challenge is “the umbrella effort of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to increase the adoption and use of plug-in electric vehicles…” 19. Can you provide a list of Department employees or contractors who attended any of the Conference of the Parties (under the UNFCCC) in the last five years? This, of course, is asking for a list of DOE employees and beyond who are involved in climate change research. The UNFCCC is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change. 30. Which programs with DOE are essential to meeting the goals of President Obama’s Climate Action Plan? The incoming Trump administration has indicated that it will reverse whatever it can among Obama’s accomplishments. We must assume that here, the incoming Trump administration is asking for a ready-made short list of things to eliminate in their apparent effort to move our civilization ever closer to apocalyptic doom. There are several questions about the DOE’s Energy Information Agency, which is where you go to find out about how much energy we use, of what kind, where it comes from and goes, etc. In other words, the EIA provides an important set of baselines from which one might analyze, track, plan, and generally work on an energy transition. These questions seem to indicate an interest in moving away from renewables, or more precisely, towards changing assessment of energy policy to make renewables look less viable and fossil fuels look more necessary for a longer period of time. This seems to also indicate, unsurprisingly, a pro-fracking stance. There are several vague questions about the DOE’s Environmental Management and the Handford nuclear waste site. There are several questions that indicate an intention to expand Nuclear power, re-open Yucca Mountain, and privatize research. There is a question that indicates that the incoming Trump administration intends to cut the DOE budget by 10% Finally, the last several questions ask about the DOE’s labs, focusing on the personnel. Who are they, what are they up to, what projects are they working on? That sort of thing. The entire questionnaire is here: [trump-transition-questionaire-to-dept-energy] as a PDF file. Please look through it and let me know what you think. There appear to be two different questionnaires. The other one is here: [document_gw_06]. I’ve not done a point by point comparison but they seem to be similar in overall content and meaning. Here is the link to the Trump DOE Transition Team mentioned above: [pyle-what-to-expect-from-the-trump-administration_letter] 12 Dec
My Review Of The White Rabbit Project [Greg Laden's Blog] - The White Rabbit Project is a Netflix project in which former MythBusters cast members Tory Belleci, Kari Byron, and Grant Imahara lead the viewer down various rabbit holes to explore a range of interesting and often strange things. Before going any further in this review, I need to tell you two things. First, since this is a MythBusters related thing, and Mythbuster fans hate everything (especially myths, of course), you will probably see a lot of iffy reviews of this project. (This isn’t just a MythBusters thing, it is a skeptics thing, a science-cheerleader thing, a geek thing. Just comes with the territory.) Kari Byron invites Tory Belleci to a quite dinner at the neighborhood Italian restaurant. BwahahahahaSecond, the White Rabbit Project is really good, you will enjoy it. There will be many “oh wow, I did not know that” moments even though you are smart, and there are a few spots where you can not legally watch the show while holding a hot drink because you will damage someone or something while ROTFLYAO. Since this show’s roots are planted firmly in MythBusters, it is fair, and even necessary, to make comparisons and references to the earlier show. In case you didn’t know, Imahara, Byron, and Belleci were forced to leave the Discovery Channel production for what I think were relatively dumb reasons, having to do with contracts, and “the way things work” and such. In MythBusters, for the last several seasons, stars Jamie Hyneman and Adam Savage would take on a primary “myth” — a thing people believed to be true but may or may not have been true — while the so-called “build team” of Byron, Belleci and Imahara would take on some other presumably secondary topic or set of topics, sometimes but not always related to the primary topic. Everybody had their specialties. Hyneman is a master builder and explosives expert. Savage an expert designer of things and experiments, and fearless of danger. Kari Byron is expert on firearms, explosives, and prop design. Tory Belleci is an expert on rigging, and falling off and onto things. Imahara is an expert on anything that resembles a robot or that uses Pulse Width Modulation. Over time, MythBusters spent less time busting classic and well known urban myths and more time on more obscure things such as how cars, people, guns, or other things are made to act in movies, or historical stories that really weren’t urban myths though they were interesting. In the new show, the White Rabbit Project (in which Savage and Hyneman are uninvolved), Imahara, Byron and Belleci do not follow a “myth busting” model. Rather, they pick a topic that could come from fiction, reality, mythic or not, such as the effects of extra gravity, navigation, jailbreaking, super hero abilities, or weaponry. Then, they come up (arbitrarily, I assume it is a design thing) with six exemplars, and explore them. The team makes no effort to address these six instantiations of the focal topic uniformly. Indeed, they do quite the opposite. Some of the specific “builds” (as it were) are treated in detail, others are glossed over. For instance, consider Episode 2 on jailbreaks. One of the jailbreaks involved a guy’s wife showing up for a visit, they swap clothes, and he tries to walk out of the prison in drag. This is done with actors (though they do show the real before and after mug shots) and there is no serious analysis and zero attempt to replicate the event. This one is jut for fun. A second jailbreak involved over 100 British officers escaping from a Nazi prisoner of war camp. For this escape, the team went into great detail as to how it was done, and took it very seriously, but did not replicate anything. A third case involved two families trapped in East Germany behind the Iron Curtin escaping via a home made hot air balloon. For this escape, Belleci actually builds a replica of the balloon and gets it off the ground, reveals problems with the technology, teaches how the technology works by demonstration and interviews with one of the original builders as well as a ballon expert, etc. So that historical escape got the whole nine yards. By not attempting to give even treatment to each instance, but covering several instances, the final effect is one of richness and thoroughness. We don’t need to see Grant Imahara in drag trying to see if he could get past prison guards (though I suppose that would be interesting …) but Tory’s balloon build was fascinating. One of the funniest things I’ve seen on television is Kari Byron’s absolutely fascinating and instructive sequence on mind control, in the Super Power Tech episode (Episode 1). This treatment comes in three segments of the show. I give a regular guest lecture in a human anatomy class at a nearby school. Imma show bits and pieces of Kari Byron’s segments to the students because I know it will cause some of them to focus their academic interest on medical devices (and we live in a medical device manufacturing neighborhood) or, perhaps, clown school. Either way is good. So, I guess I’m trying to make a point here. Did you ever watch a Mythbusters episode and realize that the format and design of a segment was hampered by the overarching theme of busting myths? If not, then you haven’t watched many episodes. I imagine that Byron, Belleci and Imahara and their off camera associates designed the White Rabbit Project the way they did because they thoughtfully deconstructed their experience at Mythbusters, looking at what was good and what was limiting. They could have sat down and tried to figure out how to be totally different from Mythbusters, because, after all, everything has to be different. Or, they could have sat down and figured out how to be better than Mythbusters, because, after all, everything has to be better. But I don’t think that is what they ultimately did. Instead, it seems like they sat down to figure out how they can be themselves, playing to their own strengths, while at the same time defining and avoiding some of the constraints that might have been working against them previously. And, I’m really glad that they’ve decided not to shy away from familiarity. In Episode 3, they did not have to go to a gun range and fire hundreds of bullets at targets to test one of the anti-German WW II weapon systems (the weapon was not a firearm). But they did, even if the firing range was perhaps the out of studio Mythbuster milieu used most. I regard Season 1 of White Rabbit Project to be a success, and I hope they do a Season 2. 11 Dec
Comments of the Week #139: From Escaping Gravitational Waves To The Universe’s 2016 Changes [Starts With A Bang] - “They always say time changes things, but you actually have to change them yourself.” -Andy Warhol Any week that passes by that leaves you knowing more than when you started is a good one here at Starts With A Bang! I hope this past week didn’t disappoint, as many of you became acquainted not only with our latest podcast on parallel Universes, but with some amazing new articles on science and the Universe. Even as the year winds down, there’s plenty more to explore! Here’s what the past week held: How do gravitational waves escape from a black hole? (for Ask Ethan), An X-ray surprise! When black holes stop eating, galaxies fade away (for Mostly Mute Monday), Has LIGO already discovered evidence for quantum gravity?, Mystery of ultra-fast solar flares solved by plasma physics, Top 10 gifts for lovers of outer space, and How the Universe changed in 2016. As always, articles go up on a one-week delay over on Medium ad-free, thanks to our Patreon supporters. And I’m almost done with a draft of my next book; so excited for October of next year when it debuts! With all that said, let’s dive right into our comments of the week! A rough map of all of the satellites humanity has currently in orbit around Earth. Image credit: Michael Najjar. From Craig Thomas on what you can find in the sky: “I saw a great satellite on Friday night – it was two satellites following in exactly the same track (on what looked like a polar orbit), and they were as close together as one side of the square bit in the middle of Orion.” You might be surprised to learn that co-orbiting satellites, where two satellites share the same mean orbit and almost the exact same path, are not only common for artificial satellites, but for natural ones as well! Saturn has two moons, Janus and Epimetheus, that not only share the same orbit, but swap positions every so often, with one overtaking the other and then the reverse happening. The orbits of Janus and Epimetheus arodn Saturn. Image credit: Wikimedia commons user Jrkenti. Thankfully, Earth-orbiting satellites are so low in mass that their mutual gravitational influence is negligible, and so what you’re seeing is merely a trick of perspective. Also, most satellites are orbiting incredibly quickly: at a mean speed of a little over 7 km/s. So even two satellites that look close together are going to be separated by large distances… if it takes just 3 seconds for one satellite to reach the point where the one it was chasing previously was, they’re separated by approximately 21 km (13 miles). And if their orbital periods differ by just 1%, that means after 24 hours, they’ll be separated by more like 6000 km (4000 miles). In other words, what you saw was most likely a very temporary configuration, but pretty to look at nonetheless! A brain science session at the 2014 AAAS meeting. Image credit: Nicky Penttila of the Dana Foundation. From Denier on right and wrong: “Right and wrong are often subjective and are absolutely up for debate. For the same reason you want to tell people their opinions don’t matter, it is not fair to expect the public to know exactly where politics stop and where science starts.” Do you really want to argue against what I said in context? Just as a reminder, that was: It is everyone’s job — scientists, the press, and ordinary citizens (and non-citizens) — to make the truth matter. Right and wrong shouldn’t always be up for debate. We don’t vote on the sky color, and voting on it doesn’t change it. Perhaps we have a right to be free from misinformation masquerading as truths, too. Yes, you can find instances where right and wrong are subjective and are ethical, moral, or other unprovable issues. But there are demonstrable facts out there where you can either be honest and truthful about what reality says — something that’s right — or you can distort it and lie and mislead and dissemble about it. When you say, As an expert if you want the truth to ‘win’, publish science in peer reviewed journals and do more science and publish that too. I retort that, quite clearly, that is not enough. That has been done. That has been tried. That does not seem to play a very large role in whether the truth wins. More must be done, and it should be done and advocated for by all of us. Scientific truths may not necessarily have a one-to-one correspondence with policy, but we should at least all be able to agree on what they are. Until we get there, until we can agree on basic facts, we’re going to have a very hard time moving forward together in this world. Any object or shape, physical or non-physical, would be distorted as gravitational waves passed through it. Note how no waves are ever emitted from inside the black hole’s event horizon. Image credit: NASA/Ames Research Center/C. Henze. From Omega Centauri on what else is visible from black hole mergers: “I have a question about other merger observables. If we were so lucky as to be able to observe a merger from close by (say a lightyear), with large telescopes, could we see anything other than gravitational waves? I’m assuming neither has an accretion disk, although that case might be interesting as well.” You may remember a scandal earlier this year where NASA’s Fermi team claimed a detection of electromagnetic signals from the LIGO merging black holes, where they knew how to do the analysis correctly and chose not to. But there ought to be an electromagnetic signal of some type depending on how much matter is around the black hole(s) and how they’re configured. The question is, what would we see? An artist’s impression of a gamma-ray burst illuminating its host galaxy. Image credit: Gemini Observatory / AURA / Lynette Cook. That’s something we’re only beginning to get an understanding of. Remember, until LIGO detected its first merging pair, we didn’t even know that black holes of these masses existed for certain. So electromagnetic properties of mergers are going to be the data that guides the theory/models, not the other way around! Cookie monster may be famous for eating cookies, but well over 90% of the cookie finds its way splattered out the sides of his mouth, much like the matter that falls onto black holes. Image credit: Revierfoto/dpa/picture-alliance/Newscom. From PJ on black hole eating: “Is the BH eating, or being spoon fed?” There is definitely no spoon. (Oh, Matrix reference!) No, what I mean by that is when you say “spoon-fed”, you think about a small amount of matter neatly being pulled into a black hole, entering the event horizon and disappearing. “Blip.” That’s it. The galaxy Centaurus A with its active, central black hole. Image credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/CfA/R.Kraft et al.; Submillimeter: MPIfR/ESO/APEX/A.Weiss et al.; Optical: ESO/WFI. But the overwhelming majority of the matter “eaten” by the black hole doesn’t go towards its growth, but rather gets accelerated and expelled, and that’s why the activity looks the way it does. But it’s kind of surprising that the turn-off and the dimming can be so fast. It doesn’t extend over the whole galaxy that fast, of course, but the overall flux can drop so quickly and that’s a new discovery. Not spoon fed; more like dumping a gallon into a shot glass. Image credit: Ned Wright’s Cosmology Tutorial, via http://www.astro.ucla.edu/~wright/cosmolog.htm. From t marvell: “Why isn’t our universe a black hole? Certainly at the time of the big-bang there was plenty of mass, in a small enough space, to create a black hole.” If the fabric of space weren’t expanding, it would have done so immediately. In fact, if the fabric of space were initially expanding by one part in 10^25 less than it did at the Big Bang, the Universe would have recollapsed into a black hole already. You have to look at the Universe as a race — between the expansion of space and the gravitational pull of all the mass inside — and the Big Bang is the starting gun. The expansion is winning, but just barely. Image Credit: SXS, the Simulating eXtreme Spacetimes (SXS) project (http://www.black-holes.org). From Denier on superseding Einstein: “If the echo signal were to be proved, would that mean Einstein’s Field Equation is wrong?” Although there were some good nuanced comments on wrong in science by both ketchup and Anonymous Coward, there are some additional points that need highlighting. Yes, we know that Einstein’s general relativity is incomplete. For example, imagine the double slit experiment. An electron passes through the double slit, and you don’t make a measurement, so it acts like a wave. You can calculate its wavefunction, its probability distribution and observe where it lands on the screen behind the slit. Passing photons through a double or single slit results in the following pattern; electrons make this pattern too, even when fired one-at-a-time and summed up. Image credit: Benjamin Crowell. But what happened to the electron’s gravitational field as it passed through that double slit? Einstein’s general relativity doesn’t tell you — can’t tell you — because general relativity is a “classical,” non-quantum theory. The closest we can get to quantum anything in gravity is to do the semiclassical approach, where we use the background GR spacetime as the curved “classical” space to do our quantum calculations for the other three forces. But this modification is different. This is a particular approach that doesn’t just venture where GR doesn’t; it’s an approach that says quantum gravitational effects get large around a black hole’s event horizon, not just at the central singularity. It’s a non-standard approach, with incredible consequences. If this particular approach to quantum gravity is borne out by further black hole merger data, it means that not only is Einstein wrong, but he was more wrong than the minimum “wrongness” level we expected. And that’s incredibly interesting, if true! The Celestron Firstscope (L) and fellow Forbes contributor Chad Orzel’s (then) seven-year-old daughter (R) using it. Images credit: Celestron, Chad Orzel. From PJ on Celestron Firstscope pricing: “Careful on the telescope pricing […] New (3) from $99.00 + $14.99 shipping” That is a shame that Amazon jacked up the price so fast. It should never be more than $50 (USD), because that’s what it sells for on the Celestron website. In fact, according to Camelcamelcamel, the price just shot up… like, right after I posted it. Image credit: screenshot from http://camelcamelcamel.com/Celestron-21024-FirstScope-Telescope/product/B001UQ6E4Y. Don’t go to Amazon if that’s what you’re going to get. The beauty of the firstscope is its ease-of-use and setup for young kids, not for its utility or quality for the discerning adult. I enjoy astronomy binoculars tremendously, and Wow gave some excellent advice on that front; if you’re an adult amateur skywatcher with no equipment, start out there instead! A neutrino event in the Super Kamiokande detector. Image credit: Kamioka Observatory, ICRR, The University of Tokyo. And finally, from Omega Centauri on nearby supernovae, “So if a SN did go off in our galaxy, even if behind thick dust, could we miss it? Clearly we wouldn’t see it in visible light, but IR, radio, X-ray, and even neutrinos might be capable of announcing its occurrence. So is there much of a chance we could still miss it?” I am getting a theme from you, Omega. Something about nearby catastrophes and your fascination with them… hopefully nothing too bad is going on over by you. But that aside, the answer is, “optically, yes; neutrino-wise, no way.” Image credit: ESA/Hubble, NASA, of supernova 1987a, a type II supernova remnant that arose from a dying star that underwent carbon fusion. The last supernova that went off nearby us — SN 1987a — occurred 168,000 light years away, in a satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. And we detected on the order of about a dozen neutrinos from it. Our galaxy is about 75,000 light years away from us at its farthest point, so less than half of that distance, and our detectors currently online are now about a thousand times more sensitive than they were 30 years ago. In fact, last year, IceCube detected neutrinos from outside our own galaxy for the first time! The galactic gas and dust could render a distant supernova so faint that we wouldn’t see it right away in all wavelengths, but the neutrino signal wouldn’t like. We’d see thousands coming from a single source at once, and then optical follow-ups would ensue immediately. The next supernova will either be detected by the naked eye or by neutrinos first. Regardless, it won’t go unseen for long! Thanks for a great week, everyone, and see you back here tomorrow for more fantastic stories of the Universe here on Starts With A Bang! 11 Dec
Comments of the Week #138: from the time dimension to going beyond the Standard Model [Starts With A Bang] - “A thing may be of deeper impossibility than another, in the sense that you can be more deeply underwater–but whether you are five feet or five fathoms from the surface you are still all wet.” -Brian McGreevy It’s been a spectacular week of investigating the Universe and our knowledge about it here at Starts With A Bang! There were a great many of you wondering about parallel Universes over the past month, and that’s exactly — in the context of quantum physics and cosmic inflation — what this past month’s Starts With A Bang podcast was on. Check it out! This past week also saw a fantastic set of new articles; here’s a look back at what we’ve covered: Why must time be a dimension? (for Ask Ethan), How the first false alien signal opened up a new world in astronomy (for Mostly Mute Monday), Cosmic rays may reveal new particles just out of LHC’s reach (a great contribution from Sabine Hossenfelder), Could dark matter be powering the EMdrive?, What to watch for when science becomes politicized, and LHC’s newest data: victory for the Standard Model, defeat for new physics. The video ads are gone from Forbes, but if you still prefer your Starts With A Bang ad-free, you can catch everything on a one-week delay over on Medium for free, thanks to our Patreon supporters. With all that said, let’s take a look at what you’ve had to say in our comments of the week! The geological features and scientific data observed and taken by New Horizons indicate a subsurface ocean beneath Pluto’s surface, encircling the entire planet. Illustration credit: James Keane. From MobiusKlein on Pluto’s subsurface ocean: “Regarding the 250K limit on H2O as a liquid – does that apply to impure water as well? Or do we suspect the impurities in icy dwarf planets to be slight enough to not matter?” It’s well-known that increasing the pressure on solid ice can transform it into liquid water, but there are limits to this. No matter how much pressure you apply, if your temperature is below about 250 K (about -23º C or about -10º F), it will only transition into different ice states, not into a liquid state. But the reason for this is that for pure water molecules, arrangement into a particular lattice is more energetically favorable at these pressures and temperatures. In fact, at high enough pressures, it’s always solid. Phase diagram of water as a log-lin chart with pressure from 1 Pa to 1 TPa and temperature from 0 K to 650 K. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons user cmglee. But this is only for pure H2O. Add in impurities of any variety — create a mixture or a solution — and lower-temperature liquids are possible. This is what happens on Mars, where the solid/liquid/vapor triple point is lowered in pressure space, enabling the existence of liquid brine where only solid or gaseous pure water is otherwise possible. Whether that ocean is briny or not has not yet been determined, but the evidence strongly suggests a liquid subsurface ocean on Pluto. This hasn’t been studied particularly well at high pressures, but low-pressure behavior indicates that the freezing point should be lowered at higher pressures, too. Quantitatively, I’m not sure by how much. Screenshot from my Forbes page from a few weeks ago, showing the source of my former incredulity. From Tristram on the location of Starts With A Bang: “Nay, a link to forbes, still.” Alas, ’tis true. But the autoplaying videos are gone, plus the newly released Chrome 55 allows you to block/disable autoplaying content not only through flash but through html5 as well. What a world we live in. Give it a try; it might not disappoint you. Variations in the fine-structure constant, from Webb et al. (2012). From Wes on a tongue-in-cheek interpretation of dimensions: “I still think we observe π dimensions.” The marginal evidence for variation in the fine-structure constant is still observed by looking at very distant absorption features. Although there are systematic and astrophysical explanations for the shift in the deuterium features, and hence inferred for that constant, it is also conceivable that some fundamental value is changing. Maybe it’s e, the electron charge; maybe it’s c, the speed of light, or maybe it’s h, Planck’s constant. Some people (jokingly) argue that it’s either 4 or π that change, but those are (thankfully) jokes. I am betting that this was, too, although I’ll point out that in sufficiently curved space, the ratio of a circle’s diameter to its circumference is no longer π at all! The fabric of spacetime, illustrated, with ripples and deformations due to mass. Image credit: European Gravitational Observatory, Lionel BRET/EUROLIOS. From Frank on relativity and time’s dimensionality: “Bending of space-time is well established fact in astronomy. Which I think is the biggest proof that time is a dimension, just like dimensions of space.” There’s actually a bigger proof from relativity: the Shapiro time-delay. One of the coolest things that relativity predicts is not simply that spatial paths get bent due to the curvature of space, but that the amount of time they take to traverse them — including climbing out of or falling into a gravitational well — is intricately affected by spacetime’s curvature. This is known, sometimes, as the “fourth classical test” of relativity, even though it was only performed after Einstein’s death. Many of his greatest theory’s greatest victories have continue to come nearly two full generations after the man himself has passed on. Neutron stars exhibit strong magnetic fields and rotate rapidly, accelerating matter to emit radio pulses. But this wasn’t always clear. Image credit: ESA/ATG Medialab. From Omega Centauri on spinning neutron stars: “Thinking about the orientation of the magnetic field, one would guess that based upon symmetry alone,that the favored orientation of the dipole field would be along the spin axis. Presumably if we were able to measure a large unbiased sample of NS, and measure the angle between the spin axis, and the magnetic pole we would get a distribution. I’m guessing it is fairly strongly peaked around zero degrees.” We can’t really measure anything other than the magnetic axis of the neutron star (as Michael alluded to), since it’s the magnetic field of the neutron star that causes particles to accelerate and hence, for the “pulsing” behavior to occur. What we see is that the magnetic axis spins around, and when the “beam” from the poles passes Earth, we see that pulse. But if all we had were the axis pointing at us, we’d see it all the time, like a mini-blazar. Instead, it pulses, and that tells us this is what’s going on: As you can see, the pulsar must be precessing, and therefore there must be a misalignment between the angular momentum and the magnetic dipole. This may be as simple as the misalignment between the Earth’s tides and the Moon’s orbit, or there could be more complex physics involved. Since we aren’t even 100% sure how the neutron star’s magnetic field arises at all, let’s not speculate too far! The experimental setup of the EMdrive. Image credit: H. White et al., “Measurement of Impulsive Thrust from a Closed Radio-Frequency Cavity in Vacuum”, AIAA 2016. From Michael Kelsey on a fun calculation of the axion/DM possibility: “It seems like this speculation hinges on quantitative questions: What is the local axion DM density? What is the axion-photon scattering cross-section (as opposed to photon-axion mixing)? What is the photon density in the EMDrive cavity? I can very roughly estimate the latter. The average density of dark matter is about 5 GeV/cm^3 (don’t you love mixing units!), based on the very approximate ISM density of 1 hydrogen atom per cm^3, and DM being five times normal matter. The axion mass is estimated at a fraction of an meV (“milli” not “mega”). So the number density in the EM drive (and everywhere else) is something times 10^12/cm^3. That’s surprisingly non-negligible, actually. If those were regular atoms, they would be at a pressure of microbars or less, which is typical of high vacuum systems, but not super extreme. The cross-section is more problematic. A 2014 paper (https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.4937) calculates cross-sections around 10^-29 cm^2 (10^-2 mb) for typical interactions, but enhanced up to 10^-17 cm^2 (10 Mb !!) in a resonant cavity. I don’t do axion physics, so I don’t have a really good sense for how realistic this might be, but let’s proceed… If the EM drive is the perfect magical cavity for axion-photon interaction, then we can combine the density and cross-section to say that photons would have a mean free path around 10^5 cm (1 km), so we might expect 1 in 1000 photons in a 1 m cavity to interact with an axion. The figure above says they put 100 W of power into the cavity. A conversion rate of 1e-3 would mean something like 0.1 W of “disappearing” power, which would be immediately noticeable, I think.” But this actually, lines up perfectly with what we need! What they observed was approximately one micronewton of thrust (Force) for every one Watt (energy) of input power. See for yourself: The raw data and the correlation with best-fit line from White et al.’s test. Image credit: H. White et al., “Measurement of Impulsive Thrust from a Closed Radio-Frequency Cavity in Vacuum”, AIAA 2016. Now, if we want to convert energy into momentum, the key is to kick back a massive thing; momentum is related to energy, and a change in momentum over time is what gives you a force. So if you can kick axions out — preferentially in one direction, which is conceivable with a strong, directional electromagnetic field inside — in the backwards direction, you can create thrust in the forwards direction. It’s a very, very speculative (but fun) possibility. Of course, by far the more likely explanation is that conventional physics holds, this isn’t dark matter, and rather this is a clever setup with no net force produced. More than three data points would be helpful, and reproducible results with much smaller measurement errors (look at that 60W point and how the individual measurements range by a factor of three in their results!) would be much more compelling. The global temperature anomaly for the year 2015, the hottest year on record until 2016 ends and breaks it. Image credit: NSA/GSFC/Scientific Visualization Studio. From Julian Frost on politicized science: “Two of the things you mentioned (AIDS and vaccines) have a place in my heart. As an autistic self advocate and blogger, the persistence of the lie about vaccines causing autism is both infuriating and frustrating. Andrew Wakefield, the struck off gastroenterologist who kicked things off has been exposed as having taken money from lawyers to investigate the link to see if lawsuits could be brought. In addition, even though he loaded the deck as hard as he could, the results didn’t fit the claim, so he cooked the subject’s data. Huge epidemiological studies have failed to find a link, yet there are still those who are convinced that vaccines cause autism. I’m a South African. Thabo Mbeki, our President from 1999-2008, when he was forced to resign, had views on AIDS that could politely be called eccentric, and accurately called absurd. His beliefs meant that ARV’s were denied to patients. One estimate puts the death toll from his actions at 365,000. It’s a shocking example of how ignoring the science for a belief in conspiracies leads to disaster.” There are people in my life who had AIDS in the 1990s… and many of them are either dead now or destitute and in poor but stable health. There is a common “logical fallacy” out there called appeal to authority, but most people misinterpret it and use it in an indefensible manner. They will point to a climate expert and say, “don’t take this person’s word for it; that’s an appeal to authority.” Or a series of dental health experts on fluoride, or the CDC on vaccines. Or an astrophysicist on astrophysics, or a particle physicist on particle physics. “Figure it out for yourself, like a good rugged individualist.” Shame on you for your twisting of what the “appeal to authority” fallacy was all about. It’s not about decrying looking to a qualified expert for an expert opinion. It’s why your surgeon knows better than you about your surgery; your car mechanic knows better than you about your car; your electrician knows better than you about how your home is wired; your friendly neighborhood astrophysicist knows more about astrophysics. But they also know more than your church, your legislator or congressperson, your president or your spouse or parent. Or even than “Age Of Autism,” “Erin Brockovich” or the “Fluoride Action Network.” A poster put up by the Fluoride Action Network, one of the most notoriously anti-science activist groups out there. Image credit: flickr user William Murphy. It’s because that logical fallacy is telling you don’t listen to an appeal to a false authority. A bona fide expert with expert training, expert knowledge and expert judgment isn’t hard to find, but you have to look. And you have to demand expertise. If you listen to the Food Babe or Mike Adams or Joe Mercola or Doctor Oz, you deserve it. If you let them make policy for your nation or your world and you don’t fight it, you deserve it. I’m not going anywhere, and I’m not going to be one of the silent ones who lets our world slip into ignorance. I cannot promise we’ll win this war, but we’re not going down without a fight. Image credit: Global Warming Art by Robert A. Rohde. From CFT on demonstrating this problem exactly: “Ethan, You are a coward. […] Want to prove me wrong? Prove you know their arguments, then be able to show why they are wrong, like any half assed science teacher worth their diploma would do.” This is not what I choose to blog about. Either learn the real science from real scientists and real experts, or draw your own false conclusions from your own false sources and false information. But I feel no compulsion to do your bidding. Dig your own grave if you like, but I refuse to be dragged into it. Ted Cruz, with a loaded statement from a questionable science news source, during a hearing on climate change on December 8, 2015. Image credit: SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images. From Eric Habegger on the same topic: “I have similar concerns as you. A lot of knowledge that used to be passed by authority figures from generation to generation has very recently been bypassed by the hive mind of the internet, and global instant communication. It has been very disruptive in a way that is both surprising and counterintuitive. A lot of it has to do with the anonymity of authors in messaging. In real life we can identify unreliable memes in culture just by the image and reputation of the speaker. Now that isn’t possible and the “feelings” of the individual reading it bypasses the logical responses because those individuals do not realize they are getting incomplete, or false information. Let’s face it, many people just do not have the critical thinking ability to weigh the probability of something being true or false in the presence of many diverging opinions coming at them AND not having the additional information on the character of the person saying those things that we used to have.” And many people don’t care what the facts are; they care about justifying the original position they staked out. They will tell whatever lies or untruths are necessary to justify the actions they want to execute. And they don’t care if they need to cherry pick or even fabricate facts to sell their overall conclusion; they have an agenda. It is everyone’s job — scientists, the press, and ordinary citizens (and non-citizens) — to make the truth matter. Right and wrong shouldn’t always be up for debate. We don’t vote on the sky color, and voting on it doesn’t change it. Perhaps we have a right to be free from misinformation masquerading as truths, too. Image credit: me, using a public domain image of Kelvin. From bert hubert on the ‘science is over’ quote from Kelvin: “While a great quote, it is not from Kelvin but from Albert A. Michelson. See https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/William_Thomson#Misattributed“ Perhaps it’s time to retire that misquote forever, since neither Kelvin nor Michelson ever intended it to be used with the meaning it’s often attributed. Thanks for the education. The CMS Collaboration has just released their latest, most comprehensive results ever. There is no indication of physics beyond the Standard Model in the results. Image credit: CERN/Maximlien Brice, of the CMS detector, the small detector at the LHC. From Anonymous Coward on the LHC’s failure to turn up anything new: “So we’ve reached the Desert. No new physics from 10^12 eV to 10^25 eV (the grand unification scale), and that’s a long, long way away. No way we’re bridging that gap even if we could build an accelerator that circles the planet.” It means that colliders aren’t the answer. It means the LHC won’t reveal new physics, and that particle creation, decays and branching ratios won’t shed the light we need them to at reachable energies. But there are always indirect methods to probe new physics. We will have to rely more heavily on those. Indeed, that’s what’s given us our beyond-the-standard-model hints: B and S-factories for CP-violation; neutrino measurements for masses and oscillations; cosmic ray experiments for beyond-collider energies. There is hope, but it doesn’t look like building a giant collider. Image credit: Ethan Shipulski, via http://mindblowingphysics.pbworks.com/w/page/52081285/Graviton%202012. And finally, from Eboy on our knowledge: “Until you solve the mystery of gravity particles or ?, you really have figured out anything.” Nonsense. Our theory of gravitation works just fine for every regime we’ve been able to test it in, and we have a long way to go before trans-GR physics shows up. The idea that “you don’t know everything and therefore you don’t know anything” is the perhaps worst solipsistic argument I’ve ever encountered. We have a long way to go and always will, but that doesn’t mean the Sun won’t rise in the east tomorrow. Have a great week ahead, everyone, and looking forward to all the science we’ll continue to share! 4 Dec
The Battle over Indus Waters - Brahma Chellaney, The Hindustan Times The linkages between water stress, sharing disputes and environmental degradation threaten to trap Asia in a vicious cycle. In a continent where China’s unilateralism stands out as a destabilizing factor, only four of the 57 transnational river basins have a treaty on water sharing or institutionalized cooperation. Indeed, the only Asian treaties incorporating specific sharing formulas are between India and its downriver neighbours, Pakistan and Bangladesh. When Pakistan was carved out of India as the first Islamic republic of the post-colonial era, the partition left the Indus headwaters in India, arming it with formidable water leverage over the newly-created country. Yet India ultimately agreed under World Bank and US pressure in 1960 to what still ranks as the world’s most generous (and lopsided) water-sharing pact. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) reserved for Pakistan the largest three rivers that make up more than four-fifths of the Indus-system waters, leaving for India just 19.48% of the total waters. After gifting the lion’s share of the waters to the congenitally hostile Pakistan, India also contributed $173.63 million for dam and other projects there. The Great Water Folly — one of the major strategic problems bequeathed to future Indian generations by the Nehruvian era — began exacting serious costs within a few years. Far from mollifying an implacable foe, the IWT whetted Pakistan’s territorial revisionism, prompting its 1965 military attack on India’s Jammu and Kashmir. The attack was aimed at gaining political control of the land through which the three largest rivers reserved for Pakistani use flowed, although only one of them originates in J&K. The 1965 attack was essentially a water war. India’s naïve assumption that it traded water munificence for peace in 1960 has backfired, saddling it with an iniquitous treaty of indefinite duration and keeping water as a core issue in its relations with Pakistan. As for Pakistan, after failing to achieve its water designs militarily in 1965, it has continued to wage a water war against India by other means, including diplomacy and terrorism. Put simply, 56 years after the IWT was signed, Pakistan’s covetous, water-driven claim to India’s J&K remains intact. Pakistan has cleverly employed the IWT to have its cake and eat it too. While receiving the largest quantum of waters reserved by any treaty for a downstream state, it uses the IWT to sustain its conflict and tensions with India. Worse still, this scofflaw nation repays the upper riparian’s unparalleled water largesse with blood by waging an undeclared, terrorism-centred war, with the Nagrota attack the latest example. Thanks to a partisan World Bank, Pakistan has recently succeeded — for the second time in this decade — in initiating international arbitral proceedings against India. Seeking international intercession is part of Pakistan’s ‘water war’ strategy against India, yet it is the World Bank’s ugly role in the latest instance that sticks out. This should surprise few. After all, it was the World Bank’s murky role that spawned the inherently unequal IWT. Whereas the British colonial government was the instrument in India’s 1947 land partition, the Bank served as the agent to partition the Indus-system rivers, floating the river-partitioning proposal and ramming it down India’s throat. India’s full sovereignty rights were limited to the smallest three of the six rivers, with the Bank uniquely signing a binational treaty as its guarantor. Since then, World Bank support enabled Pakistan not only to complete mega-dams but also to sustain its ‘water war’ strategy against India by invoking international intercession repeatedly. Now, in response to Pakistan’s complaint over two midsized Indian hydropower projects, the World Bank has initiated two concurrent processes that mock the IWT’s provisions for resolving any ‘questions’, ‘differences’ or ‘disputes’ between the parties: It is appointing both a court of arbitration (as sought by Pakistan) and a neutral expert (as suggested by India), while admitting that “pursuing two concurrent processes under the treaty could make it unworkable over time”. India says it “cannot be party to actions” by the World Bank that breach the IWT’s terms, implying that it might not accept the arbitral tribunal. India’s bark, however, has always been worse than its bite. While protesting the Bank’s “legally untenable” move in the latest case, India has shown little inclination to respond through punitive counter-measures. Had China been in India’s place, it would have sought to discipline the Bank and Pakistan. Indeed, it is unthinkable that China would have countenanced such an egregiously inequitable treaty. While mouthing empty rhetoric, India still allows Pakistan to draw the IWT’s full benefits even as Pakistan bleeds it by exporting terrorists. The truth is this: The IWT symbolizes India’s enduring strategic naiveté and negligence. Despite water shortages triggering bitter feuds between Punjab and some other states, India has failed to tap even the allocated 19.48% share of the Indus Basin resources. For example, the waters of the three India-earmarked rivers not utilized by India aggregate to 10.37 billion cubic metres (BCM) yearly according to Pakistan, and 11.1 BCM according to the UN. These bonus outflows to Pakistan alone amount to six times Mexico’s total water share under its treaty with the US, and are many times greater than the total volumes spelled out in the Israel-Jordan water arrangements. Although the IWT permits India to store 4.4 BCM of waters from the Pakistan-reserved rivers, a careless India has built no storage. And despite the treaty allowing India to build hydropower plants with no dam reservoir, its total installed generating capacity in J&K currently does not equal the size of a single new dam in Pakistan like the 4,500-megawatt Diamer-Bhasha, whose financing for construction was approved last week. Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and author. © The Hindustan Times, 2016.12 Dec
A Water War in Asia? - BRAHMA CHELLANEY A column internationally syndicated by Project Syndicate. Tensions over water are rising in Asia — and not only because of conflicting maritime claims. While territorial disputes, such as in the South China Sea, attract the most attention — after all, they threaten the safety of sea lanes and freedom of navigation, which affects outside powers as well — the strategic ramifications of competition over transnationally shared freshwater resources are just as ominous. Asia has less fresh water per capita than any other continent, and it is already facing a water crisis that, according to an MIT study, will continue to intensify, with severe water shortages expected by 2050. At a time of widespread geopolitical discord, competition over freshwater resources could emerge as a serious threat to long-term peace and stability in Asia. Already, the battle is underway, with China as the main aggressor. Indeed, China’s territorial grab in the South China Sea has been accompanied by a quieter grab of resources in transnational river basins. Reengineering cross-border riparian flows is integral to China’s strategy to assert greater control and influence over Asia. China is certainly in a strong position to carry out this strategy. The country enjoys unmatched riparian dominance, with 110 transnational rivers and lakes flowing into 18 downstream countries. China also has the world’s most dams, which it has never hesitated to use to curb cross-border flows. In fact, China’s dam builders are targeting most of the international rivers that flow out of Chinese territory. Most of China’s internationally shared water resources are located on the Tibetan Plateau, which it annexed in the early 1950s. Unsurprisingly, the plateau is the new hub of Chinese dam building. Indeed, China’s 13th five-year plan, released this year, calls for a new wave of dam projects on the Plateau. Moreover, China recently cut off the flow of a tributary of the Brahmaputra River, the lifeline of Bangladesh and northern India, to build a dam as part of a major hydroelectric project in Tibet. And the country is working to dam another Brahmaputra tributary, in order to create a series of artificial lakes. China has also built six mega-dams on the Mekong River, which flows into Southeast Asia, where the downstream impact is already visible. Yet, instead of curbing its dam-building, China is hard at work building several more Mekong dams. Likewise, water supplies in largely arid Central Asia are coming under further pressure as China appropriates a growing volume of water from the Illy River. Kazakhstan’s Lake Balkhash is now at risk of shrinking substantially, much like the Aral Sea — located on the border with Uzbekistan — which has virtually dried up in less than 40 years. China is also diverting water from the Irtysh, which supplies drinking water to Kazakhstan’s capital Astana and feeds Russia’s Ob River. For Central Asia, the diminished transboundary flows are just one part of the problem. China’s energy, manufacturing, and agricultural activities in sprawling Xinjiang are having an even greater impact, as they contaminate the waters of the region’s transnational rivers with hazardous chemicals and fertilizers, just as China has done to the rivers in its Han heartland. Of course, China is not the only country stoking conflict over water. As if to underscore that the festering territorial dispute in Kashmir is as much about water as it is about land, Pakistan has, for the second time this decade, initiated international arbitral tribunal proceedings against India under the terms of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. The paradox here is that downstream Pakistan has used that treaty — the world’s most generous water-sharing deal, reserving for Pakistan more than 80% of the waters of the six-river Indus system — to sustain its conflict with India. Meanwhile, landlocked Laos — aiming to export hydropower, especially to China, the mainstay of its economy — has just notified its neighbors of its decision to move ahead with a third controversial project, the 912-megawatt Pak Beng dam. It previously brushed aside regional concerns about the alteration of natural-flow patterns to push ahead with the Xayaburi and Don Sahong dam projects. There is no reason to expect a different outcome this time. The consequences of growing water competition in Asia will reverberate beyond the region. Already, some Asian states, concerned about their capacity to grow enough food, have leased large tracts of farmland in Sub-Saharan Africa, triggering a backlash in some areas. In 2009, when South Korea’s Daewoo Logistics Corporation negotiated a deal to lease as much as half of Madagascar’s arable land to produce cereals and palm oil for the South Korean market, the ensuing protests and military intervention toppled a democratically elected president. The race to appropriate water resources in Asia is straining agriculture and fisheries, damaging ecosystems, and fostering dangerous distrust and discord across the region. It must be brought to an end. Asian countries need to clarify the region’s increasingly murky hydropolitics. The key will be effective dispute-resolution mechanisms and agreement on more transparent water-sharing arrangements. Asia can build a harmonious, rules-based water management system. But it needs China to get on board. At least for now, that does not seem likely. Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including Asian Juggernaut, Water: Asia’s New Battleground, and Water, Peace, and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis. © 1995-2016 Project Syndicate.27 Nov
BRICS falls under China’s sway - There’s a real risk that BRICS could unravel under the weight of the BRICS wall of China that Beijing is busy erecting BY BRAHMA CHELLANEY, The Japan Times Adding concrete content to a catchy acronym has become a pressing challenge for BRICS, which brings Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa together. BRICS presents itself meretriciously as a powerful grouping. After all, its member-states together represent more than a quarter of the Earth’s landmass, 42 percent of the global population, almost 25 percent of the world’s gross domestic product, and nearly half of the global foreign exchange and gold reserves. However, as the October BRICS summit in Goa highlighted, there is little in common among its member-states. Although these five emerging economies pride themselves on forming the first important non-Western global initiative, the grouping is still searching to define a common identity and build institutionalized cooperation. Six years after it expanded from a four-member BRIC to the five-nation BRICS by adding South Africa, it has yet to unveil a common action plan to help bring about fundamental changes in the architecture of global finance and governance or to accelerate the decline of the era of Atlantic dominance. BRICS lacks the shared political and economic values that bind together the Group of Seven members, who are also tied by security arrangements with the United States. In BRICS, differences outweigh commonalities. As the Goa summit highlighted, China, which is milking BRICS for tangible benefits, represents the biggest challenge to the grouping’s future. Just as China dominates the other new institutions of which it is a founding member — from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) — it is using BRICS to assertively push its own interests. China also dominates the first tangible challenge to the Bretton Woods system, as symbolized by the BRICS-created New Development Bank (NDB) and China’s own initiative, the AIIB. BRICS has fashioned two instruments — the New Development Bank, which has been given $50 billion in initial capital, and the $100-billion Contingent Reserve Arrangement, or CRA, meant to provide additional liquidity protection to member countries during balance-of-payments problems. Both these instruments have come under China’s sway. For example, China outmaneuvered India to host the NDB at Shanghai, offering New Delhi a consolation prize — an Indian as the bank’s first president. The CRA — unlike the pool of initial capital to the BRICS bank, with each of the five signatories contributing $10 billion — is being funded 41 percent by China, 18 percent from Brazil, India, and Russia, and 5 percent from South Africa. Today, China is in the happy situation of overseeing the NDB and the AIIB, not to mention the CRA. Leading two new multilateral banks fits well with Beijing’s strategy to create an “economic hub-and-spoke system” via energy pipelines, strategic highways and ports, and railroad networks. In this scheme, China, as the hub, seeks to draw in raw materials and other natural resources from the spokes, while exporting industrial and consumer goods to them. China’s “economic hub-and-spoke system” is to parallel America’s military hub-and-spoke system. But it is an “economic hub-and-spoke system” with a strategic mission. China’s infrastructure development in other states is driven, as during the European colonial era, by a specific interest — to advance its own interests while saddling local communities and governments with heavy debt and human and environmental costs. Against this background, it is not a surprise that China is a revisionist power with respect to the global financial architecture, but a status quo power in regard to the United Nations system. In other words, China supports international institutional reforms that give it a greater say but blocks measures that will dilute its existing status. So it is an obstacle to restructuring and democratizing the Security Council. It wants to remain Asia’s sole permanent member of the Security Council. And as underscored by its 2016 presidency of the Group of 20, China values the G-20 as a vehicle to enlarge its role in global economic governance while seeking to retain those elements of the present trade and financial architecture that have facilitated its dramatic economic rise. Meanwhile, it is using BRICS to expand the international role of its currency as part of its quest to build the yuan as a global currency that could one day rival the dollar or euro. So it is lending and trading in yuan with the other BRICS members. China’s hidden export subsidies, for their part, are steadily undermining manufacturing in the other BRICS states, even as its adept use of tariff and non-tariff barriers shuts out, from its own market, goods and services in which they have a comparative advantage. For example, China’s trade surplus with India has doubled since 2014 alone to nearly $60 billion, threatening India’s domestic manufacturing base. An article last month in China’s state-run Global Times mockingly said: “Let the Indian authorities bark about the growing trade deficit with China. The fact of the matter is they cannot do anything about it.” At the Goa summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping flexed his muscles to keep the South China Sea issue out of the Goa Declaration and to shield Pakistan from its sponsorship of terrorism, with the declaration citing U.N.-designated terrorist groups in the Middle East but not the ones based in Pakistan. China’s “core leader” in Goa called for “political solutions” to “regional hotspots” even as his government adds fuel to regional fires through a relentless territorial creep in the South China Sea and by embarking on a $46 billion corridor to the Indian Ocean through Pakistan-held Jammu and Kashmir, a U.N.-recognized disputed region. How can BRICS create rules-based cooperation among its members if international norms of conduct are flouted in such a manner? The Goa summit indeed was a reminder of China’s lengthening shadow over BRICS. As China uses the grouping to push its own agenda, BRICS has been left carrying the can. The risk is real that the grouping could collapse under the weight of the BRICS wall of China that is being erected. Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and author and a long-standing contributor to The Japan Times. © The Japan Times, 2016. 25 Nov
Trump could ‘pivot’ to Asia like Obama never did - Trump may well launch his own ‘Asian pivot’ in the vacuum of Obama’s lackluster effort. Brahma Chellaney, Nikkei Asian Review, November 21, 2016 U.S. President Barack Obama’s strategic “pivot” toward Asia, unveiled in 2012, attracted much international attention but did little to tame China’s muscular approach to territorial, maritime and trade disputes. Indeed, with the United States focused on the Islamic world, Obama’s much-touted Asian pivot seemed to lose its way somewhere in the arc between Iraq and Libya. Will President-elect Donald Trump’s approach to Asia be different? In his first meeting with a foreign leader since his surprise Nov. 8 election triumph, Trump delivered a reassuring message to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who, in turn, described him as a “trustworthy leader.” In a smart diplomatic move, Abe made a special stop in New York on Nov. 17, en route to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru, to meet face-to-face with Trump, who shares his conservative, nationalistic outlook. Today, Asia faces the specter of power disequilibrium. Concern that Trump could undo Obama’s pivot to Asia by exhibiting an isolationist streak ignores the fact that the pivot has remained more rhetorical than real. Even as Obama prepares to leave office, the pivot — rebranded as “rebalancing” — has not acquired any concrete strategic content. If anything, the coining of a catchy term, “pivot,” has helped obscure the key challenge confronting the U.S.: To remain the principal security anchor in Asia in the face of a relentless push by a revisionist China to expand its frontiers and sphere of influence. Trump indeed could face an early test of will from a China determined to pursue its “salami slicing” approach to gaining regional dominance. In contrast to Russia’s preference for full-fledged invasion, China has perfected the art of creeping, covert warfare through which it seeks to take one “slice” of territory at a time, by force. With Obama having increasingly ceded ground to China in Asia during his tenure, Beijing feels emboldened, as evident in its incremental expansionism in the South China Sea and its dual Silk Road projects under the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. The Maritime Silk Road is just a new name for Beijing’s “string of pearls” strategy, aimed at increasing its influence in the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, without incurring any international costs, China aggressively continues to push its borders far out into international waters in a way that no other power has done. Indeed, boosting naval prowess and projecting power far from its shores are at the center of China’s ambition to fashion a strongly Sino-centric Asia. Boasting one of the world’s fastest-growing undersea fleets, China announced earlier in November that its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, is ready for combat. Such revanchist moves will inevitably test the new U.S. administration’s limits. Tougher approach In this light, it is difficult to see how Trump can afford to cut back on U.S. military deployments and assets in the Asia-Pacific region. What seems more likely is that Trump will live up to his election campaign promise to invest greater resources in the military. By relaxing some of the Obama-era constraints, Trump, in keeping with his “tough guy” image, could permit the U.S. navy and air force to initiate more aggressive reconnaissance and freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea. He could also invite China’s wrath by getting Japan to join U.S. air and sea patrols in the disputed waters. Trump is also expected to be more assertive diplomatically than Obama, who refused to speak up even when China occupied the Scarborough Shoal, located well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. The 2012 takeover occurred despite a U.S.-brokered deal under which both Beijing and Manila agreed to withdraw their vessels from the area. Yet the U.S. did nothing in response to China’s move, despite its mutual-defense treaty with the Philippines. That inaction helped spur China’s frenzied creation of artificial islands in the South China Sea. In late 2013, when China unilaterally declared an air defense identification zone covering territories it claims but does not control in the East China Sea, Obama again hesitated. Indeed, Washington, far from postponing Vice President Joe Biden’s trip to Beijing to express disapproval of the Chinese action, advised U.S. commercial airlines to respect the ADIZ — an action that ran counter to Japan’s advice to its carriers to ignore China’s demand for advance notice of flight plans through the zone. In effect, the U.S. condoned China’s move to establish the ADIZ. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s much-criticized action to cut his own deal with China, involving billions of dollars in Chinese investment pledges, should be seen in this context. The deal, however, is likely to hold only until the next major Chinese incursion. The paradox here is that Beijing’s rising assertiveness helped the U.S. return to Asia’s center-stage — yet, even as China became more aggressive with its neighbors, the Obama administration dithered over how to rein in such expansionism or reassure America’s jittery Asian allies. In fact, the more assertive China has become in pressing its territorial and maritime claims, from the East China Sea to the Himalayas, the more reluctant the Obama administration has been to take sides in Asia’s territorial disputes — although they center on Beijing’s efforts to change the status quo with America’s strategic allies or partners. No less significant is Obama’s failure to provide strategic heft to his Asia pivot. By studiously avoiding disputes with China while working to balance America’s relationships with key Asian states, his administration shied away from tough strategic choices. Indeed, no sooner had the pivot policy been unveiled than a course correction was effected, with the administration tamping down the pivot’s military aspects and laying emphasis instead on greater U.S. economic engagement with Asia. Even the modest measure to permanently rotate up to 2,500 U.S. marines through Darwin, Australia, is yet to be fully implemented. To countries bearing the brunt of China’s recidivist policies, this lack of clarity has not only raised doubts about the U.S. commitment, but also left them effectively at the mercy of a regional predator. That, in turn, has forced several of them to tread with excessive caution around Chinese concerns and interests. Shoring up alliances Far from retreating from Asia, the U.S. under Trump is likely to bolster alliances and partnerships with states around China’s periphery. His administration may even support constitutional and national security reforms in Japan, on the assumption that a Japan that does more for its own defense will help to forestall the emergence of a destabilizing power imbalance in East Asia. Such support will also fit well with Trump’s top priority to halt the erosion of America’s relative power through comprehensive domestic renewal, including reining in the mounting U.S. budget deficit. Trump’s election, however, has dimmed prospects for full implementation of the 12-nation, Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. The TPP, which excludes not only China but also America’s close friends like India and South Korea, has been presented by Obama as the most important component of his unhinged pivot to Asia. In truth, the TPP is hardly a transformative initiative: With half its members already boasting bilateral free trade agreements with Washington, the TPP’s main effect would have been to create a free trade agreement between Japan and the U.S., which together account for about 80% of the gross domestic product of TPP signatories. Trade is one area where Trump must deliver on his campaign promises or risk losing his credibility with the blue-collar constituency that helped propel him to victory. His administration not only will seek to renegotiate parts of the TPP — to the discomfit of Abe, who has made the trade deal a pillar of his economic reforms — but also is unlikely to give China a free pass on its trade manipulation. For this and many other reasons, U.S.-China ties could be in for a rough patch. At a time when the very future of the Asian order looks uncertain, Trump could pivot to Asia in a way Obama did not. But today, no single power, not even the U.S., can shape developments on its own in Asia, including ensuring a rules-based order. His administration will have to work closely with likeminded states — from Japan and Australia to India and Vietnam — to build a stable balance of power in Asia. Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and the author of nine books, including “Water, Peace, and War” (Rowman & Littlefield). © Nikkei Asian Review, 2016.20 Nov
China’s sole ally in Asia might get more than it wished for - BY BRAHMA CHELLANEY, The Japan Times, November 8, 2016 When China joined hands with the United States earlier this year at the United Nations Security Council to approve the toughest new international sanctions in two decades against North Korea, it implicitly highlighted that Beijing now is left with just one real ally in Asia — Pakistan. Indeed, China has forged with Pakistan one of the closest and most-enduring relationships in international diplomacy. Mao Zedong famously said China and North Korea were as close as lips are to teeth. Similarly, Beijing now compares its strategic nexus with Pakistan to the closeness between lips and teeth, calling that country its “irreplaceable all-weather friend” and boasting of an “iron brotherhood” with it. In reality, this is largely a one-sided relationship that is turning Pakistan into China’s client and guinea pig. For example, Beijing has sold Pakistan outdated or untested nuclear power reactors and prototype weapon systems not deployed by the Chinese military. The two AC-1000 reactors currently under construction near the southern Pakistani port city of Karachi represent a model China has adapted from French designs but not built at home. According to a recent Pentagon report, Pakistan is not just “China’s primary customer for conventional weapons,” but also is likely to host a Chinese naval hub geared toward power projection in the Indian Ocean region. It is well documented that China helped build Pakistan’s arsenal of nuclear weapons, with covert Chinese nuclear and missile assistance still persisting. Pakistan is the linchpin of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s dual Silk Road projects, officially known as “One Belt, One Road.” By launching work on a $46 billion “economic corridor” stretching from Xinjiang to Pakistan’s Chinese-built and-run Gwadar port, Xi has made that country the central link between the twin Silk Road initiatives, which aim to employ geoeconomic tools to create a “Sinosphere” of trade, communications, transportation and security links. The corridor will link up Beijing’s maritime and overland Silk Roads, thereby shortening China’s route to the Middle East by 12,000 km and giving it access to the Indian Ocean, where it would be able to challenge India in its own maritime backyard. Not surprisingly, Xi has gone out of his way to shield Pakistan, including from accusations that its intelligence service was behind recent grisly terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India. For example, Xi ensured that the final communique issued at the end of the Oct. 14-15 summit of the five BRICS countries — Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa — omitted any reference to state sponsorship of terror or to any Pakistan-based terrorist group, even as it mentioned organizations like the Islamic State and al-Nusra. A more potent reminder of such support was China’s action last month in blocking proposed U.N. sanctions on a Pakistan-based terrorist leader Masood Azhar, who heads Jaish-e-Mohammed, a covert front organization for Pakistani intelligence service. It was the sixth time since September 2014 that China singlehandedly thwarted sanctions against Azhar, despite support for the move by all other members of the Security Council’s Resolution 1267 committee, including the United States, Britain and France. Resolution 1267 mandates U.N. sanctions on the Islamic State, al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities. The Security Council proscribed Jaish-e-Mohammed way back in 2001, yet the group operates openly from its base in Pakistan’s largest province of Punjab. The need for U.N. sanctions against the group’s chief has been underscored by evidence linking him and his group to two terrorist attacks this year on Indian military bases that killed 27 soldiers. Despite repeatedly vetoing U.N. action against Azhar, China seems unconcerned that it could be seen as complicit in the killing of the Indian soldiers. Previously, China also blocked U.N. action against some other Pakistan-based terrorist entities or individuals. For example, it came in the way of the U.N. proscribing United Jihad Council chief Syed Salahuddin and probing how U.N.-designated terrorist Hafiz Saeed is still able to raise funds and organize large public rallies in major Pakistani cities. With China’s help, Pakistan escaped U.N. censure for freeing on bail Zaki-ur Rehman Lakhvi, the mastermind of the 2008 Mumbai terrorist strikes. In fact, with China boosting its strategic investments in Pakistan, Beijing is stepping up its diplomatic, economic and military support to that country. In the process, it is seeking to cement Pakistan’s status as its client. For example, China has already secured exclusive rights for the next 40 years to run Gwadar, which could become a hub for Chinese naval operations in the Indian Ocean. The Shanghai Stock Exchange, for its part, is poised to take a 40 percent stake in Pakistan’s bourse. Some analysts like the American author Gordon G. Chang believe that the tide of new Chinese strategic projects, including in divided and disputed Kashmir, is turning Pakistan into China’s “newest colony.” Indeed, Beijing has persuaded internally torn Pakistan to set up special security forces, including a new 13,000-strong army division, to protect the Chinese projects. Still, the growing security costs of the “economic corridor” to the Indian Ocean prompted a Chinese state paper in September to warn that China “be prepared for potential setbacks,” adding that “it would be unwise to put all its eggs in one basket.” The fact is that the corridor will cement Pakistan’s status as Beijing’s economic and security client. By tightening China’s grip over the country, it will preclude Pakistan from possibly emulating the example of Myanmar or North Korea to escape Beijing’s clutches. Indeed, several years before China unveiled its plan to build the corridor, it started stationing its own troops in the Pakistan-held part of Kashmir, ostensibly to shield its ongoing highway, dam and other projects in the mountainous region. The implications of China’s growing strategic penetration of Pakistan are ominous for the region and for Pakistan’s own future. Concern is increasing in Pakistan that, thanks to the Chinese projects, the country is slipping into a massive debt trap that could compromise its sovereignty and future. Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and a fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including “Asian Juggernaut,” “Water: Asia’s New Battleground,” and “Water, Peace, and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis.” He is a long-standing contributor to The Japan Times. © The Japan Times, 2016. 7 Nov
Aung San Suu Kyi’s diplomatic balancing act - Sustaining “neutrality” in foreign policy will likely prove a challenge for Myanmar’s de facto leader Brahma Chellaney, Nikkei Asian Review In keeping with the untrammeled power she enjoys in her ruling National League for Democracy party, Myanmar’s de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi is rapidly putting her imprint on her country’s international relations. She has shaken up Myanmar’s diffident foreign policy establishment by proactively seeking to build partnerships with multiple powers. But rather than pronouncing a “Suu Kyi doctrine” in foreign policy, she is allowing her actions to define her approach. Suu Kyi’s approach is unmistakable — a nondoctrinaire vision with pragmatism as the hallmark, that aims to build equilibrium in relations with major powers and underscore Myanmar’s potential role as a bridge between different regions, cultures and powers. Myanmar’s geographic and geostrategic position makes it the natural bridge between South and Southeast Asia and between the demographic titans, China and India. Myanmar is as large as Britain and France combined. Yet by coming under severe U.S.-led sanctions, Myanmar was strikingly left out of Asia’s economic boom of the past generation. Since 2011, its democratic transition — cemented by NLD’s landslide election victory nearly a year ago — has reversed its fortunes, with a number of countries jockeying to exploit the economic opportunities it offers. Suu Kyi seems to believe that, through a dynamic foreign policy, she not only can advance Myanmar’s economic and security interests but also play the role of a facilitator between rival powers, including between China and Japan. Myanmar’s economic and political vulnerability, however, crimps Suu Kyi’s ambitious diplomacy, forcing her to perform a delicate balancing act between major powers vying for influence. Take China, with which Myanmar shares a 2,129km border: As if to signal that her country’s pro-China tilt and dependence on Beijing was an aberration fostered by crippling U.S.-led sanctions for nearly a quarter century, Suu Kyi committed, soon after coming to power, to revive the country’s tradition of pursuing a neutral foreign policy. Yet, her first visit to a major capital was to Beijing in August. The plain fact is that even though China impeded the Suu Kyi-led democracy movement by siding with Myanmar’s military rulers, its aggressive pursuit of strategic and resource interests has left it with considerable clout in the country. It accounts for about half of Myanmar’s foreign investment and 40% of its trade, with new multibillion-dollar oil and gas pipelines leading from Myanmar’s western coast to southern China. Pecking order Four weeks after her China trip, Suu Kyi visited the U.S., leading her country’s delegation to the United Nations General Assembly in New York and then meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House. The White House meeting led to Obama’s Oct. 7 executive order lifting U.S. economic sanctions on Myanmar. Now, after a recent tour of the world’s largest democracy — next-door India — Suu Kyi is set to visit Asia’s oldest, and richest, democracy, Japan, from Nov. 1. That Suu Kyi prioritized visits to Beijing and Washington over trips to New Delhi where she was educated, and Tokyo, Myanmar’s largest provider of debt relief, showed that she regards India and Japan as of lesser importance to her country’s interests than China and the U.S. Yet the fact is that Japan and India, with traditionally close ties to Myanmar, have played key roles in helping to end the country’s pariah status and reintegrating it regionally. Myanmar indeed was a province of India until 1937 in the British Indian empire before it become a separate colony, only to be occupied during 1941-45 by Japan, which established the country’s first postcolonial state and army. After Myanmar gained independence from Britain in early 1948, Japan played a major role in Myanmar’s economic development by allocating war reparations and official development assistance. Suu Kyi’s Oct. 16-19 India tour was part of New Delhi’s invitation to member states of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation for a joint summit in the beach resort of Goa with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, collectively known as BRICS. The Bay of Bengal Initiative, which brings together Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand, is seen as a better alternative than the China-proposed Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar corridor because it is more inclusive and seeks to reintegrate the region along its historical axis. Even before her party formed a new government on Mar. 31, Suu Kyi appealed for more aid from Japan, which, since the start of Myanmar’s democratic transition, has dramatically increased its official development assistance, besides forgiving large amounts of debt and investing in ambitious projects. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government responded to Suu Kyi’s appeal through additional loans and grant assistance. A huge debt write-off by Japan, totaling $9 billion, has helped Myanmar to clear its arrears to the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, opening the path for aid donors to support the country’s reform process. By setting up the giant Thilawa special economic zone, southeast of Yangon, the largest city, Japan has made major investments to establish Myanmar as a regional manufacturing hub. It has also invested in infrastructure and urban-development projects, including in Yangon’s water, sewage and electricity facilities. However, the sluggish pace of reforms in Myanmar, including liberalizing land rights, tightening fiscal management and opening the financial sector, has impeded the Abe government’s larger strategy to reduce the Mekong region’s dependence on China by strengthening intraregional trade links. Suu Kyi’s five-day Japan visit offers her an opportunity to allay Japanese concerns over Myanmar’s reform process and her own “neutral” foreign policy. China, however, represents the biggest test of Suu Kyi’s diplomacy. How long will she be able to walk the tightrope on a country that poses the most complex challenge for Myanmar? China, by strategically penetrating Myanmar, has not only armed itself with formidable leverage but also sought to turn the country into its corridor to the Indian Ocean. Having established a firm foothold in Myanmar’s Bay of Bengal port of Kyaukp hyu, Beijing is seeking to open a shorter, cheaper trade route to Europe via Myanmar’s River Irrawaddy, which flows south from near the Chinese border to the Andaman Sea. China holds the keys to ending decades of ethnic conflict in Myanmar, including by cutting off the flow of arms to guerrilla groups and exercising its clout over several key insurgent leaders. But it is unclear whether Beijing, despite being invited by Suu Kyi to play mediator, will genuinely aid her effort to build ethnic peace or use its role as a broker between the government and guerrilla groups to merely underpin its own leverage. A crucial peace conference hosted by Suu Kyi in the capital Naypyitaw ended in early September without any tangible progress. Meanwhile, to deflect Chinese pressure to resume the Beijing-sponsored Myitsone Dam project, Suu Kyi has appointed a 20-member commission to review the previous government’s decision to suspend it. The $3.6 billion project was designed to generate electricity largely for export to China while saddling Myanmar with human and environmental costs. But its 2011 suspension carried major strategic ramifications: While representing a slap in the face to China, it became a watershed moment for Myanmar, accelerating its democratic transition and ending the country’s international isolation. Suu Kyi can politically ill-afford to revive a dam project that she slammed as the opposition leader. The project indeed is despised in Myanmar as an epitome of China’s neocolonial policies toward smaller countries. Through the commission, Suu Kyi can help China save face, if Myanmar agrees to pay compensation. Beijing could plow that compensation into new deals for smaller, environmentally friendly hydropower plants. In concept, Suu Kyi’s “neutrality” in foreign policy seems attractive, potentially allowing her to carefully balance cooperation with all the major players in a way that advances Myanmar’s interest, without the country being forced to choose one power over another. Building such multidirectional collaboration can definitely help Myanmar to advance its development and security. In reality, though, it might be difficult for an aid-dependent, internally torn Myanmar to sustain a neutral foreign policy. Despite her diplomatic balancing act, Suu Kyi’s approach faces major challenges, including an arc of insurgencies in Myanmar and the attempt by various powers to treat the country as a chessboard of geopolitics. Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and the author of nine books.   © Nikkei Asian Review, 2016. 27 Oct
Asia’s megacities are running out of water - Brahma Chellaney, Nikkei Asian Review Asia’s cities are ballooning, and the accompanying upsurge in the consumption of water and production of waste in urban areas is placing new pressures on the environment. Home to 53% of the world’s urban population, Asia has the highest concentration of megacities, including Shanghai, Tokyo, Karachi and Beijing. Not only are Asia’s cities big and numerous, they are among the most polluted. The urban explosion has made providing safe water and sanitation a massive challenge for the region. Historically, the availability of local water resources has determined not only where major cities have been established but how well they have fared. But in Asia, rapid — and often unplanned — urban growth in recent decades has overwhelmed water systems. Asia’s per capita water availability is already the lowest of any continent. Fast economic growth, coupled with breakneck urbanization and changing lifestyles, has made a difficult situation worse. In 2012, slightly over half of the world’s population lived in urban areas. By 2050, that ratio is projected to jump to more than two-thirds, with much of that growth taking placing in Asia. The region’s urbanization is fueling demand for water not just for municipal use but also for manufacturing and agriculture. And changing diets, especially an increased preference for meat — the production of which is notoriously water-intensive — are compounding water challenges. Asia needs to make substantial water savings in agriculture to quench the thirst of its expanding cities. Some of the largest urban centers — from Beijing and Manila to Jakarta and Dhaka — are already at risk of running out of water. The challenge of providing safe drinking water is compounded by the growing incidence of floods and droughts in Asia. According to the Asian Development Bank, people living in the Asia-Pacific region are “four times more likely to be affected by natural disasters than those living in Africa, and 25 times more likely than those living in Europe or North America.” Most Asian megacities are in coastal areas, making them vulnerable to global warming-induced rises in ocean levels. As cities across the region struggle to access adequate water supplies, many of their residents are beginning to rely on bottled water. This practice, however, has fueled a serious waste-management problem. Due to very low recycling rates, billions of plastic bottles end up as garbage every year, taking up increasing space in landfills or even littering the landscape. Some cities are running out of places to put those bottles. The environmental problems do not end there: The retreat of megadeltas due to China’s upstream damming of rivers originating on the Tibetan Plateau has become a serious issue. According to several scientific studies, heavy upstream damming, which can obstruct the flow of silt to plains and estuaries, is contributing to the retreat and subsidence of Asia’s big deltas, which are home to such megacities as Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Bangkok, Kolkata and Dhaka. This development, in turn, is causing seawater to flow into coastal freshwater aquifers, affecting municipal supplies. UNCOVENTIONAL SOLUTIONS Yet despite this deepening crisis, a water-stressed Asia continues to live beyond its means environmentally, overexploiting water resources while hoping to postpone the day of reckoning. Some countries have responded to these challenges by implementing grand but environmentally questionable projects, from China’s South-North Water Transfer Project (the world’s biggest hydraulic initiative) to India’s now-stalled proposal to link up its most important rivers. With the first two of its three legs already operational, the $62 billion Chinese undertaking is aimed at moving water from the south to the parched north, all the way to Beijing and Tianjin. But the environmental costs are mounting: Energy-hogging treatment plants along the transfer routes seek to tackle water degradation and pollution, even as water quality deteriorates in the source river, the Yangtze. Given the project’s energy intensity, swelling costs and environmental impact, a better alternative for China would have been desalination, wastewater treatment and recycling, and reduced irrigated farming in its arid north. Asian cities have little choice but to tap unconventional sources for their water supply. One such option is recycled — or “reclaimed” — water. Singapore has embraced, on a commercial scale, the use of chemical processes to turn wastewater into clean water. The water-scarce city-state has found this option to be less expensive than desalinating seawater. The toilet-to-tap concept has long been in use in manned spacecraft. Still, the public is far less keen on recycled water than on desalinated water. To help ease the “yuck factor” among reluctant citizens, Singapore — like London and San Diego — mixes treated wastewater with conventional water in the city’s supply system. Even if the reclaimed water is channeled strictly for nonportable uses, such as gardening, flushing toilets and doing laundry, it can help alleviate a city’s water crisis. Reclaimed water can also be used to artificially replenish aquifers, rivers and reservoirs and for ecological purposes, such as restoring or enhancing wetlands and riparian habitats. With many Asian cities increasingly desperate for additional water resources, more metropolises will likely be forced to recycle wastewater to augment their supplies. Another option for Asian cities is rainwater harvesting, a relatively low-cost technique invented in Asia in the 9th or 10th centuries. Some cities are already trying it. For example, new apartment complexes and commercial buildings in the southern Indian metropolises of Bangalore and Chennai are required to have rainwater-harvesting systems. In much of Asia, heavy rains in the monsoon season make it easier to trap and store rainwater for dry-season use. Most Asian cities also need greater public and private investment to upgrade and maintain water-distribution networks so as to plug leakages and prevent contamination. In Asia, losses of treated water from leaky distribution were conservatively estimated at $9 billion in 2011, according to the Asian Development bank. Water scarcity is set to become Asia’s defining crisis, creating an obstacle in the continent’s path toward continued economic growth. Competition between cities, industries and farms over limited water resources is already intensifying. Addressing these challenges demands new skills, technologies, management practices and approaches, including building demand-side efficiency and tapping nontraditional water sources. Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and the author of “Water, Peace, and War,” and the award-winning “Water: Asia’s New Battleground,” among other books. © Nikkei Asian Review, 2016.18 Oct
Why Japan and India must be partners in Myanmar - A Japan-India partnership on major projects in Myanmar can help reduce the salience of Chinese influence there. BY BRAHMA CHELLANEY, The Japan Times, October 19, 2016 Myanmar’s de factor leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, is seeking to carefully balance relations with major powers as part of her commitment to revive the country’s tradition of pursuing a neutral foreign policy. Suu Kyi’s India visit this week follows trips to Beijing and Washington. Myanmar’s geographic, cultural and geostrategic positioning between India and China makes it critical to the long-term interests of both these powers. Crippling U.S.-led sanctions since the late 1980s pushed resource-rich Myanmar into China’s strategic lap. Sanctions without engagement have never worked. During his 2010 Indian tour, U.S. President Barack Obama criticized India’s policy of constructive engagement with Myanmar, only to return home and pursue, within months, a virtually similar policy. The shift in U.S. policy helped to spur Myanmar’s reform process, thereby ending half a century of military-dominated rule. Yet today the Obama White House is ignoring that lesson by pursuing a sanctions-only approach toward North Korea, which recently carried out its fifth and most-powerful nuclear test and then conducted a failed missile test launch last weekend. On her first visit to a major capital since her National League for Democracy (NLD) party came to power almost seven months ago, Suu Kyi in August visited Beijing, not New Delhi where she was educated. Her aim was to smooth over the frayed relationship with China. Ties with China have been roiled by Myanmar’s 2011 suspension of the $3.6 billion, Chinese-financed Myitsone Dam project. The suspension on the eve of China’s national day constituted a slap in the face to Beijing — a loss of face made worse by the fact that the action became a turning point for Myanmar’s democratization and reintegration with the outside world. The bold move, by demonstrating to Washington that Myanmar was no client state of China and by helping to both change U.S. policy and accelerate the country’s own transition to democracy, set in motion an easing of Western sanctions and ending Myanmar’s international isolation — best symbolized by Obama’s 2012 visit. After work on the Myitsone Dam was halted midway, China’s relations with Myanmar perceptibly cooled, with several energy and other dam projects also put on hold. Beijing, however, managed to complete multibillion-dollar oil and gas pipelines from Myanmar’s western coast to southern China. With the rise of a democratically governed Myanmar that is being wooed by all powers and by international investors, China can no longer push its strategic and resource interests by brushing aside questions about the environmental and human costs of its mining and other projects there. But with China still wielding more leverage over Myanmar than any other power, President Xi Jinping is pushing for the Myitsone project’s revival — or the undoing of the 2011 humiliation. To deflect Chinese pressure, Suu Kyi, before visiting Beijing, appointed a 20-member commission to review Myitsone and other dam projects on River Irrawaddy, the country’s lifeline. After her China trip, Suu Kyi, as part of her balancing act, visited Washington, where she was warmly received Sept. 14 at the White House. But it was only on Oct. 7 — about 11 months after the NLD won a landslide election victory — that Obama lifted U.S. economic sanctions on Myanmar through an executive order terminating an emergency directive that deemed the policies of its former military government a threat to U.S. national security. Military-related sanctions, however, have been retained. Suu Kyi, accompanied by key ministers, traveled to India to attend a weekend multinational summit in Goa and then hold bilateral meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other top officials in New Delhi. Her visit was part of India’s invitation to member states of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) for a joint summit with the five-nation BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in Goa. Suu Kyi thus met with a host of world leaders in Goa, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi. Bringing together Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand, BIMSTEC holds more promise than the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which is likely to remain a stunted organization, largely because of regional concerns over terrorism emanating from one of its members, Pakistan. A SAARC summit scheduled for next month in Islamabad collapsed after India, Afghanistan and Bangladesh accused Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency of orchestrating recent terrorist attacks within their borders. Myanmar is India’s gateway to the east. It was at the India-ASEAN summit in Myanmar’s capital Naypyitaw in late 2014 that Modi launched India’s U.S.-backed “Act East” policy. When Suu Kyi was in the opposition, India supported Suu Kyi’s democracy movement and sheltered many Myanmar refugees and dissidents, despite engaging with Myanmar’s military government in a carefully calibrated manner to promote political reconciliation and to stem China’s growing clout there. Today, a key challenge for both Myanmar and India is to manage a difficult and complex relationship with China. Just as India’s northern neighbor historically was Tibet, not China, Myanmar’s neighbor for much of its early history was the independent kingdom of Yunnan, with Tibet also sharing a border with Myanmar until 1950. Myanmar, like India, has long complained about the flow of Chinese arms to local guerrilla groups, accusing Beijing of backing several of them in its north as levers against it. Still, recognizing that Beijing holds the keys to ending decades of armed conflict in Myanmar, Suu Kyi has given China an important role in her new initiative to promote ethnic reconciliation. Yet, despite China playing mediator, a Suu Kyi-sponsored peacemaking gathering attended by ethnic warlords in Naypyitaw ended in early September without any headway. China values Myanmar as a strategic asset, viewing its long shoreline as a gateway to the Indian Ocean, where it is seeking to chip away at India’s natural-geographic advantage. Having established a foothold in Myanmar’s Bay of Bengal port of Kyaukpyu, from where new energy pipelines lead to southern China, Beijing is now seeking to open a shorter, cheaper trade route to Europe via Myanmar’s River Irrawaddy, which flows in a southerly direction from near the Chinese border to the Andaman Sea. Against this backdrop, India can ill afford to neglect Myanmar or persist with its sluggish implementation of projects there. It must actively involve itself in Myanmar, including by collaborating with Japan, with which it enjoys fast-growing strategic cooperation. The giant Thilawa industrial zone southeast of Yangon symbolizes Japan’s investment campaign in Myanmar to gain access to a new market and counterbalance China. Greater Indian investment in and counterinsurgency cooperation with Myanmar, coupled with an India-Japan partnership on major projects in that country, can help reduce the salience of Chinese influence there and further Suu Kyi’s agenda for a balanced, neutral and pragmatic foreign policy. Brahma Chellaney is a Richard von Weizsacker Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin and a professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi. © The Japan Times, 2016.18 Oct
BRICS reduced to a “talk shop”? - Brahma Chellaney On paper, the five BRICS countries — Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa — look like a powerful grouping: the member states combined represent more than a quarter of the earth’s landmass, over 42% of the global population, almost 25% of the world’s gross domestic product, and nearly half of the global foreign exchange and gold reserves. In reality, though, BRICS is still struggling to define a common identity and build institutionalized cooperation among its members. Their just-concluded summit, held in the Indian beach resort of Goa on Oct. 14-15, underscored inherent challenges. As the first important non-Western global initiative of the post-Cold War world, BRICS reflects ongoing global power shifts, including the slow retreat of Atlantic dominance. If BRICS can get its act together, it will be able to exercise significant geoeconomic and geopolitical clout and evolve into a major instrument to bring about fundamental changes in the architecture of global finance and governance. By serving as the building blocks of overhauled financial and governance systems, the BRICS economies would be a catalyst in the qualitative reordering of power and in reshaping the entire international order. After all, in a spectacular reversal of fortunes, the developing economies, with their large foreign reserves, now finance the mounting deficits of the wealthy economies. More importantly, the BRICS economies are likely to remain the world’s most important source for future growth. However, given that BRICS is just an extension of the BRIC concept conceived by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill in 2001, it is surprising that the grouping has stuck to an alien acronym. BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) became BRICS with the addition of South Africa in late 2010. Had the grouping pursued a more forward-looking approach, it could have simply called itself the “R-5” after the names of its members’ currencies — the real, rand, ruble, renminbi and rupee — and presented itself, in contrast to the obsolescent Group of Seven (G-7), as the face of the future. The plain fact is that the challenges BRICS faces today are fundamental, making its future uncertain. These disparate countries have starkly varying political systems, economies, and national goals, and are located in different corners of the globe. There is little in common among the BRICS states. For example, what is common between the world’s largest democracy, India, and the largest autocracy, China? The biggest real estate claimed by a revanchist China is an Indian state almost three times larger than Taiwan — Arunachal Pradesh, an ecological paradise of virgin forests, orchids and soaring mountain ranges. How can BRICS create rules-based cooperation among its members if international norms of behavior are flouted, as by China’s territorial creep in the South China Sea and its shielding of Pakistani terrorism at the United Nations Security Council and by Russia’s annexation of Crimea? To compound BRICS’ challenges, the Brazilian, Russian and South African economies have nose-dived in recent years, even as China’s faltering growth and downside deflationary risks have unsettled global markets. Only India has defied the BRICS’ slump, priding itself as the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Almost six years after it expanded from four to five member-states, BRICS has yet to evolve into a coherent grouping with defined goals and an institutional structure. Of course, it has created the Shanghai-based New Development Bank and set up, as a shield against global liquidity pressures, the $100-billion, China-dominated Contingent Reserve Arrangement. The real winner from both these initiatives is China, with BRICS left carrying the can. Despite its utility as a non-Western grouping, BRICS cannot remain just a “talk shop.” The Goa summit was a reminder that it has yet to devise a common action plan to go forward. To be sure, the annual BRICS summit provides a useful platform for bilateral discussions on the sidelines, as between the Chinese president and Indian prime minister on a host of issues that bedevil their countries’ bilateral relationship. Some member states, by piggybacking on the BRICS summit, hold their own bilateral summits before or after the event. For example, the annual India-Russia summit was held in Goa just before the start of the BRICS summit. Still, BRICS faces nagging questions about whether its members, with their different priorities and interests, can unite on key international issues. If BRICS is to build collective clout, its members must frame common objectives and approaches to tackling the pressing international issues. Take the scourge of terrorism: The Goa Declaration omitted any reference to cross-border terrorism or state sponsorship of terror or even to any Pakistan-based terrorist group at the instance of China, which sought to protect its close ally Pakistan from charges that its intelligence service was behind recent grisly attacks in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India. The G-7 began as a discussion platform like BRICS but, by defining its members’ common interests, it advanced within years to joint coordination on key international issues. BRICS, lacking the shared political and economic values that bind the G-7 members together, cannot stay relevant if it does little more than bring together its leaders and various stakeholders for discussions. Indeed, the most important bilateral relationship for each BRICS country is not with another BRICS member but with the United States. Worse still, an overly ambitious China, seeking to dominate the grouping and emerge as America’s peer rival, has cast a lengthening shadow over BRICS. For example, as part of its quest to build the yuan, or renminbi, as a global currency that could eventually rival the dollar or euro, a cash-rich China is using BRICS as an important vehicle to expand the renminbi’s international role, including by offering renminbi loans to other BRICS members. Lending and trading in renminbi helps China to boost its exports and international clout. China’s hidden export subsidies, however, have been systematically undermining manufacturing in the other BRICS states. Chinese dumping is blighting Indian and Brazilian manufacturing in particular. Consequently, China’s rapidly growing trade surplus, for example, with India has doubled since Narendra Modi became prime minister two-and-a-half years ago. This has armed Beijing with greater leverage over New Delhi. For Brazil, India, Russia and South Africa, BRICS offers largely symbolic benefits, including underscoring their growing international role and their desire to pluralize the global order. By contrast, China, which needs no recognition of its rise as a world power, is milking BRICS for tangible benefits, including to advance its economic and political benefits. Even on international institutional reforms, China is hardly on the same page as the other BRICS members. The present international order emerged in the post-1945 period as a U.S.-led hierarchical order involving a group of likeminded countries, largely in the West. Since then, the global institutional structure has remained largely static, even as the world has changed dramatically. As a result, the global financial and governance systems, ranging from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to the United Nations Security Council, no longer look truly global in terms of representation. This has made fundamental reforms to international institutions and rules imperative. China is a revisionist power with respect to the global financial architecture, seeking an overhaul of the Bretton Woods system that emerged in the mid-1940s. It also seeks to dominate the first tangible challenge to the Bretton Woods institutions, as symbolized by the BRICS’ New Development Bank and the China-created Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, headquartered in Beijing. China, however, is a status quo power in regard to the U.N. system and wishes to remain Asia’s sole country with a permanent seat in the Security Council, which means keeping fellow BRICS member India (and Japan) out. China’s strategy, by extension, also seeks to shut out India from other political institutions, including the Nuclear Suppliers Group, where it has almost singlehandedly blocked a U.S.-led push for India’s entry. Against this backdrop, if BRICS remains just a “talk shop,” it will not only fail to fulfill its true potential but will also wither away under the weight of its contradictions. The Goa summit did little to belie the contention of cynics that BRICS is just an acronym with little substance. Brahma Chellaney, a geostrategist and author, is Richard von Weizsäcker Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin and professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi.17 Oct
Why India must not neglect Myanmar - Brahma Chellaney, The Times of India, October 15, 2016 The visit of Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s de factor leader, to India is significant. Myanmar’s geographic, cultural and geostrategic positioning between India and China makes it critical to long-term Indian interests. Yet it took 25 years for an Indian prime minister to visit Myanmar, India’s gateway to the east. Since that visit in 2012 by Manmohan Singh, India has upgraded its Myanmar policy from constructive engagement to comprehensive interconnection. It was at the India-ASEAN Summit in Myanmar’s capital Naypyidaw in late 2014 that Narendra Modi launched India’s “Act East” policy. Yet, for his own inauguration in office, Modi invited leaders of all regional states, including Mauritius, but not next-door Myanmar, in a reminder of how India episodically neglects an important neighbour. Suu Kyi’s visit is part of India’s invitation to member-states of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) for a joint summit with BRICS at Goa. Bringing together Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand, BIMSTEC is a better alternative for India than the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which is likely to remain a stunted organization. Indeed, SAARC boxes India in an artificial regional framework; India’s natural strategic compass is broader. Suu Kyi, committed to reviving her country’s old tradition of a neutral foreign policy, is seeking to carefully balance relations with major powers. On her first visit to a major capital since her party came to power less than a year ago, Suu Kyi in August visited Beijing, not New Delhi where she was educated. Her aim was to smooth over the frayed relationship with China. Ties with China have been roiled by Myanmar’s 2011 suspension of the $3.6-billion, Chinese-financed Myitsone Dam project. The suspension on the eve of China’s national day constituted a slap in the face to Beijing — a loss of face made worse by the fact that the action became a turning point for Myanmar’s democratization and reintegration with the outside world. The bold move, by demonstrating that Myanmar was no client state of China and by helping to accelerate the country’s transition to democracy, set in motion an easing of Western sanctions and ending Myanmar’s international isolation — best symbolized by Barack Obama’s 2012 visit, the first ever by a U.S. president. But with China still wielding more leverage over Myanmar than any other power, President Xi Jinping is now pushing for the Myitsone project’s revival — or the undoing of the 2011 humiliation. To blunt Chinese pressure, Suu Kyi, before visiting Beijing, appointed a 20-member commission to review the project. After her China trip, Suu Kyi, as part of her balancing act, visited Washington, where she was warmly received. But it was just last weekend that Obama lifted U.S. economic sanctions on Myanmar, while retaining military-related sanctions. Myanmar, like India, has long complained about the flow of Chinese arms to guerrilla groups, accusing Beijing of backing several of them in its north as levers against it. Still, recognizing that Beijing holds the keys to ending decades of armed conflict in Myanmar, Suu Kyi has given China an important role in her new initiative to promote ethnic reconciliation. Yet, despite China playing mediator, a Suu Kyi-sponsored peacemaking gathering attended by ethnic warlords in Naypyidaw ended early last month without any headway. China values Myanmar as a strategic asset, viewing its long shoreline as a gateway to the Indian Ocean, where it is seeking to chip away at India’s natural-geographic advantage. Having established a foothold in Myanmar’s Kyaukpyu port, from where the new energy pipelines lead to southern China, Beijing is seeking to open a shorter, cheaper trade route to Europe via Myanmar’s River Irrawaddy. Against this backdrop, India can ill afford to neglect Myanmar, or persist with its sluggish implementation of projects there, or unilaterally conduct cross-border military strikes on Naga guerrillas. While being sensitive to Myanmarese concerns, India must actively involve itself in Myanmar through greater trade, investment and counterinsurgency cooperation to help reduce the salience of Chinese influence and to further Suu Kyi’s agenda for a balanced, neutral and pragmatic foreign policy. Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and the author, most recently, of “Water, Peace, and War.” © The Times of India, 2016.15 Oct
The Concept of Humility: Freedom from Grandiose Illusions - I’ve just read a piece of writing that I can only begin to describe by saying that there is so much wrong with it that I hardly even know where, indeed, to begin.  Why don’t you, Dear Reader, start by giving it a thorough look yourself, then please come on back here.   I suppose it behooves to draw attention from the outset to Jim Davies’ continuing assertion that fellow Root Striker Paul Bonneau is a “suspected government plant” before then repairing to his assertion that certain views of both Bonneau and myself are “nonsense” and that – as a result of STR having published our respective thoughts – it has become, in his vaunted opinion (and I have much more to say on opinions in a moment), “an unreliable source of understanding about freedom.”   Davies then goes on to state that I “follow” Bonneau (though I’m not clear whether he means that in a sequential or Pied Piper sense), and that “it's sad to see him lose track of rationality in such a way.”   I might have a word or two right here about the rationality and maybe even neurological status of the person whose thoughts I just described above, but perhaps that’s best done by simply addressing the rest of what Davies has to say.   The first point he seems to want to drive home is the idea that, although various functions of the mind (the examples he cites are imagining, writing, languages, and mathematics) are not tangible, they still “exist,” per se.   Without nitpicking the electrochemical processes that enable thought within the brain itself to begin with, in truth, the only outward means by which cerebral functions can be said to “exist” at all are by the actions they may produce.  If I sit and dream of a landscape, all well and fine, but it remains a mere apparition.  Even if I tell you about it, you have only my word to go on that it “exists.”  I could even be lying, for all you know or can tell.  If I take that vision of a landscape and paint a picture of it, that may lend some credence to my tale, but I’ve also just produced a painting – not an actual concept.  You can see the end result of that ephemeral concept, the effort that went into attempting to express it in some form, but never the concept itself.  Often physical approximations of concepts are possible to create – people have made the world full of them, in fact – but never the raw concept itself, as distinct from its end product.   Be that as it may, however, all of this explanation is in truth unnecessary.  This is because Davies’ ultimate focus is on “rights” and not abilities – and there is a glaring difference between the two which he fails to in any way acknowledge.    Abilities tell us what one is capable of doing.  “Rights” tell us (or are ostensibly supposed to) what it is permissable to do within and amongst the society of others.    Thus, whether one can or cannot physically write a symphony, sell heroin to a child, build a house, throw rocks at cars, wash the dishes, or kill someone, tells us precisely nothing about what others in society (and in different cultures and time periods, for that matter) may or may not tolerate in terms of activities engaged in.  In Davies’ view, presumably, so long as an activity falls within the purview of the non-aggression principle (a viewpoint which, it is worthy of note, is itself subject to contest and arbitration in any number of specific situations), then it constitutes a “right.”  And it is by this standard alone that he asserts such as an objective truth that remains unassailable in the face of whatever degree of resistance, no matter that every last other person on Earth should militantly oppose him to the death.   While we might well agree, as libertarians, with Davies definition of a “right” insofar as it happens to conform to our own ideological ideas of justice and ethics, unlike Davies, if we wish to also acknowledge the practical physical realities of existing in a world with other people who – quite often -- have very different ideas than our own, then we need to approach “rights” with the level of humility necessary for both truth, and survival.  This is to say that, for all of the heartfelt conviction with which we might assert the libertarian position, we can do no more than try to make a theoretical case for such.  We cannot, try as we might, produce uncontestable, hard evidence of our position.  (Unlike, say, demonstrating “three.”  We might apply an infinite number of labels to “three,” but we can always physically demonstrate that it is a quantity that remains ever constant.  Three apples, for instance, remains always and forever just what it is, and nothing besides to the sane.)   As a result, others can, and most certainly do, disagree with us – often quite vehemently -- all the time, as should only be obvious.  And not always peacefully, it just so happens.  And not just those calling themselves Government, either.  Like it or no, we must acknowledge this.   Can a purely objective case be made for “rights,” then, ever?  If so, what are they, and who decides?  Are the “rights” we allegedly possess at present predicated upon some unimpeachable standard (like, say “three”)?  If so, what is it?  Where is it?  And why do so many people consistently, and with unbending resolve, resist libertarian views if they are so indelibly etched in stone – as Davies would have us believe?   For the record, here was (and is) my take on the entire idea of “rights”:   My contention is that "rights" are in reality little more than opinions. However, they possess two essential characteristics: 1.) They must be something that at least a significant portion of the population recognizes as such, and; 2.) they must be things that you have a reasonable chance of defending or restoring, in the event they are abrogated, by either peaceful and/or violent means.   Think about it: If you were alone in the world, would you have "rights?" The entire concept becomes superfluous. We only entertain the idea of "rights" once other humans come into the picture. This pretty much deep-sixes the idea of stand-alone concrete "rights" that don't depend upon outside human approval. Any contention to the contrary, again, is instantly reduceable to mere opinion.   One can make a theoretical case for “rights” by appealing to the court of public opinion.  But then this must come with the understanding that – no matter how sound and indefatigable you believe your own logic to be -- win, lose, or draw, you have to live with (or die by) the end result.  Davies rabidly denies this quite simple and obvious reality.  It is perhaps little wonder, then, why society by and large chooses to ignore what he, and others like him, have to say.    “If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him.” ~  Voltaire     Rather telling still is Davies’ atheistic view.  God is not real and does not exist.  Davies is sure of this.  So sure, in fact, that he offers as his case only a rejection of all man-made theological texts, as if this is conclusive proof of precisely anything – other than that history has contained a plenitude of theists who were and are every single bit as foolishly presumptuous and self-assured as he is.  He dismisses out of hand the possibility of God for having a “lack of supporting evidence,” yet nowhere provides an explanation for what does exist all around us.  He evinces the same attitude as might a European of 500 years ago towards the notion of radio waves, then expects to be taken seriously.   But observe the ultimate irony at work here:  With respect to his view on “rights,” Davies is carrying out Voltaire’s observation in secular form.  Since “rights” don’t really exist – but in his view should (and I must reemphasize here that I am not entirely unsympathetic with that view in principle – the crucial difference being that I know and realize it to be only my opinion; shared by some, even many perhaps, but not and never by all) – then it is necessary to invent some rationale by which they do exist, objectively, outside of the realm of pure theory.  Yes, “rights” must exist – according to Davies -- lest the human race die off in a sea of blood.  Thus, we must endeavor to make reality conform to our ideas somehow.   Davies then concludes with an utterly incredible statement:  “Here's a final example of a concept that is entirely real: conscience.”   It’s hard for me to even imagine the kind of reasoning that produced that level of asininity.  Not that it matters, but the example Davies cites is Oskar Schindler.  Schindler changed his mind.  He changed his opinions.  How does that in any way constitute a “real” thing, an objective thing?  As above, Schindler’s subsequent actions may have had substance, but the fact that he changed his viewpoint on a subject or two?  That produces an objective thing?    There is the world of theory, and then there is the actual world we live in.  Some recognize this, and others fail to.  I’ll leave you, Dear Reader, to decide which category Davies falls into.   The next time you encounter a “right” on the street, please let me know, I’ll be interested to see it.   Meanwhile, I’ll be right here – breathing normally.   8 Nov
Against busyness - A nice post at the HBR blog by Silvia Bellezza, Neeru Paharia and Anat Keinan describes how being busy is now celebrated as a symbol of high status. This is not natural. Marshall Sahlins has shown that in hunter-gather societies (which were the human condition for nine-tenths of our existence) people typically worked for only around 20 hours a week (pdf). In pre-industrial societies, work was task-oriented; people did as much as necessary and then stopped. Max Weber wrote: Man does not “by nature” wish to earn more and more money, but simply to live as he is accustomed to live and to earn as much as is necessary for that purpose. Wherever modern capitalism has begun its work of increasing the productivity of human labour by increasing its intensity, it has encountered the immensely stubborn resistance of this leading trait of pre-capitalistic labour. (The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism (pdf), p24) The backward-bending supply curve of labour was normal. E.P. Thompson has described (pdf) how pre-industrial working hours were irregular, with Mondays usually taken as holidays. He, and writers such as Sidney Pollard (pdf) and Stephen Marglin, have shown how the working day as we know it was imposed by ruthless discipline, reinforced by Christian moralists. (There’s a clue in the title of Weber’s book).  Marglin quotes Andrew Ure, author of The Philosophy of Manufacturers in 1835: The main difficulty [faced by Richard Arkwright] did not, to my apprehension, lie so much in the invention of a proper mechanism for drawing out and twisting cotton into a continuous thread, as in…training human beings to renounce their desultory habits of work and to identify themselves with the unvarying regularity of the complex automation. To devise and administer a successful code of factory discipline, suited to the necessities of factory diligence, was the Herculean enterprise, the noble achievement of Arkwright…It required, in fact, a man of a Napoleon nerve and ambition to subdue the refractory tempers of workpeople accustomed to irregular paroxysms of diligence. Today, though, such external discipline is no longer so necessary because many of us – more so in the UK and US than elsewhere – have internalized the capitalist imperative that we work long hours, as Bellezza, Paharia and Keinan show*. Which just vindicates a point made by Bertrand Russell back in 1932: The conception of duty, speaking historically, has been a means used by the holders of power to induce others to live for the interests of their masters rather than for their own. In some cases, though, such long hours are inefficient even by capitalistic standards. In fund management, for example, laziness can pay off**. Shann Turnbull’s idea of the cybernetic company suggests that a well-run firm should in many respects run itself without the need for busy management. And I suspect that in many creative occupations, we get our best ideas in the bath or just chilling. Russell said that “a great deal of harm is being done in the modern world by belief in the virtuousness of work.” I suspect the harm isn’t just cultural – important as that is – but also economic. In fact, most economists agree we'd be happier of there were more public holidays. All of this is, of course, a fancy way of saying that I’m going on holiday. Happy Christmas everyone. * Personally, I believe the opposite. If a man still needs to work hard after an Oxbridge education and thirty years of house price inflation, there's something wrong with him. ** One reason for this is that fund managers have only a handful of good ideas and time spent looking beyond these encounters diminishing returns. In fact, the returns might be negative, if research causes the manager to chase noise rather than buy genuinely under-priced assets.21 Dec
An appeal for ground truth - There’s much talk of “post-truth politics” as if it were the sole creation of social media and fake news websites. This is misleading, because the mainstream media – and in particular the prominence given to Westminster correspondents – is itself partly to blame. I’m prompted to say this by Tom Crewe’s superb account of the Tories destruction of local government. Austerity is not merely an abstract policy, but causes real damage in the form of closures of libraries and Sure Start centres, cuts to bus routes and increased homelessness. And to this we could add worse flood defences, less care for the elderly and disabled and increased likelihood of prison riots. It’s in this context that Westminster political reporting is positively dangerous. In presenting politics as a “he says, she says” knockabout, the ground truth of real damage to real people is overlooked, and instead it becomes merely a matter of abstract debate. George Osborne managed to present himself as being on the side of devolution because he talked so much about the “Northern powerhouse”. But the reality of big cuts to local government meant he was in fact a centralizer. Post-truth Westminster correspondents who listened to words rather than looked at ground truth let him get away with this. This trend, of course, contains a vicious class bias. “He says, she says” reporting tends to be deferential towards those in power. This isn’t just because they have better-resourced PR departments but also because, as Adam Smith said, there’s a “disposition to admire, and almost to worship, the rich and the powerful.” Such reporting also favours those with superficial charm and over-confidence – traits more likely to be possessed by men from rich backgrounds such as Cameron and Farage. And of course in giving a voice to Westminster politicians, the voices of people on the ground are not heard. All of this is to support Paul Mason who says: One of the most pitiful things about the political class...is their distance from the actual experience of work. A media which paid more attention to the ground truth of workplace coercion, wage stagnation and casualization would give us a better understanding of strikes than “he says, she says” debates between partisans. But this is absent in post-truth reporting. What I’m appealing for here is for journalists (and economists) to get their shoes dirty, to look for facts on the ground rather than quotes from “senior sources” who are themselves often ignorant or careless of ground truth; in fairness, many do so – though I suspect these tend to the less well-paid reporters*. It’s people like Kate Belgrave and projects like Migrant Voice or Unpaid Britain we should listen to more than empty suits and gobshite columnists. Remember the original and correct meaning of Raymond Wolfinger’s words: the plural of anecdote IS data.” All of this, however, is a long way from a lot of the journalism we get. * I know, I risk the charge of “physician, heal thyself” here. But I like to think that in my day job I don’t confuse getting a quote from a fund manager with pursuing the truth.20 Dec
The decline of public service - Have we under-estimated the importance of self-restraint in politics, and over-estimated that of formal explicit constitutional rules? I ask because of two things I’ve seen recently. One is David Remnick’s complaint about Trump's appointments: Having no experience in a given field seems to be, in the Trumpian universe, the greatest of virtues. The contempt for experience (as a marker of “élitism”) is parallel to the contempt for science, for fact, for restraint, for consideration, for decency, for a sense of the past. The other is Jonathan Freedland’s account of the rise of lying in politics: In the political realm have we somehow drifted into a world in which no one can be trusted, not on questions of judgment, nor even on questions of fact. But we cannot live in such a world. Evidence, facts and reason are the building blocks of civilisation. Without them we plunge into darkness. These two pieces pose the question: why have things come to this? Here’s a theory: politicians’ self-restraint has diminished. They used to have self-imposed rules about not lying egregiously; or trying to think about policy; or trying not to appoint complete duffers; or not accepting positions for which one was unfit. Today, these restraints are weaker. I had many complaints about Thatcher. But I wouldn’t list among them the sort of systematic bare-faced lying of the sort we saw from the Leave campaign, or (with the possible exception of the poll tax) the reckless disregard for the basic principles of good decision-making that seems to characterize “planning” for Brexit. Thatcher was wrong, but I don’t think she held facts and truth in contempt, as Trump and some Brexiters do*. She was at least trying. The notion of “public service” wasn’t wholly pompous blather: it contained a kernel of truth that is smaller now than it once was.   In truth, of course, self-restraint and social preferences (pdf) are widespread and necessary. The tragedy of the commons was alleviated in part by stinting. Crime is low not just because of the fear of punishment but because of our self-restraint. And organizations (especially perhaps in the public sector) succeed in large part because of intrinsic motivations and reciprocity: workers who are paid more than is strictly necessary do more than is necessary. This is why “works to rule” can be disruptive. It could be that the same was true in politics. Perhaps liberal democratic politics worked - insofar as it did - not just because of explicit constitutional rules and checks and balances but because of politicians' intrinsic motives. What we’re seeing now is the demise of such public spirit. Exactly why this has happened is a big question. I suspect Freedland is right to attribute it to the rise of tribalism, which I suspect is a manifestation of increased narcissism. If you’re totally confident that you’re right (which is of course the vice of overconfidence) you’ll not see the need to engage with reality or to ensure that your appointments are minimally competent. But here’s the problem. In a healthy polity, the demise of politicians’ self-restraint wouldn’t much matter because conventional checks and balances would protect us. The media would expose mendacity and incompetence, and voters would reject dishonest or inadequate candidates and policies. Such checks might still exist – if, say, Congress vetoes some of Trump’s appointments. But perhaps a lesson of this year is that they are weaker than we’d hoped. Which makes the decline of self-restraint even more worrying. * Someone famously said: “Washington couldn't tell a lie, Nixon couldn't tell the truth, and Reagan couldn't tell the difference.” There is, though, a big difference between indifference towards the truth and actual hostility to it. 19 Dec
More evidence for voter irrationality - Whenever some of us claim that voters are irrational, we’re met with the accusation that we’re elitists who haven’t come to terms with the possibility that crowds are wiser than we are. In this context, therefore, I welcome some new research by Erik Eyster and Ernesto and Pedro Dal Bo who provide experimental evidence (pdf) that voters are irrational. They got subjects to play a prisoners’ dilemma game in which there were big pay-offs to defecting with the result that subjects did not cooperate even though the aggregate rewards to doing so were high. After a few rounds of that game, subjects were offered a vote on a tax which would have disincentivized defection and so encouraged cooperation and the achievement of those higher rewards. However, the majority of subjects voted against the proposal even though it was in their interests. This suggests that people look too much at the obvious cost of a policy and under-estimate the extent to which it can have the benefits of changing behaviour. The authors say: Voters will tend to focus on the direct effects of the policy change and underappreciate the indirect effects. As a result, voters will favor reforms with positive direct effects, even when undone by negative indirect effects, and reject reforms with negative direct effects, even when more than compensated by positive indirect effects. This is consistent with work by David Leiser and Zeev Kril, who have shown that laymen are terrible at identifying causal connections in economics. Does this have real-world relevance? What sort of policies fit this sort of pattern? Plenty. The authors give the example of pollution taxes: maybe voters overweight their direct cost and underweight their indirect effect in curbing pollution. They also suggest that price or rent controls fit this pattern. Voters see their direct benefit, but under-rate their adverse impact upon supply. Some of you might add minimum wage laws to this category: voters might overweight their direct benefit of raising wages but underweight the indirect effect of curbing labour demand. We might add that policies that disincentivize arms races also fall into this category. This might explain hostility to Robert Frank’s call for a progressive consumption tax to deter the excessive spending that results from expenditure cascades. Perhaps immigration controls fit the pattern too. Voters see the direct benefit: fewer immigrants mean less competition for jobs and hence higher wages. But they don’t see that if their wages rise without any increase in productivity then inflation and interest rates will rise, which means that people will lose their jobs because of weaker demand. The Brexit vote might also conform to this. Maybe voters over-rated the direct benefit of Brexit (“we’ll save £350m a week”) and under-rated the indirect cost, that Brexit would weaken the economy and hence the public finances. Franklin Roosevelt once said that “democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely.” And it seems voters don’t choose wisely. It would, however, be wrong to blame voters alone here. They aren’t expert economists, any more than I’m an expert plumber or electrician. The fault also lies with politicians – with the “elite” if you like. They don’t seem to care much about the quality of voters’ decision-making, as they as they support the right side. And the media are also at fault, in taking little effort to improve voters’ wisdom. If Roosevelt was right, such carelessness is positively dangerous.   Another thing: we must distinguish between being right and being rational. It's possible that Brexit or high minimum wages are the right policies even if voters choose them for irrational reasons. I find it hard to believe, however, that irrational voters will always or even often choose the right policies for the wrong reasons.15 Dec
Tories' target fetishism - There’s a famous story about a nail factory in the old Soviet Union. When it was told to produce millions of nails, it made them so small as to be useless, but when it was told to make tons of nails, it made them so big they were useless*. I was reminded of this by the Guardian’s report that the government is considering almost halving the number of foreign students coming to the UK. This is obviously moronic. It would deprive us of billions of pounds of export earnings at a time when we’re borrowing massively from overseas; it would harm one of the UK’s very few world-class high-skilled industries; and it would deprive us of the “soft power” than we’d enjoy from future foreign decision-makers having goodwill towards the country as a result of their student experiences. Why, then, do something so stupid? It’s because cutting student visas is the easiest way of achieving the target of reducing immigration, just as producing useless nails was the factory’s easiest way of hitting its targets. What we have in both cases are egregious examples of target fetishism. Targets are often not ultimate goals but rather expressions of those goals – and sometimes bad ones. What the Soviet Union wanted was more good nails. Similarly, when people say they want to reduce immigration they don’t have in mind an urge to cut the numbers of Chinese physics students. In both cases, chasing the target misses the goal. And here, I lose patience with the Tories. Those of us who grew up in the 70s and 80s were told by the Tories that central planning was a stupid idea. And yet here we have a Tory government considering the same mistake that central planners made, of thinking that it was sufficient to hit targets. But there’s more. What we have here is a failure to see the case for freedom. This is that if you give power to the state it’ll be misused, because the actually-existing state is a stupid bully. Just as “anti-terror” laws have been used to harass journalists and peaceful protestors, so immigration controls will hurt decent people. And for the same reason - because they are the softest targets. There was a time when Tories were, rightly, distrustful of the state. That time has passed. The Tories are now the enemies of freedom, and of basic economic rationality too. * I don't know if this story is true or not: if it's not, it merely shows that today's Tories are even stupider than Soviet central planners.13 Dec
The productivity silence - Simon recently tweeted that it is important to ask why we are not talking about the crisis of stagnant productivity all the time. He’s surely right: this is our most important economic problem. So why isn’t it a top political priority? The fault, I suspect lies with voters, politicians and the media. In voters’ case, it’s because stagnant productivity isn’t very salient. “Some Latvians moved in down the road and now my son can’t get a decent job” is an obvious story to tell – even if it’s wrong. But the UK’s productivity slowdown, and our low productivity relative to other developed countries, is a story about countless things that UK businesses do less well than their French or American counterparts and about impersonal forces such as low investment and innovation, slower world trade growth, a fear of credit constraints, a slowdown in entry and exit and so on. Such things are important, but not vivid. Reinforcing this is a self-serving bias. People would rather blame their low pay upon immigrants than on the fact that they are incompetent unskilled buffoons. Herein, though, lies a defect of modern democracy. Because the notion of consumer sovereignty has taken over politics, politicians think that what they’re “hearing on the doorstep” matters. In some ways it does. But it can also be a lousy guide to what really matters economically. Few politicians are brave enough to tell voters: “you shouldn’t worry about that; this is a bigger problem.” And, of course, the media reinforces this. The BBC takes its agenda from politicians and the press. If these are talking about what are trivial matters economically speaking such as immigration or government borrowing, the BBC will reflect this and so ignore productivity. This is reinforced by three other factors:  - The BBC prefers controversy. A row between idiots – one of whom is usually called Nigel – is better TV or radio than an expert discussion of productivity.  - Official productivity data comes out only quarterly (though it can be inferred from monthly data), whereas figures on inflation and government borrowing are monthly. This means the news will more often report the latter than the former.  - Productivity is a dry abstract story. The media are much better at human interest stories than in analysing social structures and impersonal forces. But perhaps there’s something else. Many people do think: “I’d be better paid if this place weren’t so badly managed”. This sentiment, however, never gets onto the political agenda and the connection from this notion to worker democracy never gets made. Bosses are regarded as the only experts whose competence is unchallengeable. Maybe therefore the relative silence about productivity is yet another example of how managerialism – or neoliberalism if you insist – has triumphed so totally.12 Dec
The populist paradox - Danny Finkelstein in the Times is good on the need to resist attempts to bully the Supreme Court. He says: Our institutions – parliament, government, the courts – must serve a plural society, they must balance interests and protect rights. The case for doing so lies in large part in cognitive diversity – the idea that a plurality of viewpoints is wiser than an individual one. Edmund Burke famously wrote: We are afraid to put men to live and trade each on his own private stock of reason; because we suspect that this stock in each man is small, and that the individuals would do better to avail themselves of the general bank and capital of nations and of ages (Par 145). Herein lies a virtue of the rule of law: laws represent the capital of wisdom of ages, and so should act as a check upon our present and perhaps fleeting judgments. Similarly, as Danny says, parliament “allows diverse representation.” Which brings me to a paradox. Academic research in recent years – inspired by Daniel Kahneman – has taught us that Burke was right. Our judgments can be flawed in many ways. Our private stock of wisdom (and knowledge too) is indeed small. We’d therefore expect to see more support for institutions that embody diversity and which check our judgements. And yet the rise of populism represents the exact opposite of this – the urge that one’s opinion must over-ride all constraints. What explains this paradox? You might object that parliament and the courts aren’t as diverse as Danny says. The former is dominated by PPEist clones and the Supreme Court judges are old, posh and white. This, though, is an argument for ensuring more genuine diversity, not for allowing mob opinion to be unchecked. Another answer is that academic research hasn’t affected public opinion. Yes, the BBC does broadcast some good programmes about social science. But it is scrupulous in ensuring these are confined to a ghetto on Radio 4 whilst slots which get bigger audiences are filled by speak your branes drivel. But there’s something else. Increasing academic awareness of the limits of our judgment has been outweighed by the rise of narcissism. Everyone (not just young people) is a special snowflake whose opinion must be respected. It’s this, says Anjana Ahuja, that underpins the populist backlash against science: Facts and the search for objective truth make up the essence of science; a disregard for the same is not only a hallmark of the new politics but a badge of honour…Why is science under siege? One possible explanation is that it favours objective evidence over subjective experience*. We see the same thing in Arron Banks’ efforts to teach Mary Beard about the fall of the Roman Empire and Douglas Carswell telling scientists about the causes of tides. As Burke said, “they have no respect for the wisdom of others; but they pay it off by a very full measure of confidence in their own.” My readers don’t need telling about the Dunning-Kruger effect or that Daniel Kahneman said that overconfidence is the most damaging and widespread of mistakes – but many people still do. To be clear, my beef here is not so much with what you believe as how you believe it. There is a respectable case for Brexit, though it’s weakening. What is unjustifiable is a fanaticism which wants to over-ride evidence, expertise and traditional institutions. This form of populism is not just a political problem but an intellectual and, dare I say it psychological, disorder.   * She’s writing about populist opposition to climate science. But we saw the same thing years ago when parents refused to give their children MMR vaccinations against the scientific evidence. 7 Dec
Why not centrism? - Some people want to revive centrism. Tony Blair wants to “build a new policy agenda for the centre ground”. And the Lib Dems’ victory in Richmond Park is being seen as a warning to the Tories that it must “keep the votes of the middle ground.” This poses the question: does the idea of political centre ground even make sense? It does, if you think of political opinion being distributed like a bell curve with a few extremists at either end and lots of moderates in the middle. But this doesn’t seem to apply today, and not just because political opinion has always been multi-dimensional. What we have now is a split between Leavers and Remainers, and the ideas correlated with those positions such as openness versus authoritarianism. Where does the “centre ground” fit into this? My question is reinforced by the fact that centrists have for a long time defined themselves by what they are not. For years, the Lib Dems biggest selling point was that they weren’t Labour or Tories, and so garnered the protest vote (Oh, such happy days!) This failure to make a positive case seems to have continued. As Ellie Mae O’Hagan tweeted: I think centrism - whatever it is - could flourish again. But it needs to make a case for existence. And it... isn't. So, what would such a case look like? The answer, I suspect, lies in a recent speech (pdf) by Mark Carney. (The Bank of England seems to be doing a better job than the main opposition parties). He points out that the gains from trade and technology have been “uneven”: While trade makes countries better off, it does not raise all boats; in the clinical words of the economist, trade is not Pareto optimal…For free trade to benefit all requires some redistribution. This, I think, is the essence of centrism. It accepts that globalization and free markets (within limits) bring potential benefits, but that these benefits must be spread more evenly via the tax and welfare system. This stands in contrast to nativism and some forms of leftism which oppose globalization and favour market intervention. It also contrasts to libertarianism and Thatcherism which emphasize freeish markets whilst underplaying redistribution. It’s also what New Labour stood for. It saw that globalization and freeish markets brought benefits, but also that these had to be accompanied by policies such as tax credits to help the low-paid*. And it’s also conventional economics: markets are good(ish) ways of allocating resources, but not so good at distributing incomes. This poses the question: what’s wrong with such a vision? Phil says it’s too abstractly technocratic to speak to voters: The lived reality of voters are erased by the cult of numbers, or replacing the feeling and perception of economic relief by indices measuring GDP, inflation and wage growth. Interest becomes more and more narrowly refined into a bland national interest, expressed in increasing and decreasing metrics assumed to be in congruence with the good life. I have a slightly different beef. It’s that this form of centrism offers too etiolated a vision of equality. Inequality isn’t simply a matter of pay packets but of power too. Centrism fails to tackle the latter. This is a big failing not least because policies to increase productivity might require greater equality of power in the workplace – something which technocratic centrism has long ignored. It’s become a cliché that Blair has been discredited by the war in Iraq. I fear, though, that everyone draws the wrong conclusion from that episode. The war wasn’t just a moral failing but an intellectual one: as Chilcot showed, it’s the sort of terrible decision you get when leaders are isolated from ground truth: Fred Goodwin’s takeover of ABN Amro (perhaps the worst economic decision of my lifetime) also falls into this category.   For me, therefore, a centrism which ignores inequalities of power must be inadequate. Herein, though, lies the sadness: even this form of centrism would be a big  improvement upon a lot of today’s politics. * New Labour didn’t, I think, regard the minimum wage as a device for correcting market failure or for relieving poverty. Instead, it saw it as a way of preventing employers from using tax credits to drive down wages. 6 Dec
Elites or people? - The votes for Trump and Brexit have highlighted a division between “elites” and the “people”. For me, though, this is the wrong dichotomy. The question instead is: under what conditions are the people right, and under what conditions are elites right? Both can sometimes go wrong. Experts are prone not just to professional deformation (pdf) – the tendency for perceptions to be warped by their training – but also groupthink. For example, the replication crisis – which is by no means confined to psychology – suggests that peer review fails to weed out poor academic research and might even enhance groupthink.   What’s more, pretences to expertise can often merely be a desire for wealth and power, as Alasdair MacIntyre wrote: The realm of managerial expertise is one in which what purport to be objectively-grounded claims function in fact as expressions of arbitrary, but disguised, will and preference. (After Virtue, p107) But on the other hand, we know that the people are often wrong about basic facts, are terrible at understanding connections between economic phenomena, are misinformed by a biased media, and prone to countless cognitive biases. Rather than always side with the people or always with elites, we should abandon grandiose generalizations and ask in each specific context: who is most likely to be right here – the elite or the people? Here are some tests I’d apply. First, are the conditions in place for the wisdom of crowds to operate? Namely, are individuals’ judgments diverse, uncorrelated and decentralized? In economic forecasting, I think this is the case. Each individual’s decision on how much to spend is based upon specific private information about his personal future. Aggregate data (pdf) on consumption-wealth ratios thus do a good job of gathering together dispersed fragmentary information about our future prospects. I’d rather trust the crowd, therefore, than economic forecasters. This isn’t to say the crowd is perfect: spending decisions can be influenced by peers. But nothing’s perfect. The question is one of the relative size of errors. Secondly, are beliefs motivated by nasty or self-interested preferences? This can be true of elites. Bosses’ hostility to worker democracy and fund managers’ claims to be able to beat the market owe more to self-interest than fact. George Monbiot says the same is true of oil companies who finance climate change deniers. Equally, though, it can also be true of the public: antipathy to immigration might in some cases be founded upon a dislike of foreigners rather than purer motives. Thirdly, are there obvious errors and biases at work here? Everybody – expert or layman – is prone to cognitive bias. I prefer to look for errors and then ask: what biases might lead people into error? I suspect this is the case with the public’s belief that immigration has significantly pushed down wages and job prospects. It is due in part to the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy (“some immigrants came last year and now I can’t find a decent job”); to the failure to see that immigration can raise natives’ wages by allowing them to do more skilled jobs; and to an ignorance of the myriad other forces depressing pay. This isn’t to say the public need always be wrong on immigration. If people in areas of high immigration offered factual evidence about (say) how migration is eroding social capital, I would take that as evidence that locals possessed a “ground truth” that elites had overlooked. Relatedly, I’d ask how much effort people have taken to slough off cognitive biases. In David Davis’s case, the answer seems to be: none. Fourthly, is this a statement of fact or opinion? It’s possible in theory that the EU referendum might have gathered thousands of fragmentary facts. People might have figured “the EU stops me doing x, y, or z” (or facilitates them) and voted accordingly. But this isn’t, for the most part, what we got. Instead, we had a poisonous mixture of racism, lies and hyperbole.  One reason why I favour worker democracy more than plebiscites is that the former is a way of gathering dispersed information - of aggregating marginal gains about corporate performance – whereas the latter are not. Now, I’m not saying these tests are perfect. Nothing is. And we might disagree from context to context on how to apply them. Sadly, however, these tests seem not to be applied in politics. Which is one reason why we see the worst of public opinion being expressed rather than the best. 1 Dec
Criminally stupid - There is a point at which stupidity ceases to be a merely intellectual error and becomes a crime. If Nick Cohen is right, the government has crossed this point. He writes: [David] Davis seems closer in spirit to a bubbly PR girl than a hard-headed statesman. He wants to hear only good news. He wants to see only smiling faces…On no account must businessmen and women say they are worried about Britain abandoning its membership of the single market, the civil servants warn. They needed to ‘go into the meeting saying that they were very excited by the possibilities of Brexit. Anyone who felt differently tended to be asked to leave in the first five minutes. This echoes Ian Dunt: We are living under rulers who do not believe, or at least refuse to trade in, objective fact. Reality is a barrier to the successful implementation of Brexit and must therefore be ignored. Now, I have a dim view of this government but even I struggle to believe these accusations simply because they are so outrageous - though I fear that the "have cake and it it" memo corroborates them. I say this because we know that top decision-makers can be prone to at least five cognitive errors*. These are: overconfidence; wishful thinking; the confirmation bias; the planning fallacy; and the tendency to become detached from the reality of what’s happened on the ground. Any good decision-maker should bend over backwards to avoid these obvious errors. If Nick and Ian are remotely correct, however, our government is doing the precise opposite; it is creating a climate in which these errors are actually encouraged. In an uncertain world, it is impossible to take the best possible course of action. We should, however, be able to avoid the most egregious errors. The Tories seem however to be cultivating them. This is unforgivable.   For one thing, these errors have been well-known for years. Kenneth Boulding warned (pdf) back in 1965 of the danger of decision-makers “operating in purely imaginary worlds”. And the research on cognitive biases dates back at least as far as the 1970s and should by now be well-known to anyone who has even a passing interest in the social sciences. But even if ministers are pig-ignorant of intellectual history – which itself is unacceptable - they should at least be aware of the Chilcot report. It showed that the decision to go to war in Iraq was based in part upon errors such as wishful thinking and the confirmation bias. And it warned that positive thinking “can prevent ground truth from reaching senior ears”. Success – or even basic competence – requires that we learn from mistakes. This government, however, seems to be doing the opposite. Instead of learning Chilcot’s lessons, it seems desperate to repeat them. All this poses two questions. One is: how can people who supported Brexit for years or even decades be so appalling prepared for the process of doing so? But there’s a bigger question. The point of being a government minister is that you must take decisions. You should therefore at least know how to avoid the worst ones, and be acquainted with the basics of decision theory. But the government seems to fail even in this. Which poses the question: why the hell do they want power if they are unwilling to exercise it with even minimal competence? * Of course, there are many more. I’m confining myself to those that seem most relevant for now.29 Nov
South Korean President Forced To Step Down When People Find Out She is Involved In Satanic Rituals - Victurus Libertas — Dec 24, 2016 Half-a-million marched in Seoul on Christmas Eve, many in Santa Claus costumes. Click to enlarge According to LivingResistance, South Korean people are up in arms, after finding out the President is part of a satanic cult and is divulging top secret information to her lover, in exchange for favors and money. President Park Geun-hye. Click to enlarge According to sources, the female President of South Korea, Park Geun-hye, was having a relationship with another female named Choi Soon-sil.  Choi Soon-sil is apparently from a billionaire satanic cultist family and has ties to the Clintons, as most other billionaire cultists do.  As their relationship grew, Choi Soon-sil was given top clearance state secrets and million-dollar deals were made with her, at the expense of the South Korean people.  Choi would receive the president’s plan for governance, and ran her own “shadow cabinet” that would give comment on the presidential policy plans.  The net result was astonishing. It appears that Choi was involved in virtually every major policy initiative from the Park Geun-hye administration. Choi even received national security briefings and gave comments on Park’s Dresden speech- the most significant pronouncement of South Korea’s policy on North Korea. Park Geun-hye allowed Choi Soon-sil to advise her in many areas, including allowing her to channel demonic spirits through her body.  Park had a cable released by Wikileaks in which she says she believed there was “complete control over her body and soul.” The people of South Korea became enraged when they found out all of this information.  They began rioting, protesting, they filed for an impeachment and have demanded Park step down, to which she has agreed. This sounds like a very familiar story to me.  I see many similarities in Hillary Clinton sharing state secrets to her aide and female lover, Huma Abedin, who did not have appropriate clearance.  Some also believe Clinton does take part in black magic. Following six weeks of street protests, South Korean President Park Geun-hye was impeached Friday, by the nation’s National Assembly.  The impeachment vote required at least 28 of Park’s fellow Saenuri Party lawmakers to cross the aisle to make up the majority two-thirds of the 300-seat legislature. The final vote was 234 to 56 in favor of impeachment, according to Time. If Park leaves office early, an election must be held within 60 days. She would also lose presidential immunity from prosecution. Prosecutors have named Park as an accomplice in their investigation. Bloomberg suggests the fall of South Korea’s first female leader, and daughter of former dictator Park Chung-hee, marks another sign of the anti-establishment anger that fueled Brexit, brought Donald Trump to power and toppled Italian leader, Matteo Renzi. Protesters have likened Park’s allies to collaborators under dictators and called conglomerate heads “accomplices,” while a mayor who compares himself to Bernie Sanders has surged in opinion polls for the next president. Of course, this may be news to people in the United States, as our mainstream media has been relatively silent regarding this world issue.  If any of the MSM have mentioned it, they have conveniently left out the satanic cult aspect of the scandal-  probably because the exact SAME scandals are going on here, and they don’t dare bring that up. In fact, the New York Post did touch on the story, but called Choi’s father the leader of a “religious cult“… God forbid they call it what it is.  Here is the exact quote from the NewYorkPost: Choi has been close to Park since Choi’s father, the leader of a religious cult, gained Park’s trust by reportedly convincing her that he could communicate with her assassinated mother. Choi’s father denied this in a 1990 media interview. Source Protests in Seoul demand President Park Geun-hye resign. Click to enlarge01:55
London to get manned checkpoints for first time in 24 years amid MI5 security crack down - Laura Mowat — Daily Express Dec 24, 2016 Heavily armed officers carry semi-automatic SIG Carbine rifles, sniper rifles, shot guns, hand guns and tasers as well as extensive body armour will also soon be deployed in London. Click to enlarge A £5 MILLION ’ring of steel’ involving man power and tough new security measures will be introduced to the British capital, London. The proposals are intended to protect London’s finance district and its skyscrapers from a terrorist attack. MI5 and counter-terrorism police have proposed to install the manned checkpoints, rising street bollards and crash-proof barricades. The last time manned checkpoints were used was in 1992 following the IRA’s bombing of Baltic Exchange. When the IRA bombed the Baltic Exchange in April 1992, three people died and 91 people were injured. In 1993, the IRA also bombed Bishopsgate detonating an explosive in London’s financial district, killing one and injuring 44. A Corporation of London report said they “had identified that the area was highly sensitive to… a hostile vehicle-borne security threat”. Security across Europe is striving to beat terror in the wake of the Berlin Christmas market terror attack on Monday when Anis Amri ploughed into shoppers, killing 12 and injuring 49 people. The new proposed ring would border Liverpool Street, the Bank of England and Fenchurch Street, which is home to some of the council’s most renowned skyscrapers. Will Geddes, founder of International Corporate Protection, said: “Although we’ve seen of late ‘lo-fi type’ attacks, like the Berlin Christmas market where a lorry that was hijacked and driven into a crowded area, we cannot discount the type of attack that will include a large truck packed with explosives.” The new proposal could be fully implemented by 2022. Terrorism suspect Anis Amri crossed at least two borders this week despite an international manhunt  sparking fears that Europe’s open borders are not secure enough. Armed police on the Thames near the City of London financial district. Click to enlarge Source 01:55
German Politician Prevented Police Sharing Image of Christmas Market Attacker ‘to Prevent Racism’ - Victoria Friedman — Breibart.co.uk Dec 24, 2016 Police and emergency workers stand next to a crashed truck at the site of a Christmas market on Breitscheidplatz square near the fashionable Kurfuerstendamm avenue in the west of Berlin, Germany, December 19, 2016. Click to enlarge German police and judiciary have accused Hamburg Justice Minister Till Steffen of delaying the release of pictures of the Christmas market attacker Anis Amri because he was worried about provoking “racist” comments on Facebook. Green Party politician Steffen cited “privacy concerns” when he initially prevented law enforcers from releasing pictures of Anis Amri. However, it has been claimed by members of the judiciary and the police that Steffen, who is the head of the judicial authority in Hamburg, denied the release of images of Amri because he was concerned it would incite racial hatred. It is alleged that he only released images after a 12-hour delay following a call from German newspaper Bild. Joachim Lenders, Hamburg’s chief of police, told Bild: “It is incomprehensible to throw such a spanner in the works of investigators. Steffen is incompetent.” Parliamentary leader André Trepoll, who is a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, called “Scandalsenator” Steffen a “security risk” for delaying the search for the world’s most wanted man. Accusing the Hamburg justice minister of “fetishising” data protection, Trepoll  added: “Green data protection fetishism should not delay the public search for a terror suspect.” CDU judiciary spokesman Richard Seelmaeker called for a special meeting of the Justice Committee, stressing: “Anis Amri allegedly murdered twelve people, but instead of using all means necessary to search for him, Hamburg’s green justice senator was more concerned about the state of comments in a Facebook post – which hindered our police.” “If the allegations against Steffen are proven true, he can no longer hold the position of senator,” the CDU judicial expert added. Calls for his resignation were also made by the anti-mass migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. Dirk Nockemann, the party’s spokesman, said: “It is an incredible and scandalous process … [Steffen’s] concerns are unstable and far-fetched.” Amri was shot dead after he drew a weapon on an Italian police officer at a checkpoint in Milan on Friday.   Source 01:54
Yes Virginia, There is a Masonic Jewish Conspiracy - henrymakow.com — Dec 25, 2016 I am old enough to remember when Christmas was a joyous religious celebration of the birth of Christ and the Gospel of Love. The suppression of Christmas is a symptom of the cancer that infects mankind. We have been subverted by a satanic cult, the Illuminati, that is responsible for war, terror and cultural degradation in general. Society is  satanically possessed.  We can resist by celebrating Christmas more vigorously than ever. by Henry Makow PhD. — The Conspiracy is Against God ( from Dec.25, 2014) Every year, there is a little less Christ in Christmas, a little less Christian spirit. The spirit of giving now is confined to exchanging gifts. Scarcely is there a mention of Christian love. We can’t even say “Merry Christmas.” That might offend some people, Satanists perhaps. God is Love. Satanists aren’t big fans of Love. They have a lot of clout. This year (2016) it seems we have thrown in the towel and resigned ourselves to celebrating the “holidays.” There are fewer decorations and carols.  77% of Americans identify as Christians but it seems only minorities have rights. Only minorities can be “offended.” We don´t even hear the usual protests. It’s been a seamless transition. Christmas celebrations, once so intense and beautiful, have become a thing of the past. None of this is by accident. Incredible and bizarre as this sounds, a satanic cult, the Illuminati, rules the world. The Illuminati consist of  Cabalist Jews and their Freemason go-fers who are empowered by the central banking cartel, namely the Rothschilds, Warburgs, Rockefellers etc. Their aim is to translate their private monopoly over credit (currency) into a monopoly over everything similar to Communism. While they pay lip service to religion, they worship Lucifer. Their agents control the world’s media, education, business and politics. These agents may think they‘re only pursuing success, but success these days often literally means serving the devil. This conspiracy would not be possible without the active complicity and passive acquiescence, not to mention the venality and credulity of most Gentiles. Prisoners of their wealth, the Illuminati pretend to be moral while working to enslave humanity in a New World Order. The Protocols of Zion is their blueprint. The ruins of Hiroshima after the nuclear blast Hiroshima, Dresden, Auschwitz were sacrifices to their god Lucifer. They are responsible for the two World Wars, the Great Depression and the Cold War; Sept. 11, and the Iraq, Afghanistan, Syrian and Ukrainian wars.  Illuminati Jews (NeoCons) seem to be preparing a Third World War. They have to destroy the world because they can’t abide a world that isn’t cast in their image. Satanists are motivated by hatred of God and humanity. They turn good and evil on its head as way of spitting in God’s eye and serving Lucifer. They define man as an animal governed by base instincts and deny the existence of our soul and spiritual ideals. They acknowledge the existence of God but deliberately defy and displace Him. Their goal is to invert reality so that healthy is made to seem perverse; natural seem unnatural; beautiful seem ugly; and truth seem lies, and vice versa. Essentially these Satanists want to redefine reality according to their self interest and perversions. This is the cancer from which we suffer.  SATANISM EMPOWERED: THE NEW WORLD ORDER Continues … 01:50
Israel on defensive after landmark UN vote - AFP — Dec 24, 2016 Israel scrambled Saturday to contain the fallout from a UN Security Council vote to halt settlements in Palestinian territory after lashing out at US President Barack Obama over the “shameful” resolution. The council passed the measure Friday after the United States abstained, enabling the adoption of the first UN resolution since 1979 to condemn Israel over its settlement policy. By deciding not to veto the move, the US took a rare step that deeply angered Israel, which accused Obama of abandoning its closest Middle East ally in the waning days of his administration. The text was passed with support from all remaining members of the 15-member council, with applause breaking out in the chamber. The landmark vote came despite intense lobbying efforts by Israel and calls from US President-elect Donald Trump to block the text. While the resolution contains no sanctions, Israeli officials are concerned it could widen the possibility of prosecution at the International Criminal Court. They are also worried it could encourage some countries to impose sanctions against Israeli settlers and products produced in the settlements. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the resolution and criticised Obama in especially harsh language. “Israel rejects this shameful anti-Israel resolution at the UN and will not abide by its terms,” a statement from his office said. “The Obama administration not only failed to protect Israel against this gang-up at the UN, it colluded with it behind the scenes,” it said. “Israel looks forward to working with President-elect Trump and with all our friends in Congress, Republicans and Democrats alike, to negate the harmful effects of this absurd resolution.” On Saturday, a senior Israeli official who did not wish to be named said the American abstention at the UN had “revealed the true face of the Obama administration.” “Now we can understand what we have been dealing with for the past eight years,” he said. Trump reacted after the vote by promising change at the UN. “As to the UN, things will be different after Jan. 20th,” he tweeted referring to the date of his inauguration. – Threat to two-state solution – The US has traditionally served as Israel’s diplomatic shield, protecting it from resolutions it opposes. It is Israel’s most important ally, providing it with more than $3 billion each year in defence aid. That number will soon rise to $3.8 billion per year under a new decade-long pact, the biggest pledge of US military aid in history. But the Obama administration has grown increasingly frustrated with settlement building in the West Bank, which Israel has occupied for nearly 50 years. There have been growing warnings that settlement expansion is fast eroding the possibility of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the basis of years of negotiations. Settlements are built on land the Palestinians view as part of their future state and seen as illegal under international law. “We cannot stand in the way of this resolution as we seek to preserve a chance of attaining our longstanding objective of two states living side by side in peace and security,” said Samantha Power, the US ambassador to the UN. “The settlement problem has gotten so much worse that it is now putting at risk the very viability of that two-state solution.” Obama adviser Ben Rhodes said “we cannot simply have a two-state solution be a slogan,” but added that “we did not draft this resolution.” “We took the position that we did when it was put to a vote,” he said. Trump has signalled he is likely to be far more favourable to Israel. David Friedman, his nominee for ambassador to Israel, favours moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and has voiced support for settlement building. Some 430,000 Israeli settlers currently live in the West Bank and a further 200,000 Israelis live in annexed east Jerusalem, which Palestinians see as the capital of their future state. The resolution demands “Israel immediately and completely cease all settlement activities in the occupied Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem.” It says settlements have “no legal validity” and are “dangerously imperilling the viability of the two-state solution.” Friday’s vote was scheduled at the request of New Zealand, Malaysia, Senegal and Venezuela, which stepped in after Egypt put the draft resolution on hold. After the resolution passed, Israel recalled its ambassadors to Senegal and New Zealand for consultations. It has no diplomatic relations with Venezuela or Malaysia. A spokesman for Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas called the resolution a “big blow for Israeli policies”. The move was “an international and unanimous condemnation of settlements and strong support for the two-state solution,” said Nabil Abu Rudeina. Hamas, the Islamist movement that runs the Gaza Strip, also welcomed the vote. Source01:44
Aleppo: another false flag “Srebrenica,” perhaps barely, averted - Is it finally the demise of the “men and boys” mantra? by Stephen Karganovic — The Saker.is Dec 23, 2016 Well, so far at least. Shocking as it may appear in the midst of the rejoicing that the terrorist occupation of Eastern Aleppo and the agony of tens of thousands of its helpless inhabitants are finally over, accumulated evidence suggests that the vengeful Empire was (and possibly still is) entirely prepared to inflict a “Srebrenica” style mass catastrophe as its parting shot. Abundant political noise emanating from Western – mainly British – sources ahead of the downfall of the, until not long ago, seemingly impregnable terrorist stronghold in Aleppo suggests that an operational plan for a replay of Srebrenica was indeed hatched. It should have turned the military defeat of Western proxies into a resounding propaganda victory for their sponsors by staging in Aleppo a massive killing operation of civilians and blaming it on the Syrian government and its Russian allies. The direct attempt at the beginning of December to extend the lifespan of the Aleppo terrorist enclave by putting it under UN authority mirrored what successfully had been accomplished in Srebrenica in April of 1993. The presence of “peacekeepers” and “observers” in such situations (Kosovo, 1999, also comes to mind) lends itself perfectly to the infiltration of intelligence personnel, who set the stage for what is to follow. However, the attempt to negate the successful advance of the Syrian army and to ensure that a “protected” enemy enclave would be ensconced in its rear, to serve as a launching pad for military and propaganda operations (as was done with Srebrenica during the war in Bosnia), this time failed dismally. The geopolitical relationship of forces has changed significantly since 1993, as evidenced by the Russian and Chinese vetoes that frustrated this time the repetition of the Srebrenica template. But the imminent and unplanned fall of the Aleppo terrorist enclave still had to be compensated in a way that would create the required psychological preconditions for a Western “humanitarian intervention” to reverse the unfavorable outcome, in line with the R2P (Right to Protect) doctrine which has already been applied with lethal effect elsewhere. In the wake of the unsuccessful December 5 2016 Security Council Aleppo Resolution, which failed due to Russian and Chinese vetoes, Western propaganda machinery, as if on cue, went into high gear with the familiar and ominous rhetoric which pointed unmistakably at Srebrenica. Without any direct, verifiable evidence field from the field whatsoever, and reenacting uncreatively the threadbare Srebrenica scenario of 1995, Western government and media sources began asserting in unison that Syrian authorities in Aleppo were arresting “hundreds of men and boys.” Predictably, and also following the Srebrenica template, the abducted “men and boys” were allegedly disappearing in unknown directions. The UN High commissioner for human rights Rupert Colville dutifully set the stage for the moves to follow on December 9 by issuing a harrowing report of rampant improprieties in the domain under his supervision, with the Syrian government squarely to blame. After unctuously expressing “grave concern about the safety of civilians in Aleppo,” Colville pointedly stressed “very worrying allegations that hundreds of men have gone missing after crossing into Government-controlled areas.” For good measure, and to drive the Srebrenica point home, Colville added “reports that men were being separated from women and children.” And in case anybody missed the hint, the UN Report also conveniently recalled that “given the terrible record of arbitrary detention, torture and enforced disappearances by the Syrian Government, we are of course deeply concerned about the fate of these individuals.” With just the right dossier thus helpfully furnished by the UN human rights department, Britain’s UN ambassador Matthew Rycroft sprang into action. After a heartrending account of the situation in Aleppo, backed by not a shred of verifiable evidence and based entirely on an inversion of reality derived from Western mass media disinformation, Rycroft made his point: “And yet, despite all of this, it could still get worse. Hundreds of men and boys are disappearing as they flee eastern Aleppo, taken by the regime, their fate unknown.” On December 9, BBC issued its summary of the Aleppo allegations for international MSM dissemination and consumption. Under the headline “Aleppo battle: UN says hundreds of men missing”, the BBC World Service gave its imprimatur to the unsubstantiated allegation that “hundreds of men appear to have gone missing after crossing from rebel-held areas of Aleppo into government territory, UN officials say.” The “debate” in the British parliament on December 13 was very likely conceived to solidify the psychologically prepared public opinion behind the “humanitarian intervention” option in Syria, whenever the signal was given. The main speaker, former Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, dramatically reminded that the “tragedy in Aleppo did not occur in a vacuum” but was the result of a “vacuum in Western and British leadership.” That was another familiar Srebrenica refrain, concocted to emotionally shame the public for tolerating the supposed inaction of its political leadership and to prod them into acquiescing to a foreign intervention that had, in fact, been carefully planned long in advance. (Facts recently emerging about advance preparations for the Libyan debacle should remove any doubts in that regard.) Foreign Secretary Boris Johnston expanded on the theme: “Dictator Assad was allowed to perpetrate horrible crimes together with his allies, Russia and Iran.” MP Andrew Mitchell solemnly reminded all present that Great Britain was a signatory to the international commitment to act “for the protection of threatened populations” and prevent “humanitarian catastrophes like Srebrenica and Rwanda.” The key, Pavlovian phrase which Mitchell ultimately used gave the game away as to what the point was of the entire exercise: “I was in Srebrenica two years ago,” Mitchell said, “and I know what happened there – the same thing that is now going on in Aleppo, the mass killing of men and boys by forces loyal to the Syrian regime.” As the Aleppo disinformation campaign was running slightly out of steam, or at least it was judged that the public was not taking the bait, the BBC made a last-ditch effort to again push all the right emotional buttons, which in the past had worked like a charm. On December 15, under the scolding headline “Srebrenica survivors on Aleppo ‘No lessons learned’”, it once again reminded its audience of the need for action in Aleppo. An alleged Srebrenica survivor, Hasan, was trotted out to reprimand the British and Western public for their visible lack of enthusiasm: “The people in Aleppo feel the same way we did,” Hasan says. “We felt like being abandoned and not belonging to this humanity,” he says. “Not being treated like a human. We keep repeating ‘Never again’ but when it comes to action, we don’t do anything to prevent those things from happening. “It seems the world hasn’t learned anything. We are living in this modern world with technology and we don’t have any excuses to say ‘We didn’t know’.” As of this moment, a false flag operation in Syria, potentially dwarfing Srebrenica in 1995 and the one in Goutha in 2013, when Western proxy terrorists gassed over one thousand innocent Syrian civilians in the hope of provoking a NATO “humanitarian intervention” to save them from defeat, thankfully has not occurred. The evidence, however, is rather clear that the plan was (and may still be) on the drawing board. A concerted attempt was made (and it failed) to set up an operational infrastructure on the ground by inserting intelligence personnel in the guise of UN staff and by formalizing terrorist control over the East Aleppo enclave, by means including a ludicrous offer of monetary reward to President Assad if he agreed to such a scheme. At the same time, as we have seen, the propaganda groundwork was intensely being laid. It is possible that the Russians and Syrians have learned the lesson of Srebrenica and that this has enabled them to successfully parry Western moves to recreate on the ground conditions that would make a false flag operation of a similar or greater order of magnitude operationally possible. The staging of a crime of immense proportions would obviously be required in order to mobilize the support of international public opinion for an intervention robust enough to reverse the momentum which currently favors Assad and the Syrian government. The false flag crime would also have to be of sufficient enormity, and the false leads pointing away from the real perpetrators convincing enough, for the Russians to be at least temporarily stunned and put on the defensive, long enough for Western (NATO) forces and their local proxies to regain the initiative. So far, as we have seen, it has been all talk and little action. Inshallah it remain that way, as many innocent Muslim lives will thus have been spared. But when dealing with “folks” – to use the favorite term of an outgoing Western statesman – who do not have the habit of giving up, lowering one’s guard is an unaffordable luxury. This is a situation that bears careful and continuous watching. The pious perpetrators of Srebrenica do not take Srebrenica’s name in vain. The presstitutes lied when they reported contrary to the weapons inspectors in Iraq that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. They lied about fake evidence of yellowcake and aluminum tubes. They lied about Saddam Hussein’s al-Qaeda connections. They lied about Iranian nukes despite the unanimous report of all US intelligence agencies that Iran had abandoned interest in nuclear weapons years ago. The presstitutes lied about Assad using chemical weapons against the Syrian people. They lied about Gadaffi. They lied about Russian invasion of Ukraine. They lied about the cause of the Russian/Georgian conflict. They lied about the Sochi Olympics. Now the presstitutes are claiming that Russian interference determined the outcome of the US presidential election and the Brexit vote. (By Paul Craig Roberts, December 18, 2016) I doubt that this is a solely al-Qaeda induced incident. It seems to me that the certain U.S. forces (aka the CIA) are trying to prolong the removal of al-Qaeda from east-Aleppo for their own purpose… There are several “western” groups that want to keep the evacuation stalled to continue their anti-Syrian, anti-Russian and anti-Iran agenda… The French president Hollande, despised by his people and with an approval rating between 4 and 6%, is calling for another UN Security Council vote over east-Aleppo. Such a vote, demanding UN observers for the evacuation, is intended to hold it up. Observers would need days to be in place and would lack any reasonable protection. (Moon of Alabama, December 18, 2016, http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46069.htm) Aleppo Propaganda Campaign Exposed — Rebel Activists Caught Posing as Civilians Under Siege (http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=144290) Moon of Alabama on the use of Information Warfare by US in Syria: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46081.htm Christopher Hitchens, “Daily Mail,” December 19, 2016: In the past few days we have been bombarded with colourful reports of events in eastern Aleppo, written or transmitted by people in Beirut (180 miles away and in another country), or even London (2,105 miles away and in another world). There have, we are told, been massacres of women and children, people have been burned alive. The sources for these reports are so-called ‘activists’. Who are they? As far as I know, there was not one single staff reporter for any Western news organisation in eastern Aleppo last week. Not one.   Source24 Dec
Former UK ambassador to Syria accuses Foreign Office of lying about the country’s civil war - Joe Watts — The Independent Dec 23, 2026 The ex-British Ambassador to Syria has accused the Foreign Office of lying over the country’s civil war and said British policy there has “made the situation worse”. Peter Ford said the Whitehall department led by Boris Johnson and Philip Hammond before him had “gotten Syria wrong every step of the way”, and was now falsely claiming Bashar Assad could not control the country when he is “well on the way to doing so”. It comes after the Syrian army reported that it had taken full control of Aleppo following weeks of heavy bombing and fighting in and around the city. Mr Ford, who was Britain’s ambassador to Syria from 1999 to 2003, claimed that the UK had misread and misrepresented the situation in the country since the start of the conflict. He said: “The British Foreign Office to which I used to belong, I’m sorry to say has gotten Syria wrong every step of the way. “They told us at the beginning that Assad’s demise was imminent. They told us he’d be gone by Christmas. They didn’t say which Christmas, so they could still be proven correct. “But then they told us that the opposition was dominated by these so-called moderates. That proved not to be the case and now they’re telling us another big lie – that Assad can’t control the rest of the country. Well I’ve got news for them – he’s well on the way to doing so.” Mr Ford said that when the conflict started the UK should have either “put everything, including our own forces on to the battlefield, or if in our judgement – as it would have been my judgement – that was not realistic, refrain from encouraging the opposition to mount a doomed campaign.” He claimed the UK’s tough talk on one hand, followed by little action to back rebels in Syria on the other had preceded a rebellion that had “only led to hundreds of thousands of civilians being maimed and killed”. “We have made the situation worse.” He added: “It was eminently foreseeable to anyone who was not intoxicated with wishful thinking.” In a statement last night the Syrian army said it had “returned security to Aleppo” and called it a “crushing blow” for rebels. The International Committee of the Red Cross confirmed “all civilians who wished to be evacuated have been, as well as the wounded and fighters”. Mr Johnson said after a meeting in Paris earlier this month that there could be no military solution to the war in Syria, while the UK has consistently taken the line that Assad cannot be a part of Syria’s future. A Foreign Office spokesman said: “The UK continues to believe in a Syrian-led political settlement. A political solution and transition away from Assad is the only way to end the suffering of the Syrian people. The Assad regime has the blood of hundreds of thousands on its hands. There is no way it can unite and bring stability to Syria. “The UK has pledged more than £2.3bn to support those affected by the Syrian conflict and sought to reduce the suffering with every diplomatic lever at our command.” Source24 Dec
The Hanukkah Hoax and Hatred for Christmas - Michael Hoffman — Revisionist Review Dec 2016 Christmas is a problematic time for Orthodox rabbis and their followers since it celebrates the birth of the Jesus they despise. The rabbinic term for Christmas Eve is Nittel Nacht, a night they regard as accursed. There is a rabbinic tradition of refraining from marital relations on Christmas Eve (Nitei Gavriel Minhagei Nittel 5:1). According to Rabbi Baal Shem Tov, the founder of Hasidic Judaism, to conceive a child on Christmas Eve will result in the birth of either an apostate or a pimp (Sefer Baal Shem Tov Vol. 2:43a). The most prominent rabbinic custom commonly observed on Christmas Eve is to abstain from studying the “Torah” (i.e. Talmud). There is an anxiety that one’s Talmudic study may unwillingly serve as merit for Jesus’ soul, corresponding to the rabbinic teaching that studying the Talmud gives respite to the souls of all the wicked. Refraining from Talmud study on Christmas Eve also serves as a sign of mourning, corresponding to the rabbinic belief that Jesus “was a false messiah who deceived Israel, worshipped a brick, practiced the magic he learned in Egypt” (Babylonian Talmud, Sanhedrin 107b); and “was born of a harlot who conceived while she was niddah (menstruating)” (Babylonian Talmud, Kallah 51a). There is a Talmudic custom of eating garlic on Christmas Eve. The reason for this is attributed to the odor of the garlic, which is reputed to repel the demonic soul of Jesus, which is supposed to wander on Christmas Eve (cf. Nitei Gavriel Minhagei Nittel). Another rabbinic custom in Orthodox Judaism is to make toilet paper on Christmas Eve as an insult to Jesus, a practice made popular among Hasidic Judaics by the Chiddushei Harim (cf. Reiach Hasade 1:17). Contrast these grostesque “Nittel Nacht” mockeries with the heavenly story of the Holy Family in Bethlehem: the radiant Virgin and Christ child, humble shepherds, and angels offering glad tidings of peace on earth to men of good will. Frankly, there is no comparison between Talmudic Judaism and true Christianity, and those who attempt to assert that Christianity has ecumenical similarities with the religion of the Talmud are more deluded than the degraded practitioners of Nittel Nacht themselves. This year Christmas Eve falls on a Saturday which is also Hanukkah. Pray for the Talmudists engaged in their hate-filled anti-Christian bigotry, which the corporate media will not report or expose. Rabbinic Hanukkah: A man-made tradition of self-worship Hanukkah is a Talmudic holiday that is a burlesque of the Biblical account of the Maccabees. Hanukkah is celebrated  cursorily  in  the  Israeli state and observed in the United States as competition for Christmas, in order to symbolically assert the supremacy of Klal Yisroel (the Judaic people) over the rest of humanity. The secret of Hanukkah was disclosed by Rabbi Levi Isaac ben Meir of Berdichev (renowned as “the Kedushat Levi” after his eponymous treatise), a prominent eighteenth century halachic (legal) authority. Rabbi Meir revealed a secret known only to a few: that lighting the Hanukkah menorah does not commemorate the victory of the Biblical Maccabees. The arcane traditional doctrine of Chazal (i.e. the “sages” of the Talmud) concerning Hanukkah is that it commemorates God’s “delight in the Jewish people” themselves, and their vainglorious celebrations. The secret teaching of Hanukkah is that God supposedly provided a mythical eight days of oil not as a means of facilitating a victory, or of guaranteeing the successful completion of a sacred duty, but rather as a sign (halacha osah mitzvah), of His continuing adoration of the Judaic people, which all the rest of us are supposed to emulate, as we do indeed whenever a menorah is erected where a Nativity scene is banned. Hanukkah is Talmudism’s principal means for pushing the religion of the Talmud into the civic life of our nation in December, at a time when Christianity and its symbols, such as Nativity scenes, are increasingly marginalized or banned completely from the public square, in favor of menorah lightings, “Sanny Claws” and the collective jingle of cash registers. The lower Jesus, Mary and Joseph are made to descend during the Christmas season, the higher the Menorah and the Judaic self-worship it represents rises. The Hanukkah menorah is not a symbol of a Biblical occurrence. Hanukkah is a man-made Talmudic tradition intended for self-idolatry. It represents the victory not of the Maccabees over the pagans, but of the selective memory of the rabbis over history. Hanukkah is an enduring commitment to the dark racial and religious conceit of the rabbinic Zionists, disguised as holiday light and cheer for all, and as such it is a kind of abbreviation for and summation of the strange god of self-adulation which is the central idol of the votaries of Orthodox Judaism, and the central violation of the First Commandment of Exodus 20:3: לא יהיה־לך אלהים אחרים על־פני. Christians are the true sons and daughters of Abraham who celebrate in the public square our gratitude to Jesus, the Messiah of Israel and Sovereign of all Creation. Rejoice! “For unto you is a born a Savior, which is Christ the Lord.” Michael Hoffman is the author of the textbook, Judaism Discovered: A Study of the Anti-Biblical Religion of Racism, Self-Worship, Superstition and Deceit; and the editor of The Talmud Tested and Traditions of the Jews. We depend on the charity of truth seekers for the continuation of our work   Source24 Dec
Brendan Cox to deliver Channel 4 alternative Christmas message - Introduction — Dec 23, 2016 Brendan and Jo Cox outside number 10 Downing Street. Click to enlarge Like so much from the corporate media, Brendan Cox’s Christmas message will be far from an “alternative” to the traditional seasonal message. That’s because the late Jo Cox’s husband is not entirely the anti-establishment figure he pretends to be. Despite being what can be politely termed a professional do-gooder, Brendan Cox is also an integral part of the establishment. For a while he served as a Special Advisor to Prime Minister Gordon Brown while his wife, Jo Cox, served as an advisor to the former prime minister’s wife. As such both Brendan and Jo Cox would have been frequent visitors to Downing Street, the nominal heart of the British establishment. Both held positions that were open to only a select few but which were no doubt very well paid. Brendan Cox also worked as a senior executive at the Save the Children Fund. Or at least he did until he was forced to resign his position after several female members of the charity group complained about his “inappropriate behaviour“. Now it looks as if Brendan Cox is being groomed to take over where his wife left off. Here it’s worth recalling that while still an MP Jo Cox called the Syrian White Helmets “heroes” and campaigned for them to be awarded the Nobel Prize. Now it transpires that not only are the White Helmets being funded to the tune of ten of millions by Britain and the U.S., they’ve also been linked to Al-Nusra and Al Qaeda. In fact the Syrian White Helmets were founded in 2013 by James Le Mesurier, a former British military intelligence officer linked to Blackwater, to operate in rebel-controlled Syria. They didn’t operate in government controlled areas and there are reliable reports that behind their charitable facade they were involved in terrorist activity (here, here and here) So in effect Jo Cox was doing PR work for what with hindsight is now emerging as a Western backed terror group. This is not speculation. She actually campaigned for the White Helmets to be awarded the Nobel Prize and now the same supposedly humanitarian group is being linked with terror. She wanted the Noble Prize awarded to a group founded by a former intelligence officer and linked to terror. Was Jo Cox duped? Did her ideals get the better of her common sense? Or was she actually part of the deception? As is so often the case, the powers that be set up an “alternative” narrative so that they can control both sides in a debate. We would suggest that this was Jo Cox’s function and why her husband will deliver Channel 4’s “alternative” Christmas message. The best way to control political discourse is for the powers that be to control not only governments but those oppose to them. This allows them to stage manage political debate and confers complete control over the political process, often without anyone even realising it. Ed. Brendan Cox to deliver Channel 4 alternative Christmas message Press Association — Dec 23, 2016 The husband of murdered MP Jo Cox will deliver this year’s alternative Christmas message – in which he calls for an end to the “rise of hatred”. Brendan Cox will touch on the “awful year for our family” in the Channel 4 broadcast on December 25. But he will also tell viewers that now is the “moment to reach out to somebody that might disagree with us”. Mrs Cox was shot and stabbed to death by neo-Nazi Thomas Mair in her Batley and Spen constituency days before June’s EU referendum. The 41-year-old, the mother of two young children, was an outspoken critic of strategic policy in Syria and a humanitarian who campaigned for women’s rights around the world. Brendan Cox, the widowed husband of MP Jo Cox, will deliver Channel 4's Alternative Christmas message this year https://t.co/mgzI87ZmFC — Channel 4 Press (@C4Press) December 23, 2016 Her husband of seven years recorded the tribute on the converted Dutch barge which the family called home. Continues … Comment — Dec 23, 2016 The converted barge that the Cox’s “called home” was only one of their homes. While she was still an MP Jo Cox divided her time between the barge, moored at an expensive berth on the Thames, and her constituency home in Yorkshire. Ed.24 Dec
Leontyne Price: the first African-American singer to perform opera on television - Mary Violet Leontyne Price is one of the best-known African-American opera singers. She was born on 10 February 1927 in Mississippi, to James Anthony Price and Kate Baker Price.Both of her parents sang in the church choir where one of her grandparents worked as a minister. As a girl, Leontyne showed her love for music and sang in the church choir too.When she was five years old, Leontyne took piano lessons and after just one year of practicing she gave her first public performance. In 1937, she started her education at Oak Park Vocational High School where she sang in the high school choir and was the main pianist for the school concerts. Upon graduating, she received an award for outstanding ability in music. Leontyne Price in 1951After graduating from Oak Park Vocational High School in 1944, Leontyne entered the College of Education and Industrial Arts in Wilberforce, Ohio. Her primary intention was to become a music teacher, but the principal of the college advised her to change her major and concentrate on voice.After her graduation in 1948, Leontyne won a four-year scholarship at the Juilliard School of Music in New York. She was guided by her teacher Florence Ward Kimball. In the last year of her education at Julliard, Leontyne performed Mistress Ford in the student production of the opera Falstaff. Her beautiful soprano voice was noticed by Virgil Thompson who invited her to make her Broadway debut and sing the role of St. Cecelia in opera, Four Saints in Three Acts. This was her first professional experience.Soon after, she was chosen to perform as Bess in George Gershwin’s Porgy and Bess. This role gave her a chance to travel around Europe and the US. The show was performed in Germany, France, England, Russia and many other states. The success of the show gained Leontyne international recognition. Price from Porgy and Bess 1953In 1955, Leontyne sang the leading voice in Puccini’s Tosca on NBC television and became the first African-American singer to perform opera on television. She continued to give TV performance for the next two years and in 1957 she made her opera house debut at the San Francisco Opera House. She played the role of Madame Lidoine in Dialogues of the Carmelites. Leontyne Price – Prima Donna Vol. 5 Great Soprano Arias From Handel To Britten. Photo CreditAfter performing in Aida, Leontyne became one of the most popular lyric sopranos in the country. In 1961, she made her debut at the Metropolitan Opera. She played the role of Leonora in Verdi’s  II Trovatore. Her flawless performance won her a standing ovation of an incredible forty-two minutes. Later, she also played in  Madama Butterfly, Don Giovanni, Liu in Turandot, and perhaps most notably in Antony and Cleopatra.Her musical talent won her many awards, including Musician of the Year in 1961, the Presidential Freedom Award in 1962, and the Italian Award of Merit in 1964. Donna Zapola, soprano, works with Leontyne Price. Photo CreditDuring the 1970s, Leontyne performed less frequently. In 1985, she gave her final performance at the Lincoln Center, playing the role of Aida, her favorite one. Leontyne also made numerous recordings which won her many Grammy Awards.Read another story from us: Hazel Scott: A classical and jazz musician who became one of America’s premier pianistsAfter her retirement, she continued to give recitals. Today, she is known as the first Afro-American opera singer who achieved stardom at home and on the international stage.04:00
Grace Kelly: the Queen of Monaco and Hollywood’s leady lady - Grace Kelly is without a doubt the most prolific and certainly most praised Hollywood actress of the 1950s, earning the title of “the Queen of Hollywood” for her looks, performances, and grace.The pure beauty and true talent that Grace Kelly possessed brought her kindness to the forefront, hence the respect and success she enjoyed all through her career. Critics have cited Grace Kelly as one of the most influential and iconic film personalities in the whole of American cinematic history. This is perhaps due to the fact that the amount of success and fame Grace Kelly had attained over a short Hollywood career of a mere seven years was an unprecedented feat. From 1950 to 1956, she had appeared in just 11 Hollywood features, and in almost all of them, the spotlight stayed on her mesmerizing performance and beauty. For a much younger audience who may not have known Grace Kelly during her prime, the fact that Kelly was ranked Number 13 in the American Film Institute’s Top 100 list of all time female stars is a testament to her legacy. Grace Kelly in 1956 Photo Credit  Kelly in High Noon (1951), her first major film role Photo Credit  Grace Kelly arriving at the 28th annual Academy Awards, 1956. Photo Credit  Grace Kelly with Ernest Borgnine at the 28th annual Academy Awards, 1956 . Photo CreditKelly didn’t restrict herself to the cinema screen; according to some critics, her best performing art platform was television. She performed in over a hundred TV plays, in addition to a number of theatrical performances. The title of ‘classic Hitchcock blonde’ brought a different kind of light to Kelly’s already established demeanor. While writing about Grace Kelly’s lasting legacy, one writer cited her as “the most elegant glamor girl of American Cinema.” Some of the most iconic still photography of the 50s and 60s features Grace Kelly as a model, which is another amazing feat in and of itself.Grace Kelly was born into a fairly influential and quite affluent household in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on 12 November 1929. She was born with the beauty and talent that was to become the face of Hollywood cinema a few years later. She attended the prestigious catholic girls’ school Raven Hill Academy, and from a very early age she was found modelling for some social events along with her sisters and mother. When, in 1942, East Falls Old Academy Players was looking for a lead role in its famous Don’t Feed the Animals, Grace Kelly fit the bill perfectly and was cast, even though she was only 12 at the time. By 1947, when she graduated from the esteemed and socially prominent institution on Walnut Lane in northwest Philadelphia, she had already gained ample experience in dancing and acting in a number of school plays. Grace Kelly in the television series MGM Parade, 1956 . Photo Credit  Kelly in To Catch a Thief (1955) Photo Credit   MGM publicity still, unknown date Photo Credit  Paramount publicity still for The Country Girl, 1954 . Photo Credit  Grace of Monaco (1972) . Photo CreditKelly’s big break came during her performance in Colorado’s Elitch Gardens, when prolific producer Stanley Kramer approached her, and offered Kelly a role in Fred Zinnemann’s western classic High Noon alongside Gary Cooper. Kelly gladly accepted the offer, only to later find out that the film was to be shot under a tight schedule of 28 days and in the scorching hot weather of the California desert. Cinematic historians suggest that the role in High Noon pretty much set the stage for of all Kelly’s subsequent appearances on screen and truly embedded her image in the memories of viewers.In High Noon, Kelly was performing the role of a young Quaker bride engaged to a Stoic Marshall played by Gary Cooper, who was thirty years her senior at the time. When High Noon was finally released in the summer of 1952, it broke nearly all previous records and earned four Academy Awards, and over time has been categorized as one of the best western films in cinematic history. Despite the enormous success of High Noon, some critics took a very hard line on the character of Grace Kelly, suggesting that the presence of Cooper and his character overshadowed Kelly’s performance. Princess Grace with son Albert at Madrid-Barajas Airport, 1964 Photo Credit  Princess Grace with daughter Stéphanie in Monaco, 1969. Photo Credit  Grace Kelly on the cover of Modern Screen Magazine, 1955 Photo Credit  Kelly in a promotional photograph for Rear Window (1954) Photo CreditGrace Kelly retired from her acting career at the age of 26. She married Prince Rainier and began her prolific duties and life as the Princess of Monaco.Read another story from us: The Life and Legacy of Lillian Gish – The first lady of American cinema and a legendary Silent Era performerKelly had three children, Albert, Caroline, and Stephanie, whom she absolutely loved and devoted her life towards. Grace Kelly died at the age of 53 on 14th September 1982, when she suffered a stroke while driving and her car crashed, causing fatal injuries.04:00
Star Wars: the famous actors who auditioned to play Han Solo - The Star Wars universe features a whole cast of memorable characters, and the macho smuggler Han Solo is probably the coolest of them all.He and his furry co-pilot Chewbacca accidentally became involved in the Rebel Alliance’s struggle against the Galactic Empire in the original trilogy, and proved to be the crucial assets in the destruction of the Empire’s super-powerful Death Star. Harrison Ford reprised the role of Han for Star Wars: The Force Awakens in 2015. Photo CreditAlthough it’s pretty hard to imagine someone other than Harrison Ford playing Solo, there were several other actors who almost got the role. One of them was Kurt Russell, whose later films proved that he was perfect for the roles of gritty and goofy macho characters. Today, Russell’s audition tape can be found online, but he obviously failed to capture Lucas’ vision for the character. Russell in a 1974 publicity photo.Star Wars was being filmed at the same time as Rocky, the film that launched Sylvester Stallone to stardom. Stallone actually auditioned for the role of Han Solo, but Lucas didn’t like him.Stallone ended up leaving the audition while concluding that he would look stupid while dressed in a space suit and wielding a ray gun. His appearance as Han Solo would definitely make the franchise way funnier, but not necessarily in a good way. Stallone at the Ken Norton / Duane Bobick boxing match in 1977.The actor who was almost handed the role of Han Solo was none other than Al Pacino, the influential and charismatic actor best known for The Godfather films. Al Pacino in the play The Basic Training of Pavlo Hummel (1971).The Independent reports that “Al Pacino has revealed that he turned down the role of Han Solo in Star Wars at a time when he was ‘offered everything’”. Pacino was unfamiliar with the world of science fiction and turned down the role because he didn’t understand the script and failed to see its potential. It’s probably for the best, because although he would definitely be a solid Solo he seems better suited for the roles of vicious earthly gangsters.Robert Englund auditioned to play Solo before appearing in Nightmare on Elm Street as the notorious Freddy Kruger, but he was rejected for being too old. However, he was friends with Mark Hamill at the time, and he convinced Hamill to audition for the part of Luke Skywalker, so he definitely had a considerable impact on the course of the franchise. Englund in the 2014 Fan Expo Canada. Photo CreditRead another Star Wars Story from us: The character of Chewbacca was inspired by George Lucas’ tall hairy Alaskan malamute, IndianaToday, almost 40 years after A New Hope was released and at a time when the Star Wars franchise continues to be the central part of the sci-fi canon, it’s hard to imagine Han Solo being played by anyone but Harrison Ford, whose name will forever be associated with the galaxy’s favorite scumbag.04:00
Very impressive documentation and physical experiments – the Wright Brothers test gliders - Orville and Wilbur Wright were American brothers who were inventors and aviation pioneers. They are generally acknowledged as conceiving, constructing, and flying the world’s first successful airplane.On the 17th of December 1903, just a little ways from Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, they made the first coordinated, prolonged flight of a powered craft that was heavier-than-air. In 1904-1905 the brothers advanced their flying apparatus into the first practical fixed-wing aircraft. Although they were not the only ones to build and fly experimental aircraft, the Wright brothers were the first to invent mechanisms that made fixed-wing powered flight achievable. A glide with the double rudder machine moving to the left, north slope of Big Kill Devil Hill Photo CreditOtto Lilienthal had made ‘whirling arm’ aerodynamic tests on a few different wing shapes, and the Wrights incorrectly presumed the statistics would pertain to their wings, which were shaped differently. The Wrights undertook a huge measure forward and performed basic wind tunnel tests on 200 wings of many shapes and designs. They followed this with detailed tests on 38 of them. According to biographer Fred Howard, the tests, at the time, were the most critical and prolific flight experiments ever organized in so little time with so scarce equipment and with so little cost.A significant discovery was the advantage of longer, narrower wings, which meant a larger aspect ratio. To put it in aeronautical terms – wingspan divided by chord – the wing’s front-to-back dimension. These tests proved that such shapes provided much better lift-to-drag relation than the broad wings the brothers had tried up to that point. Left view of Wilbur gliding, Kitty Hawk Lifesaving Station and Weather Bureau buildings in distance Photo Credit The Wrights designed their 1902 glider with this knowledge and a more accurate Smeaton pressure coefficient number. Using another crucial discovery from the wind tunnel testing, they made the airfoil shape flat, which reduced the curvature of the wings. The wings of the 1901 glider had significantly greater curvature, which turned out to be a highly inefficient characteristic the Wrights duplicated directly from Lilienthal. Totally confident in their new wind tunnel outcomes and now creating their designs on their own calculations, the Wrights abandoned Lilienthal’s data.Being characteristically cautious, the brothers first flew the 1902 glider as an unmanned heavier-than-air craft (a kite), the same as they had done with their two previous editions. The glider produced the expected lift; rewarding the brother’s wind tunnel work. The glider also had a new mechanical component, which the brothers hoped would eliminate problems turning – a fixed, vertical rudder at the rear. Orville making right turn, showing warping of wings, hill visible in front of him Photo Credit By 1902 they realized that lateral control of a fixed wing aircraft created ‘differential drag force’ at the wingtips. Greater lift at one end of the wing also increased the drag force, which slowed that end of the wing, making the glider swivel or ‘yaw’ so the nose seemed to steer away from the turn. This was also how the tailless glider behaved in 1901.Continue to page 204:00
The American Plains Indians’ Warbonnets – A symbol of Honour and Respect for the Native Americans - Feathered headdress, or war bonnets as it is famously referred to has earned a place in history as being synonymous to American Plains Indian traditions.The war bonnets of American Indians were not just a colorful display of traditions; it was rather a symbol of esteem and great respect given to a certain individual by his tribe or spiritual tribal leaders. These headdresses were originally worn into tribal skirmishes or large battles, however, with time their significance has been considerably reduced to a mere display of ceremonial remembrance, of what once was equivalent to a crown in the Indian culture.  Headdress Photo Credit    Warbonnets worn Photo Credit  Detail of Plains headdress. Photo Credit  Exhibit in the Ethnological Museum, Berlin, Germany.Exhibit in the Ethnological Museum, Berlin, Germany. Photo CreditThe highest marks of respect in the Native American tribes, even in today’s communities, it is intended to give the presentation of the feathers of a bald eagle, a bird which has become synonymous to Indian warriors and patriotism to the geography.These feathers were not simply bought or attained; each of these feathers had to be earned by selfless acts of community service or by exhibiting exemplary gallantry in the face of battle. Feather headdress; Crow, c. 1880; North America department, Ethnological Museum, Berlin, Germany (Harvey collection, 1905) Photo CreditIn some cases, tribal chieftains or spiritual elders would gift these feathers to an esteemed gentleman of the community as a result of their services towards the overall wellbeing of their people; these services may include political or diplomatic achievements such as crucial agreements or peace deals. The honor associated with these eagle feathers was such that a soldier fighting in the frontlines all through his life could only end up with two or in rare cases three feathers as gratitude to his courage and galore. Some warriors would then incorporate these earned feathers into a headdress, which they would then wear with great pride and above all immense responsibility. Traditionally though most elaborate headdresses were only exclusively reserved for a chosen few individuals; chosen by the spiritual or political leaders of the tribes upon whom the entire community would reach a consensus. In the collection of the Children’s Museum of Indianapolis Photo Credit   Muscogee war bonnet Photo CreditEagle feathers represent the highest form of honor and respect in the traditions of Plains Indians; these feathers make the most part of the war bonnets worn by almost all the major figures in the Indian culture. Other Plains-style bonnet types are flaring eagle feather bonnet, hornet bonnet, and fluttering feather bonnet.In the horned bonnets, a buckskin skull cap is used as the base frame; cow horns and shaved bison were also used sometimes, horsehair that is dyed and own feathers are also used under the main skull cap. The flaring eagle bonnet, on the other hand, consists of tail feathers from golden eagle pinned in the buckskin or a felt crown; the flaring look, however, comes from the slits that are made at the base of the skull or the crown. Fluttering feather bonnet is considered both unusual of all the bonnet types and also rare of all kinds. In a fluttering feather bonnet, the feathers from a hawk, owl, or a golden eagle are loosely connected to a buckskin cap or a felt to make it hang on the sides. National Cowboy & Western Heritage Museum ( Oklahoma City ). Cree trailer headdress ( ca. 1940 ), made of red wool cloth, ribbon, eagle feathers, plume feathers, glass beats, raw hide and felt head Photo Credit  War Bonnet and Trailer Photo CreditOne of the most Influential warriors of Cheyenne who fought gallantly in the Indian wars of the 1860s was Roman Nose, who was famous for wearing an elaborately decorated and illustrious war bonnet that supposedly protected him during battles.Read another story from us:Dreamcatchers: One of the most fascinating traditions of Native AmericansThe legends said that on several occasions Roman Nose wore his bonnet to battle and rode back and forth in front of the United States Army soldiers, escaping unscathed despite being fired upon by several men.04:00
The Fallen Astronaut memorial on the Moon – The first sculpture beyond our planet - Humanity is still in the early stages of space exploration, and the road to modern-day advancements hasn’t been smooth. Many brave astronauts and cosmonauts have lost their lives in the effort to take our species into space, and ensure we remember their names. Up until today, some of our biggest space exploration achievements have been the Apollo mission and first lunar landings. Those courageous people who went to the Moon were aware of the sacrifice their deceased colleagues made before them, and they surely didn’t forget about them.There isn’t a greater way to pay respect to fallen astronauts than carrying their memory into space, out there where they strived to go. This is exactly what the crew of Apollo 15 did in 1971. They placed a specially-made sculpture and a commemorative plaque on the surface of the Moon. It became the first artistical object out of our planet. Edward White, on of the astronauts that died in the Apollo 1 fireThe sculpture named “Fallen Astronaut” is an 8.5-centimeter (3.3 in) aluminum figure depicting an astronaut in a spacesuit. The statue was designed and made by a Belgian artist called Paul Van Hoeydonck after he had a meeting with the crew of Apollo 15 in Cape Kennedy. The idea came during a dinner in a Cocoa Beach (now a La Quinta) restaurant. Hoeydonck was introduced to astronauts David Scott and Jim Irwin, the mission’s Lunar Module pilot. During the meal, Scott and Hoyendonck shared their interest in archaeology and Mayan mythology. A close up of the sculptureAfter Hoyendonck compared the astronauts with medieval knights (the astronauts of the Holy Grail), Scott, who was aware of his work decided that they should “get him a sculpture on the moon!” Hoyendonck was excited and immediately went back to Belgium to work on a prototype.  Van Hoeydonck / Photo creditIn an interview for Slate magazine Hoeydonck explained what was required for the sculpture:“The sculpture had to be small, and I was told by Scott that it was not allowed to be any race—not black, not red—not male, not female, and able to resist extreme cold and hot. So I had to design a thing like that.”The final prototype and the sculpture that was going to be sent to the moon were made of aluminum and hand-crafted by Hoyendonck himself. Aluminium was chosen because of its light weight. The whole thing was kept in secret, and even NASA didn’t know about it.Continue to page 204:00
Fashion on the ration: how WWII and the rationing of clothes affected fashion and street style - Many of you have surely seen photographs offering a snapshot into the time when clothes had to be rationed. Last year, in commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, the Imperial War Museum held an exhibition entitled ‘Fashion on the Ration: 1940s Street Style’, which displayed surviving examples of clothes from the 1940s.The severity of wartime conditions led to controls on the amount of new clothes that people could purchase, as well as the amount of fabric that clothing manufacturers could utilize. Trousers had to be worn by women working in wartime service as a sensible requirement. The US government seized all silk supplies, which forced the hosiery manufacturing business to change completely to nylon. Then, in March 1942, the government requisitioned all nylon fabric for parachutes and other wartime uses. This left only cotton and rayon stockings, which were quite unpopular. The industry immediately recommended that stores increase their hosiery advertising budget, fearing that not wearing stockings would become a trend. When nylon stockings reappeared in the retail shops, there were ‘nylon riots’ as customers actually fought during the arrival of the first deliveries. Jacqmar dress ‘Happy Landings’ Photo Credit  Women walk down a London street during the Second World War in 1941. Photo Credit  A handbag that doubled up as a respirator carrier. Photo CreditThe British Board of Trade issued regulations for ‘utility clothes’ in 1941, implementing a system of ‘points’, as clothing was strictly rationed in Great Britain. In America, the War Production Board specified restrictions for every item of women’s clothing by issuing its Regulation L85 on 8 March 1942. Clothing manufacturers had to use more red dye in their clothing because the military used so much green and brown dye.Laddered stockings were of a particular concern in England; women had no choice but to either paint them on (including the back seam) or to join the WRNS, who were issuing them to enlisted personnel, as a clever aid for recruitment. A set of Countess Mountbatten’s underwear made from a silk map given to her by a boyfriend in the Royal Air Force. Photo Credit  A utility dress made of printed rayon at the exhibition. Photo Credit  An ambulance worker in Kennington, London applies her lipstick, 1940. Photo Credit  Bridesmaid dress made from parachute silk (1945) Photo CreditDuring these years, skirts were worn at knee-length by most women, with modestly-cut blouses and broad-shouldered jackets. Popular magazines and clothing design companies counseled women on how to use men’s suits and reproduce them into stylish outfits since the men were in military gear and the clothing would otherwise just sit around gathering dust. One style that became popular during this period was the Eisenhower jackets.Influenced by the military, these jackets were bloused at the upper body and chest area and formed to fit the waist with a belt. A combination of well-designed blouses and skillfully tailored suits became the distinguishing wardrobe of the working woman, the young society women, and college girls. Conserving fabric was vital, this wedding dress was worn by 15 different women. Photo Credit  ‘Just the thing to pull on in a hurry’ a siren suit. Photo CreditThe current fashion in Europe was no longer available to women in the US because of the war. Chinese and American Indian-based designs from the hat manufacturers failed to become popular causing one milliner to lament in 1941, ‘how different it was when Paris was the fountainhead of style.’ As with the hosiery manufacturers, the hat makers feared that the bare head would become popular.Read another story from our fashion files: Fashion During the Great Depression- the impact of the political upheaval on the fashion industryWorking quickly, they introduced new designs, such as the ‘winged victory turbans’ and the ‘Commando Cap’ in the auspicious color of ‘victory gold’. Quite often overlooked by American women, American designers of ready-to-wear clothing became more popular as women began to wear their styles. The American designers contributed in other ways too; using fiber content in their clothing, making improvements to sizing standards, and using labels that had instructions on how to care for the clothing.04:00
Carousels emerged from early jousting traditions in Europe and the Middle East - It is not by accident that carousels usually depict horse-riding. This is thanks to a sport that knights once played back in medieval times, which has helped develop the carousel as we know it today.It all emerged from the early jousting tradition in Europe, as well as the Middle East. Jousting grew popular in Europe at the time of the Crusades; however, records show that it was also noticeable in earlier Byzantine and Arab traditions. In Italy, the word would be garosselo, and it meant “little battle”, and resembled the Spanish word for “war” which is guerra. On the Merry-go-round at Deepwater Races Deepwater, NSW, c. 1910, photo creditGarosselo was a much-used word among European knights to describe the oriental game, a combat preparation exercise that was practised by Turkish and Arabian horsemen throughout the 12th century. Namely, the Knights would gallop in a circle while tossing balls from one to another. It was an activity that required a great deal of skillfulness and horsemanship. A battle of the Second Crusade (illustration of William of Tyre’s Histoire d’Outremer, 1337), photo creditEssentially, this was tough training for the cavalry units, as it enabled riders to strengthen for actual combat. They would swing their swords at the mock enemies to prepare themselves for battle.By the 17th century, the jousting game had already evolved. Horse-riders who practised it would no longer use the ball; instead, they would have to spear rings that were hanging from poles and rip them off. This practice became very popular in Italy and France. A french old-fashioned merry-go-round, with stairs, two floors, and its cash-cabin, In La Rochelle, France, photo creditSoon it was so popular that was no longer uncommon to see ordinary people playing it. Consequently, carousel games spread across Europe and became a real fairground attraction.It would be in Paris, at the Place du Carrousel, where the very first make-believe carousel was set up with wooden horses that children could use and ride on. Henceforth, carousels were always a notable part of various fairs and gatherings. Carousel in Bobbejaanland, Belgium, photo creditMany families and workers would dedicate themselves to the craftsmanship of carousels. This was set to be an emerging business at the time. Workers would craft the parts for the carousel during the winter months and then would tour regions during the warmer times of the year, making some earnings from their attendance to fairs. Some notable carousel makers included Bayol in France, as well as Heyn in Germany.In its early form, the carousel had no particular platform where it was set, but the animals would just hang from chains and fly out from the centrifugal force of the spinning mechanism. The spinning mechanism often started off with the help of real animal that walked in a circle, or from the carousel operators pulling on a rope. A 1909 horse by Marcus Illions, in the flamboyant Coney Island style. On the B&B Carousel, which has been housed on the Coney Island Boardwalk near the Parachute Jump since 2013. photo creditToday, carousel are known by a variety of names. In England, it’s a roundabout or merry-go-round. In the USA, alternative names include galloper, horseabout, flying horses, and jumpers.Read another story from us: The remarkable Dance Organs: Regarded as the finest machines used in dance halls & traveling showsAs theme parks continue to develop nowadays, some carousels moved away from the original idea of having a horse as a mount. Hence, many far-fetched alternatives appeared, such as pigs, dragons, unicorns and airplanes.04:00
When Patrick Stewart signed the contract for “Star Trek: The Next Generation”, he believed the TV show will quickly fail - “Oftentimes, life really is a frontier, a mission to explore strange new worlds, and boldly go where no man has gone before.” These are the very words that actor Patrick Stewart says during the intro to each Star Trek: The Next Generation episode, yet they also describe the man himself.Coming on board the Star Trek series had certainly been a bold new world for the British actor – it really was a place where he had not gone before, and where he certainly managed to achieve something beyond excellence.When Patrick Stewart signed the contract for Star Trek: The Next Generation, he and his agent believed that the new TV show would quickly fail, and it was expected that Patrick would return to his regular life on the stage in London after generating some income.The “unknown British Shakespearean actor”Patrick Stewart started out his career as an actor when he became a member of the Royal Shakespeare Company in 1966, following a period with Manchester’s Library Theater.He remained with this company all the way to 1982. As an associate artist and collaborator for this company, Patrick would regularly take Shakespearean roles. A more prominent one was his appearance as Horatio, alongside Ian Richardson as Hamlet, in an episode of an old TV series called “The Civilization“. The star of Patrick Stewart on the Hollywood Walk of Fame, photo creditAnother notable moment was his Broadway debut, where he took on the role of Snout in A Midsummer Night’s Dream. Apparently, Shakespearean roles were a specialty for Patrick Stewart, but he rarely played a leading role.The audiences could still see him as Vladimir Lenin in Fall of Eagles or as Sejanus in I, Claudius. He also starred as the character Gurney Halleck in David Lynch’s version of Dune in 1984. Captain Jean-Luc Picard in his quarter on the USS Enterprise-D, photo creditIn general, Stewart preferred classical theater to other genres – hence the roles he used to take on were natural to him. But in 1987, he accepted a role that would change everything. He agreed to come to Hollywood and work on the revival of the old and iconic science-fiction television show, Star Trek.As per somebody who had been completely out of touch with science fiction, and for whom “Star Trek” were only two words from some far-fetched reality, Stewart was skeptical in accepting a role as the lead character.It was Robert H. Justman, the producer who was to work on the new Star Trek series, who noticed Stewart reading at a literary event at the University of California in Los Angeles, and who immediately had gotten the impression that Patrick would fit perfectly for what Gene Roddenberry imagined to be the main character of the show, Captain Jean-Luc Picard. Justman turned out to be very right indeed.Continue to page 204:00
Piggly Wiggly – The first true self-service grocery store - Clarence Saunders was the founder of the Piggly Wiggly grocery stores. He opened the first store in 1916 in Memphis, Tennessee and expanded the business into 1,300 stores by 1923. By opening the first self-service grocery store, Saunders changed the way we buy groceries today.Before Piggly Wiggly was opened, customers were not allowed to select the products by themselves. They headed to the counter and told the clerks what they needed. Then, the clerk would gather the products from the shelves and give them to the customer. The original Piggly Wiggly Store, Memphis, TennesseeThis way of selling products had some disadvantages. The prices of the products were not clear and in that way clerks would often charge customers more than they should.People waited in long lines because the clerks needed more time to serve the customers. Saunders thought that there must be another way in which he could make this process faster and easier for the customers and for the retailers. That is how he came out with the idea of self-service grocery.Weeks before the grand opening of the first Piggly Wiggly self-service store, people could read many advertisements in the newspapers and see billboards about the new grocery store that was about to change the shopping forever. Piggly Wiggly, Thief River Falls, Minnesota. Photo CreditOn September 6, 1916, many people came out for the opening of a new grocery store at 79 Jefferson Avenue in Memphis, Tennessee. It stocked more than 1,000 products, which was four times more than a typical market.Inside the store, customers were free to walk through the aisles, check out the merchandise, and pick the products by themselves. Instead of ordering sugar or flour by weight, to be measured by the clerk, they found pre-bagged sugar and flour in neat stacks. Refrigerator cases were used in order to keep some products like milk and butter fresher. Tags were hung above every product showing the prices clearly and the customers could compare the prices of different brands.Piggly Wiggly offered lower prices which reflected just a 14 percent margin above the manufacturers’ costs. Piggly Wiggly 1930. Photo CreditAlso, Piggly Wiggly were the first to introduce uniformed employees, shopping baskets, turnstiles, and printed receipts. After selecting their goods, shoppers went to the counter where they received a printed receipt after paying.Besides Clarence’s strong believe that this method will be successful and many people would follow the rules, other retailers ridiculed the self-service and thought it was a joke. This model was confusing for some customers as they couldn’t easily find the products they were searching for. However, most of the shoppers were happy to do the work of shopping. Historical marker near the site of the first Piggly Wiggly store in Memphis, Tennessee. Photo CreditSaunders expanded his business and by 1932, there were more than 1,200 Piggly Wiggly stores across America, but his ride could not go any further than 1932 when Saunders was forced out of the company in a battle with Wall Street investors.Here is another interesting read from us: Japan is obsessed with Kentucky Fried Chicken on Christmas; Some people even order months in advance to avoid linesHowever, Piggly Wiggly will be remembered as the first true self-service grocery which paved the way for the modern supermarket.04:00
The Radical Jesus: How Would the Baby in a Manger Fare in the American Police State? - By John Whitehead, the Rutherford Institute. “Jesus is too much for us. The church’s later treatment of the gospels is one long effort to rescue Jesus from ‘extremism.’”—author Gary Wills, What Jesus Meant Jesus was good. He was caring. He had powerful, profound things to say—things that would change how we view people, alter government policies and change the world. He went around helping the poor. And when confronted by those in authority, he did not shy away from speaking truth to power. Jesus was born into a police state not unlike the growing menace of the American police state. But what if Jesus, the revered preacher, teacher, radical and prophet, had been born 2,000 years later? How would Jesus’ life have been different had he be born and raised in the American police state? Consider the following if you will. The Christmas narrative of a baby born in a manger is a familiar one. The Roman Empire, a police state in its own right, had ordered that a census be conducted. Joseph and his pregnant wife Mary traveled to the little town of Bethlehem so that they could be counted. There being no room for the couple at any of the inns, they stayed in a stable, where Mary gave birth to a baby boy. That boy, Jesus, would grow up to undermine the political and religious establishment of his day and was eventually crucified as a warning to others not to challenge the powers-that-be. However, had Jesus been born in the year 2016… Rather than traveling to Bethlehem for a census, Jesus’ parents would have been mailed a 28-page American Community Survey, a mandatory government questionnaire documenting their habits, household inhabitants, work schedule, how many toilets are in your home, etc. The penalty for not responding to this invasive survey can go as high as $5,000. Instead of being born in a manger, Jesus might have been born at home. Rather than wise men and shepherds bringing gifts, however, the baby’s parents might have been forced to ward off visits from state social workers intent on prosecuting them for the home birth. One couple in Washington had all three of their children removed after social services objected to the two youngest being birthed in an unassisted home delivery. Had Jesus been born in a hospital, his blood and DNA would have been taken without his parents’ knowledge or consent and entered into a government biobank. While most states require newborn screening, a growing number are holding onto that genetic material long-term for research, analysis and purposes yet to be disclosed. Then again, had his parents been undocumented immigrants, they and the newborn baby might have been shuffled to a profit-driven, private prison for illegals where they would have been turned into cheap, forced laborers for corporations such as Starbucks, Microsoft, Walmart, and Victoria’s Secret. There’s quite a lot of money to be made from imprisoning immigrants, especially when taxpayers are footing the bill. From the time he was old enough to attend school, Jesus would have been drilled in lessons of compliance and obedience to government authorities, while learning little about his own rights. Had he been daring enough to speak out against injustice while still in school, he might have found himself tasered or beaten by a school resource officer, or at the very least suspended under a school zero tolerance policy that punishes minor infractions as harshly as more serious offenses. Had Jesus disappeared for a few hours let alone days as a 12-year-old, his parents would have been handcuffed, arrested and jailed for parental negligence. Parents across the country have been arrested for far less “offenses” such as allowing their children to walk to the park unaccompanied and play in their front yard alone. Rather than disappearing from the history books from his early teenaged years to adulthood, Jesus’ movements and personal data—including his biometrics—would have been documented, tracked, monitored and filed by governmental agencies and corporations such as Google and Microsoft. Incredibly, 95 percent of school districts share their student records with outside companies that are contracted to manage data, which they then use to market products to us. From the moment Jesus made contact with an “extremist” such as John the Baptist, he would have been flagged for surveillance because of his association with a prominent activist, peaceful or otherwise. Since 9/11, the FBI has actively carried out surveillance and intelligence-gathering operations on a broad range of activist groups, from animal rights groups to poverty relief, anti-war groups and other such “extremist” organizations. Jesus’ anti-government views would certainly have resulted in him being labeled a domestic extremist. Law enforcement agencies are being trained to recognize signs of anti-government extremism during interactions with potential extremists who share a “belief in the approaching collapse of government and the economy.” While traveling from community to community, Jesus might have been reported to government officials as “suspicious” under the Department of Homeland Security’s “See Something, Say Something” programs. Many states, including New York, are providing individuals with phone apps that allow them to take photos of suspicious activity and report them to their state Intelligence Center, where they are reviewed and forwarded to law-enforcement agencies. Rather than being permitted to live as an itinerant preacher, Jesus might have found himself threatened with arrest for daring to live off the grid or sleeping outside. In fact, the number of cities that have resorted to criminalizing homelessness by enacting bans on camping, sleeping in vehicles, loitering and begging in public has doubled. Viewed by the government as a dissident and potential threat to its power, Jesus might have had government spies planted among his followers to monitor his activities, report on his movements, and entrap him into breaking the law. Such Judases today—called informants—often receive hefty paychecks from the government for their treachery. Had Jesus used the internet to spread his radical message of peace and love, he might have found his blog posts infiltrated by government spies attempting to undermine his integrity, discredit him or plant incriminating information online about him. At the very least, he would have had his website hacked and his email monitored. Had Jesus attempted to feed large crowds of people, he would have been threatened with arrest for violating various ordinances prohibiting the distribution of food without a permit. Florida officials arrested a 90-year-old man for feeding the homeless on a public beach. Had Jesus spoken publicly about his 40 days in the desert and his conversations with the devil, he might have been labeled mentally ill and detained in a psych ward against his will for a mandatory involuntary psychiatric hold with no access to family or friends. One Virginia man was arrested, strip searched, handcuffed to a table, diagnosed as having “mental health issues,” and locked up for five days in a mental health facility against his will apparently because of his slurred speech and unsteady gait. Without a doubt, had Jesus attempted to overturn tables in a Jewish temple and rage against the materialism of religious institutions, he would have been charged with a hate crime. Currently, 45 states and the federal government have hate crime laws on the books. Rather than having armed guards capture Jesus in a public place, government officials would have ordered that a SWAT team carry out a raid on Jesus and his followers, complete with flash-bang grenades and military equipment. There are upwards of 80,000 such SWAT team raids carried out every year, many on unsuspecting Americans who have no defense against such government invaders, even when such raids are done in error. Instead of being detained by Roman guards, Jesus might have been made to “disappear” into a secret government detention center where he would have been interrogated, tortured and subjected to all manner of abuses. Chicago police “disappeared” more than 7,000 people into a secret, off-the-books interrogation warehouse at Homan Square. Charged with treason and labeled a domestic terrorist, Jesus might have been sentenced to a life-term in a private prison where he would have been forced to provide slave labor for corporations or put to death by way of the electric chair or a lethal mixture of drugs. Either way, whether Jesus had been born in our modern age or his own, he still would have died at the hands of a police state. Indeed, as I show in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, what Jesus and other activists suffered in their day is happening to those who choose to speak truth to power today. Thus, we are faced with a choice: remain silent in the face of evil or speak out against it. As Nobel Prize-winning author Albert Camus proclaimed: Perhaps we cannot prevent this world from being a world in which children are tortured. But we can reduce the number of tortured children. And if you don’t help us, who else in the world can help us do this? The Radical Jesus: How Would the Baby in a Manger Fare in the American Police State? was originally published on Washington's Blog00:42
‘Fake news’ Christmas 1968: 60 Minutes interviewed King family to demonize new civil rights leadership, pretend to care. ‘Fake news’ today: Obama, Bushes, Clintons, corporate media ongoingly ignore King Family civil trial verdict, overwhelming evidence that US government assassinated Martin - 11 minutes of the King family’s first Christmas without Martin here (embedding disabled by request of CBS). Please note the question and tone demonizing new civil rights leaders. King Family civil trial evidence proving US government assassinated Martin Dr. King was assassinated by the .01% to stop his “Occupy DC” plan for the summer of 1968. This is a legal fact; the verdict of the King Family Trial against the US government. This, of course, was ignored by corporate media and never spoken of by the .01% in politics today when they “praise” Dr. King’s life, including US Presidents every January on Martin’s holiday. Read this for the full story (you owe it to Dr. King to know the full truth); the trial evidence agreed as comprehensively valid by the jury includes: US 111th Military Intelligence Group were at Dr. King’s location during the assassination. 20th Special Forces Group had an 8-man sniper team at the assassination location on that day. Usual Memphis Police special body guards were advised they “weren’t needed” on the day of the assassination. Regular and constant police protection for Dr. King was removed from protecting Dr. King an hour before the assassination. Military Intelligence set-up photographers on a roof of a fire station with a clear view to Dr. King’s balcony. Dr. King’s room was changed from a secure 1st-floor room to an exposed balcony room. Memphis police ordered the scene where multiple witnesses reported as the source of shooting cut down of their bushes that would have hid a sniper. Along with sanitizing a crime scene, police abandoned investigative procedure to interview witnesses who lived by the scene of the shooting. The rifle Mr. Ray delivered was not matched to the bullet that killed Dr. King, and was not sighted to accurately shoot. Corporate media lies to this day so the 99.99% do not know the .01% killed Dr. King. How Mr. Gandhi and Dr. King saw their civic educational challenge against official ‘fake news’ “One thing we have endeavoured to observe most scrupulously, namely, never to depart from the strictest facts and, in dealing with the difficult questions that have arisen during the year, we hope that we have used the utmost moderation possible under the circumstances. Our duty is very simple and plain. We want to serve the community, and in our own humble way to serve the Empire. We believe in the righteousness of the cause, which it is our privilege to espouse. We have an abiding faith in the mercy of the Almighty God, and we have firm faith in the British Constitution. That being so, we should fail in our duty if we wrote anything with a view to hurt. Facts we would always place before our readers, whether they are palatable or not, and it is by placing them constantly before the public in their nakedness that the misunderstanding… can be removed.” –  Mohandas K. Gandhi, Indian Opinion (1 October 1903) *** “‘A time comes when silence is betrayal.’ That time has come for us… The truth of these words is beyond doubt but the mission to which they call us is a most difficult one. Even when pressed by the demands of inner truth, men do not easily assume the task of opposing their government’s policy, especially in time of war. Nor does the human spirit move without great difficulty against all the apathy of conformist thought within one’s own bosom and in the surrounding world.” – Dr. Martin Luther King, “Beyond Vietnam: A Time to Break Silence.” Dr. King’s 2-minute message to you (full 1967 speech to end the Vietnam War): CIA admits to US Senate they create ‘fake news’ with 400 agents embedded in corporate media FisherOfMen’s revealing 14-minute video, beginning with CIA Director Colby’s testimony to the US Senate for the 1975 Church Committee admitting the CIA directs corporate media how to lie to the American public: As We the People journey closer to the core of what and who the .01% are within an easily-documented rogue state US empire, one component exposed is criminally-complicit corporate media for propaganda. The 2016 “jump the shark” election ‘coverage’ (and here) had many Americans jolted awake, with follow-up .01% attack that alternative media documenting lying corporate media is “fake news.” The .01% must lie to cover their assets, of course, valued in the tens of trillions looted and hidden in off-shore tax havens (and here to reclaim that loot). The .01% assassinate those who challenge their power. Fake News ‘covers’ crimes of US government assassinations of President Kennedy, Robert Kennedy, Martin King 3-minute video of Dan Rather’s fake news from November 25, 1963 to sell the lie that President Kennedy’s fatal head shot caused “violent forward motion” opposite to the fact his head was violently hit to cause backward motion (hat tip What Really Happened): This is part of easily documented history of US rogue state assassinations of President Kennedy, Robert Kennedy (and here) when he was poised to win the 1968 presidency, Martin King when he was poised to “Occupy DC” with a million people in the summer of ’68 until the Vietnam War was ended with those funds redirected to end domestic poverty, and ~100 other assassinations for political purposes. Multiple points of evidence demonstrates that Bush Sr. planned to assassinate Reagan. This is ongoing .01% business: Roman historians documented their tragic-comedy decline from a republic to empire, with vicious infighting assassinating ~22 emperors. ‘We the People’s’ responsibility to demand arrests for OBVIOUS crimes ‘covered’ by fake news We the People‘s choice is to either: Demand .01% arrests for OBVIOUS crimes centered in ongoing lie-started illegal Wars of Aggression, bankster looting in the tens of trillions, and constant lying, OR Submit to psychopathic dictatorship (literal dictates) of a rogue state empire as their work animals. The facts allow no softer frame such as, “Trust in leadership to intelligently guide America for security and economic recovery.” Please see for yourself the crimes committed with your tax dollars and under our flag: People around the world view the US as the greatest threat to peace; voted three times more dangerous than any other country. The data confirm this conclusion: Since WW2, Earth has had 248 armed conflicts. The US started 201 of them. These US-started armed attacks have killed ~30 million and counting; 90% of these deaths are innocent children, the elderly and ordinary working civilian women and men. The US has war-murdered more than Hitler’s Nazis. Lie-started and Orwellian-illegal Wars of Aggression is all the evidence necessary for US military to refuse all war orders (there are no lawful orders for unlawful war), and for officers to arrest those who issue them. This argument extends to all in US law enforcement agencies for war-related crimes of treason, murders and injuries to US military lied-into illegal Wars of Aggression, and .01% military looting last reported at $6.5 trillion. As a professional academic, the most accurate description of the US is rogue state illegal empire. As I explain in hypothetical conversations with George Washington (here, here), the US citizen position seems insufficient to stop the empire without Emperor’s New Clothes recognition among US military and law enforcement that the wars they “serve” are not even close to lawful, and the exact type of armed attacks that US treaties after two world wars were meant to end forever. And again, we now know from official US government documentation that all “reasons” for current US wars were known to false as they were told. There is no responsible action from any informed other than to assert the OBVIOUS: The wars are illegal and must be ended. Those who orchestrated these wars must be put under arrest. Related to looting trillions, there are dozens of related crimes hiding the US rogue state empire that must be revealed and ended. This opens the brighter future we all know is possible from the pure bullshit we now receive under this empire. The Crimes The US is a literal rogue state empire led by neocolonial looting liars. The history is uncontested and taught to anyone taking comprehensive courses. If anyone has any refutations of this professional academic factual claim for any of this easy-to-read and documented content, please provide it. US ongoing lie-started and Orwellian-illegal Wars of Aggression require all US military and government to refuse all war orders because there are no lawful orders for obviously unlawful wars. Officers are required to arrest those who issue obviously unlawful orders. And again, those of us working for this area of justice are aware of zero attempts to refute this with, “War law states (a, b, c), so the wars are legal because (d, e, f).” All we receive is easy-to-reveal bullshit. When Americans are told an election is defined by touching a computer screen without a countable receipt that can be verified, they are being told a criminal lie to allow election fraud. This is self-evident, but Princeton, Stanford, and the President of the American Statistical Association are among the leaders pointing to the obvious (and here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here). Again, no professional would/can argue an election is legitimate when there is nothing for anyone to count. And, duh, corporate media are criminally complicit through constant lies of omission and commission to “cover” all these crimes. Historic tragic-comic empire is only possible through such straight-face lying, making our Emperor’s New Clothes analogy perfectly chosen. The top three benefits each of monetary reform and public banking total ~$1,000,000 for the average American household, and would be received nearly instantly. Please read that twice. Now look to verify for yourself. Demanding arrests as the required and obvious public response rather than ‘voting’ for more disaster: The categories of crime include: Wars of Aggression (the worst crime a nation can commit). Likely treason for lying to US military, ordering unlawful attack and invasions of foreign lands, and causing thousands of US military deaths. Crimes Against Humanity for ongoing intentional policy of poverty that’s killed over 400 million human beings just since 1995 (~75% children; more deaths than from all wars in Earth’s recorded history). Tens of trillions in looting, including $6.5 trillion just reported by the US Department of “Defense” as “lost.” ** Note: I make all factual assertions as a National Board Certified Teacher of US Government, Economics, and History, with all economics factual claims receiving zero refutation since I began writing in 2008 among Advanced Placement Macroeconomics teachers on our discussion board, public audiences of these articles, and international conferences. I invite readers to empower their civic voices with the strongest comprehensive facts most important to building a brighter future. I challenge professionals, academics, and citizens to add their voices for the benefit of all Earth’s inhabitants. ** Carl Herman is a National Board Certified Teacher of US Government, Economics, and History; also credentialed in Mathematics. He worked with both US political parties over 18 years and two UN Summits with the citizen’s lobby, RESULTS, for US domestic and foreign policy to end poverty. He can be reached at Carl_Herman@post.harvard.edu Note: Examiner.com has blocked public access to my articles on their site (and from other whistleblowers), so some links in my previous work are blocked. If you’d like to search for those articles other sites may have republished, use words from the article title within the blocked link. Or, go to http://archive.org/web/, paste the expired link into the box, click “Browse history,” then click onto the screenshots of that page for each time it was screen-shot and uploaded to webarchive. I’ll update as “hobby time” allows; including my earliest work from 2009 to 2011 (blocked author pages: here, here).   ‘Fake news’ Christmas 1968: 60 Minutes interviewed King family to demonize new civil rights leadership, pretend to care. ‘Fake news’ today: Obama, Bushes, Clintons, corporate media ongoingly ignore King Family civil trial verdict, overwhelming evidence that US government assassinated Martin was originally published on Washington's Blog24 Dec
‘It’s a Wonderful Lie’: 9-minute ‘It’s a Wonderful Life’ analysis of Federal Reserve fraud to call debt-creation as ‘money supply;’ with OBVIOUS solutions worth $1,000,000 per average US household whenever ‘We the People’ are willing to look, learn, speak-up - hat tip: What Really Happened David Knight of InfoWars’ sharp nine minutes: It’s a Wonderful Life is a seasonal classic reminding We the People of our ongoing engagement with a .01% class using the public as work animals (“cattle” in the story). The story’s protagonist, George Bailey, embraces spiritual insight to continue literal “good Faith” effort for his community to not become slum-renters to parasitic antagonist, Henry Potter. The following data easily prove that “work animals” for a .01% parasitic class neither overstates nor understates the following data, with ~$1,000,000 in benefits for the average US household with reforms easily demonstrated for anyone with the intellectual integrity and moral courage to look. Synchronicity note: the house used in the film to demonstrate the powerful benefits of affordable home ownership opposed to slum rentership is three houses behind where my family used to live. Just one benefit of reforms is if states had their own bank, a 5% mortgage and 5% credit card would abundantly pay for all state taxes. With this one data point, wouldn’t a prudent citizen conclude “a wonderful lie” is a correct title for .01% interests to NOT inform us of this option, as well as terms like parasite, work animal, and that this .01% class are literal asset-holes? For a “holiday present” more valuable than any other for all our communities, please apply your attention to the following objective and independently verifiable facts. Data, discussion: The top three benefits each of monetary reform and public banking total ~$1,000,000 for the average American household, and would be received nearly instantly. Fed Chair Janet Yellen publicly acknowledges monetary reform as described below, but continues a history of criminal fraud in her lawful fiduciary responsibility to truthfully provide what you’re about to read. The data below include evidence of a .01% oligarchy criminally looting tens of trillions of our dollars. Monetary reform is the creation of debt-free money by government for the direct payment of public goods and services. Creating money as a positive number is an obvious move from our existing Robber Baron-era system of only creating debt owed to privately-owned banks (a negative number) as what we use for money. Our Orwellian “non-monetary supply” of adding negative numbers forever causes today’s tragic-comic increasing and unpayable total debt. You learned these mechanics of positive and negative numbers in middle school, and already have the education and life experience to conclude with Emperor’s New Clothes absolute certainty that accelerating total debt is the opposite of having money. As a National Board Certified and Advanced Placement Macroeconomics teacher, I affirm this is also exactly what is taught to all economics students. The public benefits of reversing this creature of Robber Barons are game-changing and near-instant. We the People must demand these, as .01% oligarchs have no safe way to do so without admission of literal criminal fraud by claiming that debt is its opposite of money. The top 3 game-changing benefits of monetary reform: We pay the national debt in proportion to removing private banks’ ability to create what we use for money as debt in order to prevent inflation. We retire national debt forever. We fully fund infrastructure that returns more economic output than investment cost for triple upgrades: the best infrastructure we can imagine, up to full-employment, and lower overall costs. We stop the ongoing Robber Barons who McKinsey’s Chief Economist documents having ~$30 TRILLION in tax havens, and the Fed finding the US top seven banks creating shell companies to hide $10 trillion. This amount is about 30 times needed to end all global poverty, which has killed more people since 1995 than all wars and violence in all human history. Public banking creates at-cost and in-house credit to pay for public goods and services without the expense and for-profit interest of selling debt-securities. North Dakota has a public bank for at-cost credit that results in it being the only state with annual increasing surpluses rather than deficits. Top 3 game-changing benefits of public banking: a state-owned bank could abundantly fund all state programs and eliminate all taxes with just a 5% mortgage and credit card. a state-owned bank could create in-house and at-cost credit to fund infrastructure. This cuts nominal costs in half because, as you know, selling debt securities typically doubles the cost. For example, where I live we’re still dismantling the old Bay Bridge in NoCal from the upgrade that cost $6 billion, but the debt-service costs will add another $6 billion when it’s all paid. CAFRs (Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports) stash “rainy day” funds no longer required with a credit line from a public bank. In addition, the so-called “retirement funds” currently deliver net returns of just a few percent on good years, and negative returns on bad years (here, here). California’s ~14,000 various government entities’ CAFRs have a sampled-data total estimate of $8 trillion in surplus taxpayer assets ($650,000 non-disclosed assets per household, among California’s ~12.5 million households). $1,000,000 of benefits per US household: California’s CAFR data of ~$650,000 of assets per household is evidence of huge cash assets of similar magnitude in every state. Paying the US national debt of ~$18 trillion saves ~$180,000 per household. Ending state taxes in California to pay a budget of ~$170 billion saves each household ~$15,000, with similar savings in every state. ~$30,000 per household savings annually: the American public would no longer pay over $400 billion every year for national debt interest payments (because almost 30% of the debt is intra-governmental transfers, this is a savings of ~$300 billion/year). If lending is run at a non-profit rate or at nominal interest returned to the American public (for infrastructure, schools, fire and police protection, etc.) rather than profiting the banks, the savings to the US public is conservatively $2 trillion (1). If the US Federal government increased the money supply by 3% a year to keep up with population increase and economic growth, we could spend an additional $500 billion yearly into public programs, or refund it as a public dividend (2). This savings would allow us to simplify or eliminate the income tax (3). The estimated savings of eliminating the income tax with all its complexity, loopholes, and evasion is $250 billion/year (4). The total benefits for monetary reform are conservatively over three trillion dollars every year to the American public. Three trillion is $3,000,000,000,000. This saves the ~100 million US households an average of $30,000 every year. Another way to calculate the savings is to figure those amounts per $50,000 annual household income (for example, if your household earns $100,000/year, you save ~$60,000 every year with these reforms). This savings represents a 60% raise for every US household’s income. Related, if the ~$30 trillion hidden in tax havens by the .01% have $10-$15 trillion from Americans, and we count the Federal Reserve report that the US top seven banks have over $10 trillion stored, then the average US household could clawback ~$200,000 to ~$250,000. Famous Americans already on record for these reforms: Thomas Edison, Henry Ford, and Thomas Jefferson, President Andrew Jackson, famous inventor Peter Cooper, New York City Mayor John Hylan, two House of Representatives Banking Committee Chairs, Benjamin Franklin, William Jennings Bryan, Charles Lindbergh Sr., 86% of Great Depression economists, Please understand that I represent likely hundreds of thousands of professionals making factual claims with objective evidence anyone with a high school-level of education can verify. The Emperor’s New Clothes obvious pathway out of these mechanics of our “debt system” is to start creating debt-free money (a positive number) for the direct payment of public goods and services, and create public credit for at-cost loans (a negative number). I have three academic papers to walk any reader through these facts; an assignment for high school economics students, one for Advanced Placement Macroeconomics students, and a paper for the Claremont Colleges’ recent academic conference: Teaching critical thinking to high school students: Economics research/presentation Debt-damned economics: either learn monetary reform, or kiss your assets goodbye Seizing an alternative: Bankster looting: fundamental fraud that “debt” is “money” Let’s examine just some of the facts of the current US economy that demonstrates its criminal status: We’ve already documented how the global so-called “elite” 1% are now wealthier than the 99% while ~30,000 children die daily from preventable poverty in gruesomely-slow agony. Just 62 people on Earth own more than the bottom 50%. The US .1% own more than the bottom 90%. The top 20 Americans (.000006%) own more than the bottom 50%. The top three public benefits of monetary and banking reform would add ~$1,000,000 to every US household. The lies of omission and commission by US “leaders” with legal fiduciary responsibility to communicate full and transparent economic data to never advise Americans of these options is a massive crime causing damages in the trillions of dollars yearly. Our current system of creating what we use for money as debt has the so-called “developed” and “former” colonial nations $50 trillion in debt, and lying for public austerity rather than admit the option of monetary and banking reforms. For Americans still zombiefied to “believe” in America, please embrace the reality that 40% of US children live at least one year of their lives in under-measured poverty, while oligarchs most responsible literally laugh in grandiose glee of the poverty they euphemise as “income inequality.” Please absorb this 1-minute reality check: John Perkins’ 2-minutes of context as an illustration of what the US rogue state executes: More game-changing economic data that confirm what we receive for economic leadership is literal criminal fraud: decaying infrastructure getting uglier from “deferred maintenance,” real unemployment near 25% with most families demanding both parents work longer and longer hours, real inflation well above official reports, US poverty of 20% among children, 40% for living at least a year in poverty, 72% of California students in schools with over half the children classified as “socio-economically disadvantaged,” the annual interest payment of ~$450 billion for the US national debt is over four times the amount needed to invest for ending all forms of global poverty (~$100 billion/year for ~10 years). a rigged-casino economy designed for “peak inequality,” “too big to fail” banks demand public subsidies (so-called “bailouts”) while gambling with over $200 TRILLION in derivatives, these “too big to fail/jail” banks deriving most of their income from subsidies and apparent market manipulations, Daily and never-ending Orwellian criminal-complicit lies of corporate media. US college Class of 2015 students average $35,000 in debt, with the total for 2015 graduates nearly $70 billion: more than ten times the amount from just 20 years ago. The average time to pay this debt is now 15 years (think paying until age 40). half of US 25-year-olds live with their parents, more than twice the number from 15 years ago. Over one million US college students are “Sugar babies”: selling sex as part-time employment. The UK has the same condition (here, here). 31% of US adjunct professors live in poverty. 15-minute video of obvious solutions: Mark Anielski and Ellen Brown’s powerful 15-minute response to an interview at the Seizing an Alternative conference (and here, with videos here) with former World Bank economist Herman Daly and co-author John B. Cobb of For the Common Good (video should start at 1:04:43): 81-minute interview with Byron Dale and Greg Soderberg of WealthMoney.org (the three of us have combined over 90 years of research on this topic): Solutions beyond monetary reform and public banking A 1-minute glimpse (full documentaries here and here, among many) into available technology we have today (and here) for architecture, transportation, and beauty that are cheaper and far more efficient than today’s designs, that should be fully tested in at least one pilot project with connected facts fully communicated to Americans (and never will be as long as corporate media is a tool of existing rogue-state wanna-be dictators): I wrote about Labor Day in 2014 being an Orwellian “holiday” because: US “leaders” psychopathically pretend to care about American labor while lying about a real unemployment rate of close to 25% (the so-called “official” rate excludes under-employed and discouraged workers). If we compare “apples to apples” with the term unemployment (and here) counted the same way as during the Great Depression, the last eight years’ of US unemployment being between 20% and 25% is worse than the worst of the Great Depression by an average of ~4%. Please read the above sentence again to fully feel the tragic-comic reality of US labor today. Unemployment is a cruel and parasitic practice to keep people as work animals by having the employed serve a .01% rogue state empire in relative satisfaction that “at least I have a job,” rather than the alternative of poverty-murder that kills ~1,000,000 human beings every month in gruesome, excruciating slow-motion in ongoing Crimes Against Humanity. All willing could have living-wage employment if we fully invested in the best infrastructure available (consider this as the best showcase-modeling I find). People are welcome to work in the free market as they do now, and that said, government can become the employer of last resort for hard and soft infrastructure investment. This provides triple benefits for employment, the best infrastructure we can imagine, and falling overall prices to the extent infrastructure investment contributes more economic output relative to costs of inputs. History demonstrates infrastructure investment does reduce overall prices in the current debt-funded model that typically adds ~50% of the projects’ nominal cost to its total cost. Monetary reform with infrastructure means the cost of debt-funding disappears, making this employment even more attractive. Additional anticipated benefits are reductions of crime and other social costs related to human despair as people see and participate in creating a brighter future for all. Endnotes: 1) Of $60 trillion total debt, a conservative current interest cost of 5% is $3 trillion every year. Two trillion dollars of savings if the profits are transferred to the American public rather than to the banking industry is probably low. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO 2) The US GDP is ~$17 trillion. Three percent growth is moderately conservative. 3) Of the US Federal government’s ~$4 trillion annual budget, about $1.7 trillion is received from income tax. 4) Tax Foundation. Hodge, S, Moody, J, Warcholik, W. The Rising Cost of Complying with the Federal Income Tax. Jan. 10, 2006: http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/1281.html ** Note: I make all factual assertions as a National Board Certified Teacher of US Government, Economics, and History, with all economics factual claims receiving zero refutation since I began writing in 2008 among Advanced Placement Macroeconomics teachers on our discussion board, public audiences of these articles, and international conferences. I invite readers to empower their civic voices with the strongest comprehensive facts most important to building a brighter future. I challenge professionals, academics, and citizens to add their voices for the benefit of all Earth’s inhabitants. ** Carl Herman is a National Board Certified Teacher of US Government, Economics, and History; also credentialed in Mathematics. He worked with both US political parties over 18 years and two UN Summits with the citizen’s lobby, RESULTS, for US domestic and foreign policy to end poverty. He can be reached at Carl_Herman@post.harvard.edu Note: Examiner.com has blocked public access to my articles on their site (and from other whistleblowers), so some links in my previous work are blocked. If you’d like to search for those articles other sites may have republished, use words from the article title within the blocked link. Or, go to http://archive.org/web/, paste the expired link into the box, click “Browse history,” then click onto the screenshots of that page for each time it was screen-shot and uploaded to webarchive. I’ll update as “hobby time” allows; including my earliest work from 2009 to 2011 (blocked author pages: here, here). ** ‘It’s a Wonderful Lie’: 9-minute ‘It’s a Wonderful Life’ analysis of Federal Reserve fraud to call debt-creation as ‘money supply;’ with OBVIOUS solutions worth $1,000,000 per average US household whenever ‘We the People’ are willing to look, learn, speak-up was originally published on Washington's Blog24 Dec
Crisis of Meaning = Crisis of Work - Allow me to connect two apparently unconnected dots. Dot #1: The last sugar plantation in Hawaii is closing down, ending more than a century of plantation life in the 50th state. Dot #2: a new study found that Nearly 95% of all new jobs during Obama era were part-time, or contract. The research by economists Lawrence Katz of Harvard University and Alan Krueger at Princeton University shows that the proportion of workers throughout the U.S., during the Obama era, who were working in these kinds of temporary jobs, increased from 10.7% of the population to 15.8%. Krueger, a former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, was surprised by the finding. The disappearance of conventional full-time work, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. work, has hit every demographic. “Workers seeking full-time, steady work have lost,” said Krueger. While it’s tempting to dismiss the plantation economy as corporate exploitation–a blatant reality in the early decades–once the I.L.W.U. represented the labor force, a more benign version emerged. Indeed, what is striking is the nostalgia of the workers and residents for the orderly, secure life of the plantations. I attended high school in a classic plantation town in 1969-70, Lanai City, owned by Dole Pineapple, my summer employer. Housing was cheap, work was plentiful and secure, and any married couple with plantation jobs could save enough to send their kids to college: my classmates are living proof of this. The plantation town was not just a work place–it was a community. In the old days, bathrooms and showers were communal in sugar camps. You didn’t just wave to your neighbor from your car–you shared the communal bath house. People were poor by today’s standards, so why do people remember the plantation life fondly? The answer is simple: community, purpose, sacrifice and meaning. These are not independent dynamics–they are interwoven. Work provided purpose and meaning, and the sacrifices made for the betterment of the next generation provides a second layer of meaning. The stable, secure community offered what every human seeks: shared purpose and friendship. Compare this world with the insecure, isolated, atomized existence of the temporary worker in an economy that is changing fast in profound ways. Shared purpose–are you kidding? As Gustavo Tanaka observed in his essay There is something extraordinary happening in the world: “No one can stand the (standard) employment model any longer. We are reaching our limits. People working with big corporations can’t stand their jobs. The lack of purpose knocks on your door as if it came from inside you like a yell of despair. People want out. They want to drop everything. Take a look on how many people are willing to risk entrepreneurship, people leaving on sabbaticals, people with work-related depression, people in burnout.” Community? People move constantly to either move up financially or to chase work. Stability is rare, ditto lasting friendship. Everything in the work world is contingent, ephemeral, and so is everything that once flowed from work: friendship, shared purpose, community. The world of work has changed, and the rate of change is increasing. Despite the hopes of those who want to turn back the clock to the golden era of high-paying, low-skilled manufacturing jobs and an abundance of secure service-sector jobs,history doesn’t have a reverse gear ™. The world of work is never going back to the “good old days” of 1955, 1965, 1985 or 1995. Those hoping for history to reverse gears place their faith in these wishful-thinking fantasies: 1. That automation will create more jobs than it destroys because that’s what happened in the 1st and 2nd Industrial Revolutions. The wishful thinkers expect the Digital / 4th Industrial Revolution to follow suite, but it won’t: previous technological revolutions generated tens of millions of new low-skill jobs to replace the low-skill jobs that were lost to technology. Millions of farm laborers moved to the factory floor in the 1st Industrial Revolution, and then millions of displaced factory workers moved to sales and clerk jobs in the 2nd Industrial Revolution. Even white-collar jobs that supposedly required a college degree could be learned in a matter of hours, days or at most weeks, and little effort was required to stay current. The Digital/4th Industrial Revolution is not creating tens of millions of low-skill jobs, and it never will. Even worse for the wishful thinking crowd, the 4th Digital Revolution is eating tech jobs along with the full spectrum of service-sector jobs. Those expecting to replace low-skill service jobs with armies of coders will be disappointed, because coding is itself being automated. The new jobs that are being created are few in number and highly demanding.Jobs are no longer strictly traditional boss-employee; the real growth is in peer-to-peer collaboration and what I term hybrid work performed by Mobile Creatives (see below), workers with highly developed technical/ creative/ social skillsets who are comfortable working with rapidly changing technologies, who enjoy constant learning and are highly adaptive. The work that is being created in the Digital/4th Industrial Revolution is contingent and thus insecure. The only security that is attainable in fast-changing environments is the security offered by broad-based skillsets, adaptability, a voracious appetite for new learning and a keenly developed set of “soft skills”: communication, collaboration, self-management, etc. I cover all this in depth in my book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy. The problem is the number of these jobs is far smaller than the number of jobs that will be eaten by software, AI and robotics. the number of workers who can transition productively to this far more demanding and insecure work environment is also much smaller than the workforce displaced by software/robotics. In short, we need a new system to provide work, purpose and meaning; wishful thinking isn’t a solution. 2. The wishful thinkers want strong corporate profits to prop up their stock market and pension funds, but they don’t want corporations to do what is necessary to reap strong profits, i.e. move production of commoditized goods, services and sales channels overseas and replace human labor with cheaper automation. You can’t have it both ways. Wishful thinkers choose to ignore the reality that roughly half of all U.S. based global corporate sales and profits are reaped overseas. It makes zero financial sense to pay a U.S. worker $25/hour, and pay the insanely expensive costs of sickcare/”healthcare” in the U.S. when the work can be done closer to the actual markets for the goods and services at a fraction of the cost. Memo to all the armchair wishful thinkers: if you want to compete globally with a high-cost U.S. work force and no automation, be my guest. Put your own money and time at risk and go make it happen. Go hire people at top dollar and provide full benefits, and then go out and make big profits in the global marketplace. The armchair pundits and ivory tower academics would quickly lose their shirts and come back broke. That’s why they wouldn’t dare risk their own security, capital and time doing what they demand of others. 3. The wishful thinkers decry the lack of “good-paying” jobs yet they refuse to look at the reasons why employing people in the traditional boss/employee hierarchy no longer makes sense. The armchair pundits and ivory tower academics have never hired even one person with their own money. These protected privileged are living in a fantasy-world of academia, think tanks and foundations, where workers are paid with state money, grants, venture capital, etc. Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege. As I have often noted here, Immanuel Wallerstein listed the systemic reasons why labor overhead costs will continue to rise even as wages stagnate. This means employers see total labor costs rising even if wages go nowhere: it gets more and more expensive to hire workers. Why I Will Never Hire Anyone, Even at $1/Hour (November 10, 2015) Then there’s the staggering burden of liability in a litigious society, the costs of training and supervising ill-prepared employees and the hard-to-calculate costs of increasingly complex regulations. 4. Wishful thinkers claim we can solve the decline of the traditional work model with more education. This is also wishful thinking, as not only is the “factory model” of our higher education failing to produce workers with the requisite range of skills, the emphasis on higher education has produced an over-supply of people with college diplomas. We need an entirely new model of education, one in which we accredit the student, not the institution, a model I describe in The Nearly Free University and the Emerging Economy: The Revolution in Higher Education. An over-abundance of credentials pushes wages down, even for the highly educated. In the real world, even wages of the most highly educated are stagnating. The structural changes in the world of work are visible in these charts: The civilian participation rate is plummeting, despite the “recovery:” The civilian participation rate for men is in a multi-decade decline: As a percentage of GDP, wages have been declining for decades. Self-employment is the wellspring of entrepreneurs and small business. As you can see, it has also been declining for decades. It’s time to get real. Wishful thinking is not a solution. We need a new system for creating paid work, shared purpose and meaning, and I propose a complete, practical alternative system in my book A Radically Beneficial World: Automation, Technology and Creating Jobs for All. If you’re seeking the source of the epidemics of ill-health, prescription drug addiction and other social ills, look to the absence of meaningful, purposeful work. Of related interest: Fixing The Way We Work (44:54 podcast with Chris Martenson) Radical Changes in Jobs Market Now & in Future (47:37 podcast with Jason Burack) America’s Nine Classes: The New Class Hierarchy (April 29, 2014) The Changing Nature of Middle Class Work (May 8, 2014) International Workers’ Day (May 1) and the New Class: Mobile Creatives (May 1, 2014) Join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Check out both of my new books, Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print) and Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print). For more, please visit the OTM essentials website. Crisis of Meaning = Crisis of Work was originally published on Washington's Blog23 Dec
Star Wars: Lucas wrote a ‘false flag’ historical allegory about US devolution to rogue state empire. It’s true: US ‘leads’ ‘developed’ nations to war-poverty murder ~400 million in last 20 years as most evil government in world history - Star Wars’ Rogue One is a story of rebel leaders’ strategy development to stop a total-evil empire fooling many with “fake news” of bringing “safety and security” to the public after a history of false-flag terrorism (and here). In the story, insiders leak literally explosive data that unfolds to escalating military engagement. 2-minute trailer: Our real world is a story exactly the same of a rogue state empire, but with an option for public awakening to Emperor’s New Clothes facts that could end the empire through lawful arrests of .01% criminal leaders. Edited from what I wrote about Star Wars in 2015: “How do democracies get turned into dictatorships? The democracies aren’t overthrown; they’re given away… Star Wars was really about the Vietnam War.” – George Lucas, creator of Star Wars “The (Star Wars) Empire is like America ten years from now.” – George Lucas, 1973 Adjusted for inflation, Star Wars is likely the most popular film series in history. Stories are popular because they communicate themes that resonate with the public. Creator George Lucas communicates that a powerful republic is overcome by false flag deception that devolves all into the most evil dictatorial empire possible. “Dictatorship” literally means a government from what is dictated/said whenever government “leadership” says so. The US has lost almost all Constitutional rights to the dictates of “leaders” in government. In contrast, a constitutional republic is limited government acting within its constitution. This is basic high school-level education we all learned, and are demanded to either live or lose. Rome’s empire expanded by always claiming “defensive” wars from such constant “enemies,” and Washington’s Blog documents 53 admitted false flag attacks in history using this same false narrative. David Brennan’s brilliant 13-minute video explains the false flag themes in Star Wars: “So this is how liberty dies: with thunderous applause.” Star Wars character Padme Amidala And consider this 2-minute summary from Revealed Truth: US as most evil empire in Earth’s recorded history People around the world view the US as the greatest threat to peace; voted three times more dangerous than any other country. The data confirm this conclusion: Since WW2, Earth has had 248 armed conflicts. The US started 201 of them. These US-started armed attacks have killed ~30 million and counting; 90% of these deaths are innocent children, the elderly and ordinary working civilian women and men. The US has war-murdered more than Hitler’s Nazis. The total deaths caused by rogue state empire for resource control (natural and human) in the last 20 years is ~400 million, more than all total wars and violence in all recorded Earth history. Lie-started and Orwellian-illegal Wars of Aggression is all the evidence necessary for US military to refuse all war orders (there are no lawful orders for unlawful war), and for officers to arrest those who issue them. This argument extends to all in US law enforcement agencies for war-related crimes of treason, murders and injuries to US military lied-into illegal Wars of Aggression, and .01% military looting last reported at $6.5 trillion. As a professional academic, the most accurate description of the US is rogue state illegal empire. As I explain in hypothetical conversations with George Washington (here, here), the US citizen position seems insufficient to stop the empire without Emperor’s New Clothes recognition among US military and law enforcement that the wars they “serve” are not even close to lawful, and the exact type of armed attacks that US treaties after two world wars were meant to end forever. And again, we now know from official US government documentation that all “reasons” for current US wars were known to false as they were told. There is no responsible action from any informed other than to assert the OBVIOUS: The wars are illegal and must be ended. Those who orchestrated these wars must be put under arrest. Related to looting trillions, there are dozens of related crimes hiding the US rogue state empire that must be revealed and ended. This opens the brighter future we all know is possible from the pure bullshit we now receive under this empire. The Crimes The US is a literal rogue state empire led by neocolonial looting liars. The history is uncontested and taught to anyone taking comprehensive courses. If anyone has any refutations of this professional academic factual claim for any of this easy-to-read and documented content, please provide it. US ongoing lie-started and Orwellian-illegal Wars of Aggression require all US military and government to refuse all war orders because there are no lawful orders for obviously unlawful wars. Officers are required to arrest those who issue obviously unlawful orders. And again, those of us working for this area of justice are aware of zero attempts to refute this with, “War law states (a, b, c), so the wars are legal because (d, e, f).” All we receive is easy-to-reveal bullshit. When Americans are told an election is defined by touching a computer screen without a countable receipt that can be verified, they are being told a criminal lie to allow election fraud. This is self-evident, but Princeton, Stanford, and the President of the American Statistical Association are among the leaders pointing to the obvious (and here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here). Again, no professional would/can argue an election is legitimate when there is nothing for anyone to count. And, duh, corporate media are criminally complicit through constant lies of omission and commission to “cover” all these crimes. Historic tragic-comic empire is only possible through such straight-face lying, making our Emperor’s New Clothes analogy perfectly chosen. The top three benefits each of monetary reform and public banking total ~$1,000,000 for the average American household, and would be received nearly instantly. Please read that twice. Now look to verify for yourself. Demanding arrests as the required and obvious public response rather than ‘voting’ for more disaster: The categories of crime include: Wars of Aggression (the worst crime a nation can commit). Likely treason for lying to US military, ordering unlawful attack and invasions of foreign lands, and causing thousands of US military deaths. Crimes Against Humanity for ongoing intentional policy of poverty that’s killed over 400 million human beings just since 1995 (~75% children; more deaths than from all wars in Earth’s recorded history). Tens of trillions in looting, including $6.5 trillion just reported by the US Department of “Defense” as “lost.” US military, law enforcement, and all with Oaths to support and defend the US Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic, face an endgame choice: Demand arrests, with those with lawful authority to enact it. An arrest is the lawful action to stop apparent crimes, with the most serious crimes documented here meaning the most serious need for arrests. Watch the US escalate its rogue state crimes that annually kill millions, harm billions, and loot trillions. In just 90 seconds, former US Marine Ken O’Keefe powerfully states how you may choose to voice “very obvious solutions”: arrest the criminal leaders (video starts at 20:51, then finishes this episode of Cross Talk): Solutions worth literal tens of trillions to ‘We the People’: Again: The top three benefits each of monetary reform and public banking total ~$1,000,000 for the average American household, and would be received nearly instantly. Please read that twice. Now look to verify for yourself. We can quantify the end of the lie-started and illegal Wars of Aggression quickly into the trillions, and that said, it’s worth a lot more than what we quantify. Truth: a world in which education is expressed in its full potential to only and always begin with good-faith effort for objective, comprehensive, and verifiable data. ** Note: I make all factual assertions as a National Board Certified Teacher of US Government, Economics, and History, with all economics factual claims receiving zero refutation since I began writing in 2008 among Advanced Placement Macroeconomics teachers on our discussion board, public audiences of these articles, and international conferences (and here). I invite readers to empower their civic voices with the strongest comprehensive facts most important to building a brighter future. I challenge professionals, academics, and citizens to add their voices for the benefit of all Earth’s inhabitants. ** Carl Herman is a National Board Certified Teacher of US Government, Economics, and History; also credentialed in Mathematics. He worked with both US political parties over 18 years and two UN Summits with the citizen’s lobby, RESULTS, for US domestic and foreign policy to end poverty. He can be reached at Carl_Herman@post.harvard.edu Note: Examiner.com has blocked public access to my articles on their site (and from other whistleblowers), so some links in my previous work are blocked. If you’d like to search for those articles other sites may have republished, use words from the article title within the blocked link. Or, go to http://archive.org/web/, paste the expired link into the box, click “Browse history,” then click onto the screenshots of that page for each time it was screen-shot and uploaded to webarchive. I’ll update as “hobby time” allows; including my earliest work from 2009 to 2011 (blocked author pages: here, here). Star Wars: Lucas wrote a ‘false flag’ historical allegory about US devolution to rogue state empire. It’s true: US ‘leads’ ‘developed’ nations to war-poverty murder ~400 million in last 20 years as most evil government in world history was originally published on Washington's Blog23 Dec
7 Times The MSM Got Destroyed In A Debate In 2016 - Brandon TurbevilleActivist PostBrandonTurbeville.com With the recent hysteria in the mainstream media over so-called “fake news” and “Russian propaganda,” it is clear that the Western corporate press is lashing out wildly at the threat of the alternative media. Every time the corporate press has put forward a false narrative about Syria, the alternative press has been there to dismantle it. Every time a false flag attack happens to galvanize Americans, the alternative media has been there to expose it. Every time the corporate press chooses to talk about Beyonce instead of massive government scandals, the alternative press has been there to pick up the slack. Thus, it is clear that the alternative media has finally reached the point where it is a major threat to the corporate propaganda operation and the deep state is having to react in order to neutralize it. Hence, we have “fake news” scandals that were entirely manufactured and made up and the reason why unproven claims of Russian propaganda are being reported by actual fake news outlets like CNN, NPR, and the rest as factual. With all that being said, there are increasing numbers of clashes between alternative media journalists and the corporate outlets trying to slander them. When the corporations can slander alt media personalities without response, the propaganda tends to work well enough. However, when faced with an alt media journalist who can respond, the corporate media tends to fall flat on its face every time. Below are some highlights from 2016 where the corporate media clashed with the alt media and got its ass kicked. Enjoy. 1.) Eva Bartlett DESTROYS Mainstream Journalist. Having spent a number of months on the ground in Syria, travelling all across the country and, specifically, Aleppo, journalist Eva Bartlett has finally returned to the Western world with yet another round of firsthand knowledge of the Syrian Crisis. Bartlett has travelled to Syria a number of times, each time carrying back a story widely different from that peddled on the mainstream corporate press of NATO countries. After having left Syria, Bartlett took part in a press conference organized by the Syrian mission to the United Nations. After giving a brief statement about what she has observed in Syria and how she is aware firsthand of the Western media’s deception in terms of coverage of the crisis, she was questioned by a Norwegian journalist, Christopher Rothenberg, who challenged her claims that the Western media was lying. You can see Eva’s epic response here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AisvBNXPdG8 2.) David Icke Clashes With Obnoxious Childish TODAY Show Hosts Icke is always characteristically gracious and patient with mainstream journalists who, over the years, have abused, ridiculed, and mocked everything he says, most times taking it out of context to use against him later. Perhaps after years of mainstream stupidity, Icke seems to have come out ready to fight during his latest tour of corporate news. This interview earns its place on the list because a.) Icke brings the ignorance of the hosts full circle at the end of the program and b.) because the male host was so obviously obnoxious that if Icke had said nothing, the TODAY Show was revealed for being the daily dose of brain-killing entertainment that it is. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiQidnfRWk83.) Eva Bartlett Destroys Mainstream Pundit On Syria Ceasefire Question Although RT is not what one would consider “mainstream” in the U.S., the debate most certainly involved a mainstream academic, Stephen Zunes of the University of San Francisco as well as Eva Bartlett and historian Gareth Porter. Early on the in the debate, Zunes began reciting his training that there are many “moderate” terrorists and that the Syrian military was responsible for untold amounts of dead civilians. Eva jumps in shortly after and dumps a bucket of cold water on Zunes’ regurgitation of State Department and mainstream propaganda lines. After only a few moments of debate with Bartlett, Zunes becomes more and more frustrated and visibly irate, making gestures and becoming restless throughout the debate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpgTLd9oEzE 4.) Jesse Ventura Defends Gary Johnson, Opposes The Drug War, Praises Putin On Yahoo! News What would a list of confrontational interviews be like without Jesse Ventura? In this interview, the host is obviously pushing an anti-Russia propaganda line and attempts to push this line on Ventura. Wrong move. The only bad thing about Ventura’s interviews with mainstream propagandists is that there aren’t enough of them. Perhaps the MSM is a bit frightened? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwcwXUnBp_k https://www.yahoo.com/news/jesse-ventura-gary-johnson-trump-clinton-putin-201929441.html 5.) Vanessa Beeley and Daniel McAdams destroy Brent Budowsky in RT debate. Brent Budowsky has been making the rounds for a few years now promoting the war in Syria and, now that the word has come down the pike to attack the Russians, doing that as well. Faced with debating Vanessa Beeley, who has travelled to Syria a number of times and has personal, eyewitness testimony regarding the situation on the ground, Budowsky could only rely on rhetoric and shouting to stay in the debate. Beeley and McAdams could rest assured they had won the debate when Budowsky started yelling “dead Syrian civilians!!!” and “dead babies!!!!” at the top of his lungs over and over again, curiously asking Beeley if she’d ever interviewed any of the “dead Syrian babies” that he claims Assad killed. We are not sure how Beeley could interview a dead baby but we are sure that she won the debate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1ia7AsXFsc 6.) Eva Bartlett Deals Strongly With Dilly Hussain, Terrorist Supporter Based In The UK To his credit, Hussain has been Eva’s most formidable opponent yet. But it only took 3 minutes into the program before Hussain starts screaming that Eva is a “Russian agent” and “conspiracy theorist.” Hussain did his best to over-talk and shout down Bartlett before she firmly silenced him. Despite the fact that every time Hussain put forward as much propaganda and rhetoric as he possibly could, Bartlett followed behind him and completely eviscerated him. Finally, after calling him out on what she labels his “Zionist strategy,” Hussain manages to insult the RT host into a debate over whether or not he is pushing Russian propaganda. It’s a valiant effort on the part of Hussain but, ultimately, a slow burn and crash at the end. Toward the end of the program, Hussain is left looking like schoolyard bully who has just been beaten up in front of the class. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JFEmCKHVME 7.) David Icke Calmly Rips Apart The Propaganda of Andrew Neil, Liz Kendall, Michael Portillo on BBC. Not his most confrontational interview here but Icke walks calmly through all Neil’s attempts at making his “conspiracies” look ridiculous. Each time Neil throws out a snide question to Icke, David avoids the mine field and manages to bring out a staggering amount of truth in the time he has to speak. The program concludes with Andrew Neil saying that, in his lifetime, everything has always been investigated and has turned out alright. Right Neil. Everything is fine. Nothing to worry about here. If you know of any other moments like this, feel free to include them in the comments. Brandon Turbeville – article archive here – is the author of seven books, Codex Alimentarius — The End of Health Freedom, 7 Real Conspiracies, Five Sense Solutions and Dispatches From a Dissident, volume 1 and volume 2, The Road to Damascus: The Anglo-American Assault on Syria, and The Difference it Makes: 36 Reasons Why Hillary Clinton Should Never Be President. Turbeville has published over 850 articles on a wide variety of subjects including health, economics, government corruption, and civil liberties. Brandon Turbeville’s radio show Truth on The Tracks can be found every Monday night 9 pm EST at UCYTV. His website is BrandonTurbeville.com He is available for radio and TV interviews. Please contact activistpost (at) gmail.com. This article may be freely shared in part or in full with author attribution and source link. 7 Times The MSM Got Destroyed In A Debate In 2016 was originally published on Washington's Blog23 Dec
Syria Ambassador Reveals Names Of Alleged Western/Saudi/GCC Intelligence Agents Trapped In East Aleppo - Brandon TurbevilleActivist Post While the United States has harped for over five years about the “humanitarian crisis” and manufactured Syrian government “crimes against humanity,” the recent hysteria over “civilians” trapped in East Aleppo has really taken the cake. Now, however, after hearing about how Assad has “barrel bombed,” “tortured,” “burned alive,” and otherwise maimed civilians in East Aleppo (who are themselves committing mass suicide to evade Syrian government forces according to mainstream outlets), the real reason for the increase in hysteria has finally come to light. The real reason for America’s concern is not because of civilians at all or even because of their terrorist proxies who will soon be totally annihilated in East Aleppo. It is because their own intelligence officers are stuck in East Aleppo, completely surrounded by Syrian military forces, and their capture will not only weaken the Western operation in the country, it will reveal to the world what most already know – that the U.S. and its allies are working hand-in-glove with the terrorists it claims are moderates. This is precisely what Syria’s ambassador to the United Nations, Dr. Bashar al-Ja’afari, stated when he released the names of these intelligence officers in an address before reporters at the U.N. After a sarcastic remark about how the operatives were “nice people,” a reporter asked about the list of intelligence operatives. Ja’afari then again sarcastically corrected her by saying “No. No. They are Syrian moderate opposition. Genetically modified.” Ambassador Ja’afari then announced that not only were the operatives still in East Aleppo but that he would read their names and their nationalities for the world to hear. He was clear that the intelligence operatives were working with the terrorist groups and attempting to exit East Aleppo. The list is as follows: Mu’tazz Oghlikaan-Oghlu (Turkish) David Scott Winner (American) David Shlomo Aram (Israeli) Muhammad Shaykh Al-Islaami Al-Tameemi (Qatari) Muhammad Ahmad Al-Sibyaan (Saudi Arabian) ‘Abdul-Mun’im Fahd Al-Hurayj (Saudi) Ahmad bin Nawfal Al-Durayj (Saudi) Muhammad Hassan Al-Subay’iy (Saudi) Qaasim Sa’ad Al-Shammari (Saudi intelligence agent) Ayman Qaasim Al-Tha’aalibi (Saudi intelligence agent) Ahmad Al-Tayaraawi (Jordanian intelligence agent) Muhammad Al-Shaafi’iy Al-Idreesi (Moroccan intelligence agent) “This is why you saw this hysterical move in this council for the last three days,” Ja’afari said. “Because the main purpose is how to rescue these terrorists, foreigners, intelligence officers, from the same countries who pushed for the adoption of the resolution, out of Aleppo.” He then stated that the intentions of the Syrian government were to arrest these individuals and show them to the world. Ziad Fadel of Syrian Perspective writes that Ja’afari has only named the tip of the iceberg and that his sources say there are 10 more Americans, 2 British, French, and Moroccan intelligence agents still in East Aleppo. Syper’s information was proven correct regarding the intelligence agents named by Ja’afari. Brandon Turbeville – article archive here – is the author of seven books, Codex Alimentarius — The End of Health Freedom, 7 Real Conspiracies, Five Sense Solutions and Dispatches From a Dissident, volume 1 andvolume 2, The Road to Damascus: The Anglo-American Assault on Syria, and The Difference it Makes: 36 Reasons Why Hillary Clinton Should Never Be President. Turbeville has published over 850 articles on a wide variety of subjects including health, economics, government corruption, and civil liberties. Brandon Turbeville’s radio show Truth on The Tracks can be found every Monday night 9 pm EST at UCYTV. His website is BrandonTurbeville.com He is available for radio and TV interviews. Please contact activistpost (at) gmail.com. This article may be freely shared in part or in full with author attribution and source link. Syria Ambassador Reveals Names Of Alleged Western/Saudi/GCC Intelligence Agents Trapped In East Aleppo was originally published on Washington's Blog23 Dec
Russian Ambassador Killed Three Days After Obama Threat – Who Is Responsible? - Brandon TurbevilleActivist Post Three days after Barack Obama issued a veiled threat toward the Russians suggesting some type of “retaliation” for the unproven claims that the Russians somehow influenced or “hacked” American elections, the Russian Ambassador to Turkey, Andrei Karlov, was shot dead in Ankara, Turkey as he was giving a talk at an art gallery there. The gunman was identified as a former Turkish police officer named Mevlut Mert Altintas. CNN reported early on that he was off-duty at the time but Turkish officials have left this detail open-ended so it is unclear whether or not he was truly on duty. According to a CNN report, The longtime diplomat had begun to speak when Altintas, wearing a dark suit tie, fired shots in rapid succession, according to multiple witness accounts. The ambassador fell to the floor. The gunman circled his body, visibly agitated as he smashed photos hanging on the wall, said Associated Press photographer Burhan Ozbilici, who captured the incident. “Allahu akbar (God is greatest). Do not forget Aleppo! Do not forget Syria! Do not forget Aleppo! Do not forget Syria!” Altintas is heard shouting in video of the incident. “Only death will remove me from here. Everyone who has taken part in this oppression will one by one pay for it,” he said. This much can be seen in a number of videos circulating around the internet, including this one by al-Jazeera. Altintas gave his speech while holding one finger in the air, a symbol of terrorists operating in Syria representing their twisted understanding of the oneness of God. A Russian investigative team has been dispatched to Turkey to analyze the details of the incident. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated, “The important thing is to understand who is behind this crime,” he said. “We are convinced that the main goal of those who planned this barbaric act [is] to undermine the process of normalization of relations between Russia and Turkey, largely in order to prevent an effective fight against terrorism in Syria. This goal is futile. It will not work.” Lavrov is perhaps right to point out that the goal of the attack was to harm Russian/Turkish relations. However, the attack may very well have been a message in a most direct fashion coming from the United States. After all, U.S. policymakers, Senators, and even the President himself have repeatedly threatened Russia with “retaliation” over the unproven claims of “hacking.” Three days after the threats and the Russian Ambassador is assassinated. While this isn’t hard proof of American involvement, the motive clearly exists and the timing is certainly questionable. Consider the words of Obama himself when, in an interview with NPR, he said: “I think there is no doubt that when any foreign government tries to impact the integrity of our elections … we need to take action,” Obama said. “And we will – at a time and place of our own choosing. “Some of it may be explicit and publicised; some of it may not be.” Other Western media mouthpieces have speculated as to what this “retaliation” might be such as: Cyberattack on Russian networks or infrastructure; Release damaging information about Vladimir Putin; Target offshore accounts; Place malware inside Russian espionate networks; Interfere in Russian politics Economic sanctions. But, according to outlets like the New York Times citing sources within the US’s foreign policy circles, the ability of the United States to successfully pull off a major cyberattack is not as realistic as one might think. For instance, the NYT writes, But while Mr. Obama vowed on Friday to “send a clear message to Russia” as both a punishment and a deterrent, some of the options were rejected as ineffective, others as too risky. If the choices had been better, one of the aides involved in the debate noted recently, the president would have acted by now. However, as Tony Cartalucci expertly states, The cold-blooded assassination of a Russian ambassador in the heart of Turkey, however, is a very effective “retaliation,” not only for Russia’s role in balancing against the Western media’s influence, effectively undermining the West’s monopoly over global public perception, but also for confounding US geopolitical objectives across the Middle East – particularly in Syria, and particularly in the aftermath of Aleppo’s liberation. The assassination – a crime and even an act of war by any account – was apparently carried out by a militant drawn from the ranks of terrorist organizations armed, trained, and funded by the United States and its regional allies, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and even Turkey. And despite this fact, should the US be involved in the assassination, it would be difficult to prove. And even if it was proven, it would be difficult to convince the global public that the US would make the jump from very publicly considering benign “cyberattacks” for the past week to assassinating a foreign diplomat. Beyond simply “sending a message” as US policymakers sought to do – it also undermines alleged progress made between Ankara and Moscow regarding the former’s role in the ongoing proxy war with Syria. The assassination strains any such progress, even threatening to rollback gains painfully made since Turkey’s downing of a Russian warplane over Syria in November of 2015. While evidence is still forthcoming regarding the assassination, the US – through its own insistence on publicly and repeatedly threatening Moscow with retaliation – has made itself one of the primary suspects behind the brutal killing. Considering the US’ role in creating, arming, funding, and directing terrorists across the region for years – the US is responsible indirectly at the very least. While relations seemed to have warmed a bit between Russia and Turkey over the past several months, the fact is that the madman Erdogan is still very much in the pocket of the United States and NATO machine that goaded Turkey into supporting terrorists and the war on Syria from the start. With this in mind, it is the responsibility of Turkey to provide security for the Russian ambassador, a perfect window of opportunity if one were complicit in the assassination conspiracy to begin with. In addition, it is important to point out that the gunman was immediately shot to death inside the art gallery. While it is not unreasonable to fire on an armed man that has just committed murder and expressing a desire to possibly commit another, it is also convenient for those privy to the conspiracy that the assassin is dead and unable to tell tales. Indeed, if the killer truly has acted on his own, purely out of fanaticism and devotion to jihad, then the United States still bears part of the blame since the U.S. has been one of the greatest forces for encouraging the proliferation of radical jihadism across the world and stoking up hatred against Russia. That the twain should meet eventually is certainly within the realm of possibility. Also within the realm of possibility, however, is that the U.S. leadership is so utterly insane that it might very well risk World War III in order to “send a message” to the Russians to back off and allow it to finish off Syria, a plan it has failed to bring together for nearly five years.Brandon Turbeville – article archive here – is the author of seven books, Codex Alimentarius — The End of Health Freedom, 7 Real Conspiracies, Five Sense Solutions and Dispatches From a Dissident, volume 1 andvolume 2, The Road to Damascus: The Anglo-American Assault on Syria, and The Difference it Makes: 36 Reasons Why Hillary Clinton Should Never Be President. Turbeville has published over 850 articles on a wide variety of subjects including health, economics, government corruption, and civil liberties. Brandon Turbeville’s radio show Truth on The Tracks can be found every Monday night 9 pm EST at UCYTV. His website is BrandonTurbeville.com He is available for radio and TV interviews. Please contact activistpost (at) gmail.com. This article may be freely shared in part or in full with author attribution and source link. Russian Ambassador Killed Three Days After Obama Threat – Who Is Responsible? was originally published on Washington's Blog23 Dec
The U.S. Presidency: How Important Is Hillary’s 2,864,974 Popular-Vote Win? - California alone accounted for all of Hillary’s popular-vote win, plus 1,405,004 votes. Eric Zuesse, originally posted at strategic-culture.org America’s Electoral College — the publicly elected representatives who select the U.S. President — voted on Monday, December 19th, and chose Donald Trump as America’s next President, though Hillary Clinton had won nearly three million more of the nation’s popular votes on November 8th than he did. (The Electoral College vote was 304 Trump, to 227 Clinton.) Here was the top of the homepage of the anti-Trump (and anti-Russia) Huffington Post, in America, on Monday night, December 19th, focusing on Hillary Clinton’s having won more people’s votes than Trump did: How significant is it that Ms. Clinton had won the votes of more Americans, but Mr. Trump has won the votes of more Electors? Here are the relevant facts, by which to understand this: In some respects, the United States of America is a federal system, not a unitary state system. The U.S. Constitution established the nation that way, and it remains in effect to this day. The Electoral College chooses the nation’s President, and it consists of Electors who represent their individual states, but it’s constructed according to a formula (for weighting each state’s influence in selecting a President) that apportions the number of Electors so as to correlate rather closely with each given state’s population. Thus, the Electoral College is partly a unitary-state system (one-person-one-vote), and partly a federal-state system (each state having different-sized delegations in the Electoral College, depending upon each state’s population-size). America’s by-far largest state, California, accounts, all on its own, for the entirety of Hillary Clinton’s popular-vote victory — and more besides. Her win of the U.S. popular vote was two-thirds the size of her win of the California popular-vote. The one state of California accounts for 1.49 times her win of the national vote. California accounted for all of her 2,864,974 national-vote win, plus an additional 1,405,004 votes. Figures here are from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016, as of 19 December 2016: Hillary’s California victory-margin over Trump:  CA 4,269,978 Hillary’s nationwide popular-vote victory-margin:  U.S. 2,864,974 Hillary’s nationwide 2% win by 2,864,974 votes would have been a nationwide loss by 1,405,002 votes, if she had won California by 50%+1 vote, to 50%-1 for Trump. Instead, she won California by 61.73%, to 31.62%. (Furthermore, in the Electoral College, almost all states have established a winner-take-all-rule, so that, for example, “all 55 of California’s Electoral votes go to the winner of the state election, even if the margin of victory is only 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent” — in other words, she didn’t win any more Electoral College votes from her 61.73% California landslide win than she would have won by a bare 50%+1 win of California). Hillary’s 4,269,978-vote win of California was 1.49 times — 49% larger than — her nationwide 2,864,974-vote win. In addition, Hillary also scored big wins in three other big liberal states: NY, IL, and MA. The following 3 states total to  3,592,220 votes: NY 1,702,792 IL   944,714 MA   904,303 The grand total of the 4 states (NY, IL, MA, and CA): 7,862,198 But, even if Hillary had won those three states by only around 50-50, her 4,269,978-vote edge over Trump in CA would still have been 4,269,978 – 3,592,220 = 677,758 popular votes more than Trump in these four mega-liberal states together (as compared to her actual win there of 7,862,198 popular votes). That would have switched 7,862,198 – 677,758 = 7,184,440 of her votes to Trump, and so he still would have won clearly the popular vote. He and she wouldn’t have done any differently in the Electoral College than they have, in fact, done, but Trump would have scored a huge win in the nationwide popular vote — a much bigger win in the popular vote than Hillary has, in fact, won.  If the nation had violated the Constitution and handed Ms. Clinton the win due to her 2,864,974 popular-vote victory, then it would have been handing the entire Presidency to the winner of the biggest state, and written off all the rest of the United States — where Clinton lost overwhelmingly. Fortunately, that didn’t happen.  The evidence therefore shows that Trump won the Presidency by strategizing strictly upon the basis of the U.S. Constitution, and not — as Hillary evidently did — at least partly upon the national popularity-contest. He devoted his resources to the key toss-up states, and ignored the states — including CA, NY, IL, and MA — where the polling showed that his campaigning would be an utter waste of his time and money. The four mega-liberal states — New York, California, Illinois, and Massachusetts — happen also to be America’s four national-‘news’-media centers; and, so, this reality, and Trump’s win of the election (the Electoral College), naturally strikes many in the national press (such as the owners of the Huffington Post) as being wildly at variance with their ‘rational’ expectations, because those people aren’t so intelligent, and they reason upon the basis of mental structures different from the reality. (Maybe they’re also stupid enough to believe her campaign-rhetoric even though it contrasted sharply with her actual decisions and policies as a government-official.) Furthermore, they’re wildly out-of-touch with the pain throughout the rest of the country, and they accept the aristocracy’s false analysis of its causes and of its solutions (the cause isn’t bigotry against women, minorities, etc.; it’s their own bigotry against the poor — of any group); so, they think that Hillary was ‘obviously’ better than Trump, and can’t imagine that she’s worse (or even worse, if Trump too is bad) than Trump. This blindness-to-reality enables the ‘news’ media to support vigorously the Democratic Party’s attempts to de-legitimize Trump as President. They believe strongly in the aristocracy’s ideology (that the barrier to equality-of-opportunity is more an ethnic bigotry than it is a class-bigotry) and so they continue to obsess upon ethnicity, gender, etc., even after the past year’s political results, both in the U.S. and in Europe, are showing how divorced from the reality, they actually are. This explains why the owners of America’s ‘news’ media tend to be both perplexed and angry that Hillary Clinton (whose basic campaign theme was that there is no class-problem in America, but only many different bigotry-problems) lost this election. ————— Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity. The U.S. Presidency: How Important Is Hillary’s 2,864,974 Popular-Vote Win? was originally published on Washington's Blog22 Dec

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